NCAAB Betting News and Notes Saturday, February 18th, 2017

Saturday's Upset Alert
By Sportsbook.ag

The college basketball regular season is winding down and while there will be many eyes on the Kansas/Baylor and Virginia/UNC games, it's tough to call either of those 'upsets' no matter who wins.

All four teams are highly ranked and close to one another in the rankings, so while they are important games to keep tabs on, they don't exactly qualify for this upset watch feature.

There are a few teams/games that do though so let's get right to it:

#17 Florida State @ Pittsburgh

Florida State may be 21-5 SU and on the fast track to a quality seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they aren't playing their best basketball at the moment with a 3-3 SU and ATS record over their past six. Four of their five losses this year have come on the road in ACC play, but while the ACC may be stacked, it's not like Florida State has lost to the best of the best in that regard. They are coming off a 84-72 defeat @ Notre Dame earlier this week, and that goes along with double-digit losses @ Syracuse and @ Georgia Tech during this 3-3 SU stretch.

Pittsburgh may be below those three teams in the ACC standings (Panthers are 3-10 SU in conference play), but overall they've got a similar record to the likes of 'Cuse and G-Tech and are 10-5 SU at home this season. The two teams have yet to meet this year, but with Florida State 0-3 SU and ATS as a road favorite in conference play – and they will be road favorites here, it may be best to side with a feisty home underdog in Pitt.

#19 SMU @ Houston

The 19th ranked team in the country had quite a scare on Wednesday night as they were down 15 points at home to a poor Tulane team. The Mustangs were 24-point home favorites pregame and it took a +20 point differential in the 2nd half to squeak out a five point win. Digging yourself a hole like that at home is one thing – especially against a bad team – but doing it on the road against a quality Houston squad that is trying to catch you in the AAC standings will likely be too much to overcome.

SMU's win over Tulane makes it nine in a row for the Mustangs, but they have not faired well on the road against quality competition all year. Losses @ Cincinnati, @ Boise State, and @ USC are black marks on their otherwise stellar resume, and they narrowly escaped a game @ Memphis (58-54) with a win. SMU did roll over this Houston team about a month ago (85-64) but they were simply shooting lights out that day. Percentages like 56.6% from the field, and 48.1% from three (13-for-27) aren't likely to be duplicated @ Houston.

The Cougars have also been rolling people of late with five straight wins – all by double digits – and with revenge on their minds, and a 10-3 SU record at home , don't be surprised if Houston hangs around long enough this time around to steal it at the end.

#22 Saint Mary's @ BYU

Saint Mary's came up short in their bid to give Gonzaga their first loss of the year last week and now the Gaels are basically left to play out the string and be content with another 2nd place regular season in the WCC. Unlike the other teams on this list, the Gaels are actually very good on the road with a 8-1 SU record but it also speaks to just how bad the majority of programs are in the WCC. BYU is not one of those though and the Cougars 13-2 SU record at home and thirst for revenge after losing 81-68 in the first meeting with the Gaels could help them put a little pressure on Saint Mary's for that 2nd spot.

BYU has been far from consistent this year but when they get things rolling they are tough to stop. That first meeting was particularly ugly because they allowed the Gaels to hit 55.4% of their shots from the floor and gain a 10-5 edge in three's made. Those margins were more than enough for Saint Mary's to never truly be threatened, but with little motivation left until the Conference tournament arrives, the Gaels could end up getting caught in a spot like this.

NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Wake Forest at Duke

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (15-11, 12-12 ATS) journey to Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham Saturday for a college hoops matchup with Duke Blue Devils (21-5, 11-14 ATS). Offensively, Deacons lead by John Collins (18.5) and Bryan Crawford chipping in 15.5 are netting 81.9 points/game on 47.0% shooting. On the defensive side of the ball the Deacons are allowing 76.7 per/contest on 44.8% from the field, 35.7% from long range.

The Blue Devils peaking at the right time have reeled off six consecutive wins (3-3 ATS) including a 65-55 victory at Virginia this past Wednesday. Duke lead by Luke Kennard (19.8 ) are even par offensively scoring 81.3 points/game but far more proficient at keeping the ball out of their own baskets allowing 67.5 per/game on 42.8% from the field, 29.8% from outside.

Duke with its imposing 28-4 home court stretch along with those Cameron Crazies on their side will play a big part in Blue Devils winning this contest. Duke 14-15-1 against the betting line in those home games will certainly ratched up tension for supporters. However, backers can take comfort in knowing life on the road for Wake Forest has not been easy. In twenty true road games the Deacons have been on the wrong end of the score board 16 times, on the winning end 4 times going 7-12-1 ATS.

Another positive favoring Duke, the Blue Devils have won seventeen straight games vs Deacons in front of the home audience rewarding supporters with a sparkling 14-3 record against the betting line.

Purdue hosts Michigan State
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com

#16 Purdue aims for a fifth straight Big Ten win and a season sweep of Michigan State when the team host the Spartans on Saturday afternoon.

The Boilermakers (15-7-1 ATS) will be looking to keep pace atop the Big Ten standings with Wisconsin and Maryland. Going for a sixth win in a row, Purdue has the advantage of the friendly confines at Mackey Arena (13-2, 9-3 ATS at home this season). The Boilermakers are 6-1 (6-1 ATS) at home in Big Ten play as they come off a home win on Tuesday night over Rutgers (74-55, PUR -17.5). Coach Tom Izzo’s Spartans find themselves starting to separate themselves from the middle of the Big Ten with four wins in their last five games. Michigan State has eyes on an NCAA bid, something that didn’t seem so realistic after the Spartans lost to Purdue in their first meeting on Jan. 24 (84-73, MSU +1.5), which dropped Michigan State to 12-9 on the season (at the time). The Spartans come off a 74-66 (MSU -6) home win over Ohio State on Tuesday. On the road this season, Michigan State is 2-4 (3-3 ATS). Purdue is 6-1-1 ATS over their past eight games, while in total trends, the Under is 4-0 in the Boilermakers’ last four. Michigan State is 4-1 ATS (13-12 ATS on the season) in its last five games, while the Under is 4-1 in that same stretch. That said, it’s worth noting that the Over is 5-1 in Michigan State’s six road games to date. Michigan State has dominated the Boilermakers (8-2) over the past ten meetings that date back to March, 2011. That said, Purdue has taken two of the last three (including this January). The Boilermakers are also 3-1 ATS over their past four games against the Spartans. A dominant trend in this matchup has been the total, as Over is 8-1 the past nine times the Spartans and Boilermakers have gone at it.

The Spartans have gone on a run by getting back to their defensive roots under Coach Izzo. While the season defensive numbers are satisfactory (68.5 PPG allowed, 69th in NCAA; 40.4% FG, 29th in NCAA), they’re nothing to write home about given Coach Izzo’s history churning out elite defensive teams. In their last four wins, the Spartans have tightened to allow just 63.8 PPG, and held three of those four victims to under 28% FG. Meanwhile, Michigan State’s offense continues to quietly be consistently efficient, if not explosive. The Spartans rarely go ice-cold from the field, shooting it better than 42% FG in all of their Big Ten games except one. Even including a stretch losing four out of five, Michigan State has shot 48% FG or better in seven of their last eight contests. If the Spartans are to have a shot against Purdue on Saturday, however, two things are going to have to happen: 1) Michigan State needs someone other than Miles Bridges (16.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG) to step up. Bridges had 33 of the Spartans’ 73 points in the first meeting. 2) Someone is going to have to get in the way of Purdue star F Caleb Swanigan (25 pts, 17 reb last meeting). While Michigan State shot 51.5% FG in their first meeting with the Boilermakers, it was the Bridges show, as the fabulous freshman went 12-for-17 (5-of-8 3PT). In a hostile environment on Saturday, they can’t expect that type of singular performance from anyone. Bruising F Nick Ward (13.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG) seems to finally be assimilating to an explosive, limited-minutes role as an inside compliment to Bridges’ all-around skills. Ward has five double-figure games in a row in just 18.4 MPG. Also keep an eye out for Alvin Ellis III (6.5 PPG, 42.7% 3PT) as the senior is coming off an 18-point performance (6-for-9 3PT) in the win over Ohio State.

Purdue must be feeling good about itself in the midst of a five game run, about to host a team it has already beaten on the road (in an effort that wasn’t their defensive best). The Boilermakers’ stingy defense (66.2 PPG, 45th in NCAA) let Miles Bridges score from anywhere he wanted in the first meeting, and you can be sure that Coach Painter is going to make Bridges a marked man in the rematch. That said, the marked man whenever he steps on the court for Purdue is Caleb Swanigan. One of the favorites for the Wooden Award this season, Swanigan (18.7 PPG, 13 RPG) ranks second in the nation in rebounding and leads the country in double-doubles with 22. When Swanigan takes the floor against Coach Izzo’s the Spartans (and their fans), there’s always a little extra, as Swanigan was a Michigan State commit as a McDonald’s All-American out of Indianapolis. Swanigan reneged on his verbal commitment at the last minute, choosing to switch to being a future Boilermaker on national signing day. Swanigan was doused with boos in East Lansing when the two teams met earlier this season, before getting the last laugh with a monster performance and the win. Purdue, though, has surrounded their star power forward with perfect role players, which speaks to their assist numbers (18.8 APG, 2nd in NCAA) and efficiency from three-point range (41.3% 3PT, 7th in NCAA). If you double-team Swanigan in the post, he’s a capable passer (2.7 APG) and his supporting cast will make you pay (Purdue was 11-for-21 from three against Michigan State in the January win). The Boilermakers put five other players (besides Swanigan) in double-figures against Michigan State in their first meeting, and C Isaac Haas (13.2 PPG) gives Coach Painter a unique high-low option as a seven-footer to pair with Swanigan. Vince Edwards (11.7 PPG, 44% 3PT) and Dakota Mathias (9.9 PPG, 49% 3PT) give the Boilermakers elite options beyond the arc to counteract Haas and Swanigan. Six-foot freshman guard Carsen Edwards (10.9 PPG) has also been an assertive offensive weapon as of late, scoring nine or more points in eight straight games while seeing his minutes and role offense increase as the season progresses.

NCAAB Knowledge

Virginia lost four of last six games after a 16-3 start; Cavaliers lost last three road games by total of eight points- they’re 2-0 as an ACC road underdog. North Carolina is 6-0 at home in ACC, 4-2 as a home favorite, with four home wins by 13+ points- they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five games overall. Virginia is 4-3 in its last seven games with North Carolina; teams split last four series games in Deandome. UNC beat Virginia in last two ACC tourneys, by 4-4 points. ACC home favorites of 4 or less points are 12-10 vs spread.

Road team is 11-2 vs spread in Georgia’s SEC games; Dawgs are 3-3 SU at home- they’re 7-1 vs spread as an SEC underdog, 0-1 at home. Kentucky is 4-2 on SEC road, 2-3 as a road favorite, with wins by 23-6-7-9 points, with losses at Tennessee/Florida. Georgia jumped ahead 19-5 early, but lost 90-81 in OT at Kentucky Jan 31, Wildcats’ 7th strait series win; Dawgs were outscored 27-15 on foul line, but held Kentucky to 41.8% inside arc. Teams split last four series games played here. SEC road favorites of 7 or less points are 9-7 vs spread.

Villanova made 12-26 on arc, hammered Seton Hall 76-46 in last meeting Jan 16; Wildcats won four of last five series games- teams split last four series games here (Villanova won 72-71 here LY). Villanova won its last six games, is 3-3-1 as a road favorite, with all four road wins (4-2) by 9+ points. Seton Hall won three of last four games, is 5-1 at home in Big East, with only loss by 7 to Butler- they’re 4-3 as a Big East underdog, 1-1 at home. Big East road favorites of 7 or less points are 8-11 against the spread this season.

Baylor lost three of last five games after a 20-1 start; they’re 5-1 at home in Big X, 1-5 as a home favorite, with only home loss by hoop to K-State. Kansas is 5-1 on Pac-12 road; its last three road wins are by total of 8 points- they’re 0-7 vs spread in last seven games overall, 1-5 on Big X road. Jayhawks beat Baylor 74-68 in first meeting Feb 1, Jayhawks’ 9th strait series win; Kansas won last three visits to Waco, by 17-1-6 points. Big X home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-8 against the spread.

Florida won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); they’re 5-0 as an SEC road favorite, with four of five road wins by 12+ points. Mississippi State lost three in row, seven of last nine games; they are 3-3 at home in SEC, with underdogs covering five of those six games (4-0 as a home dog). Florida won its last six games with MSU winning 82-47/62-51 in last two visits here. Double digit favorites are 13-16-1 vs spread, 3-4 on road in SEC games this season. Gators lost C Egbunu (knee) for season last game; they lack depth behind him.

Colorado won six of last seven games after starting Pac-12 play 0-7; Buffaloes are 2-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 16-1-9-2-2-11 points. Oregon are 5-1 as a Pac-12 home favorite. Ducks were upset 74-65 at Colorado Jan 28; Ducks took more 3’s (11-34) than 2’s (11-23) and were outscored 16-10 on foul line. Home side won last six regular season meetings; Buffs are 1-3 in Pac-12 visits to Eugene, losing by 9-13-20 points- their win was in ’13. Double digit home favorites are 10-16-1 vs spread in Pac-12 games this season.

Purdue made 11-21 on arc in 84-73 win at Michigan State Jan 24, game that was tied at half. Boilers outscored MSU 21-8 on foul line in East Lansing, in just their second win in last ten series games. State won three of last four visits here, but lost 82-81 in OT LY. Spartans won four of last five games overall, are 2-3 as a road underdog, with road losses by 9-5-7-29 points in six road tilts. Purdue won four in row, seven of last eight games; they’re 5-2 as a home favorite this season. Big 14 home favorites of 9+ points are 12-9 vs spread this season.

Florida State lost four of its last five road games; their only wins on ACC road (2-4) were by 2 at Virginia, 18 at Miami. Seminoles won three of last four games overall. Pitt lost nine of last 11 games, is 2-5 at home in ACC, with wins by 5 over Syracuse, in OT over Virginia. Panthers are 4-1 vs spread in their last five games overall. Florida State/Pittsburgh split their four ACC meetings; Seminoles won 71-66 in their last meeting here, two years ago. ACC road favorites of 5+ points are 5-14 against the spread this season.

Middle Tennessee is 6-1 on C-USA road, 3-4 as a road favorite, with only loss at UTEP by 3. Blue Raiders’ last 11 wins are all by 10+ points. Marshall is 5-1 at home in league, with only loss by 23 to UTEP. Thundering Herd play fastest pace in league, Middle Tenn plays 2nd-slowest. MTSU beat Marshall 69-57 at home Jan 12, Blue Raiders’ sixth win in seven C-USA meetings with the Herd. Teams split two series games in Huntington; Marshall won 82-66 here LY. C-USA road favorites of 5 or less points are 7-5 vs spread this season.

South Carolina lost two of last three games, but both losses were at home; Gamecocks are 5-1 on SEC road (2-2 as road favorite) with only loss at Kentucky. Vanderbilt lost four of last five at home, beating Tennessee here Thursday. Commodores are 6-1 vs spread as an SEC underdog, 1-0 at home. Home side won four in row, seven of last nine South Carolina-Vanderbilt games; Gamecocks lost last four visits to Nashville, by 18-11-10-15 points. Carolina forces turnovers 25.5% of time in SEC games. SEC road favorites of 3 or less points are 4-3 vs spread.

USC was 14-34 on arc, beat UCLA 84-76 in first meeting Jan 25, holding Alford to 3 points. USC won last four series games, winning 89-75 here LY after losing four of previous five visits to Westwood. Trojans won five of last six games, are 4-2 on Pac-12 road, losing by 23 at Oregon, 22 at Utah (1-2 as road dogs). UCLA won its last four games, is 1-5 as a home favorite- they allowed 84+ points in all three of their conference losses. Double digit home favorites are 10-16-1 against the spread in Pac-12 games this season.

St Mary’s is 0-2 vs Gonzaga, 13-0 vs rest of WCC; they’re 5-1 vs spread as road favorites, with only non-cover a 74-70 win (-16) at Pacific. BYU won three of last four games, is 7-1 at home in WCC, losing by 10 to Gonzaga- they’re 1-6 vs spread in last seven games. St Mary’s made 10-25 on arc, beat BYU 81-68 in first meeting Jan 5; home side won last five series games. Gaels lost last three visits to Provo, by 13-22-13 points. WCC road favorites of less than five points are 4-2-2 this season. BYU plays fastest pace in WCC games, St Mary’s the slowest.

Chattanooga won four of last five games, is 6-1 at home in SoCon; their only loss came in a game when they were a 20-point favorite. Mocs are 2-5 as a home favorite. East Tennessee State won three in row, seven of last eight games; they’re 4-2 on SoCon road, with losses by 4-3 points. ETSU was +15 on boards (43-28) in 76-71 win over Chattanooga Jan 28, Bucs’ first win in six SoCon games with UTC. Buccaneers lost by 8-10 points in previous visits here. SoCon home favorites of 3 or less points are 7-4 vs spread this season.

Armadillosports.com

NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Wake Forest at Duke

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (15-11, 12-12 ATS) journey to Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham Saturday for a college hoops matchup with Duke Blue Devils (21-5, 11-14 ATS). Offensively, Deacons lead by John Collins (18.5) and Bryan Crawford chipping in 15.5 are netting 81.9 points/game on 47.0% shooting. On the defensive side of the ball the Deacons are allowing 76.7 per/contest on 44.8% from the field, 35.7% from long range.

The Blue Devils peaking at the right time have reeled off six consecutive wins (3-3 ATS) including a 65-55 victory at Virginia this past Wednesday. Duke lead by Luke Kennard (19.8 ) are even par offensively scoring 81.3 points/game but far more proficient at keeping the ball out of their own baskets allowing 67.5 per/game on 42.8% from the field, 29.8% from outside.

Duke with its imposing 28-4 home court stretch along with those Cameron Crazies on their side will play a big part in Blue Devils winning this contest. Duke 14-15-1 against the betting line in those home games will certainly ratched up tension for supporters. However, backers can take comfort in knowing life on the road for Wake Forest has not been easy. In twenty true road games the Deacons have been on the wrong end of the score board 16 times, on the winning end 4 times going 7-12-1 ATS.

Another possitive favoring Duke, the Blue Devils have won seventeen straight games vs Deacons in front of the home audience rewarding supporters with a sparkling 14-3 record against the betting line.

Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Virginia at North Carolina

North Carolina is atop the ACC standings with a one-game lead over a trio of teams who are 9-4 in league play. Virginia is 8-5 in ACC action, leaving it in sixth place and two games back of UNC. These teams offer each other vastly different styles. UNC loves to push the pace, ranking sixth in the nation in scoring (87.7 points per game), and hits the offensive boards hard. UVA leads the country in scoring defense (55.5 PPG) and is second in defensive rebounding.

North Carolina (22-5 straight up, 13-12-1 against the spread) is unbeaten in 13 home games with an 8-4 spread record. UNC is No. 5 in the RPI Rankings, No. 10 in the Associated Press’s poll and No. 10 at KenPom.com. The Tar Heels are 2-2 against the Top 25, 7-3 versus the Top 50 and 12-5 against the Top 100. They own notable home wins over Tennessee, FSU, Va. Tech, Notre Dame, Monmouth, Chattanooga, Syracuse and Pittsburgh. Also, Carolina has won at Wake Forest and at Clemson, in addition to neutral-court victories over Oklahoma State and Wisconsin.

As of late Friday afternoon, several offshore shops had North Carolina listed as a 3.5-point favorite.

Roy Williams’s team bounced back from last Thursday’s loss at Duke by thumping N.C. State by a 97-73 count Wednesday as an 11-point road favorite. The second beatdown of the Wolfpack this season prompted the school to dismiss sixth-year head coach Mark Gottfried. Joel Berry II was the catalyst with 18 points, three rebounds, three steals and six assists compared to merely one turnover. Berry drained 4-of-8 launches from 3-point land. Kennedy Meeks added 17 points and eight rebounds, while Justin Jackson finished with 14 points.

The spread cover at N.C. State ended a four-game ATS slide for UNC. The Tar Heels have taken their defeats at Ga. Tech, at Indiana, at Miami, at Duke and vs. Kentucky on a neutral floor.

Jackson is scoring at a team-high 18.5 points-per-game clip. The junior forward is also averaging 4.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game while hitting 38.9 percent of his 3-balls. Berry (15.0 PPG) has a 101/53 assists-to-turnovers ratio with a team-best 38 steals. He has buried 41.9 percent of his attempts from 3-point land and 85.5 percent of his free throws. Isaiah Hicks is averaging 12.6 points and 5.4 RPG, while Meeks is averaging 12.6 points and 9.2 RPG with a team-high 24 blocked shots.

Virginia (18-7 SU, 14-9 ATS) has won six of 10 road assignments while posting a 7-3 spread record. The Cavaliers have been underdogs three times this year (all on the road), producing a 3-0 spread record with a pair of outright victories at Louisville and at Notre Dame.

Virginia has lost back-to-back games and three of its last four both SU and ATS. The Cavs are off of Wednesday’s 65-55 loss to Duke as five-point home favorites. They couldn’t buy a bucket, shooting 36.8 percent from the field and 25.0 percent from downtown. London Perrantes scored a team-best 14 points, but he had more turnovers (three) than assists (two) and went 4-of-11 from the field and 1-of-5 from long distance. Ty Jerome (13 points) was the only other UVA player in double figures.

UVA is No. 14 in both the RPI and the AP Top 25. The Cavs are 3-3 against Top-25 opponents, 6-5 versus the Top 50 and 10-7 against the Top 100. They have notable wins at Notre Dame, at Louisville, at California and at Clemson. In addition, UVA has home wins vs. Ohio State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, in addition to a neutral-court win over Providence.

Tony Bennett’s squad lost by two at Villanova (61-59), at Va. Tech (80-78) and vs. FSU (60-58). The Cavs’ other defeats came at Syracuse, at Pitt, vs. West Va. and vs. Duke.

Perrantes averages team-highs in scoring (12.6 PPG) and assists (3.8 APG). Isaiah Wilkins (7.5 PPG) paces the Cavs in rebounding (6.4 RPG), steals (1.1 SPG) and blocked shots (1.4 BPG).

These teams have split the season series in back-to-back years. UNC won 61-57 as a 2.5-point ‘chalk’ at the ACC Tournament last year, but UVA won a 79-74 decision as a 2.5-point home favorite in Charlottesville.

UNC learned this week that sophomore guard Kenny Williams will need season-ending knee surgery. Williams had played in the team’s first 26 games, averaging 6.2 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. He had a 56/30 assists-to-turnovers ratio, 23 steals and eight blocked shots.

The ‘under’ is 14-10-1 overall for UNC, 9-3 in its home outings. The ‘under’ is 4-1-1 in the Tar Heels’ last six games (regardless of the venue).

The ‘under’ is 14-8-1 overall for UVA, 6-3-1 in their 10 road contests. The Cavs have seen the ‘under’ cash at a 6-2-1 clip in their last nine games.

Southern Cal at UCLA

Andy Enfield and Steve Alford arrived at USC and UCLA, respectively, at the same time and are both in their fourth seasons at the schools. Enfield parlayed taking a No. 15 seed (Florida Gulf Coast) to the Sweet 16 for the first time in NCAA Tournament history into a marquee job, while Alford made the move after a successful stay at New Mexico that came on the heels of a disappointing tenure at Iowa. Both coaches went after each other in recruiting and marketing of their respective programs, establishing an immediate rivalry. Enfield used the popularity built by his ‘Dunk City’ FGC squad to put an emphasis on a fun, high-flying style he planned to implement at USC. However, in the first five head-to-head meetings between Alford and Enfield, UCLA won each time by lopsided margins of 34, 10, 17, 11 and 26 points.

The momentum from those first five wins for Alford over UCLA’s most bitter rival was halted at Pauley Pavilion on Jan. 13 of last season when USC captured an 89-75 win as a 2.5-point road underdog. Since then, the Trojans have won three more over UCLA both SU and ATS. They won an 80-61 decision over the Bruins at home last year, and then pulled a hat trick with a 95-71 demolition at the Pac-12 Tournament.

These teams met on Jan. 25 with USC winning by an 84-76 count as a seven-point home underdog. The 160 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 170-point tally. USC’s Shaqquan Aaron exploded for 23 points from off the bench, knocking down 4-of-9 launches from beyond the arc. De’Anthony Melton, a freshman guard, stuffed the box score with 13 points, nine rebounds, four steals, one block and five assists without a turnover. Elijah Stewart added 15 points, four boards, four assists, three steals and a pair of rejections. Chimezie Metu contributed 13 points, seven rebounds and two blocks, while Jordan McLaughlin finished with 10 points and eight assists. In the losing effort, Isaac Hamilton paced UCLA with 20 points on 8-of-13 shooting from the floor. Lonzo Ball had 15 points, 10 boards and four assists, but he coughed up seven turnovers. Aaron Holiday chipped in 15 points, while Thomas Welsh had 13 points, seven rebounds, three assists and three blocks.

As of late Friday afternoon, several offshore books had UCLA (23-3 SU, 13-13 ATS) installed as an 11-point home favorite.

UCLA has won 13 of 14 home games but is just 6-8 ATS at Pauley. The Bruins have compiled a 5-6 spread record in 11 games as double-digit favorites this season.

UCLA is No. 6 in the AP Top 25 and No. 22 in the RPI. The Bruins are 2-2 against the RPI Top 25, 3-3 versus the Top 50 and 8-3 against the Top 100. Their three defeats: at Oregon (89-87), at USC and vs. Arizona. Alford’s team has home wins over California, Oregon, Michigan and Stanford, while also collecting neutral-court victories vs. Nebraska, Texas A&M and Ohio State. The Bruins also have wins at Utah, at Colorado and, most importantly, at Kentucky.

Since covering the number in nine straight games, UCLA has limped to a 3-11 ATS mark in its last 14 games. However, the Bruins bring a four-game winning streak into Saturday’s showdown against USC, although they’re just 1-3 ATS in those four victories. They’re off home wins over Oregon and Oregon State last Thursday and Sunday. In the 82-79 win over the Ducks as four-point home ‘chalk,’ the Bruins were led by Ball’s 15 points and 11 rebounds, including an audacious step-back 3-ball from nearly 30 feet out at crunch time. Holiday shared a team-best scoring honors with 15 points as well.

UCLA knocked off Oregon State last Sunday 78-60 as a 25-point home favorite. Ball tallied 22 points, seven rebounds and nine assists compared to only one turnover. T.J. Leaf added 15 points, nine boards and two blocks.

Ball is a candidate for Pac-12 Player of the Year honors and is certainly in the mix to be an All-American. The freshman point guard has a 198/65 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Ball (15.4 PPG) leads the team in assists (7.6 APG) and steals (1.8 SPG), in addition to pulling down 6.1 RPG. He is shooting at an incredible – for a guard -- 54.9 percent clip from the field. Also, Ball’s passing off of his dribble penetration has helped Bryce Alford shoot at career-best percentages. Alford (15.8 PPG) is draining 45.6 percent of his launches from downtown and has a 63/30 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Leaf is averaging team-highs in scoring (16.7 PPG), rebounding (8.8 RPG) and field-goal percentage (63.0%).

UCLA leads the country in scoring (91.9 PPG), field-goal percentage (53.3%) and 3-point shooting (41.8%).

USC (21-5 SU, 13-12 ATS) has won six of its eight road games while posting a 5-3 spread record. The Trojans have been road underdogs four times, compiling a 2-2 record both SU and ATS with outright wins at Colorado and at Texas A&M.

USC saw its five-game winning streak (and 4-0 ATS roll) snapped in last Saturday’s 81-70 loss vs. Oregon as a 3.5-point home underdog. The 151 combined points elevated ‘over’ the 146-point total. McLaughlin struggled in the loss, committing more turnovers (five) compared to his assists (four). He was held to six points on 2-of-7 shooting from the field. Metu scored a team-high 16 points on 6-of-8 shooting from the floor and also contributed four rebounds and three assists. Bennie Boatwright and Stewart finished with 15 points apiece.

USC is No. 32 in the RPI, going 2-3 against the Top 25, 2-4 versus the Top 50 and 4-5 against the Top 100. Three of the Trojans’ five losses have come against RPI Top-10 foes like Oregon (twice; RPI: 7) and Arizona RPI: 9). Their other losses came at home vs. California and at Utah. USC’s best wins include home scalps of SMU, UCLA and Stanford, in addition to a neutral-court triumph vs. BYU and a road win at Texas A&M. The Trojans also have quasi-decent victories at Colorado at vs. Wyoming on a neutral floor.

Metu is averaging team-highs in scoring (14.2 PPG), rebounding (7.4 RPG), field-goal percentage (54.4%) and blocked shots (1.6 BPG). After missing all of December and January with an injury, Boatwright has scored 23, 13, 16 and 15 points in the four games he’s played in since returning. Boatwright (13.4 PPG) and Stewart (13.8 PPG) are joined by McLaughlin (12.9 PPG) as USC’s other double-figure scorers. McLaughlin averages 5.1 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game.

The ‘over’ is 13-11-2 overall for the Bruins, 8-5-1 in their home games. However, they’ve seen the ‘under’ cash in three straight games and four of their last five.

Totals have been an overall wash (12-12) for the Trojans, but they’ve watched the ‘under’ connect at a 6-2 rate in their road assignments. With that said, the ‘over’ has hit in three consecutive games for USC.

The ‘over’ is on a 7-2 roll in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these old-school L.A. rivals.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Florida was dealt a crushing blow Wednesday when John Egbunu’s MRI results showed a torn ACL that will sideline him for the rest of the season. The junior center is expected to face a 10-12 month recovery time. Egbunu’s stats (7.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 1.4 BPG) don’t do justice to the impact he makes for the Gators, who will take a seven-game winning streak into Starkville on Saturday to face Mississippi State. Egbunu’s size and physicality is similar to Patric Young, who helped UF to the Final Four three seasons ago by controlling the paint with his bruising style of play. I still see the Gators as a likely Sweet 16 team, but Egbunu gave them an elite rim protector and a defensive presence that would trouble the best of the nation’s big men. Without Egbunu, it’ll be tough for Mike White’s team to win six games in March because when Kevarrius Hayes gets into foul trouble, the Gators will have issues with their interior defense.

Florida is 6-1 ATS during its seven-game winning streak. The opening numbers offshore had UF favored by 10.5 at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs own a 4-0 spread record with a pair of outright victories in their four games as home underdogs during Ben Howland’s second season. They’ll be looking to end a six-game losing streak against the Gators in this head-to-head rivalry. Tip-off at The Hump is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Miami will be without JaQuan Newton for the second straight time Saturday as he serves a three-game suspension. The Hurricanes will play host to Clemson at noon Eastern on the ACC Network. They won but failed to cover without Newton in Wednesday’s home win over Ga. Tech. Newton averages 15.0 PPG and has handed out a team-best 3.8 APG.

Louisville will meet Virginia Tech at KFC Yum! Center at 1:00 p.m. Eastern on the ACC Network. The Cardinals will be without V.J. King (thigh bruise) and Tony Hicks (hand), who is going to be out for two more weeks. King is averaging 6.7 points and 2.3 rebounds per game, while Hicks is averaging 4.6 PPG. Rick Pitino’s team is 10-3 ATS at home and has seen the ‘under’ go 9-4.

Texas A&M’s D.J. Hogg will miss the remainder of the season with a foot injury. Hogg has tried to play through the injury since he sustained it on Jan. 21. He was averaging 12.0 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game.

In the wake of Mark Gottfried’s dismissal as N.C. State’s head coach Thursday, immediate speculation about his potential replacement centered on alum Archie Miller, who is in his sixth season at Dayton, a team that appears destined to go to a fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament. Miller addressed the media about the situation Thursday, saying, “I went to N.C. State. Played there, had a great experience. So many of those people have helped me along the way. As everyone else, you get into real life. And as you get into real life, you move along your own path. And that’s sort of where I’m at now.”

Oklahoma has had a nightmare season, one that went even further south with Jordan Woodard’s season-ending injury last week, but it received some great news Wednesday when five-star point guard Trae Young verbally committed to OU. He chose the Sooners over Kansas.

Trends to Watch - Saturday
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Top 5 Tussle

Kansas heads down to Waco to battle Baylor in a key Big 12 battle. The Jayhawks bested the Bears in the first meeting on Feb. 1, winning 73-68. However, the Bears covered the 6 1/2-point number. Kansas is 0-4-1 ATS in their past five outings, and just 4-13-1 ATS over the past 18 outings. Baylor hasn't been much better, as they're 2-3 SU over their past five outings, and just 5-8 ATS in their past 13 battles.

The Jayhawks have managed a 2-5-1 ATS mark in their past eight road games, and 0-6-1 ATS in their past seven Big 12 battles. In addition, Kansas is 0-4-1 ATS in their past five games against a team with a winning straight up record. They're also just 5-16 ATS in their past 21 games after a straight-up win last time out. For the Bears, they haven't been a whole lot better, going 1-5 ATS in their past six at home and 1-4 ATS in their past five as a favorite. Baylor is 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games against a team with a road winning percentage over .600, however.

The Jayhawks have dominated this series, going 9-1 ATS in their past 10 trips to Waco while posting a 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine meetings with the Bears. The road team is also 19-7-1 ATS in the past 27. Total bettors might be interested in the 'under', as it has cashed in five straight meetings at Baylor, while going 6-1-1 in the past eight overall in the series. The under is 8-3 in the past 11 for Kansas, and 7-3 in their past 10 league games. The under is also 6-1-1 in their past eight against a team with a winning straight up record. The under is 5-1 in Baylor's past six home games, and 7-3 in their past 10 as a favorite.

All Saints Day

St. Mary's (Calif.) goes on the road to battle Brigham Young in a battle between the No. 2 and 3 teams in the West Coast Conference. As of Saturday morning the Gaels were favored by 4 1/2 points, climbing from an open of 3 1/2. The Gaels are an impressive 7-2 ATS in their past nine as a road favorite, and 16-5-1 ATS in their past 22 as a favorite between one and 6 1/2. They're also 5-2 ATS in their past seven road games after three or more straight outings at home. The Gaels picked up an 81-48 win against Loyola Marymount, rebounding after their 10-point setback to Gonzaga last Saturday.

On the flip side, BYU looks to avenge an 81-68 loss against SMC in Moraga back on Jan. 5, as the Gaels covered a 10 1/2-point number. The Cougars have been terrible against the number in recent weeks, going 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven games overall and 0-3-1 ATS in their past four games at home. They haven't been very good as an underdog, going 42-91-4 ATS in their past 137 games as an underdog, or a cover rate of just 31.6 percent during the span.

The favorite has covered five in a row in this series, and the 'under' is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Provo. In fact, the 'under' has been the play for both sides recently. The under is 9-4-1 in their past 14 as a road favorite and 43-19-1 in their past 63 road outings. The under is 7-1 in the past eight home games for the Cougars against a team with a winning road record, and 5-1 in their past six against teams with a winning percentage over .600.

Coast With The Most

Duke has a 1:00 p.m. ET tip against Wake Forest at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Demon Deacons gave it their all, but came up just short in an 85-83 loss at 'The Joel' back on Jan. 28 in the first meeting. The 'over' hit in that game, and is 10-1 in the past 11 for Wake. While the 'under' is 3-0-1 in the past four for Duke, the 'over' is 8-4-1 in the past 13 overall.

Notre Dame travels to Raleigh to face North Carolina State in a noon battle, and all eyes will be on the Wolfpack. While N.C. State announced they Mark Gottfriend has been fired. However, he will serve on the bench for the remainder of the season in an odd situation. The Wolfpack are reeling, losers of six in a row and just one game out of the basement in the ACC. The Irish look to add to the Pack's woes, as Notre Dame is 5-2-1 ATS in theri past eight road games and 9-4-1 ATS in their past 14 as a favorite. State is 0-4 ATS in their past four at home, 0-6 ATS in their past six overall and 5-16-1 ATS in their past 22 league games.

Louisville hosts Virginia Tech at the KFC Yum! Center looking to cool off the Hokies. Va. Tech topped rival Virginia last Sunday, and they won at Pittsburgh for their 18th win in 25 tries. The Hokies have covered three in a row, and nine of their past 13 home outings. Virginia Tech is also 7-3 ATS in their past 10 as a road underdog, and 24-11 ATS in their past 35 in the ACC. The Cardinals are 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine overall, and 13-5-1 ATS in their past 19 at home. As a home favorite the Cards are 12-5-1 ATS in their past 18 games.

Bedlam - Part Deux

Oklahoma State looks to add to the woes of Oklahoma, and they are favored by 11 1/2 points as of Saturday morning. The Cowboys won the first battle by a 68-66 score on Jan. 30 in Norman. It's a down year for the Sooners, sitting at 9-16 SU, and they're just 1-5 ATS in their past six games overall. The Sooners have actually covered in nine of the past 11 in this series, but the home team is 12-5 ATS in the past 17 in this series.

The 'under' might be the play, as it is 5-1 in Oklahoma's past six, including the first meeting, and the under is 4-1 in OK State's past five overall. The 'under' is also 5-0 in the past five meetings in this series.

In Other Action...

Tennessee-Martin seeks their 19th victory of the season at the Show Me Center in Cape Girardieu against Southeast Missouri State. The Skyhawks won the first meeting Jan. 14 by a 79-69 victory as 5 1/2-point favorites. Martin is 0-7 ATS in their past seven as an underdog, but 12-4-1 ATS in their past 17 against teams with a losing overall record. The Redhawks of SE MO State are 0-4 ATS in their past four OVC games and 6-13-1 ATS in their past 20 as a home favorite.

Wright State rolls up to Cleveland State in search of their 19th win of the season, while the Vikings are hopeful of avoiding loss No. 20. Some might find the Pick 'em line rather curious, but the Raiders are just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games and 3-7 ATS in their past 10 trips to Cleveland. The Vikings have been really bad, however, going just 11-24-2 ATS in their past 37 overall, 3-11-2 ATS in their past 16 home games against a team with a winning road mark and 6-19-2 ATS in their past 27 against a team with a winning straight up record.