NCAAB Betting News and Notes Saturday, January 14th, 2017

NCAAB Knowledge

Duke doesn’t play true road games in pre-conference and it shows; they’re 0-2 in ACC road games, losing by 14 at Va Tech, 16 at Florida St. Blue Devils are 4-3 vs top 100 teams this year; they’re won two of three ACC games with Louisville, losing 71-64 here LY after winning by 11 year before. Louisville won three of last four games but was up 21 at half vs Pitt in last game, only won by 5. Cardinals scored 63-53-70 in losses; does Duke defend well enough to hold them to that? ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-2 vs spread. Duke is without Coach K/big man Jefferson.

Clemson lost its last three games after an 11-2 start; they’re 7-3 in top 100 games, have played #13 schedule but loss at Ga Tech last game was ugly. Tigers are better when they run, which doesn’t happen a lot against UVa. Virginia is 3-1 in true road games with only loss in OT at Pitt- they’ve made 44.4% of 3’s in ACC games. Cavaliers are 6-3 in top 100 games; they’re playing slowest tempo games in country. Virginia won its last five games with Clemson, winning by 5 in last visit here. ACC single digit home underdogs are 6-2-1 vs spread.

Miami was outscored 10-1 down stretch in home loss to Notre Dame Wednesday, its second loss in row after an 11-2 start. Hurricanes are 1-1 in true road games, winning at No Florida, losing by 15 at Syracuse- they’re shooting 48% on line in ACC games. Miami won its last two games with Pitt by 4-2 points; last three series games were decided by a total of 10 points. Pitt lost three of last four games, with two of those in OT- they lost last game by 5 at Louisville, after being down by 26 at one point. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-2 vs spread.

Minnesota is 9-2 in its last 11 games, with both losses to Michigan St; Gophers are 7-3 vs top 100 teams, 2-1 in Big 14 road games, winning at Purdue/Northwestern. Penn State won its last three games with Minnesota by 5-4-9 points; Gophers lost 63-58/86-77 in last two visits here. Nittany Lions split first four league games, losing by 10 to Northwestern in only game in this gym- they beat Michigan St in Philly last game. Penn State is 1-5 vs top 100 teams this season. Big 14 home favorites of less than 5 points are 6-2 vs spread.

Notre Dame is 4-0 in ACC, with all four wins vs top 40 teams behind steady play of junior PG Farrell, a much-improved player. Irish won only two true road games by total of six points, at Pitt/Miami. Notre Dame won its three ACC games with Virginia Tech by 7-25-2 points, winning 85-60 in last visit here. Hokies are 2-0 in ACC home games, beating Duke/Syracuse- they’re 0-2 on road. Tech is 5-3 vs top 100 teams; they’re shooting 39.9% on arc for season ACC home teams are 5-3-1 vs spread in games where spread was 4 or less points.

Butler is 3-2 in Big East games, 2-0 at home, beating Providence/Villanova- they lost last game by 11 at Creighton. Xavier is 6-1 vs Butler in Big East games, winning two of three visits here; Musketeers swept Butler LY, winning by 19-17 points- they’re 2-1 in Hinkle Fieldhouse in Big East tilts. Xavier lost by 25 at Villanova Tuesday, ending their 6-game win streak; they’re 1-3 in true road games, with only win by 5 at Georgetown. Big East home favorites are 13-3 against the spread, 8-2 if laying single digits.

Florida State won its last 12 games; they’re deep (#22 in bench minutes) team that is 4-0 in ACC, winning by hoop at Virginia in only ACC road game. FSU’s only loss this season was by 3 to Temple on a neutral floor. North Carolina won its last six games with Florida State, winning last three series games here, by 20-21-4 points- UNC won 106-90 in Tallahassee LY. Tar Heels won last three home games, by 43-28-51 points; they’re grabbing 42.4% of their own missed shots in ACC play. ACC home favorites of 6 or more points are 5-4 vs spread.

Houston is 4-1 in AAC with three of those wins on road; they’re holding AAC foes to 35.4% inside arc in league play. Cougars are #38 experience team that starts two juniors, two seniors. Houston beat Central Florida twice LY, by 24-27 points; LY’s win here was Houston’s first in last five visits to UCF. Knights are turning ball over 22.4% of time, are 3-2 vs top 100 teams; they had 5-game win streak snapped in 64-49 loss at UConn in last game. UCF is also experienced, #31 in country. AAC home underdogs are 1-9 vs spread this season.

Baylor jumped to #1 in country for first time ever, then turned ball over 29 times in 21-point loss at WVa Monday; Bears won by 2 at Oklahoma in only other true road games this season. Baylor won its last three games with Kansas State by 27-7-10 points; Bears are 3-2 in last five visits to Little Apple. K-State won eight of last 10 games, losing last two on road; they beat Oklahoma/Texas by 11-3 points in Big 14 home games. Wildcats have best eFG% in Big X games so far this month. Big 14 favorites of 3 or less points are 1-4 vs spread this season.

Iowa State won its last eight games with TCU, winning by 13-11-13-13 points in four visits here, but Horned Frogs have made quantum leap this year. TCU is 13-3, 2-2 in league, losing to top 5 teams Kansas/WVa- their two league wins are both by 3 points. Cyclones are #4 experience team in country; they’re 3-1 in big X, losing by hoop at Baylor, winning by 10 at Oklahoma State. ISU lost by 14 at Iowa in its other true road game. Cyclones protect ball better than anyone in country. Single digit home favorites are 2-6 vs spread in Big X play this season.

Utah is 3-2 in its last five games with UCLA, winning last two meetings here by 5-32 points- they beat Bruins 71-39 here two years ago, but those Bruins ain’t these Bruins. UCLA made 19-31 3’s in win at Colorado Thursday; they’re 30-51 on arc in last two games, are #1 in country, at 44.1% behind arc. Utah is healthy now; they drilled USC by 22 here Thursday. Utes won five of last six games with only loss by 10 at Arizona- they beat Colorado by 16 in other Pac-12 home game. Pac-12 home underdogs are 4-5 this season, 2-3 if getting single digits.

Wichita State is 14-3 in its last 17 games with Illinois State, but lost two of last three, losing 58-53 here LY, their first loss in last six visits to Normal. Shockers won last six games, are 2-0 on Valley road, winning by 14 at No Iowa, 8 at Indiana St- their three losses are all to top 50 teams. Redbirds won last six games, are also 5-0 in Valley, beating Evansville by 12, Missouri State in OT in their two Valley home tilts. Illinois State has best eFG% defense in MVC so far. MVC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 4-2 vs spread.

St Mary’s swept Gonzaga in regular season LY but Zags beat them 85-75 in WCC final that kept Gaels out of NCAAs. Gonzaga is 9-2 in last 11 series games, winning four of last five meetings in the Kennel. Zags are 16-0 this season, 6-0 vs top 100 teams, their last close game was 69-62 win Dec 3 over Arizona. St Mary’s won its last nine games; three of their five WCC wins came on road- their only loss was by 14 to Tex-Arlington at home. Gaels also have road wins at Dayton and Stanford. WCC single digit home favorites are 5-6 vs spread.

Armadillosports.com

Saturday's Elite Eight
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Florida State at North Carolina

A victory here would put the Seminoles two games up on every team in the ACC except Notre Dame, so continuing their unprecedented run in league play with a road upset here would put them on the fast track for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with two months left until Selection Sunday. FSU comes off one of the finest wins in program history, an 88-72 rout of Duke where they shot 57.5 percent in the second half, beating Duke in all phases. This is no fluke. The ‘Noles have a lottery pick in leading rebounder and shot blocker Jonathan Isaac, a 6-10 forward that grew eight inches in high school like Anthony Davis did and retained his guard skills. Xavier Rathan-Mayes has had a quiet season but led the way against Duke with 21 points, while top scorer Dwayne Bacon (17.8 ppg) is often flammable. Sophomore Terance Mann has played his best of late, and 7-footer Michael Ojo leads a stable of capable role players. The Tar Heels have a veteran team with considerably more big-game experience and will be in their comfort zone at home, but they’ve got injury concerns. Backup center Tony Bradley, a freshman standout, will be sidelined by concussion, a big blow softened only slightly be the fact Theo Pinson has returned after missing most of the season healing from a broken foot. Borderline first-round pick Justin Jackson (17.7, 4.9) and Kennedy Meeks (12.9, 9.7) will have to do the heavy lifting up front. UNC is perfect at the Smith Center this season, improving to 5-2 ATS after last Sunday's 107-56 rout of NC State. The Heels lost only once at home last season and won in Tallahassee 106-90 in its highest-scoring game.

Saint Mary's at Gonzaga

Although they likely worked on some details of the game plan for this colossal WCC matchup, neither the Zags nor Gaels were caught looking ahead on Thursday night. Gonzaga hung a 93-55 beating on Loyola Marymount to remain the nation’s lone unbeaten, while Saint Mary’s was even more impressive in a 74-33 win at rested Portland. They led 37-9 at the break. The rematch will be held in Moraga on Feb. 11, and there’s probably going to be another in the WCC Tournament. Saint Mary’s won both regular-season meetings a year ago to win the title, but lost in the conference tourney championship game. Not surprisingly, the ‘Zags were able to speed up the pace in that final, while the other two were lower-scoring. Saint Mary’s employs the second-slowest tempo in the country and can lock you down defensively. Tune in for the point guard battle between Nigel Williams-Goss and Emmett Naar, but stay for the big man wars between SMC’s Jock Landale, Dane Prineau and Evan Fitzner against Gonzaga’s Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins. Gonzaga lost four games at home last season, a rarity in Spokane, so this one will be personal as they attempt to remain perfect. Gonzaga has beaten eight consecutive opponents by double-digits. Saint Mary's has done the same in nine straight since a 65-51 home loss to Texas-Arlington on Dec. 8. It should be noted that the only times this season that Gonzaga failed to cover the spread, the game went 'under.'

Duke at Louisville

The Blue Devils lost three straight in January last season, but ultimately rallied in a down year to follow up a national championship with a Sweet 16 appearance. They haven’t lost consecutive games since, but are in danger of doing so after a bleak effort in Tallahassee became the first setback since Jeff Capel took over for Mike Krzyzewski as he recovers from back surgery. Duke is 0-2 on the road in league play and in danger of falling under .500 in the conference this deep in for the first time since 2007, so we’ll see how resilient this group can be without Coach K. Currently, controversial guard Grayson Allen is taking the bulk of the criticism for his on-court extra-curriculars, but he’s actually being a good teammate by taking most of the heat off the true key to Duke’s success going forward, the continued emergence of freshmen Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles. With senior big man Amile Jefferson sidelined by a bone bruise in his foot, the kids must lead the charge. Duke can’t beat Louisville solely with Allen, Luke Kennard and Matt Jones firing from the perimeter. The Cards are too sound defensively and generate miscues with their pressure. Forward Deng Adel overcame a concussion and has been the x-factor of late, while guards Quentin Snider and Donovan Mitchell have been sound. Rick Pitino complained that his team isn’t “fundamentally sound” after it allowed Pitt to nearly come all the way back from a 24-point second half deficit thanks to Jamel Artis’ 43 points. It might help the ‘Ville to have suffered that near-collapse since it should ensure they’ll be locked in for the 40 minutes it’s going to take to win this one. This will be the only meeting barring an ACC Tournament matchup. Duke is 2-1 against the Cardinals since they joined the conference. The over has prevailed in its last four games.

Xavier at Butler

This is a huge game for the Bulldogs, who are in danger of falling two games back of Big East’s beasts if they falter at home. Fortunately, they’re 10-0 in Indianapolis, which includes a 9-0 mark at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse. They’ll need a little home cooking to come into play against a Musketeers squad looking to avoid their fourth road loss in five games, having also remained perfect at home. Xavier is hoping to bounce back from a 79-54 loss at Villanova where it shot 29 percent and missed 26 of 32 3-pointers. The Muskies shot 57 percent in a 74-57 victory at Hinkle last season, handing Butler its last lost in its building, and has a three-game winning streak in the series. Butler hasn’t lost two straight since last January, a stretch of 30 games, and has shown off its resiliency by bouncing back from losses with takedowns of Creighton, Georgetown, Texas Tech, Cincinnati and Providence. That’s impressive. The key matchup here features terrific wings Kelan Martin (16.8, 5.5) and Trevvon Bluiett (17.3, 5.9), two of the top players in the Big East, squaring off. Both come off bad games, but Bluiett got the better of their duels last season as Martin shot just 33 percent against Xavier’s defense, averaging just 13 points. Martin is slumping in conference play, averaging just 12.0 points on 30 percent shooting.

UCLA at Utah

Although Arizona and Oregon remain undefeated in Pac-12 play, these teams are right behind them and will look to keep pace in what should be a fun atmosphere in Salt Lake City. UCLA responded to the challenge of playing in Boulder’s altitude with a 104-89 thrashing of Colorado, riding Bryce Alford’s 37-point night and nine 3-pointers. The Bruins set a program-record with 19 3-pointers on just 31 shots. UCLA averages 93.4 points per game and owns the country’s second-highest shooting percentage. They’ll run up against one of the better defenses in the league in the Utes, which held USC to 36.7 percent shooting in Thursday’s 86-64 loss. Utah took advantage of the Trojans missing 12 layups and lacking rhythm, but also impressed by making nine straight shots just before halftime to put the game away. They shot a season-best 9-for-17 from beyond the arc, so we’ll see if they can stay hot against a team they won’t be able to slow down as effectively with their zone. Utah will need to score to pull off this upset, but do have quality size in bigs David Collette and Kyle Kuzma that should be able to generate some matchup problems. Utah has athletes in Lorenzo Bonam, JoJo Zamora and Devon Daniels that should be active on the perimeter, but they’re going to have to make shots. Shooter Sedrick Barefield would be a valuable x-factor if he can get it going. Despite their gaudy offensive numbers, the ‘under’ is actually 4-3 in UCLA’s last seven, but both teams have seen the ‘over’ thrive in their last two contests.

Notre Dame at Virginia Tech

Notre Dame has opened ACC play with four consecutive wins, marking the first time in school history that it has done so in either the Big East or this league. Remember, Fighting Irish basketball remained an Independent until 1995, so this streak doesn’t date too far into their marvelous history but remains impressive. They’re looking to improve to 5-0 in the top league in the country by winning their first three road games, having squeaked past both Pittsburgh and Miami. Notre Dame largely controlled Thursday’s win over the Hurricanes before falling behind and rallying to rescue the result. Steve Vasturia, who beat Pitt with big shots in OT, helped put the game away after V.J. Beachem’s huge bucket. Junior Bonzie Colson (15.9, 10.8 ), one of the nation’s premier power forwards, was held to a season-low eight points and Notre Dame still won, so this group will be confident going into Blacksburg. The Hokies are 24-6 at home over the last two seasons and rank among the top 26 in the country in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. They’ve been explosive at home, coming in undefeated. The over is perfect in Virginia Tech’s games in the new year. Notre Dame is 3-0-1 against the number in ’17. Guard Seth Allen returned from a head injury suffered in Tech’s first league loss at NC State that kept him out of the FSU setback, so they’re happy to have his stabilizing presence back in the lineup for this key game they hope to capture in order to climb back above .500 in the conference.

Baylor at Kansas State

The Bears opened the week No. 1 for the first time in school history but were then thumped by West Virginia. The result was fairly predictable given the environment in Morgantown and the pressure the Mountaineers put on teams, taking them out of their comfort zone. Although termed an “upset,” West Virginia was a 5.5-point favorite and covered easily in an 89-68 rout, but Baylor should be more in their element here despite K-State opening as a slight favorite too. This game should be played at a more deliberate pace, which allows Baylor to exploit its length in the post and out on the perimeter. Prior to their trip to Morgantown, the Bears had surrendered more than 63 points only once. It will be interesting to see whether they’ll be able to clamp down on a Wildcats offense that has scored at least 65 in all but of their games. Coming off a 66-65 loss at Texas Tech that it blew down the stretch, K-State is perfect in Manhattan this season, but has feasted on a relatively light home schedule and held serve as definitive favorites against Texas and Oklahoma. Wesley Iwundu (12.3) leads five double-digit scorers in a balanced attack that could have success against Baylor by moving the ball around patiently. D.J. Johnson and Dean Wade will get their chance to prove they can hang with two of the elite bigs in the conference in Johnathan Motley and Jo Lual-Acuil. The Wildcats knocked off Buddy Hield-led Oklahoma at home when it was ranked No. 1 last season, but lost to Baylor by 10 points in Manhattan and in double-OT in Waco.

Georgia at Florida

Kentucky, South Carolina and Florida have separated themselves as the class of the SEC, but the Dawgs have a shot to crash the party despite opening as a double-digit underdog entering this trip to Gainesville. Georgia was extremely impressive in a 69-47 win at Ole Miss and has the potential to go on a run, but needs to show that it can hang with the top teams in the league since they’ve lost games to Clemson, Kansas and Marquette already in addition to opening 2017 with a 67-61 home loss to the Gamecocks. Forward Yante Maten and guard J.J. Frazier are two of the conference’s top talents, so the potential is there. The Gators, ranked third nationally in RPI, will look to snuff out Georgia’s aspirations by winning their seventh straight and are perfect at home in the newly renovated and renamed Exactech Arena at O’Connell Center. Florida has won their first three games there, averaging 82.3 points in taking down Little Rock, Ole Miss and Tennessee. Guards Kasey Hill and Ke’Vaughn Allen have formed the best backcourt in the league outside of Lexington. Thus far, the Gators have eluded an SEC-wide trend that has seen road teams go 17-7 against all other schools. Georgia’s Mark Fox is 3-9 against Florida and has never won in Gainesville, a feat that has eluded the Dawgs since 2002. Maybe they’ll appreciate the renovation, but it will take a double-double from Yaten, who most avoid foul trouble, to pull off an upset. Frazier will also need another guard to step up and take some pressure off him, so keep an eye on sophomore freshman Turtle Jackson or freshman Jordan Harris as a potential x-factor.