NCABB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, February 6th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Coastal Carolina hit 14-32 on arc, never trailed in 80-65 home win over Arkansas State Jan 7. Chanticleers are 6-4 in their first year in Sun Belt, 2-3 on road, with losses by 21-20-11 points on foreign soil- they won at Texas St/Little Rock. Arkansas State won its last six games, is 5-0 at home in conference, with three of five wins by 3 or less points. ASU is making 41% of its 3’s in Sun Belt play; Coastal is #1 in Sun Belt at defending the arc. Red Wolves were just 6-21 on arc in first meeting. Sun Belt home favorites of 9+ points are 4-5-1 vs spread.
Virginia won its last three games with Louisville; they beat Cardinals 61-53 in Yum! Center Dec 28, in brickfest where teams combined to go 4-28 on arc. Louisville lost its two ACC visits here, by 5-22 points. Cardinals won seven of last eight games; they had easy win at BC on Saturday. Louisville is 3-2 on ACC road, losing by 7 at Notre Dame, 5 at Florida State. Virginia lost by 4 at Syracuse Saturday, blowing 12 point halftime lead; Cavaliers won last three home games, by 17-13-23 points. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 10-8 vs spread.
Georgia Southern/UL-Lafayette split their four Sun Belt meetings, going 1-1 in each guy; GSU won first meeting this year 81-76 in Lafayette, going 29-37 on foul line (ULL was 13-22). Cajuns were +6 in turnovers but just 3-18 on the arc. Eagles are 8-2 in Sun Belt, 6-0 at home, 3-3 as a home favorite- their home wins are by 23-4-5-6-11-14 points. ULL lost five of last seven games; they’re 2-3 on Sun Belt road, losing away games by 3-37-3 points, with wins at Little Rock and Texas State. Sun Belt home favorites of 3 or less points are 3-6 vs spread.
Georgia State won its last seven games; they’re 4-1 at home in Sun Belt, winning by 1-20-11-3 points, with loss to Troy. Panthers are 6-1 vs UL-Monroe in Sun Belt games, but needed OT to beat WarHawks 73-65 Jan 14. State was only 15-25 on foul line; they were down 3 with 2:34 left. Monroe is 1-9 in Sun Belt with four losses by six or less points or in OT; they’re 1-3 at home in Sun Belt tilts, losing by 8-2-10 points with a win over Little Rock. Double digit home favorites are 5-3-1 against the spread in Sun Belt games this season.
Little Rock made 9-16 on arc, had only 7 turnovers in 76-68 win at Appalachian State Jan 7; Trojans are 4-1 vs ASU in Sun Belt meetings, winning by 18-26 in games played here. ASU lost its last six games, is 0-6 on Sun Belt road, with four of six losses by 11+ points- they’re 12-38 on arc in last two games. Little Rock is 3-9 in its last 12 games after a 9-2 start; Trojans are 2-4 at home in Sun Belt, with wins by 4-17 points. ASU is turning ball over 19.7% of time, 2nd-worst %age in league. Sun Belt home favorites of 9+ points are 4-5-1 vs spread.
Kansas split its last four games after an 18-game win streak; they’ve got some off-court stuff going on that is distracting. Jayhawks are 18-3 in last 21 games with K-State; they struggled to beat Wildcats 90-88 in first meeting, making 11-22 on arc, but blowing 12-point second half lead. Kansas is 4-1 on Big X road, losing at West Va, winning at 6-11-4-6 points. Wildcats snapped 3-game skid with win at Baylor Saturday; they’re 3-2 at home in Big X, losing to TCU and Baylor. Big X road favorites of 5 or less points are 5-3 vs spread.
East Tennessee State made 68.6% of its shots inside arc, held off Wofford 79-72 at home in first meeting this season Jan 22; Bucs are 3-2 in series where home side won four of five series tilts. ETSU lost its last two visits here, by 8-14 points. Bucs are won their last four games; they’re 4-1 on SoCon road, with loss at Furman, wins by 44-9-10-10 points. Wofford won five of last seven games, is 4-1 at home in SoCon, losing to Citadel, winning by 17-9-18-19 points. Single digit road favorites are 5-7 vs spread in SoCon games this season.
Monmouth won its last nine games, is atop MAAC, but lost 93-90 at home to Rider Dec 31; Hawks led by 13 at half. Hawks won three of four series games, beating Broncs three times LY. Monmouth won last two visits here, both by a single point. Hawks are 4-1 on MAAC road, winning last three road games by 7-4-12 points, with only loss at St Peter’s. Rider lost six of last eight games, is 3-3 at home; they’re 3-3 in MAAC games decided by six or less points. MAAC home favorites of 7+ points are 2-3 against the spread.
Fairfield won its last three games after a 5-game skid; they’re 3-3 at home in MAAC, beating Marist/Manhattan in last two home games. Quinnipiac is 4-3 vs Fairfield in MAAC play, with road team winning last five meetings. Bobcats won by 1-5 points in last two visits here. Quinnipiac lost three of last four games, is 1-5 on MAAC road, winning at Niagara, then losing last five road games, by 6-4-7-10-19 points. Quinnipiac is playing fastest-paced games in MAAC this year, Fairfield ##4. MAAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 11-13 vs spread.
Canisius lost four of its last six games; they’re 3-4 on MAAC road, upsetting Siena in Albany in its last game Saturday- they lost 4 of last 5 games that were decided by 7 or less points. St Peter’s lost its last two games in OT after a 6-1 streak; they’re 5-2 at home in MAAC, losing to Niagara/Iona. Griffins got swept by St Peter’s LY, by 17-4 points, after they had won six in a row over the Peacocks- Canisius won three of its last four visits to St Peter’s. MAAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 7-10 against the spread.
Armadillosports.com
Monday's Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The first Big Monday in February of college basketball betting action on ESPN features a double header of showdowns in the ACC and the Big 12. In a 7 p.m. (ET) tip from John Paul Jones Arena, the No. 9 Virginia Cavaliers play host to the No. 6 Louisville Cardinals in battle between two teams trying to keep pace with North Carolina the ACC title race. The backend of this double header at 9 p.m. sends the No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks on the road to face the Kansas State Wildcats in an in-state Big 12 clash.
No. 6 Louisville Cardinals at No. 9 Virginia Cavaliers
Opening Odds: Virginia -3
Betting Matchup
Louisville has just one straight-up loss in its last eight games and it has covered against the spread it its last six contests following Saturday’s 90-67 romp against Boston College as a 13-point road favorite. The total line in that game went OVER 144½-points and it has gone OVER in five of the Cardinals’ (19-4 SU, 16-5 ATS) last seven games. Both sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell and sophomore forward Deng Adel ended Saturday’s game with 19 points and senior forward Mangok Mathiang added 16 points to the winning cause off the bench.
Mitchell is the team’s leading scorer this season with 15 points per game as part of the Cardinals’ overall scoring average of 78.5 points. They are ranked 12th in the nation at the other end of the court in points allowed (62.3).
The Cavaliers (17-5 SU, 14-7 ATS) have dropped two of their last three games SU with losses to Villanova and Syracuse on the road sandwiched around a 71-48 victory against Virginia Tech this past Wednesday as 11½-point favorites at home. They were able to cover against the Wildcats as 5½-point underdogs, but they closed as 4½-point favorites in Saturday’s 66-62 loss to the Orange. The total went OVER 127½-points in that game after staying UNDER in Virginia’s previous five outings.
Senior guard London Perrantes is averaging a team-high 11.9 PPG and he has now scored 11 points or more in four of his last five starts. The Cavaliers remain the top defensive team in the nation with a points-allowed average of 54.0.
Betting Trends
The Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU win and they have gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four Monday games.
The Cavaliers are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games at home and they have gone 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a SU winning record on the road. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games against a team with a SU winning record overall.
Head-to-head in this ACC tilt, the underdog has covered ATS in four of the last five meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in four of those five games.
No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks at Kansas State Wildcats
Opening Odds: Kansas -3½
Betting Matchup
Look for Kansas (20-3 SU, 7-14 ATS) to slide a bit in this week’s national polls following Saturday’s stunning 92-89 overtime loss to Iowa State as a 10-point home favorite. It was the Jayhawks’ second SU loss in their last four games and they are now a costly 1-4 ATS in their last five contests. The total went OVER 154½ points in the loss to the Cyclones after staying UNDER in their previous seven games.
Kansas still leads the Big 12 standings at 8-2 SU behind the elevated play of senior guard Frank Mason III. He leads the team in both points (20.4) and assists (5.2) while shooting 51.2 percent from the field. He put up 32 points in the losing cause against Iowa State.
Kansas State is an even 5-5 SU in Big 12 play and it played the role of spoiler this past Saturday with a shocking 56-54 upset of Baylor as a seven-point underdog on the road. This snapped a three-game slide both SU and ATS. The total stayed UNDER 131 points against the Bears and it has stayed UNDER in three of the Wildcats’ last four games.
Kansas State (16-7 SU, 11-7-1 ATS) is averaging 74.4 PPG and it continues to do a good job defensively with a points-allowed average of 65.4. Sophomore guard Kamau Stokes scored a team-high 15 points in Saturday’s win. Another sophomore guard Barry Brown leads the team in scoring with 12.2 PPG, but he has been held to a combined 11 points in his last two starts.
Betting Trends
The Jayhawks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss and they have covered in their last four Monday games. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in four of their last five games played on a Monday.
The Wildcats have gone just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. The total has gone OVER in their last four games at home.
Kansas won an earlier meeting this season 90-88, but it did not come close to covering as a 13½-point home favorite. The total went OVER 139 points in that game and it has gone OVER in three of the last five meetings. The Jayhawks have now won the last four meetings SU while going 3-1 ATS.