NCAAB Betting News and Notes Saturday, January 7th, 2017

NCAAB Knowledge

Major trap game for Butler after they beat Villanova during week, now visits Georgetown team that is 0-3 in Big East for first time ever. Bulldogs won last three series games by 6-11-3 points, winning here in OT LY. Butler won five of last six games, all vs top 100 teams; they’re 1-2 in true road games, losing at Indiana St/St John’s by total of four points- their win was at Utah. Hoyas lost first three Big East games by 10-5-6 points; they’re 2-7 vs top 100 teams, 2-4 in games decided by 6 or less points.

Virginia Tech lost by 26 at NC State Wednesday despite going 13-30 on arc; they were down 25 at half, in letdown game after upsetting Duke at home. Hokies are 4-2 vs top 100 teams, 1-1 in true road games, with win at Michigan. Florida State won its first two ACC games by 16-2 points; they’ve won 10 games in row overall, four of them vs top 50 opponents. Virginia Tech swept Florida State by 10-11 points LY, after losing five of previous six games with FSU. Hokies lost last three visits to Tallahassee by 1-11-20 points.

Providence won its last five games with Creighton, sweeping Bluejays by 2-4 points LY; Creighton lost all three visits here, by 13-12-4 points. Friars are 10-0 at home, with best wins URI/Georgetown; they lost three of last four games overall, are 4-4 vs top 100 teams. Providence forces turnovers 21.9% of time (#35). Creighton is 3-0 in true road games, winning at Nebraska-ASU-St John’s, all by 11+ points; their only loss was by 10 at home to Villanova. Jays are shooting 42.4% on arc (#4); they’ve got #2 eFG% in country.

North Carolina is 25-3 in its last 28 games with NC State, 12-1 in games played here (State’s last win at UNC was two years ago). Tar Heels swept LY’s series by 12-12 points. Carolina is 7-2 vs top 100 teams; they get Pinson back here, making them deeper, but they need OT to beat Clemson and lost at Ga Tech before that, turning ball over 24.2% of time in two ACC tilts. State won seven of last 8 games; they’re 4-1 since big man Yurtseven became eligible; their last six wins were all by 21+ points. Wolfpack is 1-3 vs top 100 teams, though.

Notre Dame is 4-0 vs Clemson since joining ACC, winning by 4-14 in games played here; irish beat Pitt/Louisville by total of 8 points to open ACC play 2-0- 3-2 vs top 50 teams, with losses to Villanova/Purdue. Clemson lost OT game to UNC at home Wednesday; they’re 2-0 in true road games, winning by hoop at So Carolina, 5 at Wake Forest. Clemson is #28 experience team that forces turnovers 23% of time- they start three seniors. Irish are 10-0 at home; they’re #1 in country on foul line (84.4%). Clemson is 3rd-best team in country at not fouling.

This is only second true road game of year for Maryland, which won 76-75 at Georgetown back on Nov 15- they did win couple of neutral court games in NYC. Home side won all three Maryland-Michigan Big 14 games; Terrapins lost 70-69 here LY. Underdogs covered all three games. Michigan won four of last five games, splitting pair of 3-point decisions to open Big 14 play; they’re #67 experience team that is 4-4 vs top 100 teams while playing 5th-slowest tempo in country. Maryland lost last game at home by 2 to Nebraska, which ended game on 14-0 run.

Utah led 44-10 at halftime, hammered Arizona State 81-46 LY in Salt Lake City; think Bobby Hurley had this game circled on his schedule? Utes won last four series games, but are 1-3 in Tempe, with losses by 5-1-4 points. Home side won eight of last nine series games. Arizona State is 2-1 in Pac-12, with two wins by total of six points; they’re 7-1 if they score 80+ points, 2-6 if they don’t. Utah is 1-2 in true road games, losing by 8 at Xavier, 10 at Arizona; their one true road win was at Hawai’i.

Indiana lost its last three games, allowing 79.7 pts/game and is mentioned as a bubble team now; Hoosiers have #6 eFG% despite turning ball over 21.8% of time; they’re 2-4 vs top 100 teams, with wins over KansasUNC. Illinois won seven of last eight games, but lost by 25 at Maryland in only true road game this season- they’re 4-3 vs top 100 teams, start three seniors (#42 experience team). Indiana won its last three games with Illinois by 6-34-27 points; Illini lost last four visits here, by 3-13-10-34 points.

Vanderbilt scored 88 pts/game in winning its first two SEC games after a 6-6 pre-conference slate; Commodores are shooting 40.4% on arc, are 1-2 in true road games, winning at LSU, losing at Middle Tennessee/Dayton. Vanderbilt won its last three games with Alabama, by 8-7-8 points; they won three of last four visits to Tuscaloosa. Crimson Tide is 1-5 vs top 100 teams, with best win over #99 Arkansas State. Will crowd at Bama be down with lot of people in Tampa for Monday’s football game?

Baylor will be #1 in country for first time if they win this game; Bears are 14-0 with eight top 100 wins- they’ve got #8 eFG% defense in country. Baylor is 7-4 in its last 11 games with Oklahoma State, sweeping Cowboys by 12-4 points LY. OSU lost eight of last nine visits to Waco. OSU is 0-2 in Big X games, allowing 87 pts/game, after 10-2 pre-conference slate (#150); Cowboys are 2-2 in true road games, winning in Tulsa/Wichita, losing at Texas/Maryland by total of 4 points. OSU opponents have shortest possessions in country; Baylor’s have 5th-longest.

Cincinnati won its last five games, allowing 53 pts/game in winning first two AAC games by 6-36 points; Bearcats are are 2-1 in true road games, losing by 10 at Butler, winning at Iowa State and Temple. Cincinnati won five of last six games with Houston, losing 69-56 here LY; Bearcats had won by 1-10 points in previous two visits here. Cougars are 3-0 in AAC, allowing 54.3 pts/game in league play; they’re 12-3 vs schedule #257, are 2-1 vs top 100 teams, winning over UR, Vermont by total of six points, losing by 12 at Arkansas.

New Mexico is 7-0 at home this season, but mostly against stiffs; Lobos are 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with win at struggling San Diego State LW- they’re 2-1 in MW, with games decided by 4-5-6 points. Nevada-New Mexico split last four meetings, with two Wolf Pack wins by total of five points; they’re 0-3 in Albuquerque, losing by 13-14-12 points. Nevada beat Lobos 64-62 in MW tourney LY. Wolf Pack is 2-2 in true road games, losing at St Mary’s/Fresno; they’ve got road wins at Bradley/Washington- their last two games were decided by total of four points.

San Diego State is 0-2 in Mountain West, unusual territory for them; Aztecs aren’t shooting ball well, rebounding it well or creating turnovers- they scored 65.5 pts/game in losses by 6-3 points to open MW play. Boise State scored 78 pts/game in winning first three league games; they’re 1-2 in top 100 games, losing to Charleston/Oregon, beating SMU by 9. Boise won three of last four games with San Diego State; underdogs covered last five series games. Teams split last four series games played here.

Armadillosports.com

Michigan hosts Maryland in Big Ten Battle
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com

Michigan and Maryland tangle in a Big Ten battle on Saturday afternoon.

Michigan and Maryland will both be looking to crack .500 after 1-1 Big Ten starts this season when they meet for the sixth time Saturday. Maryland holds a 4-1 (2-2-1 ATS) advantage over the Wolverines thus far since 2000. The Terrapins are 2-1 (2-1 ATS) against Michigan since joining the Big Ten in 2014. Michigan’s win did come in the only meeting at the Crisler Center between these two, with the Wolverines pulling a 70-67 home upset (Mich +2.5) last January. Michigan has been solid at home this season (9-1) but is just 2-5 ATS. The Wolverines are 0-3 ATS since Dec. 22 with two of those three contests coming in Ann Arbor, and were outrebounded in each of their last three games. Michigan has also failed to shoot better than 35% 3PT in those three contests. The Terrapins have had one true road game this season, which was a victory over Georgetown in the second game of the season (76-75, MD +6.5). Maryland will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing home loss to Nebraska on New Year’s Day (67-65, MD -7.5). Maryland was outrebounded by the Huskers in that contest and has been on the losing end of the rebounding battle in both of their losses this season. In the Terrapins’ six ATS losses, Maryland has been outrebounded in five of those contests (7-6 ATS on the season). Having not played since the first of the month, Maryland will have had six days of preparation for Michigan. The long layoff should serve the Terrapins well as they are 6-1 (5-1 ATS) with 3+ days rest. Maryland Coach Mark Turgeon will be without 7’1” Michal Cekovsky (10.0 PPG, 67.8% FG) again due to a sore ankle. It’ll be the seventh game the big man has missed this season (third in a row), but Maryland is 5-1 without him.

Maryland welcomes back glue guy and defensive presence, F Damonte Dodd (5.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.1 BPG) after a six-game absence. Dodd got his feet wet with 15 minutes in the loss versus Nebraska, but as Maryland’s best rim protector he could see additional minutes – especially without the availability of Cekovsky. While Dodd is an asset off the bench, the Terrapins leader on both ends of the floor is junior G Melo Trimble (17.8 PPG, 48% FG). While Trimble’s shooting is at a career-high clip from the field and his scoring has followed suit, his assists-to-turnover ratio has been turned on its head this season (for the worse). As a prospective first round pick who turned away the lure of the NBA for one more season in College Park, Coach Turgeon and the Terps need more from their star in conference play. Trimble went 5-of-15 from the field in Maryland’s loss to Nebraska last Sunday and has 13 turnovers over his past three games. The Terrapins have gotten glimpses of promise from freshmen Kevin Huerter (8.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG), Justin Jackson (10.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.0 BPG) and Anthony Cowan (10.5 PPG, 3.7 APG) in key moments this season and will need consistency from the three future pillars of their program. Huerter went off for a career-high 26 points (7-for-11 3PT) against Nebraska on Sunday, while Cowan has posted big performances in an overtime win over Richmond (18 points, five rebounds, four assists) and most recently over Illinois (12 points, six assists, one turnover). The 6’7”, 225-pound Jackson has proven the potential to be an inside-out matchup problem as shown with 17 points (3-for-5 3PT) and seven rebounds in an early-season win at Georgetown. Playing a very poor rebounding team in Michigan, Jackson could have another big day. Ultimately the Terrapins need Trimble to lead statistically and vocally to be a threat in the Big Ten. A good place to start for Trimble will be wiping away the memories of a season-worst two-point performance last year in Ann Arbor (1-of-7 FG, four Turnovers).

Michigan will once again hope to recapture the magic that last January carried them over the then-#3 Terrapins in Crisler. In that contest F Zak Irvin went for 22 points while G Derrick Walton Jr. had a 12-point, 10-rebound double-double. Both Irvin (13.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG) and Walton Jr. (12.5 PPG, 3.7 APG) return for their senior seasons in Ann Arbor hoping to make Michigan a serious contender for a Big Ten title. The Wolverines dropped a tough 86-83 contest in overtime at Iowa to start conference play but responded with a comeback win on Tuesday at home against Penn State, roaring back from a 13-point deficit to beat the Nittany Lions 72-69. Irvin and Walton Jr. combined for 20 of the Wolverines’ last 25 points. Supporting the two seniors forwards was Moritz Wagner and D.J. Wilson (26 points combined). While Irvin and Walton are the rudders of this team, the sophomore Wagner (11.6 PPG, 62% FG) and junior Wilson (10.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG) are the two components of Coach John Beilein’s team that can propel Michigan to reach their full potential as a team. The Wolverines haven’t had a scoring presence outside of their backcourt in years and, in Wagner (double-figures in nine of last 10 games) and Wilson (28 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists against Iowa), Michigan has two 6’10” players capable of breaking out on any given night to support their senior backcourt. Wilson and Wagner will have to consistently attack the glass as Michigan still struggles with rebounding (31.5 RPG, 320th in NCAA). Maryland isn’t a particularly strong team on the glass either, but unlike Michigan, Maryland doesn’t have the ability to win consistently while being outrebounded. Michigan is already getting by solidly with poor rebounding, they could be a serious contender in conference play if they can even out their -4 rebounding margin.