NCAAB Betting News and Notes Saturday, January 21st, 2017

NCAAB Knowledge

Georgia is 4-2 in SEC, losing to So Carolina by 6, in OT at Florida by 4- they won two of three SEC road tilts, winning at Auburn/Ole Miss. Dawgs are best SEC at getting to foul line and they make 73.9% once they get there. Texas A&M is 1-5 in SEC with home losses to Tennessee/Arkansas- they blew 12-point second half lead to Hogs in last game. Georgia won four of its last five games with A&M, winning by 7-9 points in last two visits here- Aggies won 79-45 in Athens LY. SEC home favorites of 3 or less points are 2-9 vs spread this season.

Louisville won its last four games, hammering Clemson by 32 in first game without injured PG Snider on Thursday. Cardinals are 1-1 in true road games, losing by 7 at Notre Dame, winning by 15 at Ga Tech. Florida State won 13 of last 14 games; they’re 5-1 in ACC, 4-0 at home, with three wins by 15+ points. ACC foes are shooting 46.1% outside arc vs FSU, just 42.9% inside arc. Louisville won by 22-19 points in its to ACC games with Florida State; teams were rivals in old Metro Conference years ago. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-4 vs spread.

Oklahoma State is 0-6 in Big X after a 10-2 pre-conference mark; Cowboys’ three Big 12 road losses are by 3-4-7 points. OSU is in bottom three of league in all nine Big X defensive metrics. Texas Tech won its last three games with Oklahoma State, by 1-2-10 points; State lost its last three visits to Lubbock, by 4-1-2 points. Tech is 3-0 at home (0-3 on road) in Big X, with wins by 1-1-6 points- they’re #8 experience team in country, starting three juniors, two seniors. Big X home favorites of 6 or less points are 5-5 vs spread this season.

Creighton is without PG Watson test of the way, a big blow. Bluejays are 5-1 in Big East, with only loss to Villanova- they won home games over Seton Hall by 14, Butler by 11. Creighton is 4-2 vs Marquette in Big East play, winning two of three here— Marquette pulled 66-61 (+7.5) upset here LY. Golden Eagles are 0-3 on Big East road, losing by 3-12-8 points- they won their other road game, by 10 at Georgia. Big East home favorites of 7+ points are 11-0-1 vs spread this season. Impossible to measure Creighton without Watson; they have no real backup PG.

South Carolina is 12-0 with Thornwell in lineup; they were 3-3 while he was gone. Gamecocks are 5-0 in SEC, with road wins at Georgia/Tennessee. Kentucky won its last six games, is 6-0 in SEC, with home wins by 42-26-20 points- they did lose at home to UCLA on Dec 3. Wildcats scored 93.8 pts/game in their last six games. Kentucky won eight of last nine games with South Carolina, winning last three by 15-34-27 points. Gamecocks lost their last 11 visits here, last five all by 15+ points. Double digit favorites are 5-9 vs spread in SEC games this year.

UCLA won its last six games; they’re 3-0 at home in Pac-12, winning by 10-14-22 points while scoring 90.7 pts/game. Arizona won its last 11 games, is also 6-0 in Pac-12, winning road tilts by 5-39-7 points while allowing 60 pts/game. Arizona won four of last six games with UCLA but lost four of last five games in Pauley Pavilion, last three of which were all decided by 5 or less points. Arizona is #324 experience team, UCLA #278; lot of talent on both sides, not much depth. Pac-12 home favorites of 6 or less points are 5-3 against the spread. Allonzo Trier is finally eligible to play; greatly helps Arizona’s depth, not sure if he is rusty, but he’s been practicing.

Wisconsin won 11 of last 12 games, is 2-2 in true road games, losing at Creighton/Purdue; Badgers are 4-1 in Big 14, allowing 63.2 pts/game- they’re forcing turnovers 23.1% of time in Big 14 games. Minnesota lost its last two games, scoring 48.5 pts/game, after a 15-2 start; Gophers are shooting 41% on arc, 44.8% inside arc in league play. 4 of 6 Minnesota Big 14 games were decided by 4 or less points or in OT. Wisconsin won its last five games with Minnesota, winning by 13-13 points in last two visits here. Big 14 road favorites are 4-6.

West Virginia is 4-2 in Big X, with both losses in OT; they’re 2-1 on Big X road, winning by 17 at OSU, 2 at Texas. Mountaineers force turnovers 24.9% of time in Big X games. K-State is 2-3 in its last five games, losing by 2-1-9 points- Big X teams are making 45.9% on arc against them. Wildcats get to foul line a lot, have best eFG% in conference. West Virginia won its last five games with Kansas State, winning by 6-4 points in its last two visits to the Little Apple- they won here in double OT LY. Big X road favorites are 4-4 vs spread this season.

Fresno State won five of last six games with Nevada; they beat Wolf Pack 77-76 in first meeting Dec 31, rallying back from down 10 in 2nd half (Fresno was 13-27 on line). Bulldogs won three of last four visits to Reno, but lost 77-72 in OT here LY. Fresno is 0-3 on Mountain West road, losing by 5-7-9 points; they are forcing turnovers 20.3% of time in MW play. Nevada played only six guys last game; they struggled guarding bulky Edo in first meeting— Oliver got in foul trouble, played only 22:00. MW home favorites of 7+ points are 5-2 vs spread this season.

Mississippi State was 51-77 (20-52 in SEC) the last four years (since Stansbury was fired); they are 12-5 this year, 3-2 in SEC, with 2nd-youngest team in country. Bulldogs are 3-2 in SEC, 2-0 on road, winning at LSU/Arkansas. Tennessee won five of its last six games with Mississippi State; road team won last four series games. Bulldogs won two of last three visits to Knoxville. Vols lost four of last five games; they’re 0-2 at home in SEC, losing to Arkansas/South Carolina. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 2-12 against the spread this season.

Indiana has injury issues with Anunoby/Morgan hurt; Hoosiers won three of last four games- they’re 1-2 in Big 14 home games, losing by 4-7 points to Nebraska/Wisconsin. Michigan State is 4-2 in big 14, losing last two road games, by 9 at Penn State, 5 at Ohio State. Spartans won their last five games with Indiana, winning by 17-2 points in last two visits here. State is turning ball over 20.1% of time in league; they’re #313 experience team- Indiana is #309. Big 14 home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-7 against the spread.

Baylor is 17-1 with only loss at West Va; they’re 5-1 in Big X, with three wins by 9+ points- they rebound 44% of their own misses, but also turn ball over 24% of time in Big X games. Bears are 2-1 on road, winning at Oklahoma/K-State, losing at WVU. TCU is 3-3 in Big X, 2-1 at home- they lost by 6 to Kansas, beat Oklahoma/Iowa State. Baylor is 9-0 vs TCU in Big X games, winning by 26-33-7-15 points here. 5 of TCU’s 6 Big X games were decided by 7 or less points. Road teams are 5-4 vs spread in Big X games with spread of 3 or less points this season.

Duke is 1-2 since Coach K left, beating BC by 11 in only home game; they lost last two games by 16-9 points, giving up 83 pts/game- they miss injured C Jefferson. Blue Devils were just 12-36 on arc last two games; they need more from Allen. Miami lost three of last four games, losing 96-79 at Wake Forest Wednesday. Hurricanes is shooting just 58.7% on foul line in ACC tilts. Miami won four of last six games with Duke, winning last two by 16-11 points- they won two of last three visits to Durham. Single digit home favorites are 13-8 in ACC games this season.

Armadillosports.com

Indiana and Michigan State battle on Saturday
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com

Michigan State and Indiana collide in a battle of struggling Big Ten blue bloods.

The Hoosiers host the Spartans on Saturday afternoon in a matchup of two previously-ranked teams in search of improved play. Michigan State (9-9 ATS) last played against Ohio State on Sunday and has had six days to marinate over their first loss to the Buckeyes (72-67, MSU +2.5) in their last five meetings. Coach Tom Izzo’s Spartans are 4-2 in conference play (4-2 ATS) but 1-2 (2-1 ATS) on the road this season. They’ve split their last four contests (2-2 ATS) with home wins over Rutgers and Minnesota interjected with losses to Penn State in addition to the aforementioned defeat at Ohio State. Coach Tom Crean’s Hoosiers also got into a dogfight against the Nittany Lions, but were able to pull out a buzzer beating win in Happy Valley on Wednesday thanks to James Blackmon Jr’s winning three (78-75, IND -3.5). Indiana has now won two straight to push their Big Ten record to 3-3 (2-4 ATS). The win at Penn State came with a heavy cost, however, as Indiana recently learned they’ll be without their best defensive player, O.G. Anunoby (11.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 55.7% FG), for the rest of the season. Anunoby, a rising NBA prospect who averaged 1.3 blocks and 1.3 steals per game for the Hoosiers, will undergo knee surgery after getting hurt battling for an offensive rebound in the Penn State win. Indiana has been without Anunoby for three relatively easy non-conference wins in early December this year already, but did get upset by IPFW on Nov. 23 in a game where Anunoby exited with illness after just 13 minutes played. Indiana will look to do as Ohio State just did to the Spartans and knock them off for the first time in the past five games in this matchup (dating back to 2013). A former assistant to Coach Izzo, Coach Crean and the Hoosiers have lost their last two home matchups against Michigan State and are 3-7 (3-7 ATS) overall since Jan. 2011. In addition to the out-for-the-season Anunoby, F Juwan Morgan (7.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG) is questionable for the Hoosiers with a foot injury. Morgan sat out the win against Penn State on Wednesday.

Michigan State hasn’t been effected by long layoffs (5-5 in 3+ days rest), but you can be sure that Coach Izzo will have his Spartans ready to go against his pupil on the other sideline after a lackluster performance in Columbus last Sunday. Freshman Miles Bridges (15.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG) reasserted himself as the focal point of this offense with 24 points and nine rebounds on 9-for-12 from the field, but unfortunately the rest of the Spartans reverted back to their form in early November. Michigan State will only be truly dangerous when the weapons that emerged from Bridges’ injury in early December stay consistent, along with a now-healthy Bridges. G Cassius Winston (6.5 PPG, 5.7 APG) has seen his role dwindle with the return of Bridges, as the freshman point guard who was so instrumental to Michigan State’s success last month is now relegated back to a bench role. Winston only had one point and two assists in 11 minutes against Ohio State. Fellow freshman Nick Ward (13.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG) also had his second straight sub-par game mired in foul trouble. Ward scored just nine points (as he did against Minnesota) and has played a combined 31 minutes in his past two contests. Junior Lourawls Nairn Jr. (4.3 PPG, 4.0 APG), while not the talent that the freshman Winston is, has stepped back into the forefront of Coach Izzo’s rotation as the starting point guard, as he handed out eight assists against Ohio State. Nairn is arguably Michigan State’s best perimeter defender. Without Anunoby to contend with on the defensive end, Michigan State will be in good position to expose an Indiana defense that had been putting together it’s best season on that end of the floor in years. Penn State guard Tony Carr was able to get to the free throw line at will [the Nittany Lions shot 31 free throws, total] against Indiana without Anunoby to contend with, so look for Coach Izzo to implore his guys to take the ball hard to the basket.

Indiana is one of the better offensive teams in the country (84.3 PPG, 14th in NCAA) while shooting 49.7% FG (11th in NCAA). Unlike previous seasons, their rebounding is now a strength instead of a weakness (41.3 RPG, 8th in NCAA) thanks to guys like Anunoby, Morgan and F Thomas Bryant (11.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.6 BPG). If Morgan sits out, along with Anunoby, that’s almost 11 rebounds per game that Coach Crean will have to replace. G Robert Johnson (13.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 42.3% 3PT) stepped up in the void for the shorthanded Hoosiers on Wednesday night, providing 17 points and seven rebounds. Johnson, one of the more underrated players in the conference is having a breakout junior season, with 11 games out of his last 12 in double-figures. As a player who saw his playing time and scoring average dip in his sophomore year, Johnson has proven to be an invaluable commodity for Coach Crean. The star of Wednesday’s win, G James Blackmon Jr. (17.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 42% 3PT) will be relied upon more than ever. Always known for offense more than his defense, Blackmon Jr. will need to find an extra gear to keep his shot-making elite while taking on more responsibility at the end of the floor that’s plagued him in being mocked as “the college version of James Harden”. Bryant, the imposing 6’10” sophomore, will have to do the opposite of Blackmon Jr, as he’s a guy that brings it on the glass and defending the paint, but now has to fulfill his promise as someone who can dominate on offense with the absence of Anunoby. Bryant was a similar recruit to now-Big Ten star Caleb Swanigan, and while nobody is asking for games of 20 points and 20 rebounds off the bat, Bryant has that kind of ceiling (four double-doubles this season). Unfortunately Bryant has single-digit scoring outputs in four of his last six games, but does have a chance to feast on Michigan State’s inexperienced and foul-prone front line.

Saturday's Elite Eight
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

A look at the day's top eight college basketball matchups, ranked in order of most attractive.

Arizona at UCLA

Arizona shooting guard Allonzo Trier has yet to play this season because he tested positive for a PED, but the drug has completely cleared his system, leaving him eligible to pla.y in this huge Pac-12 clash Although the ‘Cats have missed him, they’ve won 11 straight games since a loss to Gonzaga at Staples to open December and are in the mix to win their conference and hit all their preseason goals. Finnish 7-footer Lauri Markkanen (17.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg) has emerged as Arizona’s go-to guy and looks like a NBA lottery pick, coming off yet another big game in Thursday’s victory against USC where he shot 8-for-12 from the field and ended up with 23 points. Markkanen, a 7-footer, is shooting 17-for-25 from 3-point range in 2017. UCLA has its own likely lottery pick in point guard Lonzo Ball, an elite distributor who has drawn comparisons to Jason Kidd while averaging 8.2 assists per game. The Bruins, collectively, are shooting 44 percent from 3-point range and have six players averaging in double-figures. Shooters Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton are capable of taking games over from the perimeter, and have been especially dominant at home.

Louisville at Florida State

Louisville didn’t miss a beat in beginning a stretch without point guard Quentin Snider, who will miss at least two weeks due to a strained hip flexor. Despite his absence, the ‘Ville dominated Clemson on Thursday, 92-60. Snider and Donovan Mitchell have formed an extremely solid backcourt for Rick Pitino, with the injured point guard ranking second on the team in scoring (12.1) and 3-pinters made (34) while leading the Cards in assists (4.0). Mitchell took on duties as the primary distributor, joined in the backcourt by 6-6 freshman wing VJ King. Junior center Anas Mahmoud followed up posting career-highs of 17 points and 11 boards against Duke with just six points and five rebounds against the Tigers, so Pitino’s squad put their depth on display and will need all hands on deck in order to prevail in Tallahassee. FSU has been perfect at home and comes off an 83-80 win over Notre Dame on Wednesday. The Seminoles are hoping to make the Cardinals the fourth consecutive nationally-ranked victim to fall in Tally, having beaten the Irish, Duke, Virginia Tech and Florida at home. Lottery lock Jonathan Issac scored 23 points to beat Notre Dame, scoring nine during an 11-1 run that helped put the game away.

South Carolina at Kentucky

This meeting between the SEC’s two unbeaten will test the young Wildcats, who have to prove they can handle the challenge of facing a veteran team that is capable of slowing the game down by putting forth the type of defensive effort UK hasn’t seen all year. De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk have formed the top backcourt in the SEC, but they’ll run into one of the most explosive guards on their schedule in Sindarius Thornwell, Kentucky scores 93.3 points per game, third in the country, while the Gamecocks give up 59.4 points per game, which ranks fifth-best. It will definitely help the Wildcats to be home for this one, which outside of the Florida games, appears to be the biggest matchup of the conference season for John Calipari’s squad, who won’t run into South Carolina again until a potential meeting in the conference tournament. Last year’s meeting was extremely physical, but Kentucky ran away for an 89-62 win. Calipari was ejected in the game, fueling his team’s game-deciding run.

Miami (FL) at Duke

Jim Larranaga has defeated Duke in four of six since taking over Miami's program in 2011, winning consecutive games and having won in Durham the last time they visited. The The Blue Devils are under .500 this deep into the season for the first time since 2007. Miami ranks second in the conference and 12th nationally in allowing 61.5 points allowed. The Blue Devils are coming off back-to-back losses to Florida State and Louisville and could lose three consecutive games for the second time in roughly a calendar year, having done so from Jan. 13-18 last season. Jeff Capel is attempting to move to 2-2 as Duke's interim head coach, but is 1-0 at home as he fills in for Mike Krzyzewski after back surgery. Grayson Allen has been more of a distributor of late, attempting to get talented freshmen Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles going while picking his spots offensively. Look for more of the same at home in Durham.

Michigan State at Indiana

The Spartans have won their last five against Indiana and have beaten the Hoosiers in Bloomington in four of the last six. They have won 13 of 19 in the series but must contain an Indiana offense that ranks first in the conference in scoring (84.3), rebounding margin (10.6) and field goal percentage (.497). With Miles Bridges no longer operating under a minutes restriction, the Spartans are in great shape here since Indiana will be toiling without standout wing O.G. Anunoby, who has been ruled out for the remainder of the season. Tom Izzo's team looked like they would be flirting with potentially falling into NIT contention prior to the start of conference play, but have signifcantly picked up their level.

Wisconsin at Minnesota

Even before the Gophers emerged as a threat in conference play thanks to a strong start, this was always going to be a challenging matchup given the rivalry implications. Minnesota scored just 18 points in the second half against Penn State and runs into a senior-laden Badgers squad eager to shine at the Barn. Nigel Hayes has led the way and will be a tough matchup for Minnesota's younger forwards, and the key here for Richard Pitino's squad to even flirt with an upset will be to get Nate Mason going and make the crowd a factor.

West Virginia at Kansas State

The Wildcats are hoping to have guard Kamau Stokes back in the lineup to help them break the pressure against a Mountaineers squad that makes no secret of the fact they intend to press for 40 minutes, but if he can't go, the Kansas City Star project that senior guard Carlbe Ervin would probably move into the starting lineup, but K-State has the option of moving wing Wesley Iwundu to point guard, inserting freshman Xavier Sneed into the lineup. Sophomore guard Barry Brown can also handle the ball. West Virginia's style isn't as formidable on the road, so they'll have to make shots in order to survive an upset bid.

Baylor at TCU

Although new head coach Jamie Dixon has hit the ground running in Fort Worth, the Horned Frogs haven't defeated a ranked opponent and are hoping to beat the Bears to record a signature win. TCU is 11-1 in Fort Worth, with the lone loss coming against then-No. 3 Kansas, 86-80, on Dec. 30. If they're able to handle Baylor's length and manage to keep pace on the board, a projected sellout crown could fuel the fire against an in-state rival.