NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, December 31st, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
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Xavier won four of last five games with Georgetown, winning 66-53/88-70 in last two visits here; Musketeers are 11-2 vs schedule #49 but lost both their true road games, by 15 at Baylor, by a hoop at Colorado. Xavier won last four games, is 5-2 vs top 100 teams, with best win by 6 over Clemson on a neutral floor. Georgetown is 8-5 vs schedule #60; they’re 3-4 vs top 100 teams, and lost at home to Maryland/Arkansas State. Hoyas turn ball over 20.1% of time, aren’t great on defensive boards (#322). Georgetown is making 40.2% of its 3-pointers (#22).
It is New Year’s Eve and Duke is playing its first true road game of season; they played UNLV in T-Mobile Arena (not Rebels’ home floor) but Rebels are an expansion team this year. Duke is without Allen (suspended) here; they’ve won last nine games with Virginia Tech, winning last three trips here, by 15-32-5 points- they won last trip here 91-86 in OT two years ago. Blue Devils are 3-1 vs top 100 teams (they’re 12-1 vs schedule #122, with only top 40 wins over Florida, URI. Va Tech is 11-1 with only loss by 3 to Texas A&M on a neutral floor.
Notre Dame is another team playing first true road game today; they’re 2-2 on a neutral floor, 3-2 vs top 100 teams, with losses to Villanova by 8, Purdue by 5- their best win was over #45 Northwestern. Pitt won its last three games with Notre Dame, all by four points; Irish lost five of last seven visits here, in series where road team won three of last four games. Panthers won 112-106 over Marshall last game; they were up 20 at half. Pitt is 11-2 vs schedule #138; they’re 2-1 vs top 100 teams, losing by 9 to SMU on a neutral floor.
Louisville/Indiana both were upset in their conference openers earlier this week; Cardinals won last meeting with Indiana 94-74 two years ago, after trailing by 4 early in second half. This year, Louisville is 11-2 vs schedule #33; they won by 9 at Grand Canyon in its only true road game. Cardinals have #7 eFG% defense in country, Indiana is 2-2 vs top 100 teams; they lost 87-83 to Nebraska in Big 14 home opener, even though Hoosiers made 11-25 on arc. Louisville foes are shooting 28% on the arc. This isn’t a conference game but it is a high-profile national game.
Villanova won its last four games with Creighton, winning 76-72/85-71 in last two visits here; five of last six series meetings were decided by 14+ points. National champ Wildcats are 5-0 on neutral floors; this is their first true road game outside of Philly. Villanova is 13-0 vs schedule #100; they looked shaky at home vs DePaul Wednesday (won 68-65) but they’ve got #4 eFG% in country, are #90 experience team. Creighton has really fast guards; they’re 13-0 vs schedule #149, with six top 100 wins, beating Wisconsin/Seton Hall at home.
UConn is decimated by injuries; they were down 36-12 at half of their AAC opener with Houston. Huskies lost three of last four games, are 5-7, splitting pair of true road games that were decided by total of 7 points. Tulsa lost 7 of top 8 scorers from LY; they lost their last two games, scoring 59.5 pts/game. Hurricane is turning ball over 24.3% of time, in bottom 10 in country. Tulsa is 1-4 vs teams ranked #110 or better, with best win over #89 Illinois St. Home side won all four AAC meetings between UConn/Tulsa; Huskies lost 66-58/60-51 in last two visits here.
Virginia won its last two games by 4 at Cal, 8 at Louisville, two quality wins; Cavaliers’ only loss was by 9 at home to West Virginia. Virginia forces turnovers 23.6% of time (#12); they won five of last six games with Florida State, beating Seminoles in two of last three ACC tournaments; Seminoles lost last three games here, by 20-10-12 points. FSU won its last nine games, with four of those top 100 games; this is Seminoles’ first true road game. Seminoles are 13-1 vs schedule #231; they’re #304 experience team but their bench is playing #22 minutes.
Davidson is 7-4 vs schedule #62; they’re 7-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with six of the seven wins by 12+ points. Wildcats are #161 experience team that has players from 7 different countries; they take lot of 3’s but are making only 33.8% of them so far. Richmond is 3-5 in its last eight games, 1-2 in true road games, losing at Bucknell/Oral Roberts. Spiders are shooting just 30.8% on arc. Davidson is 3-1 vs Richmond since they became A-14 rivals; Spiders lost 81-67/83-79 in last two visits here. Home team won three of four series games.
Wyoming is surprising 10-3 vs schedule #229; they were in Las Vegas LW, losing in OT to USC at Orleans Arena. Cowboys are 1-2 in true road games, with only win at Montana by a point- they lost at Pacific/Cal. UNLV has a whole new team; they’re 7-7, 6-3 on this floor; they’re 6-3 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Home side won last six Wyoming-UNLV games; Cowboys won conference tourney on this floor couple years ago, but they’re 0-15 in last 15 games vs Rebels in this gym, with six of last eight losses by 11+ points.
Central Florida is still without PG Taylor (wrist) who missed last six games; Knights have #1 eFG% defense, thanks to 7-6 C Fall- opponents are shooting 36.1% inside arc against them. UCF is turning ball over 22.3% of time; they’re 1-1 in top 100 games, winning at Charleston, losing by 10 to Villanova. Temple won its last four games with UCF, three by 6 or less points; Owls won 86-62/62-60 in last two visits to Orlando. Temple split its last six games, losing by 6 to Cincy in AAC opener. Owls lost by 3 at Mass in their only true road game outside of Philly.
NC State is 11-2 vs schedule #290; they crushed last four opponents since big man Yurtseven became eligible- he scored 11 pts/game so far. Wolfpack lost by 14 at Illinois in only true road game; they also lost by 18 to Creighton on neutral floor- those are their only two top 100 tilts. NC State is 3-2 in its last five games with Miami; they’ve won three of last four games in this building. Hurricanes are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Iowa St/Florida in tourney at Disney, beating Stanford by 14 in same event. Miami has #6 eFG% defense in the country.
Nevada won its last seven games; they’re 2-1 in true road games, winning at Washington, Bradley after losing at St Mary’s in season opener. Wolf Pack is 9-0 vs teams outside top 125; they lost to #114 Iona in Alaska after they had beaten Gaels in Reno the week before. Fresno State won five of last seven games with Nevada, with both losses in OT; Wolf Pack lost last two visits here, by 4-22 points. Bulldogs are 0-4 vs top 200 teams; their best win is over #204 Oregon State.
Tennessee State beat Murray State 73-71 at home LY, just their second win in last 15 games with the Racers. Tigers lost their last eight games in this gym. TSU is 2-3 in last five D-I games, losing to two ACC teams and Vanderbilt; they’re 6-0 vs teams outside top 100 and they’ve also won at #63 Middle Tennessee State. Murray State is lost its last four D-I games; they last D-I win was Dec 3rd. Racers are 23-22 since coach Prohm bolted to Iowa State; they’re 1-3 vs teams in top 125, with win over #69 Illinois State. Murray is 1-5 in games decided by 6 or less points.
Armadillosports.com
Florida State faces Virginia
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com
#12 Virginia hosts #20 Florida State in a top 25 ACC clash on Saturday afternoon.
Coach Tony Bennett’s Virginia Cavaliers will be looking for their second top 25 conference win in a week, and the potential to vault inside the top 10, when they take on Coach Leonard Hamilton’s Seminoles on Saturday. The Cavaliers are fresh off beating #6 Louisville on the road (61-53, UVA +3) on Wednesday night to run their record to 11-1 (7-3 ATS). The win over the Cardinals was Virginia’s fourth straight (4-0 ATS). Virginia’s lone blemish this season did come at home on Dec. 3 (66-57, UVA -8 ) to West Virginia. Florida State will be making their first road trip of the season as the Seminoles look for their ninth straight victory. While Florida State has played a relatively soft schedule, their record features neutral court wins over Illinois and George Washington as well as a home defeat of then-# 21, Florida. Florida State kicked off ACC play after nine days off by beating Wake Forest on Wednesday night (88-72, FSU -7.5) The Seminoles have been favorites in every game this season (including their one loss to Temple – 89-86 on a neutral court), but Coach Hamilton’s crew finds themselves +9 on the road in Charlottesville. Florida State snapped a five-game losing streak to Virginia by winning at home (Jan. 2016) last season when these two teams played. The 69 points that the Seminoles scored (they won 69-62, FSU +3) was the most they’ve tallied against the Cavaliers since 2010 (11 games). The total has gone UNDER in this matchup seven of the past eight times. Virginia is 6-2 (5-3 ATS) in the past eight meetings with Florida State and is 5-0 (4-1 ATS) at home against the Seminoles since Jan. 2013. Coach Hamilton is 8-6 (7-7 ATS) against Coach Bennett, with Florida State taking the first six games (2-4 ATS) these two teams played with Hamilton and Bennett at the sidelines of their respective programs (between 2009 and 2012) before the tide turned to Virginia’s favor in recent years (as previously mentioned).
The Seminoles have been humming on offense recently, boasting four wins in which they shot over 50% FG and two in which they were north of 60% from the field. Their ultimate test will be against Virginia’s stifling pack line defense, a test they passed last year (albeit, in Tallahassee). The Seminoles were able to shoot an uncharacteristic 48.8% FG and 46% 3PT in their defeat of Virginia last January, led by 18 points and nine rebounds from Dwayne Bacon(17.4 PPG, 47.8% FG). The sophomore Bacon returns for the Seminoles to anchor a group that is 10th in the country in scoring offense (88.1 PPG) – a full 10 points per game higher than 2015-16. What worked in Wednesday’s win against Wake Forest for Florida State, will have a much tougher time working on the road against the nation’s best scoring defense. Florida State also got 23 points from Xavier Rathan-Mayes (10.9 PPG, 4.6 APG) in that contest, and rendered Wake Forest star John Collins ineffective with foul trouble. Virginia is a much more well-balanced unit and plays as good a mistake-free game as any team in the country. Florida State can’t count on going to the line 25 times per game (36th in NCAA) as they normally do. The Seminoles have proven that they can make shots, and they’ll have to do just that. Virginia is also mediocre on the glass, and that’s one way to maximize the few possessions (61.6, to be exact) that Virginia allows. Freshman F Jonathan Isaac (12.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG) will be a key on Saturday for Coach Hamilton’s attack. The pack line defense can catch seasoned veterans off guard and taking bad shots, how will the future NBA first round pick react in his first true road test? Can he help crash the boards, do the dirty work, and provide multiple offensive opportunities for the Seminoles?
G London Perrantes and the Cavaliers look to cap off a banner week with some revenge against the Seminoles. Perrantes (9.9 PPG, 4.5 APG) shot just 4-of-13 and committed four turnovers in Virginia’s loss in Tallahassee last season, even though he managed 19 total points. This season’s well-rounded Cavalier team boasts nine players garnering 15 minutes or more of playing time. One of those players, freshman G Kyle Guy (9.3 PPG, 58.1% 3PT) looks like a future Virginia great, as his sharpshooting ways have infused the Cavalier offense recently. Guy is 8-for-15 from downtown in his last four games, averaging 13.0 points per game in just 22.3 minutes per game. Virginia was led in scoring against Louisville on Wednesday by 6’5” G Devon Hall (10 points). Hall (6.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG) has played 30 minutes in Virginia’s two most recent wins (Louisville, California) and is averaging 5.7 RPG in his last three games. F Isaiah Wilkins (24.0 MPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.2 BPG) is the quintessential Virginia cog in the pack line defense; a guy who doesn’t need the ball on offense and can guard all five positions on defense. G Darius Thompson (7.8 PPG) is a capable offensive threat who could play a big role against the up-tempo Seminoles if Virginia finds themselves in need of points down the stretch. Thompson kept Virginia in the game (14 points, 3-for-6 3PT) in their one loss to West Virginia. Overall, you know what you’re getting with Virginia; the ultimate team effort, grit and grind on every defensive possession and high basketball IQ on offense (1.15 points per-possession, 40th in NCAA; 9.4 Turnovers/game, 2nd in NCAA). Virginia isn’t going to beat themselves, but Florida State won’t back away from a defense that couldn’t crack the Seminoles last season.