NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, December 3rd, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
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Kentucky lost by 10 at UCLA LY after beating the Bruins 83-44 the year before; Wildcats are 7-0 this season vs schedule #275- they beat Michigan State 69-48 in only top 90 game- that was also their closest game so far. Kentucky is #345 experience team playing pace #26. UCLA is 8-0 playing schedule #270 with least experienced team in country- this is their first true road game. Bruins are playing #12 pace, but their subs play least minutes in country. UCLA’s got two top 100 wins; Nebraska/Texas A&M, both on neutral floor. SEC home favorites are 14-15 vs spread; Pac-12 underdogs are 3-13.
Middle Tennessee won its last eight games with former Sun Belt rival South Alabama, winning last three by 10-1-13 points- they won by point in OT in last visit here. Blue Raiders upset Ole Miss by 15 in Oxford Wednesday- they start two juniors, two seniors. Jaguars are 6-1 vs schedule #319, with only top 200 win at #163 UNLV. USA also starts two juniors, two seniors- they appear to be improved this year, after being 37-60 the last three years. C-USA road underdogs are 13-11 vs spread; SEC home favorites are 14-15.
Virginia shot 68.6% inside arc, beat West Virginia 70-54 in NYC last year, after trailing by 12 late in first half; Mountaineers were just 2-14 on arc that night. Cavaliers are 7-0, with last three wins vs top 100 teams- they’ve played schedule #192, but they’re #8 at protecting ball, crucial vs West Virginia’s press. Mountaineers forced 40 turnovers in last game after getting upset by Temple on neutral floor in NYC. WVU are forcing turnovers 35 % of time, most in country. UVa starts three juniors, one senior. ACC home favorites are 18-13 vs spread; Big X underdogs are 6-2 vs spread.
Baylor is 7-0, with four top 40 wins; they’ve played schedule #34. Bears beat Michigan State/Louisville on consecutive days, rallying back to win from down 32-10 vs Cardinals. Baylor is playing pace #335 (slow), had #30 eFG% defense- they start four juniors and a senior. Xavier is 7-0 with three top 80 wins; best team they’ve beaten is #36 Clemson. Musketeers are forcing turnovers 22.4% of time- this is their first true road game but they won neutral court tournament down in Orlando last weekend. Big East underdogs are 8-4 against the spread; Big X home faves are 12-7.
Providence beat Rhode Island the last six years, but #42 Rams haven’t finished a season this high since 2008. In LY’s game, URI led by 5 midway thru second half but lost 78-74 at home to Friars. URI is 5-2, losing by 3 at Valparaiso Tuesday, also by 10 to Duke on neutral floor. Rams start three juniors, two seniors. Friars beat Memphis on neutral court, their best win, but lost only top 80 games by 5 at Ohio State, 11 to Virginia on a neutral floor. Providence starts four juniors and a soph. A-14 road teams are 8-4 vs spread; Big East underdogs are also 8-4.
Wichita State is playing first true road game of year; they were 1-2 on Bahamas trip, losing to Louisville/Michigan St after crushing LSU. Shockers are 2-2 vs top 150 teams, beating Tulsa by 27, LSU by 35. Colorado State is coming off big upset win in Boulder against Colorado; Rams are #6 in eFG% defense, but vs schedule #309; their only loss was by 7 to #68 Stanford. MVC favorites are 2-5 away from home; Mountain West underdogs are 13-12. Colorado State is shooting just 29.3% on arc- they start three sophs, one junior. Mountain West teams are 7-5 in last 12 games against MVC squads.
Iona won six of last seven games with St Peter’s, going 5-2 in last seven visits here; Gaels won Alaskan Shootout last weekend, are 3-2 this season, losing true road games at Florida State, Nevada by 21-15 points- they haven’t played a home game yet, but did avenge the Nevada loss in finals in Alaska. St Peter’s scored 80+ points in its three wins, 57-41 in losses to Lafayette, Fordham; best team Peacocks have played is #162 Boston U- St Peter’s beat them 80-67. Peacocks start three seniors and a junior. Iona is starting two new transfers.
Oklahoma is 5-1 vs schedule #311; they’re #316 experience team- this is their first true road games. Sooners went 2-1 in neutral court tourney in Florida. Oklahoma starts a freshman, two sophs; their only top 200 win is over #36 Clemson. Wisconsin is 2-2 vs top 60 teams, beating Georgetown by 16, Syracuse by 17; Badgers are a top5 rebounding team in country so far this season. Wisconsin was 7-33 on arc in 65-48 loss at Oklahoma LY; they beat Sooners the year before in the Bahamas. Badgers Big X underdogs are 6-2 vs spread this season. Big 14 home favorites are 13-14.
Oklahoma State is 6-1 vs schedule #229; they’re #292 experience team. Cowboys went 2-1 at Maui Classic, beating UConn/Georgetown, losing to UNC by 32. OSU is playing #10 pace and fouling too much; they’re 10th-worst team at giving up foul shots. Maryland is a young team held together by great PG Trimle; Terps lost at home to Pitt Tuesday- their three best wins are all by one point or in OT (Georgetown/K-State/Richmond). Maryland is shooting just 31.2% on arc. Big X underdogs are 6-2 vs spread this season. Big 14 home favorites are 13-14 against the spread.
Auburn outscored UAB 24-8 on foul line in 75-74 home win over the Blazers LY; Tigers are 5-1 vs schedule #203- they’re #315 experience team, starting three frosh, two sophs. UAB is 4-3 with #43 experience team; two of their losses are Kansas/St Mary’s, really good teams. Blazers are turning ball over 21.5% of time, red flag vs Auburn pressure. SEC underdogs are 8-10 vs spread away from home. C-USA home favorites are 9-7. SEC teams won 10 of last 12 games vs C-USA squads but were favored in 11 of the 12 games- they covered only series game the last two years as an underdog.
Colorado got upset at home by Colorado State during week; this is first true road game for Buffs squad that split last four games, beating Texas/Wofford in between losses to Notre Dame/CSU. Colorado starts is #51 experience team; that start our seniors. Portland is 4-2 vs schedule #80; they’re #46 experience team. Pilots’ wins are all vs teams outside top 200- they lost by 22-10 points in their two top 100 games. Pac-12 favorites are 8-8 vs spread away from home; WCC underdogs are 10-10, 1-1 at home. Pac-12 teams are 17-5 in last 22 games vs WCC teams, 8-6 vs spread when favored.
VCU is 6-1, with only loss by 8 in Bahamas to unbeaten Baylor; Rams are #30 experience team, forcing turnovers 23.3% of time- their subs’ minutes are #60 in country. VCU is shooting 39.2% on arc. Illinois snapped 3-game skid with 88-74 win over NC State last game; Illini is #48 experience team- they’re 1-2 vs top 100 teams. Illinois is turning ball over 21% of time, could be problem vs VCU pressure. Best team VCU beat so far is #92 LSU, on a neutral floor. A-14 favorites are 12-3 vs spread away from home, 10-2 on neutral floors. Big 14 underdogs are 15-12 vs spread, 7-9 on neutral courts.
Arizona is thin team with injury issues; PG Jackson-Cartwright is out with ankle injury. Wildcats lost by 4 to Butler in Las Vegas- they beat Michigan State in Hawai’i after falling behind 19-4 early. Gonzaga is 7-0 with neutral court wins over Florida/Iowa State; Bulldogs start two juniors, two seniors- they have two transfers who started their career in Pac-12. Arizona won five of last six games with Gonzaga, taking last three by 23-3-5 points; four of those six games were decided by 5 or less points. Pac-12 underdogs are 2-7 vs spread in neutral floors. WCC favorites are 4-5 vs spread away from home.
Long trip west for Belmont team that is 2-3, with three top 100 losses, by 14-17-9 points- they won both games vs teams outside 200, beating WKU by 21, local rival Lipscomb by 2. Bruins are shooting 27% on arc; if that doesn’t get a lot better- they’ll have long year- Belmont shot at least 36.4% from arc the last six years. Pepperdine lost three of last four games, losing last game at home to Portland State; Waves Belmont is 0-3 on road, with losses at Florida-Vandy-Rhode Island, all top 70 teams. OVC favorites are 4-1 vs spread away from home. WCC underdogs are 10-10 vs spread, 1-1 at home.
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