NCAAB Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 19th, 2016

NCAAB Knowledge

St Mary’s didn’t leave California LY until Feb 4; they travel to Dayton here to upgrade their non-league schedule, for NCAA purposes. Gaels scored 95.5 pts/game in winning first two games- they beat Nevada by 19; St Mary’s hit 42.9% of 3’s so far. Dayton won by 5 at Alabama four days ago but lost F Cunningham (leg) on last play of game. Flyers scored 86.5 pts/game in their first two wins, shooting 44% from arc. WCC teams are 11-9 vs spread this month, 4-2 as road underdogs. A-14 teams are 4-10 this month as home favorites.

Toledo split its first two games, losing 77-76 at St Joe’s, then beating Youngstown 103-98 in OT, so its been busy week for Rockets, who are playing #35 tempo while starting four seniors. Wright State fired its coach LY after a 22-13 season and 21+ wins in three of last four years- they won first two games this year, 85-81/89-87, making 43.8% of its 3’s. Raiders played only 7 guys more than 8:00 last game; they start 3 juniors, 2 seniors. MAC teams are 10-8 vs spread this season. Horizon teams are 8-6. MAC teams are 16-12 vs spread in last 28 games vs Horizon clubs.

Nebraska beat couple stiffs by 22-32 points to open season; Cornhuskers made 54.5% of itheir 3’s, #3 in country- they lost 3 starters from LY’s 16-18 team. Louisiana Tech lost by 9 at South Carolina, then hammered a stiff last game; Bulldogs are forcing turnovers on 26.7% of time; but are shooting just 30.4% on arc, 66% on foul line. Tech won at Ohio St. LY, won’t be intimidated by Big 14 atmosphere. C-USA road underdogs are 7-1 vs spread this month; Big 14 home favorites are 5-6 against spread.

UNLV split its first two home games, losing to South Alabama, beating Riverside by 12; Rebels are basically an expansion team, with new coach, only 3 returning players. UNLV is shooting 21.6% on arc (#326), but they got two players back from injury last game who missed USA game. Fullerton lost by 16 at Washington Thursday, after beating Portland State in double OT at home, when they were down 8 with 1:18 left in regulation. Mountain West teams are 7-5 in last 12 games vs Big West opponents; MW favorites are 2-5-1 vs spread in those games.

Cal-Irvine won by 3 at Pacific LY, rallying back from down 14 in second half; Anteaters lost in OT at California Wednesday, after leading by 13 early in 2nd half. Cal was playing without three starters. Irvine played 10 guys at Cal; 6 frosh, 2 sophs, 2 seniors. Pacific upset Green Bay at home late Monday night in ESPN marathon game. Tigers also lost 119-80 at UCLA- they start 4 seniors and a junior. WCC teams are 16-10 in last 26 games vs Big West teams, just 4-5 vs spread when an underdog vs Big West squad.

Northern Illinois is 3-0 with an OT win over Indiana St.; this is their first road game. Huskies beat Northridge by 12 at home LY- NIU was 11-24 on arc, CSUN was 15-31 on foul line in game where both sides took 30+ FTs. NIU has made only 25% of 3’s this year, but allow just 60.7 pts/game. Northridge lost at UCLA by 15, Stanford by 27, allowing 99 pts/game; Matadors are turning ball over 22.2% of time, but Pac-12 teams are too good for them. MAC teams are 9-5 vs spread this season. Big West teams are just 4-16 vs spread, 3-7 at home.

Cincinnati won its first two games by 29-23 points; they take big step up in class here against a Rhode Island team expected to break thru this year and make NCAAs for first time since 1999. Bearcats play slowish tempo; they’ve made only 25.6% of its 3’s in two home games, but did force lot of turnovers. URI won its first three games by 23-42-7 points; they’re also stepping way up in class; Rams have made 40.4% of its 3’s thru three games. A-14 teams are 6-5 in last 11 games vs AAC teams. AAC teams are 7-8 vs spread this year. A-14 teams are 8-15 vs spread.

Green Bay played awful in 76-58 loss at Pacific late Monday nite; Phoenix has 3 starters back from LY’s 23-13 team, but they were 5-22 on arc at Pacific, which is tough when you’re trying to play fast. Murray State beat Illinois State 73-70 at home, then lost 87-81 at Middle Tennessee, two solid games- they start only one senior. Racers split pair with Horizon teams LY, beating Milwaukee, losing to Wright St. Horizon teams are 8-6 vs spread this month, OVC teams are 10-10. Green Bay starts 3 seniors; curious how they bounce back here.

Morehead State is 2-1, losing first road game 85-77 at Marshall Wednesday; Eagles were outscored 30-3 on foul line- yikes. Morehead is athletic, in top 60 in forcing turnovers and offensive rebounds- they start 3 seniors. Evansville split pair of one-sided games; they’re starting 3 seniors- they were 3-0 vs OVC teams LY, winning by 4-5-15 points. Morehead lost by 1 at Illinois State in its only MVC game LY. OVC teams are 10-10 vs spread this year. MVC teams are 6-6. MVC teams are 8-4 in last 12 games against OVC, only 4-8 against spread.

South Florida is worst team in AAC; they split first two home games, losing by 13 to Elon, beating Florida A&M by 11. Bulls turned ball over 24.1% of time in those games; they have no seniors in their rotation. Rider already has two road wins, albeit at Hartford/Hampton; Broncs allowed just 62 pts/game, forcing turnovers 23.1% of time. Rider is starting 4 seniors and a 5-10 freshman PG- they started LY 1-8, so this is improvement. MAAC teams are 4-8 vs spread this season, 4-5 as road underdogs. AAC teams are 7-8 vs spread, 3-3 as home favorites.

Western Kentucky lost to Belmont last two years by 1-5 points; they were outscored 21-13 on foul line here LY in 90-85 loss. Hilltoppers beat couple stiffs by 13-7 points to start season, albeit 74-67 win in last game was vs Jacksonville State and coach Harper, who WKU fired LY. WKU is starting 4 seniors and a junior. Belmont lost was 9-41 on arc in 80-66 loss at Vanderbilt Tuesday; they were down 15 at half, got close midway thru 2nd half before Vandy pulled away. Belmont won’t be 9-41 at home- they start only two seniors.

Tennessee State was 20-11 LY after being 10-51 the two years prior; they’re 3-0 this year, with two neutral court wins and a 69-61 win at Santa Clara. Tigers are forcing turnovers 21.3% of time- they’re starting 3 seniors, 2 juniors. Middle Tennessee beat Murray State of OVC 87-81 in 71-possession (normal speed) game Tuesday; Blue Raiders are #22 in experience and they upset Michigan State in NCAAs LY, so it is positive experience. C-USA teams are 13-5 vs spread this season, 4-3 as home favorites. OVC road underdogs are 7-6 vs spread.

Wyoming won 73-72 at Montana in its first D-I game of year; Cowboys took more 3’s (9-28) than 2’s (12-25) in game, which isn’t necessarily good- they were down 9 with 9:59 left to play. South Dakota State lost by 29-15 in games at California/UC-Irvine to start season; Jackrabbits have a new coach for first time in 22 years- they’re shooting just 21.7% on arc, had ton of their shots blocked on road trip- they’re starting a freshman PG. Mountain West teams are 2-5 vs spread as home favorites this year; Summit League road underdogs are 8-5 against the spread.

Armadillosports.com

Duke faces inferior Penn State Saturday
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox,com

PENN ST NITTANY LIONS(2-1) AT DUKE BLUE DEVILS (2-1)

Soon-to-be former #1 Duke looks to bounce back from their first defeat when they take on Penn State in the Naismith Hall of Fame Tipoff at Mohegan Sun Arena.

Duke and Kansas gave college basketball fans everywhere a treat Tuesday night, but someone has to lose those games and Duke was on the bad end of a heartbreaking heroic final play. Coach Krzyzewski’s Blue Devils, missing three top-20 freshmen from their ballyhooed recruiting class, put forth an effort that could widely be considered a “good loss”, but will be knocked from their top perch in the AP poll as a result. How the Blue Devils bounce back against an inexperienced but up-and-coming Penn State squad will be the main storyline for this matinee game in Uncasville, CT. Can Duke stay out of the way of the whistle-happy officiating this season with only a six-man rotation? Duke’s counterpart for Saturday has not been overly-impressive in the early going. Coach Pat Chambers’ Nittany Lions dropped their home opener to Albany before beating Duquesne but failing to cover (82-74, PSU -10). Penn State struggled to put away Grand Canyon in prevailing 85-76 on Tuesday, a team that Duke obliterated, 96-61 on Saturday night. Duke’s first win was breezing past season-opening foe Marist (94-49) on the 11th. While no line is currently out, losing streaks for Duke are a rarity. Since 2007, Coach K’s Blue Devils are 46-7 straight-up after a loss. The Blue Devils are 27-24-1 ATS in that same span but did go just 4-6 ATS after a loss last season. Penn State is 72-91 in Pat Chambers’ tenure in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions are 42-49 ATS as an underdog (which they most certainly will be on Saturday) in the Chambers era, but they are 19-15 ATS as an underdog since 2014. As mentioned previously, Duke will definitely be without the services of two star freshmen: F Harry Giles and C Marques Bolden, and fellow freshman F Jayson Tatum’s injury status is still up in the air. At least two, if not all three of these newcomers were in the mix to start for Duke according to preseason prognosticators.

While we still don’t know just how good Duke will be at full strength, their top six healthy players right now are impressive in their own right. Smooth left-handed G Luke Kennard (11.8 PPG last season) was looking at sixth man duties in August, but now finds himself averaging 17.3 PPG and shooting 61.3% from the field and 50% from three to start this season. Kennard’s toughness and shot-making against Kansas in the second half was integral in Duke almost pulling out a victory in Madison Square Garden. The Blue Devils are led by ACC preseason player of the year, G Grayson Allen (21.6 PPG, 47% FG last season), but Allen has been (rightfully) a marked man this year. The star guard struggled through 2-for-11 shooting to open the season against Marist, and Kansas pushed Allen around in a 4-for-15 shooting evening on Wednesday. While Allen is ceding some on-ball duties to Kennard and impressive freshman Frank Jackson (16.7 PPG, 2 APG this season), it’s allowing defenses to play more physical with Allen off the ball and going around screens. It feels like F Amile Jefferson (10.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG this season) has been in Durham since the stone-ages, but the redshirt senior provides steadiness in the paint for Coach K and should have his way with undersized Penn State. Look for reserve sophomore F Chase Jeter (7 PPG) to jump in on the action and make a difference near the basket as well as Duke could dominate both ends of the paint if they choose to. Jeter and Jefferson have combined for 18 blocks this season and Penn State has been outrebounded in every game this season while failing to play anyone who has size even close to what the Blue Devils can roll out.

For the Nittany Lions to be successful, they’re going to have to push the pace against Duke with their exciting backcourt and hope that quickness can neutralize Duke’s strength and size advantages. Penn State is lucky to have found a trio of freshmen of their own – though not as nationally decorated as Duke’s – that have the future looking bright in Happy Valley. F Mike Watkins (11.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.3 BPG) has been a revelation in the paint for Penn State with 13 blocks on the young season. If he can hold his own making shots tougher for the likes of Allen, Kennard and Jackson while keeping Jeter and Jefferson off the offensive glass – and keep himself out of foul trouble – then Penn State has a fighting chance in this game. His effectiveness will allow fellow classmates, G Tony Carr (14.7 PPG, 4.7 APG, 50% 3PT) and F Lamar Stevens (17.7 PPG, 5 RPG) to attack on the offensive end. Stevens is Penn State’s biggest player at 6’7” should Watkins get into foul woes, and isn’t built to defend the paint. His contributions are needed more on offense where his slashing style can get Duke’s bigs into foul trouble (Stevens went 12-13 FT against Duquesne. In Carr, the highest-rated recruit of the Chambers-era, Penn State hopes to have their next great guard after producing such solid collegiate players such as Tim Frazier, D.J. Newbill (and Carr’s backcourt teammate, Shep Garner). Yes, Garner (14.8 PPG) is the de-facto team leader as a junior, and he’s a very solid Big Ten player, but Carr – a local Philly product – is the present and future of the Nittany Lions. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Carr control the tempo of this game for Chambers in his first chance in a national spotlight. The freshman is a similar size to his likely counterpart on the other end – Greyson Allen – and if Allen is looking for a break after going up against Kansas’ elite guards, he’ll be surprisingly disappointed having to keep Carr in check. Penn State boasts some experience off the bench with burly G Terrance Samuel (4.3 PPG, 3.7 APG) a transfer from Connecticut who will hopefully get some cheers playing close to his original college home. Samuel had 7 assists in the win over Grand Canyon and has a solid defensive reputation.