NCAAB Betting News and Notes Saturday, February 11th, 2017

NCAAB Knowledge

West Virginia was -7 (23-16) in turnovers in 79-75 loss at Kansas State Jan 21 in Little Apple; Wildcats won despite going 17-31 on foul line. WVU won five of last six series games, winning last three played here, by 10-4-15 points. K-State lost three of last four games; they’re 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 2-1-5 points, with wins at Baylor/Oklahoma St. West Virginia won three of last four games, are 2-3 as home favorites- they lost at home to both the Oklahoma schools. Big 12 home favorites of 8+ points are 1-15-1 vs spread this season.

Florida State won/covered its last three games, all by 18+ points; Seminoles are 2-3 on ACC road, winning at Virginia/Miami, losing at UNC-Ga Tech-Syracuse. Notre Dame lost four of last five games, is 4-1 as a home favorite, with home wins by 7-5-18-7 points, with losses to Virginia, Duke. FSU beat Notre Dame 83-80 at home Jan 18, in game where Irish made 15-21 on arc but still lost. Home side won all four ACC series meetings with last three coming at FSU. ACC home teams are 7-15-1 vs spread in games where number was 3 or less points.

Charleston blew 16-point halftime lead in last-second loss to Northeastern Thursday; Cougars are 5-1 on CAA road, with only loss by 6 at Towson. Wm & Mary lost its last two games but is 6-0 at home in CAA- they got upset at Drexel Thursday. Charleston outscored Wm & Mary 30-11 over final 9:38 of 77-67 home win over Tribe Jan 14. Cougars are 3-5 vs W&M in CAA games, losing all three visits here, by 11-30-8 points. CAA home teams are 11-5 vs number in games with spread was 3 or less points.

TCU won its last three games, is 3-2 vs spread as a road underdog, losing away games by 12, 6-13 points, with wins at Texas/K-State. Baylor are 0-5 as a home favorite, with hone wins by 2-4-10-4 points, with loss to K-State. Road team covered 10 of their 11 conference games. Baylor held TCU to 29% from floor in 62-53 road win Jan 21; Bears are 10-0 vs TCU in Big X meetings, winning home tilts by 11-26-20-28 points. Big 12 home favorites of 8+ points are 1-15-1 vs spread this season.

Xavier was just 6-32 on arc in 79-54 loss at Villanova Jan 10, Musketeers’ 7th loss in eight Big East games with Wildcats. Xavier did beat Villanova 90-83 here LY. Xavier is 4-0 since star PG Sumner got hurt; they’re 5-1 at home in Big East, with only loss to Creighton- three of their last four wins were by 5 or less points. Villanova won its last three games, all by 9+ points, but is 0-4-1 vs spread in last five games- they’re 2-2-1 vs spread as a road favorite. Big East road favorites of 4 or less points are 5-3 vs spread.

Central Florida was 6-17 on foul line, 8-30 inside arc in 64-49 loss at UConn Jan 8; Knights are 0-6 vs UConn in AAC play, losing series home games by 20-26 points. UConn won four of last five games overall, is 1-4 on AAC road, 0-3-1 as a road underdog, with losses by 2-9-20-14 points. UCF lost five of last six games, is 5-1 at home in AAC, with only loss by 5 to SMU. Knights are 3-1 as a home favorite, with home wins by 24-3-7-22-15 points. AAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 6-1 vs spread.

Michigan State lost last game by 29 at Michigan; they were down 26 at half. Spartans lost four of last six games but are 4-1 at home in Big 14, 4-0 as a home favorite, with home wins by 9-28-18-8 points, and a loss to Purdue. Iowa are 0-5 as a road underdog, losing last game at Minnesota by 11 in double OT Wednesday. Hawkeyes swept Michigan State LY by 13-17 points, after losing nine in row to Spartans before that. LY’s win was Iowa’s first in last ten visits to East Lansing. Big 14 home favorites of 6 or less points are 19-12 vs spread.

South Carolina had its 4-game win streak snapped in 4-OT loss to Alabama Tuesday; they are 4-1 on SEC road, with wins by 6-10-10-25 points and loss at Kentucky- they’re 2-1 as favorites on road. Mississippi State lost three of last four games; they’re 3-2 at home in SEC, losing by 10-7 to Alabama/Kentucky- they miss injured senior PG Ready. Home side won five of last six South Carolina-Miss State games; Gamecocks lost four of last five visits to Starkville. SEC road favorites of 6 or less points are 6-3 vs spread.

VCU won its last two games, both on road, in miraculous fashion; Rams are 3-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 20-30-38-5-7 points. Davidson beat VCU 69-63 at home Jan 14, in brickfest where teams combined to go 10-41 on arc. Home side won four of last five regular season meetings; Rams beat Davidson by 23-22 in last two A-14 tourneys. Wildcats lost its last two games, both at home; they’re 3-2 on A-14 road, losing by 4 at GW, 8 at LaSalle- they were favored in 4 of 5 road games. A-14 home favorites of 7+ points are 15-18-1 vs spread.

Arizona is 10-1 in Pac-12, but 0-4-1 as a home favorite, with home wins by 10-9-16-12-11-7 points- they’re 0-4-1 vs spread in last five games overall. California won its last five games, is 3-2 on Pac-12 road, 2-1 as a road underdog, losing by 10 at UCLA, 23 at Oregon. Wildcats rallied from down 13 in first half to win 67-62 at Cal Dec 30; teams were combined 5-26 on arc. Wildcats won last five series games, winning last two in Tucson by 28-39 points. Pac-12 home favorites of 8 or less points are 12-8 vs spread.

Gonzaga shot 68% inside arc in 79-56 home win over St Mary’s Jan 14; Bulldogs are 9-2 in last 11 series games, 6-2 in last eight played here, but they did lose 70-67 here LY. Zags are 11-2 vs spread in a weak WCC (other than St Mary’s) this year; they’re 6-1 as road favorites- they’re 5-0 vs spread in last five games overall. St Mary’s’ only other loss this year was to Tex-Arlington at home 65-51 back on Dec 8. This is only second time this season Gaels have been an underdog. WCC single digit road favorites are 5-3-3 vs spread this season.

Oregon led by as much as 31 in 84-61 home win over USC Dec 30, Ducks’ 13th win in row over USC- they won last six visits here, by 5-10-2-15-5-10 points. Oregon lost its last two road tilts, blowing 19-point lead in loss at UCLA Thursday. Ducks are 3-1 as road favorites, winning other three road games by 22-19-6 points. USC won last five games, covered last four; they’re 3-2 at home in Pac-12, losing to Cal by point, to Arizona by 7- they’re 2-3 as a Pac-12 underdog, 1-1 at home. Pac-12 road favorites of 5 or less points are 6-4 vs spread.

Wofford won a 4-OT game Thursday; four of their starters played 56;00+. Terriers won last four games, are 6-1 at home in SoCon, with only loss in OT to Citadel. Chattanooga beat Wofford 77-66 at home Jan 5, despite Terriers going 10-19 on arc; Mocs are 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last three visits here, by 14-10-9 points. UTC lost three of last five games overall; they’re 2-3 on SoCon road, with wins at WCU/Mercer- they covered one of last eight games. Wofford SoCon road favorites of 5 or less points are 2-3 vs spread.

Armadillosports.com

NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Gonzaga at Saint Mary's

The eyes of most college basketball fans as well as those with a penchant for gaming will be on Saturday's WCC clash between Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. Lead by point guard Nigel Williams-Goss (15.8 ) with Przemek Karnowski chipping in 12.1 per/contest the Zags are netting 85.6 points/game. Zags great at keeping the ball out of their own basket allow opponents 61.6 points/game on a nation second-best 37.0% shooting.

Gaels not as proficient in the scoring department drop 71.7 through the hoop with Jock Landale (16.7), Calvin Hermanson (12.8 ) leading the troops. Gaels strenght comes from a stout defense ranked second in the country allowing opponents a lowly 55.9 points/game on 41.1% from the field.

Expect Zags to do what they typically do in this series. That's win and cover. Zags making a statement in an earlier meeting defeating Gaels 79-56 have won ten of the past twelve meetings with an equally impressive 10-2 record at the betting window. Well to note, Bulldogs aren’t just the top ranked team in the Nation, the Zags are also tops at the betting window treating backers to a profitable 17-4-1 record against the betting line and that inludes a sparkling 10-2-1 in conference play.

Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Florida State at Notre Dame

Florida State (21-4 straight up, 14-8-1 against the spread) is in a first-place tie with North Carolina atop the ACC standings. Leonard Hamilton’s squad improved to 9-3 in conference action with Wednesday’s 95-71 win over North Carolina State as a 13.5-point home favorite. Jonathan Isaac led way with 21 points and seven rebounds, while Dwayne Bacon contributed 19 points and nine boards. Michael Ojo added 11 points and six rebounds.

FSU owns a 2-3 record both SU and ATS on the road.

FSU is No. 6 in the RPI Rankings, 14th in the Associated Press’s poll and No. 13 at KenPom.com. The ‘Noles are 5-1 against the RPI Top 25, 9-1 versus the Top 50 and 13-4 against the Top 100. They own home wins over Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest, Va. Tech, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville and Clemson. They’ve also won at Virginia and at Miami, in addition to a neutral-court win over Illinois. FSU’s setbacks have come at UNC, at Ga. Tech, at Syracuse and vs. Temple on a neutral floor.

Bacon, a sophomore guard, is averaging a team-best 17.6 points per game while making 38.4 percent of his launches from 3-point range. Isaac averages 13.1 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots per game.

FSU is ranked No. 14 in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 84.8 PPG. The ‘Noles are also 14th in field-goal percentage (49.0%).

Notre Dame (18-7 SU, 12-6-1 ATS) is in seventh place in the ACC with a 7-5 record in league play. In other words, Mike Brey’s team is a Final Four contender. That’s zero stretch this season when the conference might get 10 teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Notre Dame is 13-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home in the Joyce Center this year. The Fighting Irish snapped a four-game losing streak by capturing an 88-81 win Wednesday over Wake Forest as a 5.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Bonzie Colson was the catalyst with 27 points, 16 rebounds, five blocked shots, two steals and a pair of assists. V.J. Beachem added 19 points and four blocks, while Steve Vasturia finished with 17 points and seven rebounds. Matt Farrell contributed 16 points and six assists.

Notre Dame is No. 27 in the RPI, but it has lost six of seven games against Top-25 opponents. Brey’s team is 5-6 versus the Top 50 and 9-7 against the Top 100. The Irish owns home wins over Louisville, Wake Forest, Iowa, Clemson and Syracuse. It also has a neutral-court scalp of Northwestern, in addition to wins at Va. Tech, at Miami and at Pitt.

Colson (16.1 PPG, 10.8 RPG) is averaging a double-double and leads the team with 39 blocked shots. Beachem (15.2 PPG) is hitting 38.0 percent of his 3-pointers, while Farrell (14.1 PPG) is draining 44.4 percent of his 3’s and has dished out a team-best 5.4 APG. Vasturia (14.0 PPG) is making 90.5 percent of his free throws and has an 82/44 assists-to-turnovers ratio.

Notre Dame leads the nation in free-throw percentage (80.7%) and ranks 18th in makes from downtown (40.0%).

When these teams met in Tallahassee on Jan. 18, FSU captured an 83-80 win but the Irish took the cash as a 5.5-point road underdog. The 163 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 156-point total. Isaac led the ‘Noles with 23 points, 10 rebounds and seven blocked shots. Vasturia scored a team-high 18 points, burying 4-of-6 attempts from long distance. Farrell finished with 17 points and seven assists, making 3-of-4 shots from 3-point range.

The ‘over’ is 13-10-1 overall for the ‘Noles, but they’ve seen the ‘under’ go 3-2 in their five road assignments. Regardless of the venue, the ‘over’ is on a 7-3 run for FSU.

The ‘over’ is 11-8-1 overall for the Irish, 7-2 in its home outings.

As of late Friday afternoon, several offshore book had Notre Dame listed as a 2.5-point favorite.

Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s

As of late Friday afternoon, several offshore shops had Gonzaga (25-0 SU, 17-4-1 ATS) installed as a three-point road favorite.

Gonzaga is the last remaining unbeaten team and is ranked No. 1 in the country for the first time in school history. Mark Few’s team is off of Thursday’s 90-60 win at Loyola-Marymount as a 17-point road ‘chalk.’ Nigel Williams-Goss led the way with 19 points and 11 rebounds. Johnathan Williams finished with 13 points, two steals and a pair of blocked shots. Jordan Mathews, Zach Collins and Killian Tillie were also in double figures with 11 points apiece.

Gonzaga owns a 6-1 spread record in its eight road victories.

Gonzaga is ranked third in the country in field-goal percentage (51.5%), 12th in scoring (85.6 PPG), second in field-goal percentage defense (37.0%), eighth in scoring defense (61.6 PPG) and eighth at defending the 3-point line (29.5%).

Gonzaga is No. 12 in the RPI with three wins over Top-25 foes, six wins versus the Top 50 and seven wins against the Top 100. The Bulldogs have neutral-court wins vs. Florida, Iowa St., Arizona and Tennessee. They have home wins over Akron and Saint Mary’s, in addition to a victory at BYU.

Williams-Goss paces Gonzaga in scoring (15.8 PPG), assists (4.7 APG), rebounding (5.9 RPG) and steals (1.7 SPG). Przemek Karnowski is averaging 12.1 points and 5.6 rebounds per game while shooting at a 61.0 percent clip from the field. Zach Collins (10.8 PPG) is averaging 5.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocked shots per game, while Mathews (10.6 PPG) is also averaging double figures.

Saint Mary’s (22-2 SU, 11-9-1 ATS) has won 13 of its 14 home games while going 4-6 ATS. The Gaels have won seven in a row after Thursday’s 51-41 non-covering home win over Portland as 24-point home favorites. Jock Landale paced Randy Bennett’s team with 13 points, 10 rebounds and two blocked shots. Emmett Naar added 11 points and Joe Rahon was in double figures with 10 points and five boards.

Landale leads the Gaels in scoring (16.7 PPG), rebounding (9.5 RPG) and blocked shots (1.2 BPG). Calvin Hermanson (12.8 PPG) and Naar (10.1 PPG) are also scoring in double figures while making 43.5 percent and 45.2 percent of their 3-pointers, respectively. Rahon (8.8 PPG) has a stellar 139/37 assists-to-turnovers ratio and is hitting 38.5 percent of his 3’s.

Saint Mary’s is ranked No. 20 in the AP poll and No. 19 in the RPI. The Gaels are 0-1 against the Top 25, 2-1 versus the Top 50 and 4-2 against the Top 100. They have home wins over Nevada and BYU, in addition to road scalps of Dayton and Stanford. Their defeats have come at Gonzaga and vs. UT-Arlington.

Totals have been an overall wash (11-11-1) for the Bulldogs, who have seen the ‘over’ go 5-3 in their eight road assignments.

The ‘under’ is 13-8-1 overall for the Gaels, 6-5 in their home games.

When these teams met in Spokane on Jan. 14, Gonzaga rolled to a 79-56 win as a five-point home favorite. The 135 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 136.5-point tally. Williams-Goss led the winners with 19 points and six assists compared to just one turnover. Williams finished with 14 points, five rebounds and five blocked shots, while Mathews scored 16 points. Hermanson scored a team-best 12 points in the losing effort.

The ‘under’ has cashed at a 10-1 clip in the last 11 head-to-head meetings between these WCC rivals.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Ohio State guard JaQuan Lyle is ‘out’ Saturday at Maryland for personal reasons. Lyle is averaging 11.4 points, 5.0 assists, 2.9 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game.

St. Joseph’s James Demery has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for Saturday’s home game vs. UMass. Demery, who averages 13.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, missed Wednesday’s 77-70 loss at Dayton due to an illness. Nevertheless, the Hawks took the cash as 16-point underdogs.

Florida, Kentucky and South Carolina are tied for first place in the SEC with identical 9-2 records. The Gators are absolutely on fire with five straight wins both SU and ATS. They’ve won those five games by margins of 35 (at LSU), 32 (at Oklahoma), 39 (vs. Missouri), 22 (vs. Kentucky) and 12 (at Georgia). Mike White’s squad was listed as a 14-point home favorite vs. Texas A&M late Friday afternoon. These SEC adversaries will collide Saturday at noon Eastern in Gainesville on ESPN2.

John Calipari’s UK team has lost three of its last five games and is mired in an abysmal 1-8 ATS slump. The Wildcats will try to snap out of their slump Saturday at Alabama. They were favored by seven late Friday afternoon for the 1:00 p.m. Eastern tip on CBS. The Crimson Tide has posted a 4-5 spread record with three outright wins in nine games as an underdog. If the total holds (one offshore had it at 148.5 late Friday afternoon), it will be the highest the Tide has seen this season. The ‘over’ has hit in three consecutive ‘Bama games and seven of its last nine.

Georgia had covered the number in seven straight games as an underdog until Tuesday’s 72-60 loss to Florida as a 4.5-point ‘dog. The Bulldogs are in the role of puppies again Saturday at Tennessee. The Volunteers, who are 5-1 both SU and ATS in their last six games, opened as five-point home ‘chalk.’ UGA and UT will collide at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

Mississippi State owns a 3-0 spread record with two outright wins over Tennessee and South Carolina in a trio of games as a home underdog. Ben Howland’s squad will take that role again Saturday catching five points vs. South Carolina at The Hump. The Gamecocks and Bulldogs will square off at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

Last (televised) call for gamblers Saturday night? Arizona (-8.5) vs. Cal at 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

That dagger of a step-back 3-ball from about 30 feet out by UCLA’s Lonzo Ball to put Oregon away on Thursday night was a thing of beauty!

Trends to Watch - Saturday
VegasInsider.com

Irish Times

Notre Dame welcomes Florida State to South Bend in a key Atlantic Coast Conference battle between two contender at 6:00 p.m. ET. The Seminoles have won four of the past five in this series, including an 83-80 win in Tallahassee on Jan. 18. If FSU is going to win again they'll need to contain Irish junior Bonzie Colson. He has managed 15 double-doubles to lead the ACC. Meanwhile, the Irish are second in the country with a 1.71 assist-to-turnover ratio.

The Irish put the brakes on a four-game losing skid with an 88-81 win against Wake Forest on Tuesday, earning their second cover in a row. Notre Dame has posted a 6-1 ATS mark in their past seven games after covering in their previous outing. They're 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 against teams with a winning percentage over .600, and the Irish are 8-3-1 ATS in their past 12 league games. In addition, Notre Dame is 15-7 ATS in their past 22 games at home.

For the Seminoles, they have been flying against the top teams. FSU is just 4-9-1 ATS in their past 14 road games against a team with a winning home record, but they're 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine against teams with a winning overall record. After losing a pair of road games at Georgia Tech and Syracuse Jan. 25-28, the 'Noles have pieced together a 3-0 SU/ATS streak, winning by an average of 30.0 points. The 'over' is 7-3 in FSU's past 10 games overall, although the 'under' has hit in five of their past seven on the road. The 'over' is 5-1 in the past six home games against ACC foes.

Un-bear-able

Baylor has struggled lately, winning just once in their past three games. However, after a two-game skid against the two Kansas schools, the Bears picked up a much-needed victory at Oklahoma State last time out. After opening the season 7-1 ATS over their first eight games with a spread, the Bears are just 4-7 ATS over their past 11 outings.

The Bears will host Texas Christian, a team not exactly lighting it up against the number lately, either. The Horned Frogs are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven overall, and they're 1-5 ATS in their past six tries against teams with an overall winning mark. TCU is also 0-5 ATS in their past five trips to Waco, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four in this series. The road team has cashed in eight of the past 11, though, so that at least bodes well for the Horned Frogs.

As far as the total is concerned, these teams have been going in totally different directions. The 'over' is 4-1 in TCU's past five games on the road, and the over is 5-2 in their past seven games as an underdog. The over is also 7-2 in their past nine against teams with a winning overall record. For Baylor, the 'under' is 5-1 in the past six outings overall, and 4-1 in their past five at home. The under is also 6-2 in their past eight as a favorite. In this series, the 'over' has cashed in seven of the past nine.

Must-see ACC

Duke looks to build on its Battle of the Blues win against North Carolina, welcoming Clemson to Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games overall, and 0-5 ATS in their past five as an underdog. The Blue Devils have had trouble of their own, going 4-9 ATS in their past 13 overall, and 4-12 ATS in their past 16 league games. The 'under' is 8-3 in the past 11 in this serie, including 5-1 in the past six at Cameron.

Louisville hosts Miami-Florida, and the Cardinals are 10 1/2-point favorites as of Saturday morning. The Hurricanes have struggled, going 2-7 ATS in their past nine on the road, and 4-10 ATS in their past 14 league outings. The Cards are 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven games overall, and 17-5-1 ATS in their past 23 as a favorite.

Big 12 Battles

West Virginia hosts Kansas State, and they're favored to win by 10 points. The Mountaineers have had difficulty stringing together wins and covers lately, as they're just 4-3 SU over their past seven games. They have also failed to cover back-to-back games since Dec. 23-30, going 4-7 ATS over the past 11 outings. K-State is 5-1 ATS in their past six as an underdog and 6-2 ATS in their past eight on the road. However, they're just 1-3-1 ATS in their past five overall.

Kansas travels to Lubbock to battle Texas Tech, and they're just five-point favorites. The line might be way down since the Jayhawks are 1-4-1 ATS in their past six overall, 0-3-1 ATS in their past four as a favorite and 0-4-1 ATS in their past five league outings. However, Rock Chalk is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings in Lubbock, and is 5-2 in the past seven overall in this series.

Pac It Up, Pac It In

Arizona looks to get well against California. The Wildcats are 16-1 SU, and they topped Cal 67-62 as 2 1/2-point underdogs in Berkeley in the first meeting Dec. 30. Arizona has had trouble against the number lately, though, going just 1-4 ATS in the past five games. The Wildcats are 0-4-2 ATS in their past six home games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five league outings. Cal is just 2-10-1 ATS in their past 13 against teams with a winning percentage over .600, however.

Oregon hits the road for Southern California, looking for a bounce back after falling at UCLA on Thursday in excruciating fashion. It was the second loss in four games for the Ducks after a 17-game winning streak from Nov. 22-Jan. 26. The Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 overall, 9-1 in their past 10 against a team with a winning overall record and 5-1 ATS in their past six on the road. The Trojans have covered four stragiht, but they're 3-7 ATS in their past 10 at home and 1-6 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning percentage over .600. The Ducks have covered four in a row in the series, and five of the past six trips to USC.

Saturday's Upsets to Watch
By Sportsbook.ag

The month of February is all about rivalry games and resume building for the NCAA Tournament in college basketball and so far the early days of this month have lived up to that billing. This weekend there are plenty of ranked teams in action looking to strengthen their position for either a high tournament seed or a conference crown, but faltering down the stretch of the regular season can be highly detrimental. Let's take a look at some of the teams who are on upset alert on Saturday.

Game #1: #2 Villanova at #25 Xavier

Some may not think Villanova has much to worry about in this game after they beat Xavier by 25 points back in early January, but this is definitely one of those games the second ranked team in the country has to be put on upset alert.

Xavier may have got blown out in that first meeting, but they were actually hanging around at halftime (34-28) before totally collapsing in the second half. Nobody on the Musketeers could get their shots to consistently drop – they shot 29.3% from the field – and their leading scorer ws Edmond Sumner with just 11 points. Conversely, Villanova was hitting everything (53.8% shooting) and had a total team effort with five guys scoring in double-digits.

But with the scenery changing this time around, expect Xavier to shoot the ball much better as they are 12-1 SU at home and a win would put them just a half-game behind Villanova for top spot in the Big East.

There is no doubt that the Musketeers have had this game circled on their calendar since that blowout loss earlier and with Villanova starting to feel the pressure from everyone being the #2 ranked team as evidenced by their 0-6 ATS run, it may only be a matter of time before this team cracks again on the road in conference play.

Both of Villanova's losses this year have come away from home to quality conference rivals in Marquette and Butler and Xavier would love to add their names to that list.

Game #2: #1 Gonzaga at #20 St Mary's

The Gonzaga/St Mary's rivalry is one that doesn't get talked about in the same breath as the UNC/Duke, Kansas/Kansas State or Syracuse/Georgetown's of the world but it's just as intense. These two teams typically find themselves battling one another for the WCC title and this year is no different. The two teams are separated by just a half-game in the standings entering Saturday and St Mary's only loss in their last 17 games came at Gonzaga in the middle of January.

Like the first meeting between Villanova and Xavier, St Mary's had the same problem that the Musketeers did in their first meeting; they couldn't get shots to fall and couldn't stop Gonzaga from hitting everything. Gonzaga shot 64.7% from the floor that day as they used a dominant second half run to pull away and never look back. It didn't hurt the Bulldogs cause that St Mary's shot less than 40% from the floor and their top scorer – Calvin Hermanson – had just 12 points.

Those numbers should drastically change for both sides with this game being at St. Mary's as the Gaels are 13-1 SU in this building and that lone defeat was an absolute shocker to Texas-Arlington in early December.

Gonzaga remains the lone undefeated team left in college basketball and many believe this will be their last test of the regular season to keep that mark unblemished. But with the steep history of this rivalry often splitting the two matchups, don't be surprised to see St Mary's end that pipe dream for the Bulldogs and hand Gonzaga its first loss.

Arizona hosts Pac-12 foe Cal
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com

#9 Arizona goes for the season sweep of California when the Wildcats host the Golden Bears on Saturday night.

Two of the top three scoring defenses in the Pac-12 will duel on Saturday night when Arizona hosts California. The Wildcats already own a road win over the Golden Bears this season, a 67-62 (Cal -2.5) decision in the Pac-12 opener for both teams on Dec. 30. The Wildcats return home where they are undefeated this season (13-0, 6-7 ATS), and will face a Golden Bears team that is 3-2 (3-2 ATS) on the road. California comes off an impressive road win Thursday night in Tempe (68-43, Cal -4) over the Wildcats’ rivals to north, Arizona State. The win served as Coach Cuonzo Martin’s fifth in a row (two of those on the road). After reeling off 15 straight wins and enjoying the return of sophomore G Allonzo Trier from an NCAA-imposed suspension, Arizona fell hard at Oregon on Saturday night (85-58, Ari +4) in the biggest game of the Pac-12 conference schedule to date. The Wildcats were able to bounce back for a home victory on Thursday night against Stanford (74-67, Ari -13.5) but looked sluggish in pulling out a closer-than-expected victory. Coach Sean Miller’s Wildcats are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games (0-3 ATS at home). Arizona’s win in December at California saw the Wildcats starters score 62 of their 67 points. California coughed up an early 13-point first half lead (6 points at halftime) as Arizona raced past them in the second half. The Wildcats have taken six of the last seven meetings against the Golden Bears (5-2 ATS) dating back to Feb. 2014, and have also been favorites the last nine times these two teams have met. Worth noting that the total between the Wildcats and Golden Bears has alternated between Over and Under in the last nine games (the Dec. 30 meeting with a total of 128 was barely Over).

The Golden Bears may not be nationally ranked, but they’ve got the ingredients to be a scary team in March. Their impressive performance Thursday night on the road, albeit to a struggling Arizona State team, should raise some eyebrows. California’s only losses since Dec. 21 have been to top 15 teams, and all it should take is one marquee win to boost the Golden Bears into top 25 consideration. California boasts the best defense in the Pac-12 (62.3 PPG, 12th in NCAA), and that defense was on full display in embarrassing the Sun Devils to just 43 points on Thursday (25.4% FG, 12% 3PT) while outrebounding Arizona State by 19. California has held their last four opponents all under 42% FG and 33% 3PT. Thirteenth nationally (2nd in Pac-12) in rebounding margin at +7.8, the Golden Bears will look to impose their will on the glass against one of only two teams to outrebound them this season (Arizona grabbed 40 rebounds to California’s 35 in the Dec. 30 loss). The foundation for everything California does starts with talented 6’10” sophomore Ivan Rabb (15.2 PPG, 10.9 RPG). Rabb, owner of four straight double-doubles, had 16 points and 16 rebounds in the first meeting with Arizona and also notched a 15-point, 13-rebound outing as a freshman in the McKale Center last season. While Coach Martin trusts his big man to play through foul trouble (33.1 MPG, 3.3 FPG), the Golden Bears are much more effective with an aggressive Rabb on the floor. California is 10-2 when Rabb commits three fouls or less this season. California’s mediocre offense (70.2 PPG, 236th in NCAA) becomes disjoined without it’s all-league threat, relying on inconsistent perimeter play from the likes of G Jabari Bird (14.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG) and G Charlie Moore (14.0 PPG, 3.8 APG). This will be the eighth and final time the senior, Bird, faces the Wildcats, and he scored 16 points (a personal high versus Arizona) in December’s home loss.

Arizona had everything going for them with the return of preseason all-Pac-12 guard Trier (15.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG) from NCAA sanctions stemming from PED usage. The Wildcats defeated UCLA on the road in Trier’s first game back and had won 15 in a row, climbing to #5 nationally. Then the game in Eugene happened on Saturday night, with now-#5 Oregon dominating the Wildcats, 85-58. Arizona dropped to #9 in the polls and played uninspired basketball, squeaking by a bad Stanford team (that they’d beaten on the road by 39 points just a month prior). Saturday’s game against a California team that may be peaking will be a solid test to see if Arizona is truly a national title contender, or if the win at UCLA may be the height of the Wildcats’ success in 2017. Arizona has let visiting teams hang around in the McKale Center, covering just two of their last five games at home, and this very young roster may be hitting a wall. While Trier definitely has fresh legs (as he showed in a season-best 22-point, seven-rebound performance against Stanford), a rotation that relies heavily on three freshmen seems to have hit on some heavy legs. Seven-foot sensation Lauri Markkanen (15.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG) is averaging just 6.6 PPG over his last three games (4-for-20 FG; 3-for-13 3PT), although he did hit the biggest shot in Thursdays win over the Cardinal (a go-ahead three with 1:40 to go). Freshman G Kobi Simmons (11.2 PPG) has also tailed off recently (sharing Markkanen’s 6.6 PPG average over his past three), highlighted by a 1-of-8 FG showing at Oregon. Simmons has lost his starting spot back to Trier, but will be needed as the leading offensive option off of Arizona’s bench. Classmate Rawle Alkins (11.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG) had initially struggled the most to assimilate his game to Trier’s, but has since rebounded for two solid performances (a game-high 16 points at Oregon, 12 points in 19 minutes versus Stanford). Junior C Dusan Ristic (11.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG) will probably be called on as the primary defender against California’s Rabb. Ristic had a team-high 16 points on 8-for-10 FG in the first meeting between these two clubs but hasn’t scored more than 13 points in any of his last seven games. Even with the offensive talent back to fully stocked on Coach Miller’s squad, this game will be decided by defense, played between two elite defensive programs who focus on rebounding and half-court stops. Arizona held California to just 36.8% FG in the Dec. 30 win.