NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, February 27th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Virginia lost five of last seven games; they lost last two home games, scoring 55-48 points. North Carolina won/covered its last four games; they’re 3-4 as road favorites (5-3 SU), with wins by 24 at NC State, 18 at Pitt in last two away games. UNC hammered Virginia 65-41 at home nine days ago; Cavaliers were 2-20 on arc, were -18 on boards in game that was 34-22 at the half. Teams split last eight series games; Carolina lost its last three visits here, by 9-15-5 points. ACC road favorites of 3 or less points are 7-4-1 vs spread this season.
Baylor is 3-5 in its last eight games after a 20-1 start; they’re 6-2 as a home favorite, with pair of 2-point losses, to K-State/Kansas. Bears turned ball over 29 times in 89-68 loss at West Virginia Jan 10; Baylor lost last three series games by 11-11-21 points. Teams split four series games played here. West Virginia won five of its last six games; their last two road games were decided by a total of five points- they’re 2-0 as an underdog this year. Baylor turns ball over 22% of time, worst in Big X. Big X home favorites of 3 or less points are 3-8 vs spread.
Coastal Carolina lost two of its last three games; they’re 6-2 vs spread at home in Sun Belt, with only losses both by two points, to Texas State/ULL. Chanticleers are 3-1 as a home favorite. UL-Monroe snapped 5-game skid with an upset win at App State Saturday; War Hawks are 1-7 on Sun Belt road, 4-4 as a road underdog, with losses by 4-31-9-16-6-14 points. ULM is last in Sun Belt in five of nine offensive metrics. Coastal has best 3-point defense in league; opponents are allowing 31.9% on arc. Sun Belt home favorites of 7 or less points are 17-20 vs spread.
Appalachian State lost its last three games, by 13-10-11 points; they’re 3-4 at home in league games, 2-2 as a home underdog- they’re 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games. UL-Lafayette is 4-0 vs Appalachian State in Sun Belt games; Cajuns won 80-64/87-76 in its two visits here. ULL won its last three games, last two by total of three points; they’re 4-4 on Sun Belt road, 2-1 as a road favorite. ULL is last in four of nine defensive metrics in league; road team is 11-4 vs spread in their Sun Belt games. Sun Belt road favorites of 4+ points are 4-8 vs spread this season.
Texas State won six of last nine games, covered six of last eight; they’re 3-2 as a home favorite, with home wins by 9-8-6-7-4-4 points. South Alabama lost three of last four games, is 5-3 vs spread as a road underdog, 2-6 SU on road- their last four road losses were all by 11+ points. USA made 10-24 on arc in 72-67 OT win over Texas State Jan 14; Jaguars are 3-4 vs TSU in series games- they lost by 1-11 points in two visits here. Sun Belt home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-14 against the spread this season.
Troy made 17-25 on arc in 93-71 home win over Tex-Arlington Jan 14; UTA got to foul line 33 times but was just 4-25 on the arc. Trojans won four of last five games, are 6-1 vs spread as a road underdog- all six of their conference losses are by six or less points. Arlington won six in a row, 10 of last 11 games; four of their last six wins were by 10+ points- they’re 5-2-1 as a home favorite, Teams split two meetings here, with games decided by total of four points. Sun Belt home favorites of 9+ points are 7-4-1 vs spread this season.
Georgia State is 10-3 in its last 13 games, with all three losses by 5 or less points; they are 5-3 on Sun Belt road. Panthers are 6-1 vs Arkansas State in Sun Belt games; they won two of three visits to ASU, with two of those games going OT. Red Wolves lost three of last four games, are 7-1 at home in league games, with only loss by 12 to Georgia Southern Saturday. ASU is 4-4 as a home favorite. State has best eFG% in Sun Belt, on both offense and defense. Road teams are 8-4-1 vs number in Sun Belt games where spread was 2 or less points.
Georgia Southern is 3-4 on Sun Belt road; they allowed 78+ points in all five conference losses, are 8-0 in Sun Belt when allowing less than 78 points. Southern/Little Rock split four Sun Belt meetings, going 1-1 in each gym; three of the four games were decided by 13+ points. Trojans lost their last nine games, are 0-4 vs spread in last four; they’re 2-6 at home, 0-8 vs spread, 0-5 as a home favorite. Southern is shooting 39.9% on arc, best in the league. Road teams are 8-4-1 vs number in Sun Belt games where spread was 2 or less points.
Kansas won its last six games, covering last three; they’re 2-6 as a home favorite, with wins at home by 2-17-7-12-5-4-19 points, and loss to Iowa State. Oklahoma covered its last four games (2-2 SU); they’re 5-2-1 as road underdogs, with road losses by 3-11-1-8-16-4-6 points. Kansas made 12-27 on arc in 81-70 win at Oklahoma Jan 10; Jayhawks won six of last seven series games. Sooners lost last eight visits here- they lost 109-106 in triple OT here LY. Double digit home favorites are 3-15-1 vs spread in Big X games this season.
Miami won its last four games; quick turnaround for them after its home win over Duke. ‘canes are 3-4 on ACC road, 3-1 as road underdog- they allowed 56 pts/game in their last four games. Virginia Tech won four of its last five games; they’re 6-1 at home in ACC, 1-4 vs spread as a home favorite. Miami beat Tech 74-68 at home Feb 8; Hurricanes won seven of last eight games vs Tech- teams split last four played here. Miami lost 77-62 in Blacksburg LY. ACC home favorites of 3 or less points are 7-9 against the spread this season.
Mercer made 14-25 on arc in 68-65 win at Samford Jan 11; Bears were down 5 with 7:55 left, rallied to win 5th straight game vs Samford- they won by 24-19 in last two meetings here. Mercer is is 3-5 in its last eight games, losing last three home games; they’re 3-3 as a home favorite. Samford lost as a 13-point favorite Saturday; they’re 2-5 in last seven games, 4-1 as a road underdog- seven of their last eight losses were by 6 or less points or in overtime. SoCon home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-14-2 this season.
Chattanooga lost its last three games, is 4-6 in its last ten; they’re 4-4 on SoCon road, 2-4 as a road favorite. Mocs’ senior G McLean got hurt Saturday (check status). UTC outscored Citadel 23-13 in foul line in 83-73 home win over the Bulldogs Jan 11; Citadel snapped an 11-game skid Saturday; they’re 2-4 as a SoCon home underdog. Mocs won last eight series games, winning last five visits here, by 1-5-4-19-6 points. UTC plays slowest tempo games in league, Citadel plays 2nd-fastest tempo in entire country. SoCon road favorites are 13-12 vs spread.
VMI lost its last five games, is 2-5-1 vs spread as a SoCon road underdog, with road losses by 27-18-5-18-17-19-7 points- their only road win was as a 20-point underdog. WCU lost seven of last eight games; they’re 2-6 at home in SoCon- this is first time they’ve been favored in a game this season. VMI made 13-34 on arc, nipped Western Carolina 79-78 at home Jan 12; Keydets are 2-3 in last five series games- teams split last two meetings in Cullowhee. SoCon home favorites of 3 or less points are 7-6 this season.
NC-Greensboro made 13-20 on arc in 83-79 upset win at East Tennessee State Jan 12, after trailing by 10 early on. Spartans won their last six games, are 6-2 at home in SoCon, with losses by 6 to Furman, 11 to Samford. East Tennessee also won its last six games, covering four of last five; they’re 4-3 as a road favorite, with road wins by 44-9-10-10-14-16 points with losses at Furman/Wofford. ETSU is 3-2 in SoCon meetings; teams split last two played here. SoCon road favorites of 4 or less points are 2-3 against the spread.
Armadillosports.com
UNC, Virginia clash on Big Monday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
Virginia will be looking to earn a gigantic home victory over red-hot North Carolina on Monday.
North Carolina has already clinched a share of the ACC regular season crown, and the team will now be looking to pick up an impressive road victory in Charlottesville. The Tar Heels will be feeling as confident as any team in the country on Monday, as they have won-and-covered in four straight games and just beat this same Virginia team on Feb. 18. North Carolina was a 6-point favorite at home in that one, and the Tar Heels ended up winning 65-41. They held Virginia to just 27.8% from the floor and 10.0% shooting from three in that game, and they’ll be hoping for similar effort on Monday. The Cavaliers are, however, coming off of one of their best offensive performances of the season against NC State last game. Virginia won 70-55 in that game, and the team shot 48.9% from the floor and 68.8% from three in that one. If the Cavaliers can play a decent game offensively then they should have a shot to win this game as well. One thing worth noting for North Carolina is that the team is 10-3 SU as a road favorite this season. The Tar Heels are, however, just 4-6 ATS in those contests. Virginia, meanwhile, has only been an underdog four times this season, and the Cavaliers are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in those contests.
North Carolina is one of the best teams in the nation, and the Tar Heels do it on both ends of the floor. North Carolina is currently ranked inside the top 25 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. That should serve them well against a Virginia team that also plays good two-way basketball. F Justin Jackson (18.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.6 APG) is the leader of this Tar Heels team, and he has been absolutely scorching lately. Jackson has scored 20 or more in three straight games for North Carolina, and the senior is 13-for-28 from the outside in those contests. Jackson had 20 points, six assists and four rebounds against Virginia three games ago, and he’d surely take another performance like that on Monday. Fs Kennedy Meeks (12.8 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.0 BPG) and Isaiah Hicks (11.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG) also had success against Virginia last game, combining to score 23 points with 15 rebounds. Meeks also had three blocks in that game, and the Tar Heels will be hoping for another two-way effort from him. North Carolina will, however, need more from G Joel Berry II (14.8 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.4 SPG) in this one. He had just five points against Virginia last contest and must be better on Monday.
Virginia will desperately be hoping that this meeting with North Carolina goes differently than the last one. The Cavaliers were 2-for-20 from the outside in that game, and they are just not going to win if anything like that happens again. G London Parrantes (12.4 PPG, 3.9 APG) is definitely going to need to be a lot better than he was in the last meeting with the Tar Heels. He was just 3-for-10 from the floor and 1-for-6 from the outside in that game, and he is Virginia’s only consistent source of offense. Fortunately for the Cavaliers, Perrantes had 16 points and 10 assists against NC State last game. He found his stroke, and will be hoping that it carries over into this one. Gs Devon Hall (8.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Kyle Guy (7.4 PPG) also got it going against NC State on Saturday. The two of them combined to score 37 points in that one, and it’d be big if they can combine to score even 25 on Monday. Both of them are capable of really getting hot, but they can’t afford to struggle together in this one.
Monday's Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The final Monday of the month in college basketball betting action on ESPN and ESPNU features a pair of matchups between some of the top teams this season in both the ACC and the Big 12.
The opener pits the No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels on the road against the No. 18 Virginia Cavaliers in the ACC and later that night in a big showdown in the Big 12, the No. 12 West Virginia Mountaineers go on the road to square off against the No. 9 Baylor Bears
No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 18 Virginia Cavaliers
Opening Odds: North Carolina -1.5, Total 130
Betting Matchup
The Tar Heels took a big step towards locking up the ACC regular season title with Saturday’s 85-67 romp over Pittsburgh as nine-point road favorites. At 13-3 straight-up in conference play, they now have a two-game lead over Florida State with just two games to play. North Carolina (25-5) has covered in its last four games to improve to 17-13 against the spread. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of its last nine outings and it is 4-8 ATS on the road this season.
Junior forward Justin Jackson is the team’s leading scorer with 18.8 points per game and, with 23 points in Saturday’s win, he has now scored at least 20 points in four of his last five starts. North Carolina is averaging 86.4 points, which is the seventh-highest total in the nation.
With Saturday’s much needed 70-55 victory against North Carolina State as a six-point road favorite, Virginia stopped its slide down the conference standings as a result of a four-game losing streak both SU and ATS. The Cavaliers are 9-7 in ACC play and 19-9 SU overall heading into their final two regular season games. They have gone 3-6 ATS in their last nine games and the total has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 12 contests.
Virginia’s shutdown defense has been the primary strength of this team with a points-allowed average of 55.8 that is still ranked first in the country. However, going back over its previous five games this number ballooned to 63.8 PPG. The 70 points scored against the Wolfpack was just the third time in the last seven outings that the Cavaliers exceeded their season scoring average of 67.1 PPG.
Betting Trends
The Tar Heels are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games overall and they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a SU winning record at home. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in their last seven games following a SU win.
The Cavaliers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a SU winning record on the road, but they fall to 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU winning record overall.
Head-to-head in this cross state rivalry, the favorite has gone 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and the total has gone OVER in five of the last seven games between the two. Back on Feb. 18, North Carolina won the first meeting 65-41 as a six-point favorite at home.
No. 12 West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 9 Baylor Bears
Opening Odds: Baylor -2, Total 135.5
Betting Matchup
The Mountaineers (23-6) squeaked past TCU 61-60 on Saturday as five-point road favorites to improve to 11-5 in Big 12 play. Going back to mid-January, they have gone 4-7-1 ATS over their last 12 games. They are 15-11 ATS on the year and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last seven games. West Virginia is 5-4 ATS in nine previous road games this season.
Junior guard Jevon Carter (15 points) and senior forward Nathan Adrian (13 points) led the way against the Horned Frogs and junior guard Daxter Miles Jr. sealed the win with a clutch free throw in the final seconds of the game. Carter has been the Mountaineers’ leading scorer all season long with 12.7 PPG and the team has a whole is averaging 84.5 points.
Baylor has now dropped three of its last four games SU with Saturday’s 72-69 loss to Iowa State on the road. The Bears closed as one-point underdogs in that game and they have failed to cover in their last four outings. The total went OVER 139½ points against the Cyclones after staying UNDER in eight of their previous 10 games. Baylor returns home with a costly 4-9 record ATS this season at the Ferrell Center in Waco.
Junior forward Johnathan Motley scored a game-high 27 points in Saturday’s loss to go along with 11 rebounds and he has now scored 19 points or more in five of his last six games. He leads the Bears in scoring this season with 17.3 PPG and he is pulling down an average of 9.8 rebounds a game. Baylor is averaging 73 PPG.
Betting Trends
The Mountaineers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four Monday games and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in six of their last eight road games.
The Bears have failed to cover in four of their last five games played on Monday and they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. The total has stayed UNDER in their last five games played at home.
The favorite in this Big 12 tilt is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in six of the last seven games between the two. West Virginia drew first blood in the season series with an 89-68 victory on Jan. 10 as a 5½-point home favorite.
Do you ever get the gold Sheet basketball record?
Could u please post under newletters if u find?