NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, March 6th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
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MAC tournament, campus sites
Northern Illinois lost three in row, seven of last eight games; they’re 15-51 on arc in last three games. Eastern Michigan lost eight of last ten games overall; they lost last seven games that were decided by 8 or less points. NIU/EMU split pair of games this year; EMU is 9-3 in last 12 series games, 3-1 vs Huskies in this tourney. EMU plays Syracuse-like zone; Huskies shoot 31% on arc in conference games, 10th out of 12 MAC teams. Last five years, NIU is 3-2 in its first MAC tourney game. EMU won its first tourney game the last four years.
Miami lost 14 of its last 17 games, with only three wins all by 5 or less points. Red Hawks are last in MAC in four of nine offensive metrics. Western Michigan won its last eight games after starting season 7-15; they won 72-55 at Miami in only meeting this year Feb 7. Broncos won seven of last eight series games. Miami won its first MAC tourney game three of last four years; WMU won its first MAC tourney game 12 of last 14 years- they lost to NIU in this round LY. Broncos are shooting 39.4% on arc in conference games, best in MAC.
Toledo won six of its last seven games with Bowling Green; teams split pair of games this year. Rockets won first meeting 85-73 at home, then lost rematch 104-100 in double OT, despite 14-28 shooting on arc- they had 10-point lead in second half. Toledo is 5-3 in its last eight games, splitting last six home games. Bowling Green lost five of last seven games, losing three of last four road games. Falcons won their first tournament game last two seasons; Toledo won its first tourney game three of last four years.
Central Michigan starts two 5-9 guards, they’re an awful defensive team, losing their last seven games while allowing 93.9 pts/game; CMU won 105-98 in OT at Kent State in only meeting this season- they’re 3-2 in last five games with Kent. Chips lost last three road games, by 5-21-8 points. Golden Flashes won five of last six games, losing rivalry game to Akron in last game Friday; Kent lost three of last five home games, with two losses in OT. Chippewas are 2-5 in first tourney game last seven years; Kent State is 0-3 in MAC tourney the last three years.
CAA tournament, North Charleston, SC
NC-Wilmington won its last six games; only two of those were at home; they used only two guys more than 29:00 yesterday. Charleston is in its hometown, not home arena; they won last six games, used four starters 30:00+ yesterday against Towson State. Road team won both UNCW-Charleston games this year, which were decided by total of seven points. Seahawks shot combined 10-47 on arc in the two games; they’re 8-1 in last nine series games- three of their 8 wins came in OT. Over last 14 years, team with better CAA record is 10-2 in CAA finals.
Horizon tournament, Detroit
Northern Kentucky won eight of last nine games; their lone loss was 81-77 at Youngstown Feb 18, a brick fest where teams combined to shoot 10-47 on arc. Norse had 13.3% of their shots blocked this year, 5th-worst in country. Home side won all four series games. Youngstown gunner Morse (32% on arc this season) was 0-9 on arc in two games vs NKU this season. Penguins had lost seven of last eight games before upsetting Cleveland St/Oakland in first two games here- they didn’t play yesterday. Norse used eight guys double figure minutes yesterday.
Milwaukee lost its last nine regular season games; they’ve won two games in this event, never trailing in upset win over injury-riddled Valpo yesterday. Panthers only used two guys 30:00+ yesterday. Ill-Chicago lost its last four regular season games; they played eight guys double figure minutes in upset win over Green Bay yesterday. UIC swept Milwaukee this season, winning by 14-5 points; they won last meeting in OT after they blew 13-point lead with 9:40 left. Panthers won 16 of last 20 series games. Don’t see lot of 6-seed/10-seed semifinal games.
WCC tournament, Orleans Arena, Las Vegas
Gonzaga beat Pacific by 32 Saturday, but game was 27-25 at half; I’m not convinced Zags don’t have some kind of problem, whether internal or just basketball-related. Won’t matter here, but it will matter soon. Gonzaga hammered Santa Clara twice this year, by 31-35 points; they led the two games by 16, 14 at halftime. Zags won last 14 series games- over last decade, they’re 4-0 vs Broncos in this event. Zags won last 12 WCC tourney games; over last 14 years, they’re 10-4 in second WCC tourney game. Sendek is good coach; Broncos will be prepared, but……..
St Mary’s is 17-0 this season vs WCC teams not named Gonzaga; their other loss was back in December, at home to Tex-Arlington. Gaels are #83 experience team that still only starts one senior- they’ve won last five games. BYU is #335 experience team; they won five of last six games, with only loss in that stretch the home loss to the Gaels. St Mary’s won both its games with BYU this season by 13 points; they’re 4-2 in last six series games. Teams have never met in WCC tourney. Since ’04, Gaels are 3-6 in second WCC tourney game.
Summit tourney, Sioux Falls
South Dakota State won four in row, 7 of last 9 games; they won this tournament three of last five years, but have new coach this year. South Dakota won its last seven games; they’re #306 experience team in country. South Dakota/So Dakota State split two meetings this year that were decided by total of three points. State won eight of last ten series games; they beat Coyotes 78-65 in this tourney two years ago. Coyotes had yesterday off; only two Jackrabbits played 30:00+ last nite. This is big event in this state; 12,000 people are expected to attend.
Omaha won its last four games after being 13-13 at one point; Mavericks play #11 tempo in country, turn ball over 18% of time- they avenged couple of losses to Ft Worth last night, games they led by decent amount in second half. IUPUI won three of its last four games. Road team won both IUPUI-Omaha games this year; teams split last six series games. Hollins/Thurman played 39/35:00 last night- no one else played more than 29:00. IUPUI had last night off. Both teams are in bottom 35 in country in defensive eFG%.
Southern Conference, Greenville, NC
NC-Greensboro made 23-43 behind arc in pair of wins over East Tennessee State this season, by 4-6 points; Spartans had lost three of four to ETSU before this year. Buccaneers won eight of their last nine games overall; only loss was 72-66 at UNCG a week ago. ETSU forces turnovers 23.4% of time in SoCon games, shoots 58.2% inside arc, both best in league. UNCG turns ball over 20.5% of time, #9 in league. Spartans won their last nine games- they’re #211 experience team in country, Bucs are #7. Higher seeded team won this game the last six years.
MAAC tournament, Albany
Siena PG Wright tweaked his leg near end of game yesterday, was limping last few minutes of game (check status); Saints used three starters 35:00+ yesterday- they’re #271 in country in bench minutes. Iona is in MAAC title game for 5th year in row (2-2 last four years); lower-seeded team won this game the last three years. Gaels won by 11 at Siena Jan 27, then got upset 81-79 at home by the Saints 11 days later- Iona led that game by 13 in second half. Saints last won this tourney in 2010; Iona won it LY and in ’13. Siena won won five of last six games. Iona is 5-4 in its last nine games.
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