NCAAB Betting News and Notes Saturday, January 28th, 2017

Kansas at Kentucky
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The fourth season of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge will take place Saturday. The Big 12 has dominated the first three years of the event, owning the series by margins of 7-3, 6-4 and 7-3 from 2013-2014 through last season.

The highlight of this year’s matchups will go down in Lexington, where Kentucky and its rabid fan base will welcome Bill Self’s Kansas squad to Rupp Arena. Kentucky and Kansas are the two winningest programs in college basketball history. UK has 2,222 wins, while KU has won 2,204 games.

Kentucky (17-3 straight up, 12-8 against the spread) will be looking to avenge a 90-84 overtime loss at Kansas last season. It was an unfathomable loss for UK’s betting backers, who were holding tickets for a 5.5-point underdog. The Wildcats had led 46-40 at halftime.

The departed Wayne Selden Jr. scored 33 points for the winners, who also had Frank Mason (13 points) and Devonte Graham (11) in double figures. Mason had eight rebounds, four assists and two steals, while Graham dished out five helpers compared to merely one turnover.

Tyler Ulis paced the ‘Cats with 26 points, eight assists and three steals. Isaiah Briscoe had 12 points, five assists and four rebounds.

Both schools will be in bounce-back mode after losing road games earlier this week. Kansas saw its 18-game winning streak snapped at West Virginia, while UK took its first SEC loss at Tennessee.

John Calipari’s team lost an 82-80 decision in Knoxville as a 10.5-point favorite. The 162 combined points fell ‘under’ the 167-point total. Robert Hubbs III was the catalyst for the Volunteers with 25 points and seven rebounds, while freshman forward Grant Williams stuffed the stat sheet with 13 points, six rebounds, four blocked shots, three steals and six assists without a turnover.

In the losing effort, Malik Monk matched Hubbs’s game-high honors with 25 points, but he made only 3-of-13 attempts from 3-point range and had more turnovers (five) than assists (four). Edrice ‘Bam’ Adebayo hit 7-of-8 from both the field and the free-throw line in a 21-point effort. De’Aaron Fox finished with 17 points, four assists and two steals, while Briscoe contributed 11 points, 14 rebounds and five assists.

UK has won 10 of its 11 home games while producing an 8-3 spread record. This will be UK’s first single-digit home favorite situation of the season. In fact, Cal’s ‘Cats have only been single-digit ‘chalk’ three times this year. They’ve 2-1 both SU and ATS in those contests, beating North Carolina (103-100; -1) and Michigan State (69-48; -8 ) on neutral courts.

Kentucky took its two other defeats at Louisville by a 73-70 score as a 1.5-point favorite and at home vs. UCLA (97-92; -11). UK is ranked No. 2 at KenPom.com, fourth in the Associated Press’s poll and fourth in the RPI Rankings. The ‘Cats are 4-3 against the RPI Top 50 and 9-3 versus the Top 100. Their best wins include neutral-court scalps of UNC and Michigan St., in addition to home victories over Arkansas and South Carolina.

Monk is averaging a team-high 21.8 points per game while hitting 49.8 percent of his shots from the field. The true freshman is a future lottery pick with a smooth jumper and explosive moves off the dribble. Monk is making 39.9 percent of his launches from 3-point land and 82.9 percent of his free-throw attempts.

Fox (16.2 PPG) has a 118/43 assists-to-turnovers ratio and a team-high 32 steals. Briscoe is a box-score bully, averaging 14.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.0 steals per game. Adebayo provides an interior presence, averaging 13.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. He has a team-best 34 blocked shots and is shooting at a 62.4 percent clip from the field.

Kentucky is second in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 92.2 PPG. The ‘Cats are 13th in the country in field-goal percentage (49.6%).

Kansas (18-2 SU, 6-12 ATS) has won four of its five road games, but has limped to a 1-4 spread record in those assignments. The road loss came Tuesday in Morgantown, where West Virginia ran KU out of the gym, 85-69, as a 3.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 154 points dipped ‘under’ the 159.5-point total.

Josh Jackson had a team-best 22 points, four rebounds and four assists before fouling out. (He also had one of the sickest dunks of the season in traffic!) Graham and Mason were also in double figures with 17 and 15 points, respectively.

KU is No. 2 in the AP poll, No. 6 in the RPI and No. 9 at KenPom.com. The Jayhawks own a 5-1 record versus the RPI Top 50 and a 10-2 mark against the Top 100. They have home wins over Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Stanford, Nebraska and UNC-Asheville. In addition, Self’s team has beaten Duke and Georgia on neutral courts while also capturing victories at TCU and at Iowa State.

KU’s only other loss came in the season opener to Indiana, which knocked off the Jayhawks 103-99 in overtime at the Armed Forces Classic in Honolulu. The Hoosiers won outright as six-point underdogs.

Mason is a legit candidate for National Player of the Year honors. The senior point guard is averaging team-highs in scoring (19.8 PPG), assists (5.2 APG), field-goal percentage (51.2%) and 3-point percentage (52.8%). Mason also has 26 steals.

Jackson is a true freshman who like Monk and Fox, is a future lottery pick. He relentlessly attacks the basket and has incredible athleticism. Jackson is averaging 15.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.3 blocked shots per game. Jackson’s weakness to date has been his work at the charity stripe, where he’s making only 55.8 percent of his FTs.

Graham (13.6 PPG) has a 94/31 assists-to-turnovers ratio, averages 1.6 SPG and drains 39.2 percent of his shots from downtown.

Kansas is ranked sixth in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (41.8%), 10th in field-goal percentage (49.8%) and 16th in scoring offense (84.6 PPG).

KU has been an underdog twice this season, beating Duke 77-75 as a 2.5-point ‘dog at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Mason led the way with a team-best 21 points. The other ‘dog spot came in the aforementioned loss in Morgantown.

Kansas isn’t just dealing with the loss at WVU, but a pair of off-court developments have been making news in Lawrence. On Wednesday, news broke that the University of Kansas police are investigating the reported rape of a 16-year-old girl at McCarthy Hall, a dorm that houses the KU men’s basketball team and other male students.

According to a police report obtained by the Kansas City Star, the alleged rape and three additional crimes took place on Dec. 17 and 18 between 10:00 p.m. and 5:00 a.m. The other crimes are furnishing alcohol to a minor, contributing to a child’s misconduct and possession of drug paraphernalia.

The police report lists five KU players as witnesses: Frank Mason III, Mitch Lightfoot, Lagerald Tick, Tucker Vang and Josh Jackson. Self told The Star, “From what I have learned, a witness can be many things, including a person who can potentially provide information, whether an eyewitness or not, or has been present before, during or after an alleged incident.

“All comments moving forward will come from the university or KU police department. If information is brought to us that warrants action at any time, the appropriate action will be taken.”

Then on Thursday night, Kansas announced that sophomore forward Carlton Bragg has been suspended indefinitely. Bragg is averaging 15 minutes per game, contributing 6.1 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. “This violation is not connected to the alleged incident in McCarthy Hall on Dec. 17,” Self said in a statement.

The ‘over’ is 13-7 overall for UK, 7-4 in its home games.

The ‘under’ is 10-8 overall for the Jayhawks, 4-1 in their road outings. They’ve seen the ‘under’ cash in five consecutive games.

These storied programs have faced each other nine times since 1998. UK has won outright in five of those nine meetings, but KU has a 5-4 spread record. The ‘Cats have won three of the last four encounters both SU and ATS. The ‘under’ is 6-3 in the last nine UK-KU showdowns.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Other SEC/Big 12 Challenge matchups include Texas A&M at West Virginia (noon Eastern, ESPN) Florida at Oklahoma (2:00, ESPN), Kansas State at Tennessee (2:00, ESPN2), LSU at Texas Tech (2:00, ESPNU), Texas at Georgia (4:00, ESPN), Iowa St. at Vanderbilt (4:00, ESPN2), Arkansas at Oklahoma State (4:00, ESPNU), Baylor at Ole Miss (6:00, ESPN2) and Auburn at TCU (6:00, ESPNU).

Florida guard Canyon Barry sat out Wednesday’s blowout win at LSU after spraining his ankle at Monday’s practice. Barry is listed as ‘questionable’ at Oklahoma. The grad transfer from College of Charleston is the Gators’ second-leading scorer with a 12.4 PPG average.

This will be just the second time OU head coach Lon Kruger has faced Florida, the school he took to its first Final Four in 1994 behind the play of Craig Brown, Dan Cross and Andrew DeClercq. Kruger bolted UF to take the Illinois job after his 1995-96 team failed to make a third straight NCAA Tournament. Frustrated by playing second fiddle to the football program and the inability to sign the nation’s top player, Vince Carter from nearly by Daytona Mainland High School, who chose North Carolina over UF and FSU even though the Gators had just gone to the Final Four, Kruger welcomed the chance to go to Illinois, a basketball-first school. His exit was the best thing that ever happened to the UF hoops program. It led to one of the greatest hires in college basketball history when former AD Jeremy Foley plucked Billy ‘The Kid’ Donovan away from Marshall even though he was only 30 years old at the time. Of course, Donovan would lead the Gators to back-to-back national titles and 14 NCAA Tournaments during his dynastic 19-year tenure. On the way to the first of four trips to the Final Four in 2000, Florida and Illinois collided in the Round of 32 two days after Mike Miller’s buzzer beater allowed UF to slip past Butler. My Dad and I had great seats in the lower level at Lawrence-Joel Coliseum in Winston Salem that Sunday afternoon when Florida destroyed Kruger’s Illinois team 93-76 to advance to the Sweet 16. Teddy ‘Ballgames & Parlays’ Dupay and Udonis Haslem led the way for the Gators, who would literally go right through Tobacco Road on their way to their first national-title game, where they were beaten down by Michigan St.’s ‘Flintstones’ squad led by Mateen Cleaves. Prior to the loss to the Spartans, UF beat top-seeded Duke in the East Region semifinals at the Carrier Dome before blasting Doug Gottlieb’s Oklahoma State team. Then in the Final Four, UF beat up on UNC.

In case you were wondering (I was), all of the charges filed against Cleaves for an alleged sexual assault in October of 2015 were dismissed last year.

Taking a page out of his mentor Bobby Knight’s playbook, Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski has banned his players from the team’s locker room and from wearing school gear on campus. Coach K remains on indefinite leave from the team after undergoing back surgery earlier this month. He called a team meeting Tuesday night at his house one day after the Blue Devils lost at home to N.C. State. They play at Wake Forest on Saturday.

Is this finally the year for Northwestern? For those not in the know, the Wildcats have NEVER head their name called on Selection Sunday. That’s right, there have been zero trips to the NCAA Tournament that started in 1939 in the program’s history. However, after Thursday’s 73-61 win over Nebraska as an 8.5-home favorite, Chris Collins’s team is 17-4 overall, 13-5 ATS and 6-2 in Big Ten play for the first time since 1943-44. Northwestern has won five in a row both SU and ATS. The Wildcats’ four defeats have come to RPI Top-50 foes, including a 70-68 loss at Butler (#3 RPI) and a pair of 70-66 setbacks vs. Notre Dame (neutral court) and vs. Minnesota (#19 RPI). They don’t have the best RPI (#33), going 2-4 versus the Top 50 but 6-4 against the Top 100. They have a home win over Wake Forest, in addition to a neutral-court scalp of Dayton and road win at Penn State, at Nebraska and at Ohio State. Barring a big-time collapse, this is most likely the year in Evanston.

Oregon won for a school-record 17th consecutive time Thursday by winning 73-67 at Utah as a 1.5-point road favorite in Salt Lake City. After missing one game with a foot injury, guard Dillon Brooks returned to the lineup to score 19 points to help the Ducks join Arizona atop the Pac-12 standings with identical 8-0 conference records. They host Arizona in Eugene next Saturday (2/4).

After losing 86-80 at Harvard on Dec. 6, Northeastern didn’t taste defeat for more than five weeks. The Huskies won eight in a row and went 7-0 ATS in the process, hooking me up with winners galore. They even won at Breslin Center against Michigan St. However, following Thursday’s 51-49 loss to Elon as a 5.5-point home ‘chalk,’ Northeastern has dropped four in a row both SU and ATS. The losing streak began with a 74-67 loss at Towson on Jan. 14. The Huskies can avenge that defeat and get back on track when they host the Tigers on Saturday.

Two SEC coaches could be issued pink slips really soon: LSU’s Johnny Jones and Missouri’s Kim Anderson.

NCAAB Knowledge

Texas A&M is just 11-8 but only team that beat them by more than 11 was Kentucky (100-58). West Virginia lost two of last three games but hammered Kansas by 16 Tuesday in their last game; Mountaineers force turnovers 30.6% of time, #1 in country, but part of that was they’ve played #346 non-conference schedule (23.9% in Big X games), so they’ve bullied lesser teams. Texas A&M won its last two games by total of five points; they’re 1-6 vs top 50 teams, with best win over #49 Va Tech. Aggies start a freshman and three sophomores.

Home side won five of six Notre Dame-Georgia Tech ACC games; Irish lost two of three visits here, last two of which were decided by total of four points. All six games were decided by 8 or less points or in OT. Notre Dame lost two of last three games; they’re 3-1 on ACC road, with wins at Pitt/Miami/Va Tech. Yellow Jackets are 4-4 in ACC despite being picked last by most everyone; they’re 3-1 at home in ACC with only loss to Louisville- they beat Fla St/Clemson/UNC at home. ACC road favorites of 5 or less points are 3-2-1 vs spread.

Florida State was rolling until getting whacked by 22 at Ga Tech last game- they were down 41-15 at the half!!! Seminoles split last four games after a 16-1 start; they’re 1-2 on ACC road, with 60-58 win at Oakland, losses at UNC/Ga Tech. Syracuse won three of four ACC meetings with FSU, winning the two here by 13-13 points. Orangemen are making 78.5% on foul line, #1 in ACC play; they’re 4-0 at home, 0-4 on road in ACC, with home wins by 15-11-23-5 points. ACC road favorites of 3 or less points are 3-1-1 against the spread.

Tulsa is 5-2 in AAC despite losing 7 of top 8 scorers from LY; Hurricane is 3-0 in AAC home games, winning by 2-10-7 points- they get to foul line a lot and make 77.5% once they get there. Central Florida lost its last two games by 5 points each; they’re 1-2 on AAC road, losing by 15 at UConn, winning at Tulane. Tulsa won its last three games with UCF, by 2-15-8 points; Knights are 0-6 in last six visits to Tulsa, losing by 2-18-9-20-5-15 points. AAC home teams are 6-2 vs spread this season in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Young Maryland team (#319 experience) won its last five games, with three of those on road; Terrapins are 10-1 this season in games decided by 8 or less points. They turn ball over 20.8% of time in Big 14 games, but are tied for first anyway. Minnesota lost its last four games after a 15-2 start, losing last three games by 6 or less points- they’re 3-5 in Big 14, with 3 of 8 games going OT. Minnesota/Maryland split first two Big 14 meetings; Gophers pulled upset win LY as a 10-point underdog. Big 14 home favorites of 5 or less points are 12-7 vs spread.

St Bonaventure won its last three games, allowing 56 pts/game, but against lower part of A-14; they’re 5-2 in league, 2-1 on road, losing by 17 at Richmond. Bonnies won five of last seven games with Rhode Island, beating Rams by hoop in Olean LY; teams split last four meetings here, all of which were decided by 6 or less points. URI lost three of last five games; Garrett missed last three games. Rams are 2-1 at home in ACC, beating UMass/St Joe’s; they’re making only 56.1% on foul line. A-14 home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-10 vs spread.

Duke lost three of last four games, allowing 83 pts/game in losing last two on road, at Florida St/Louisville; Blue Devils are 1-3 in true road games this season- they beat UNLV in Vegas, but game was off-campus and UNLV is terrible anyway. Duke won 12 of last 13 games with Wake Forest, winning last four by 8-43-16-8 points- they won three of last four visits here, with wins by 8-5-8 points. Deacons are 3-5 in ACC, 2-2 at home, losing by 5 to Clemson, 6 to Carolina. ACC road favorites of 5 or less points are 3-2-1 vs spread.

Nevada had miracle comeback at New Mexico two weeks ago; they were down 14 with 1:16 left and Lobos had ball, but Wolf Pack won in OT. Nevada was 15-32 on arc, Lobos 26-40 on line yet Wolf Pack won by only a point. Nevada is 3-1 at home in MW, winning by 25-3-7 points, losing to Fresno. New Mexico is best team in MW at getting to foul line; they’re won last four games, scoring 79.3 pts/game. Lobos are 3-1 on MW road, with only loss by 4 at Utah State. Mountain West home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-10 vs spread.

I know this isn’t a conference game, but Kentucky won its four SEC home games by average of 26 points- they’ve struggled some on road. Wildcats are #345 experience team that played #10 pace thus far- they’re 3-2 vs top 50 teams, are 17-3 vs schedule #25. Kansas had its 18-game win streak snapped Tuesday in West Va; Jayhawks will be without backup big man Bragg, who is suspended here. Kansas is shooting 41.8% on arc, #4 in country but only 63.2% on foul line (#332). Kansas starts two juniors, two seniors; they’re a much older team.

Alabama won 68-58 at Mississippi State January 3, in brickfest where teams combined to go 7-34 on arc; Crimson Tide won seven of last eight games with MSU- three of last four series games were decided by 4 or less points, with State winning 67-66 in Tuscaloosa LY. Bulldogs are much improved at 13-6; they’re 2-1 on SEC road, with wins at LSU/Arkansas, are 2-5 vs top 100 teams, with two best wins Arkansas/Texas A&M. Alabama won seven of last nine games, is 5-2 in SEC, with four wins by 10+. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 7-16 vs spread.

Cal-Irvine/Cal-Davis are tied in loss column atop Big West; Anteaters are 8-2 in last ten games vs Davis, sweeping Aggies by 1-21 points LY- they won 62-61 here. Irvine had won eight in row before bad home loss to Cal Poly Thursday; UCI is a very young team. especially with Nelson out hurt again. Davis won six of last seven games, with loss at Riverside by 6; Aggies are at home for first time in three weeks- they’re 2-0 at home in league, beating UCSB by 26, Cal Poly by 4. Big West road favorites are 2-3 against the spread this month.

Colorado finally got its first Pac-12 win (1-7) Thursday, beating Oregon St by 7 after losing its previous two games in OT; Buffaloes lost at home to the LA schools by 15-3 in their other home games in Pac-12. Colorado is #39 experience team but is #10 in league at protecting ball, #8 on arc- they’ve underachieved. Oregon is first in Pac-12 in 7 of 9 defensive metrics; they’ve won 17 games in row, are 7-0 in Pac-12, with road wins by 22-19-6 points. Ducks’ last loss was Nov 21 to Georgetown on a neutral floor. Pac-12 road favorites of 5+ points are 7-5 vs spread. Ducks won three of last four games with Colorado, but are 0-4 in Pac-12 visits to Boulder.

St Mary’s won 12 of last 13 games; they were tied at half with USF Thursday, still won by 20. Gaels play slowest tempo in country (Santa Clara is 10th-slowest); they’re an experienced team that is 12-2 in last 14 games with Santa Clara, winning six of last seven visits here. St Mary’s is 3-1 on WCC road, with wins by 12-11-41 points and loss at Gonzaga. Santa Clara is 4-1 at home in WCC with loss by 31 to Gonzaga; they’re 44-108 (40.7%) on arc in last four games. WCC road favorites of 9+ points are 6-2 vs spread this season.

Armadillosports.com

Dave's CBB Saturday
By Dave Essler

Kansas/Kentucky: People are all about Kansas losing to WVU, and I do think that's important, but they're barely mentioning the fact the Kentucky lost their last game at Tennessee. The little bit of extra motivation may come from Kentucky losing at Kansas in overtime last year - but I won't blindly play the Wildcats here. Teams that HAVE beaten them have been the up-tempo/athletic teams, but taking Kansas and their lack of FT shooting isn't something I want on the road, either. This one's probably better to watch, but there are those that bet TV games - so Kentucky and under (better IMO) if you made me. Either they shut Kansas down defensively, or Kansas slows it down enough win the 1H. I don't think Kansas can hang for 40 minutes just because their bench is much shorter.

Kansas State/Tennessee: One of the more interesting games of the day here. UT is not longer under the radar, especially at home. One has to wonder whether the win over Kentucky has them too high or this is a bit of a letdown. One thing I do know is that Barnes coached against K-State (granted it was Frank Martin) for years, and that has to count for something. I keep waiting for UT's size disadvantage to hurt them, and it just doesn't. The case for K-State is that they are a better team, IMO, playing in a better Conference. The line at a PK either suggests UT is that easy, or they're begging people to take them. K-State been very good on the road - but I think that the UNDER is the best play in this game.

Miami/UNC: I can't tell if they're disrespecting Miami at home, giving them two-plus possessions, or not. I'm quite inclined to take the points. If you look at the Heels' road games - you might, too. An eight point win at BC, but more importantly allowing 82 points. A six point win at Wake, three point win at Clemson, and a loss at Tech. The problem here is the UNC has almost too much length for the 'Canes, and the 'Canes play enough defense to make North Carolina work. I just see too many Miami turnovers and quick points for UNC to take the points - but I do like the under.