NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, December 12th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Central Florida has #1 eFG% defense in country despite forcing 9th-least turnovers in country; why? Because they’ve got a 7-6 center who is pretty good. Opponents are shooting 34.4% inside the arc against UCF, which is 7-1, with only loss by 10 to Villanova on a neutral floor. Knights are without PG Taylor (thumb for couple weeks; they’re turning ball over 22% of time. Penn is 3-5 with best win over #286 Robert Morris; they’re 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 12-25-8 points. Ivy league road underdogs are 9-10 vs spread.
Auburn coach Pearl was once a basketball manager at Boston College; his Tigers are 7-1 with a 74-70 win at UAB in their only true road game. Auburn is forcing turnovers 24% of time (#12), they’re #319 in experience but #4 in bench minutes, so lot of guys are getting experience. BC is 4-5 with two losses to teams outside top 300; they’ve lost four of last five games. Eagles turn ball over 21.7% of time; they’re 1-3 vs top 200 teams, with one win by 10 over Towson State. This is Auburn’s first game since the UAB win nine days ago.
One of South Carolina’s key players (Thornwell) is still suspended here; Gamecocks are 8-0 vs schedule #240- they beat Syracuse in NYC in only game away from home this season. Carolina is forcing turnovers 23.7% of time; they’ve got #2 eFG% defense in country. Seton Hall was in Hawai’i last week, winning two games; Pirates are 2-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Florida by 5, Stanford by 14. Seton Hall starts four juniors who helped win Big East tournament last March, but Seton Hall is shooting only 60.9% on foul line.
Maryland is 10-1 but has three wins by a point, a 4th win in OT; Terrapins are 3-0 vs teams outside top 200, with wins by 6-14-23 points. Other than Trimble, Terrapins have a young team (#320 experience). Jacksonville State is improved under new coach Harper; they’re 5-5 with only one home game. Gamecocks lost by 19 at TCU in only top 100 games- they’re shooting 41.9% on arc, but turning ball over 21.5% of time. JSU won at Tulsa; three of their five losses are by 7 or less points.
Armadillosports.com
Monday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
It’s a light college basketball card on Monday night as two of the highlighted affairs take place at Madison Square Garden for the Under Armour Reunion. Both contests will air on FS1 as a pair of SEC squads look to grab neutral site victories.
Auburn (-9½) vs. Boston College
The Tigers have jumped out to an impressive 6-1 start on the campaign in Bruce Pearl’s third season as head coach. Auburn won only 11 games last season, including three victories on the highway. However, the Tigers have already picked up two wins away from Auburn by beating Texas Tech in Cancun, Mexico by a 67-65 count and most recently knocking off UAB.
In last Saturday’s 74-70 triumph at UAB, the Tigers overcame a four-point halftime deficit to outscore the Blazers, 41-33 in the second half to grab the cash outright as 3½-point underdogs. Guard Jared Harper knocked down five three-pointers for Auburn, while scoring a season-high 21 points. Auburn was held to 40% shooting from the floor, but limited UAB to 4-of-20 shooting from three-point range. In five of seven games this season, Auburn has held opponents to 70 points or fewer, while cashing the UNDER in four of five lined contests.
Boston College failed to win an ACC game last season, while posting a horrendous 7-25 record. The Eagles started this season with a shocking home loss to Nicholls State, who won just 11 games last season. BC rebounded with three consecutive victories, including a minor home upset of Towson as three-point underdogs, 80-70 on November 22.
Since that victory, the Eagles has lost four of five games, including recent home defeats to Harvard and Hartford. In Friday’s 65-63 defeat to Hartford, Boston College shot 34% from the field, as leading scorer Jerome Robinson was limited to a season-low four points on 2-of-13 shooting. In two neutral site games this season, the Eagles have lost by double-digits to Kansas State and Richmond, while BC has scored 66 points or less in each of their past four defeats.
Auburn and Boston College are meeting for the first time since December 2013 as the Tigers topped the Eagles, 77-67 as 1½-point home underdogs.
South Carolina vs. Seton Hall (-2½)
In the headline game of the evening at MSG, the Gamecocks look to stay undefeated following an 8-0 start. Last season, South Carolina didn’t lose its first game until January 13, posting a 15-0 run the first 15 games.
The Gamecocks won their first game without leading scorer Sindarius Thornwell in last Sunday’s 16-point victory over FIU as the guard is suspended indefinitely. Guard Duane Notice stepped up in Thornwell’s absence to score 27 points, while P.J. Dozier posted his third consecutive double-digit scoring game with 20 points. However, South Carolina failed to cash as 20½-point favorites to fall to 3-3 ATS in lined contests.
Seton Hall shocked Villanova to capture the Big East tournament championship last season, but fell flat in their NCAA tournament opening round loss to Gonzaga. The Pirates own a solid 7-2 record this season, as both losses came in Thanksgiving weekend tournament in Orlando to Florida and Stanford. Seton Hall is fresh off a pair of victories in Honolulu over Hawaii and California, but Kevin Willard’s club has put together a 3-5 ATS record.
In last Wednesday’s 60-57 triumph over Cal, Pirates’ leading scorer Khadeen Carrington was held to a season-low 14 points, but Seton Hall allowed the Golden Bears to hit only 3-of-16 attempts from three-point range. Seton Hall cashed as short underdogs in that win, but have covered only once in four tries in the favorite role this season.
Penn at UCF (-9½)
The Johnny Dawkins era in Orlando has been a successful one, albeit through eight games. UCF owns a 7-1 record through eight games with the only loss to defending national champion Villanova, 67-57 as 16-point underdogs. The Knights haven’t exactly played difficult competition of late by beating Seattle, Stetson, and Maryland-Eastern Shore at home, but UCF picked up a 65-62 road victory at UMass on December 3.
UCF closed last season with a 12-18 record, including losses 12 of its final 14 games. Dawkins looks to turn things around with this season’s quick start, but will be without point guard B.J. Taylor through the end of non-conference play after suffering a broken right thumb against UMass. Senior guard Matt Williams stepped up with 23 points and 10 rebounds against Maryland-Eastern Short, as he is averaging 15.4 points per game this season.
The Quakers have slumped to a 3-5 start, which includes losses to Miami, Villanova, and Temple. Penn managed covers in the Miami and Temple losses, while falling to the Owls, 70-62 as 8½-point underdogs. Penn is coming off a 79-60 setback to George Mason on Saturday as 3½ -point favorites, as the Quakers put up their second-fewest points on the season.
South Carolina faces Seton Hall Monday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
#19 South Carolina will be looking to stay perfect with a win over Seton Hall at Madison Square Garden on Monday.
South Carolina is one of the few remaining unbeaten teams in the nation, and it’s not like the Gamecocks have faced an easy schedule either. They have already earned victories over teams like Michigan and Syracuse, and their defense has been absurd all season. South Carolina has held two of its eight opponents under 40.0% shooting from the field, and the team held Michigan to only 19.2% when they met in Brooklyn. Seton Hall, meanwhile, has a nice win over Iowa, but the Pirates lost to both Florida and Stanford on neutral courts. Those were solid opportunities to pick up some meaningful wins, but it’d be big for Seton Hall to knock off an undefeated team on Monday. It helps that this will essentially be a home game for the Pirates, as they should really have MSG packed with their fans. One trend favoring South Carolina coming into this game is that the Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS when playing away from home after a non-conference game over the past two seasons. Seton Hall, meanwhile, is 13-3 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the past three seasons. One thing that should really hurt the Gamecocks is the loss of G Sindarius Thornwell (Suspension). He will be out indefinitely for South Carolina, and that means that this team needs to replace 18.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.6 SPG and 1.3 BPG.
With Sindarius Thornwell out, the next guy up for South Carolina is G P.J. Dozier (12.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.4 SPG). Dozier has been hot recently, averaging 20.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 3.5 SPG over the past two contests. With Thornwell not playing, it’s likely that Dozier will need to score anywhere from 15 to 20 points on a nightly basis for this Gamecocks team. He doesn’t, however, want to sacrifice his efficiency. That is one of Doziers strong points, as he is shooting 45.1% from the floor and 44.8% from three this season. The outside shooting is an incredible improvement from the 21.3% he shot from the outside a year ago. F Chris Silva (9.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG) will likely be the x-factor in this game for South Carolina, though. Silva is an energetic forward, and he is going to need to crash the boards and defend the rim in this one. It’d be big for him to grab 10 or more rebounds in this game, as he’s going up against one of the best rebounders in the country in Angel Delgado. With Delgado on the floor, the Gamecocks will also need to make sure that everybody else is crashing the glass as well.
As previously mentioned, F Angel Delgado (13.6 PPG, 10.9 RPG) will be taking the floor at MSG on Monday and he is an animal for this Seton Hall team. Over the past three games, Delgado is averaging 17.0 PPG and 12.3 RPG on 23-for-30 shooting from the floor. Delgado knows who he is, and that is a fantastic role player. He’s probably the best rebounder in all of college basketball, and he can score when his team calls on him as well. Look for him to put up a double-double in front of a big crowd on Monday. G Khadeen Carrington (20.0 PPG, 1.2 SPG) is, however, the team’s leading scorer. Carrington will need to come up big in this game, and he should be able to do just that. He has been scorching hot this season, shooting 54.7% from the field and 55.3% from the outside. Carrington won’t be able to keep that up all season, but he’ll certainly be hoping to put forth an efficient performance at MSG. Another guy to keep an eye on is F Desi Rodriguez (14.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.0 SPG). Rodriguez is another player that can score the ball for this team, and he hasn’t even played to his potential this season. Unlike Carrington, Rodriguez has been ice cold from the outside and that’ll change soon. He’s hitting just 17.4% of his threes this year, but shot 38.6% from the outside a year ago. That means that he should start creeping back towards last year’s mark soon, and Rodriguez will certainly be hoping that begins on Monday.