NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, April 3rd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Last three national title games had similar small spreads to tonight; underdogs won all three. North Carolina lost the national title game at the buzzer last year; they’ve waited a year for tonight, but PG Berry has a bum ankle and isn’t near 100% (2-14 from floor vs Oregon, 6-26 in last two games). Tar Heels are 17-2 outside the ACC, losing to Indiana-Kentucky in December. Gonzaga’s only loss was to BYU at home on Senior Night; Bulldogs are 7-0 vs top 20 teams, with wins over Florida/Iowa St/Arizona- they’re #134 experience team that plays pace #77. Carolina is #107 experience team that plays pace #42. UNC is #1 offensive rebounding team in country (41.7% of their misses) but Zags are #47 in country on defensive boards. My pick? North Carolina by 5 and the over.
Armadillosports.com
N CAROLINA (32 - 7) vs. GONZAGA (37 - 1) - 4/3/2017, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
N CAROLINA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GONZAGA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games this season.
GONZAGA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
GONZAGA is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
GONZAGA is 145-104 ATS (+30.6 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
GONZAGA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
N CAROLINA is 293-241 ATS (+27.9 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
GONZAGA vs. NORTH CAROLINA
No trends available
North Carolina is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
StatFox Super Situations
N CAROLINA at GONZAGA
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (N CAROLINA) team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite 23-5 over the last 5 seasons. ( 82.1% | 17.5 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
N CAROLINA at GONZAGA
Play Against - Any team (GONZAGA) hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a winning record 829-1218 over the last 5 seasons. ( 40.5% | -92.6 units ) 161-271 this year. ( 37.3% | -67.1 units )
N CAROLINA at GONZAGA
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 in a tournament game 308-194 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.4% | 94.6 units ) 78-58 this year. ( 57.4% | 14.2 units )
UNC, Gonzaga play for championship
By: StatFox.com
North Carolina and Gonzaga battle it out for the National Championship on Monday.
North Carolina might never be able to get over a buzzer beating loss to Villanova in last year’s championship, but a win on Monday would certainly help. The Tar Heels have yet another shot to win it all, and that’s pretty impressive after making it to the finals last year. North Carolina will be the more battle-tested team in this one, as the Tar Heels have had a tougher road to this point. The best-seeded team that Gonzaga faced in this tournament was #4 West Virginia, but North Carolina defeated both #2 Kentucky and #3 Oregon. The Tar Heels won those games by a total of three points, so they’ll also know what it’s like to really squeeze victories out. Gonzaga, meanwhile, has won each of its past two games by an average of 14.0 PPG. It is, however, unfair to blame the Bulldogs for not playing closer games. They’re as talented a team as North Carolina has faced this season, and the team will be ready to go in this one. One trend that favors the Tar Heels in this game is the fact that the Bulldogs are just 13-28 ATS away from home after two straight games forcing an opponent to commit 11 or fewer turnovers since 1997. Gonzaga is, however, 12-3 ATS over the past two seasons after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of its previous game.
North Carolina has been one of the most balanced teams in the country all season, as this team was seventh in the nation in offensive efficiency (120.9 points per 100 possessions) and 16th in defensive efficiency (93.2 points per 100 possessions). That two-way effort is something that will need to be there on Monday, and guys like G Joel Berry II (14.5 PPG, 3.6 APG, 1.4 SPG), F Justin Jackson (18.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG), and C Kennedy Meeks (12.7 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 1.2 BPG) will need to lead the way. All three guys were big parts of the team that lost last year, and they can all make sure that the ending is changed in this one. Berry II has been playing on injured ankles in this tournament, but he still hit some big shots to beat Oregon on Saturday. He’ll need to do the same on Monday, and he’ll also need to continue to run this offense efficiently. Jackson is also going to be counted on. He has been the team’s best player all season, and he is coming off of a 22-point performance against the Ducks. If Jackson can hit the 20-point mark then his team will be in good shape in this one. He’ll also need to do his best to keep the Gonzaga wings from getting to the basket. Meeks, meanwhile, was the hero against Oregon. He had 25 points and 14 boards in that game, and his offensive rebounding has been insane in this tournament. He’ll look to give the Tar Heels extra opportunities against the Bulldogs on Monday, but he’ll need to avoid foul trouble against guys like Karnowski and Collins. Three other guys that could come out and play well for the Tar Heels are F Isaiah Hicks (11.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG), G Theo Pinson (6.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.8 APG) and F Luke Maye (5.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG). All three have had big games at times this season, and they’ll need to do their part when on the court in this one.
Gonzaga is going for the first championship in school history, and the Bulldogs will be confident in their ability to pull it off. Like North Carolina, this Gonzaga team is very balanced. On the year, the Bulldogs scored 119.3 points per 100 possessions (12th in NCAA) and allowed just 86.6 (1st in NCAA). They’ll need to bring that defensive intensity on Monday or they could get blown out in this championship game. The Bulldogs’ ability to execute offensively will hinge upon whether or not they can get their bigs going. Both C Przemek Karnowski (12.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG), F Johnathan Williams (10.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) and C Zach Collins (10.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.7 BPG) will be the guys that must go to work inside. Karnowski is one of the biggest players in college basketball and nobody on UNC can stop him from a physical standpoint. He’ll get plenty of chances to score in the paint, but he’s going to need to really work hard on the defensive end. If he and Collins can’t keep the Tar Heels off the glass then this game could get out of hand. Collins will, however, be extremely confident coming into this one, as he had 14 points, 13 rebounds and six blocks in the win over South Carolina last game. As for the perimeter players, the Bulldogs have the talent to match the Tar Heels there as well. G Nigel Williams-Goss (16.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.7 SPG) is one of the most athletic point guards in the nation, and he’s going to torch Berry II if the North Carolina guard isn’t healthy. The Bulldogs also have guys like Jordan Mathews (10.8 PPG) and Josh Perkins (8.0 PPG), and both players can really shoot the basketball. If either of them can get hot then it would make the Gonzaga big men even tougher to cover, as the Tar Heels won’t be able to double any of them.
NCAA Tournament Championship Game Betting Preview
Covers.com
Gonzaga vs North Carolina
Gonzaga is in uncharted territory while North Carolina aims to make up for last season's NCAA championship game loss when the two No. 1 seeds collide on Monday in Glendale, Ariz. The Bulldogs are in the title game for the first time in school history while the Tar Heels, who lost to Villanova last season, are looking to win their sixth national crown.
North Carolina suffered a 77-74 loss last season when Villanova's Kris Jenkins drained a 3-pointer at the buzzer and the players have been constantly reminded of the fact during their NCAA Tournament run. "I think you're always going to have that in the back of your mind because it was a heartbreaking experience for us," said senior center Kennedy Meeks, who matched his career high of 25 points and collected 14 rebounds in Saturday's 77-76 victory over Oregon. Gonzaga regularly hears a different refrain that suggests they aren't a championship-caliber squad due to playing in the middling West Coast Conference. "I think the respect thing has to go out the window," junior point guard Nigel Williams-Goss said after scoring 23 points in Saturday's 77-73 win over South Carolina. "You have 37 wins in a college season, I mean that's just unbelievable. And to be playing the last game of the season, we have a chance to play for it all and we're here to win it."
LINE HISTORY: North Carolina opened as two-point favorites but that line was quickly adjusted downward to 1.5 late Saturday night. The total hit the board at 153.5 and has yet to move.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Gonzaga defined the ‘Cinderella’ mantra of college basketball, and it will always be the first to wear the glass slipper,” Cooley said. “But that doesn’t change the fact that to the public, the Zags appear overmatched against the greatest program of all time. We anticipate action on the over, but hopefully the public action will be split on the spread." - Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
ABOUT GONZAGA (37-1 SU, 23-10-2 ATS, 17-18 O/U): Backup freshman center Zach Collins displayed why he is the program's top NBA prospect by contributing 14 points, 13 rebounds and a career-best six blocked shots versus South Carolina. The trio of Collins (averages of 10 points and 5.9 rebounds), senior center Przemek Karnowski (12.3 points, 5.8 rebounds) and junior power forward Johnathan Williams (10.2 points, team-best 6.5 boards) will be counted on to neutralize North Carolina's strong interior play. Williams-Goss (team-best 16.9 points), senior shooting guard Jordan Mathews (10.8 points, team-leading 83 3-pointers) and sophomore guard Josh Perkins (eight points per game) have combined for 130 of the Bulldogs' 263 steals.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (32-7 SU, 18-16-3 ATS, 15-21-1 O/U): Meeks has been a beast on the boards with a 13.3 rebounding average over the past four games and he is averaging 12.7 points and a team-leading 9.4 rebounds and is a big reason why the Tar Heels boast the best rebounding margin (12.7) in the country. Junior forward Justin Jackson leads the Tar Heels in scoring (18.3) and 3-pointers (105) and he has recorded three 20-point outings in the tourney, including 22 points against Oregon. Junior point guard Joel Berry II (14.5 points) is playing through two sprained ankles - he was just 2-of-14 shooting against the Ducks - while senior forward Isaiah Hicks (11.8 ) also averages in double digits.
TRENDS:
* Bulldogs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
* Tar Heels are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
* Under is 10-1 in Bulldogs last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
* Over is 6-1 in Tar Heels last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
CONSENSUS: 58 percent of users are taking the points with the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the Over is picking up 69 percent of the totals wagers.
Gonzaga vs. North Carolina
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
North Carolina (32-7 straight up, 19-16-3 against the spread) has spent an entire year trying to forget the heroics of Kris Jenkins, who gave Villanova its first national title since 1985 by draining a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to knock off the Tar Heels 77-74 in the finals of the 2016 NCAA Tournament. On Monday night at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., UNC can atone for last year’s gut-wrenching loss if it can beat Gonzaga in the 2017 Tourney’s finals.
North Carolina and Gonzaga are both No. 1 seeds, but Mark Few’s program is gunning for its first national championship. Meanwhile, UNC is looking for its third national title on Roy Williams’s watch and its sixth in school history.
As of late Sunday afternoon, most books had UNC installed as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 154.5. The number had opened at two at most shops, while the total was 153.5 on the send-out at many spots. The money line was -130 for UNC and +110 for Gonzaga. For first-half wagers, UNC was favored by one-half point.
Both teams were locked into dogfights Saturday in the national semifinals. The Bulldogs advanced with a 77-73 win over a gusty South Carolina squad, while North Carolina survived a debacle at the free-throw line at crunch time thanks to Kennedy Meeks’s work on the offensive glass. The Tar Heels beat Oregon by a 77-76 count, but neither winner covered the spread.
UNC failed to cover the number as a favorite of 4.5 or five points. Gamblers supporting the ‘over’ had to check into the Heartbreak Hotel with an immensely disappointing push. Well, it just depends on when bettors wagered on the total. Many spots closed at 153, while others shut down at 152.5 or 153.5. The total had increased all week, so those who played the ‘over’ in the days before the game, indeed cashed a winner. The point, though, is nobody on the ‘over’ should’ve pushed and certainly shouldn’t have taken an ‘L.’
With 5.8 seconds remaining and UNC clinging to a 77-76 lead, Meeks missed a pair of free throws, but Theo Pinson batted the rebound out toward halfcourt where Joel Berry gathered it and was fouled with four ticks left. Berry would miss both FTS, too, but Oregon couldn’t grab the board once again. This time, it was the hero of the night, Meeks, who bullied his way toward the offensive rebound. He immediately threw the ball out and the Ducks didn’t even get a chance to foul again before the clock dripped to zero.
Meeks stole the show with 25 points, 14 rebounds, three steals, one blocked shot and one assist without a turnover. He made 11-of-13 shots from the field and finished with eight of UNC’s 16 offensive boards.
Justin Jackson enjoyed another outstanding performance, scoring 22 points in 38 minutes of playing time. He had two rebounds, two steals, two assists and one block. Jackson, the ACC Player of the Year who averages 18.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists, hit 4-of-9 attempts from 3-point land.
Pinson had an off shooting night, but he played an excellent floor game. Pinson had eight points, eight rebounds and five assists compared to only one turnover. Williams has to be concerned about the play of his junior point guard Berry, who simply isn’t playing at 100 percent due to an ankle injury. Berry logged 35 minutes of action against Oregon, but he produced just 11 points, three rebounds and had the same amount of turnover as assists (two apiece). He was an abysmal 2-of-14 from the field, 2-of-8 from downtown and 5-of-9 from the FT line.
Berry averages 14.5 points, 3.6 assists, 3.1 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. However, he has scored 11 points or fewer in four of five Tournament games. In UNC’s last four outings, Berry has more turnovers (eight) than assists (seven).
North Carolina leads the nation on offensive rebounds, collecting 15.8 per game. But those won’t be easy to come by against a Gonzaga team that has three seven-footers and five players who stand 6’10” or taller.
UNC has been a single-digit ‘chalk’ 18 times this year, posting a 9-7-2 spread record. The Tar Heels are ranked 12th in the country in scoring, averaging 84.8 points per game.
Gonzaga (37-1 SU, 23-10 ATS) is one of the nation’s best defensive teams, ranking second in field-goal percentage defense (36.5%), fifth at defending the 3-point line (29.4%) and seventh in scoring (61.2 PPG). Hell, even opponents struggle to make FTs against the ‘Zags (66.1%).
Gonzaga has it all – size, balance, experience, athleticism, scorers and defenders. And that’s why it has only tasted defeat once, although we all know UNC faced a schedule that was considerably tougher by an extremely wide margin. Nevertheless, the Bulldogs are perfect in the 11 games played against teams that made the NCAA field.
Those victims include Florida (in Orlando), Iowa State (neutral court), Arizona, St. Mary’s (three times) and its five foes during the Tournament. Few’s team has taken out South Dakota State, Northwestern, West Virginia, Xavier and South Carolina. They took their lone loss at home to BYU when the Cougars, who made the NIT, rallied from a double-digit deficit to pull the stunner as double-digit underdogs.
With Saturday’s victory over the Gamecocks, Gonzaga became only the fourth team to enter the national-title game with just one loss since 1975. Also, the Bulldogs became the first entrant into the finals from the WCC since the legendary Bill Russell led the San Francisco Dons to back-to-back national titles in 1955 and 1956.
There was nothing easy about getting past Frank Martin’s team. Gonzaga shot the lights out in the first half en route to a 45-36 lead at intermission. The ‘Zags would extend the lead to 14 and seemed to be in cruise control with a 65-51 advantage with 10:55 remaining.
Martin’s team had rallied from halftime deficits in three of its four Tournament wins to get to the national semifinals for the first time in school history. USC wasn’t going to go away quietly. Chris Silva made a 3-point play the hard way to spark a 16-0 run that gave the Gamecocks the lead, albeit briefly.
Gonzaga responded with a 7-0 run of its own. Zach Collins, the freshman center who could be lottery pick if he turns pro early, ignited the surge with a 3-pointer. Collins would finish with 14 points, 13 rebounds and six blocked shots.
Nevertheless, South Carolina had a chance to tie down by three when it took possession with 12 seconds left. But Few had Josh Perkins purposefully foul Sindarius Thornwell before he got into a shooting motion with 3.5 ticks remaining. Thornwell made his first FT before missing the second on purpose. Killian Tillie gathered the rebound and was fouled. He then hit both ends of the one-and-one to put the Gamecocks away.
Nigel Williams-Goss led the way for the winners with 23 points, six assists and five rebounds. Przemek Karnowski added 13 points and five boards, while Jordan Mathews hit 4-of-8 launches from downtown for 12 points.
Williams-Goss, the WCC Player of the Year, averages 16.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.7 steals per game. Seven Gonzaga players average at least 8.0 PPG. Karnowski is averaging 12.3 points and 5.8 rebounds per game, while Mathews (10.8 PPG) hits 39.2 percent of his 3-pointers. Johnathan Williams (10.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) has 36 blocked shots and makes 59.2 percent of his FGAs, and Collins (10.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG) averages team-bests in FG percentage (65.2%) and blocks (1.7 BPG).
Gonzaga is in its first underdog spot of the season, assuming the line holds between Sunday night and Monday’s tip.
Few owns a 26-17 career record in the Tournament, while Williams has the second-most career wins of any active head coach. He is in the finals for the sixth time with a 75-24 record (75.8%), trailing only Mike Krzyzewski in career Tourney wins (91) and finals appearances (nine).
These programs have met twice before. In 2006, Gonzaga won an 82-74 decision as a 7.5-point underdog at MSG in NYC. UNC exacted revenge in a big way in the South Region finals of the 2009 NCAA Tournament at FedEx Forum in Memphis, where the Tar Heels coasted to a 98-77 victory as 7.5-point ‘chalk’ behind 24 points and 10 rebounds from Tyler Hansbrough.
The ‘under’ is 21-15-1 overall for UNC, but the ‘over’ is 4-2 in its last six outings.
The ‘under’ is 18-17 overall for Gonzaga after cashing in seven of its last 10 contests.
Title Game Prop Sheet
VegasInsider.com
The 2017 Final Four continues at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on Monday with the national championship. The top two seeds remain as Gonzaga and North Carolina hook up for the title. The Bulldogs are playing for their first championship after knocking out upstart South Carolina. The Tar Heels are back in the title game for the second straight season after holding off Oregon.
Prior to Saturday's action, Gonzaga's Nigel Williams-Goss was listed as the favorite to capture Most Outstanding Player honors at 7/2 (Bet $100 to win $350), as the guard is now 3/1 to win the award.
However, he is not the favorite to pick up the honor as North Carolina standout Justin Jackson moved from 4/1 odds on Saturday to 5/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $250) on Sunday. Jackson scored 22 points in Saturday's win over Oregon, while Kennedy Meeks put up a game-high 25 points for the Tar Heels. Meeks' MOP odds improved from 8/1 to 7/2 odds following his clutch performance against Oregon.
Below are the props for Monday's showdown, courtesy of Sportsbook.ag.
Most Outstanding Player
Justin Jackson (North Carolina) 5/2
Nigel Williams-Goss (Gonzaga) 3/1
Kennedy Meeks (North Carolina) 7/2
Joel Berry II (North Carolina) 6/1
Johnathan Williams (Gonzaga) 10/1
Przemek Karnowski (Gonzaga) 10/1
Zach Collins (Gonzaga) 10/1
Jordan Mathews (Gonzaga) 20/1
Theo Pinson (North Carolina) 20/1
Isaiah Hicks (North Carolina) 25/1
Margin of Victory
Gonzaga Win By 1-3 Pts -- 6/1
Gonzaga Win By 4-6 Pts -- 9/1
Gonzaga Win By 7-9 Pts -- 10/1
Gonzaga Win By 10-12 Pts -- 15/1
Gonzaga Win By 13-15 Pts -- 18/1
Gonzaga Win By 16-18 Pts -- 20/1
Gonzaga Win By 19-21 Pts -- 25/1
Gonzaga Win By 22 Pts or More -- 15/1
UNC Win By 1-3 Pts -- 11/2
UNC Win By 4-6 Pts -- 7/1
UNC Win By 7-9 Pts -- 8/1
UNC Win By 10-12 Pts -- 10/1
UNC Win By 13-15 Pts -- 12/1
UNC Win By 16-18 Pts -- 15/1
UNC Win By 19-21 Pts -- 18/1
UNC Win By 22 Pts or More -- 8/1
Double Result
Gonzaga HT/ Gonzaga FT 17/10
Gonzaga HT/ UNC FT 11/2
Tie HT / Gonzaga FT 15/1
Tie HT / UNC FT 15/1
UNC HT/ Gonzaga FT 9/2
UNC HT/ UNC FT 7/5
Player to score first
Nigel Williams-Goss (Gonzaga) 4/1
Justin Jackson (North Carolina) 9/2
Joel Berry II (North Carolina) 11/2
Kennedy Meeks (North Carolina) 13/2
Johnathan Williams (Gonzaga) 7/1
Jordan Mathews (Gonzaga) 7/1
Przemek Karnowski (Gonzaga) 15/2
Josh Perkins (Gonzaga) 9/1
Isaiah Hicks (North Carolina) 10/1
Theo Pinson (North Carolina) 12/1
Player to hit first three-pointer
Justin Jackson (North Carolina) 7/2
Joel Berry II (North Carolina) 11/4
Nigel Williams-Goss (Gonzaga) 4/1
Jordan Mathews (Gonzaga) 13/4
Josh Perkins (Gonzaga) 11/2
Field (Any Other Player) 13/2
Johnathan Williams (Gonzaga) 17/2
Kenny Williams (North Carolina) 10/1