NCAAB Betting News and Notes Sunday, December 11th, 2016

NCAAB Knowledge

First true road game for Ole Miss squad that split its last four games after a 4-0 start; Rebels are #70 experience team playing #75 pace- they’re shooting 39.3% on arc (#41) but teams are shooting 43.3% against them (#344). Ole Miss hasn’t played in 8 days. Virginia Tech is 7-1 vs schedule #289; Hokies are 2-1 in top 10 games, losing to Texas A&M by 3 on a neutral floor, beating Nebraska/Michigan, both away from home. ACC home favorites are 27-17 vs spread; MAC road underdogs are 14-15.

Yale is 4-4 vs schedule #54, with only two home games (wins by 8-4) in there; Bulldogs split pair of games vs teams outside top 200, losing at Bryant, winning at Sacred Heart. Yale is thin because of injuries; they’re playing pace #301. Delaware is 5-3 vs schedule #312 with two non-D-I wins; Blue Hens lost by 6 at LaSalle in their only top 200 game this season. Teams have shot only 24.8% on arc vs Delaware, best 3-point defense in country. Ivy League home favorites are 3-6 vs spread; CAA road underdogs are 11-7.

Kentucky’s five wins vs teams outside top 100 have been by 23-24-24-31-35 points; this game is in Brooklyn, Wildcats head to Las Vegas next to play North Carolina Saturday. Kentucky is forcing turnovers 23.9% of time (#16); they’re 5th-least experienced team playing pace #10 in country. Hofstra is close to home; they’re 6-4 vs schedule #279- they lost to St Bonaventure by 6 at home, in only top 100 game so far. None of their losses are by more than 14 points, until today. SEC home favorites are 21-19 vs spread; CAA road underdogs are 11-7.

Florida State beat Florida the last two years by a hoop each time, after losing five in row before that. Seminoles are 9-1 vs schedule #284; their bench has played #4 minutes in country. FSU is 3-1 in top 100 games, losing to Temple by 3 on neutral floor- they’ve beaten Illinois/Minnesota/Iona for top 100 wins. Gators are 2-2 in top 50 games, losing to Gonzaga by 5, Duke by 10 on neutral floors. Florida won by 31 at North Florida in only true road game this season. ACC home favorites are 27-17 vs spread; SEC road underdogs are 2-5.

Indiana State was outscored 23-4 on foul line in 75-62 loss at Western Kentucky LY; Sycamores are 5-4 vs schedule #48 this year, upsetting Butler at home Wednesday on Larry Bird’s 60th birthday- home crowd rushed the floor. Sycamores won their last three games, last two by one point each. Hilltoppers lost last four games; they’re 0-4 on road, all against teams ranked #116 or worse; best team WKU has beaten is #232 Jacksonville State. WKU is 0-5 vs top 200 teams. MVC home favorites are 16-7 vs spread; C-USA road underdogs are 20-18.

Rick Barnes is from Hickory, NC, coached in ACC for Clemson; he knows what he is up against in Chapel Hill today. His young Volunteers are 4-3 vs schedule #137- his bench is playing #11 minutes, so lot of young guys getting experience. Vols’ losses are by 13-12-4 points, with Wisconsin/Oregon in there so Tennessee has talent. North Carolina is 9-1, beating Davidson by 9 in last game (only win by less than 15 points); they’re rebounding 42.9% of their own missed shots. ACC home favorites are 27-17 vs spread; SEC road underdogs are 2-5.

Minnesota is 9-1 vs schedule #169 with #312 experienced team; Gophers have #3 eFG% defense in country, holding teams to 39.7% inside arc. Northern Illinois lost four of last five games, with three losses by 5 or less points; Huskies as usual are struggling with shooting, making 27.9% on arc- they have #313 eFG%. NIU split pair with #126 Indiana State, best team they’ve played so far this season. Minnesota’s only loss is by 8 at Florida State. Big 14 home favorites are 23-28; MAC road underdogs are 14-15.

Oregon beat Alabama 72-68 in Birmingham LY, rallying back from down 12 in second half. Ducks are 7-2, 3-2 vs top 100 teams, with losses to Baylor/Georgetown- they’re blocking 24.7% of opponents’ shots, most in country- their eFG% is #18. Alabama hasn’t played in nine days, since 77-68 loss at Texas in their only road game. Crimson Tide is 4-3, losing all three top 10 games by 5-8-9 points- their best win is over #169 Ball State. Pac-12 home favorites are 22-19; SEC road underdogs are 2-5.

St Joe’s beat Drexel the last five years, the last two years by a combined four points. Hawks lost their last four games after a 3-0 start- they beat Columbia by 20 in only game vs team outside the top 200. St Joe’s is #299 experience team thats played schedule #75; all four of their losses are to top 100 teams. Drexel is 0-3 vs top 200 teams, losing by 13-21-11 points; best team they’ve beaten is #275 North Texas. A-14 favorites are 14-6 vs spread away from home; CAA home underdogs are 1-4.

Nevada is 6-2 vs schedule #143, winning by 22 at Bradley in only road game- they lost final of Alaskan Shootout by 2 to Iona after beating Gaels by 15 the week before- thats best team they’ve played this season. Washington is #342 experience team playing pace #5- they gave up 92.3 pts/game in losing last three games. Best team Huskies have beaten is #165 Long Beach State, which is 1-10 vs D-I teams. Washington was down 47-22 at half at Gonzaga in last game. Pac-12 home favorites are 22-19; Mountain West road underdogs are 14-7.

San Diego is #345 experience team; they’re 4-5 vs #302 schedule, playing pace #312. Toreros’ wins are all vs teams ranked outside top 300- best win is by 7 over #306 Fullerton. UCSB is 0-5 vs D-I teams; they haven’t played in 10 days, when they beat a D-II team. Gauchos also haven’t played a team outside 200 yet; they’re shooting 24.2% on arc, 2nd-worst in country. UCSB lost to WCC’s San Francisco by 12, their only WCC opponent so far this year. WCC home favorites are 18-13 vs spread; Big West road underdogs are 8-18.

Young/thin USC (#327 experience, #269 bench) is 8-0 with three top 60 wins; Trojans are playing #68 pace, have WCC wins over San Diego (76-55), BYU (91-84). This is their first game in eight days. Pepperdine lost its last four games; they lost by 26 to St Bonaventure in their only top 100 game so far- Waves were playing third day in row. Pepperdine is 1-3 vs teams in top 150; their best win is over #146 Little Rock, by a point. Four of their five losses are by 11 or less points. Pac-12 home favorites are 22-19; WCC road underdogs are 8-8.

St Mary’s got smoked at home by Tex-Arlington last game; Gaels were 8-27 on arc- they’re shooting 38.4% on season from arc. St Mary’s beat Cal-Irvine last couple of years by 10-3 points. Gaels have veteran team is playing 2nd-slowest pace in country. Irvine 4-5 vs D-I teams; they’re #337 in experience, turning ball over 22.1% of time (#305), but because Big West is so awful this year, they still have shot at winning league. Anteaters do have the #34 eFG% defense. WCC home favorites are 18-13 vs spread; Big West road underdogs are 8-18.

Armadillosports.com

FSU hosts Florida
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com

#21 Florida looks to bounce back after a loss to Duke as they visit in-state rival Florida State on Sunday.

The last three games in the rivalry between the Gators and Seminoles have been decided by a combined total of five points, so expect a close battle on Sunday afternoon in Tallahassee. While Florida holds a decided 43-24 overall mark on Florida State historically, the Seminoles have won each of the past two matchups and covered the past three years. Since 1995, the Gators are 12-9 (10-11 ATS). The Seminoles are 4-2 (4-2 ATS) at home since 2005 versus the Gators, only having been the favorite once out of those six times. The total has been UNDER in four of those six games. Each of the past three games have come down to plays in the final seconds: G Dwayne Bacon hit a shot with 4.8 seconds to push the Seminoles over the Gators last season, while an “own goal” tip in, from a Florida player trying to corral a rebound, was the dramatic ending when these two teams last played in Tallahassee in 2014. Florida last won this game in 2013 after being fouled on an offensive rebound with 1.3 seconds left and hitting a free throw to seal the win. Florida State has covered these last three contests (all as underdogs of 5 points or more). The Seminoles are hot, winners of their last five games (4-1 ATS) including victories over Illinois, Minnesota and George Washington. Their lone loss was to Temple (89-86, FSU -10) on a neutral floor. The Seminoles have been favorites (of at least 7.5 points) in every one of their games this season. Florida has played a much tougher schedule than their in-state counterparts, taking losses to top 10 teams Gonzaga and most recently Duke, both on neutral floors and failing to cover in both. Florida was 10-4 (9-5 ATS) after a loss last season under Mike White. The Gators own wins over Seton Hall and Miami, covering both as very slight favorites. The availability of impact freshman F Jonathan Isaac (15.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 59% FG) is still in question after a hip flexor injury that has kept him out of action since Florida State’s win over Minnesota on November 28th. While Florida State is 3-0 without Isaac, their chances at continuing recent dominance over the Gators takes a hit without their potential NBA lottery pick on the floor.

The aforementioned Isaac is a matchup nightmare as a 6’10” wing that can shoot over the top of the defense and put the ball on the floor. That said, the Seminoles aren’t lost without him, as they still boast the talents of last year’s hero in this game, leading scorer Dwayne Bacon (16.6 PPG) and junior G Xavier Rathan-Mayes (9.8 PPG, 5.0 APG). They also may have caught lightning in a bottle in reserve G PJ Savoy (12.8 PPG) who’s stepped up in Isaac’s absence. It remains to be seen if Savoy’s white-hot shooting from deep (13 threes in his past two games) will carry over beyond garbage time and into prime time against a top 25 opponent. Rathan-Mayes has seen his scoring average nosedive since a freshman season that had him average almost 15 points per game, but he’s scored double figures in each of his two career games against Florida and is coming off a 16-point, seven-rebound, seven-assist outing versus Nicholls State. Bacon will shoulder even more of the scoring load if Isaac remains out, which suits him just fine (24 points last season and the game-winner against the Gators). The Seminoles are seventh in the nation in scoring offense at (90.7 PPG) but run into a solid Florida defense. The Seminoles will try and take advantage of a Florida front line that allows 11.8 offensive rebounds per game (338th NCAA), but do they have the necessary weapons to take full advantage?

Florida doesn’t have the individual offensive firepower that FSU has and the Gators do not excel from the perimeter (33.1% 3PT, 224th NCAA). That said, Florida shoots a solid 75% from the line, so making this game physical and getting the Seminoles into foul trouble will work to the visitor’s advantage. The Gators have started shooting it better as of late (15-for-30 3PT combined against North Florida and Duke) and protected the rim well against the Blue Devils (eight blocks) even in a loss. They can’t be victimized on the offensive glass as they were to Duke, though, and have to give C John Egbunu (9.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.6 BPG) more support up front. Egbunu has to stay out of foul trouble to thwart Florida State’s rim-attacking style, as he fouled out in last season’s matchup with just four points. One player who didn’t struggle against the Seminoles last December is G KeVaughn Allen (13.3 PPG). Allen poured in a career-high 32 points in defeat against the Seminoles (10-for-18 FG, 9-for-9 FT) and will most likely be a marked man for Seminoles’ coach Leonard Hamilton. F Devin Robinson (11.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and G Canyon Barry (11.4 PPG) round out the double-figure scorers for Coach White. Barry has struggled mightily of late (only 18 points combined in his last three games) and has seen his playing time dwindle. Robinson has conversely been a steady source of offense (8 of 9 games in double-figures), but doesn’t wow you with any one facet of his game. Senior Kasey Hill (8.2 PPG, 4.2 APG) could be an x-factor in his last game in this rivalry. Hill is coming off a 13-point, seven-rebound, six-assist performance against Duke. Hill had 17 points in 2014, the last time Florida was in Tallahassee.

Florida at Florida State
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

All is not well in Gator Nation. The Florida football team repeated as SEC East champion with an epic win at LSU, but the Gators have taken double-digit pimpslaps at FSU and vs. Alabama in the last two weeks.

Although it won’t eliminate the pain of those defeats, perhaps UF fans can take some solace and sleep a touch better if the Gators can go into Tallahassee and beat the Seminoles in college hoops Sunday afternoon.

One offshore book opened FSU (9-1 straight up, 6-2 against the spread) as a 2.5-point home favorite.

Leonard Hamilton’s team is unbeaten in seven home games with a 4-1 spread record. The ‘Noles are off a 118-63 win over Nicholls St. as a 26-point home favorite. P.J. Savory led the way with a team-best 18 points on 6-of-14 shooting from 3-point range, while Xavier Rathan-Mayes produced 16 points, seven rebounds, seven assists and three steals in only 22 minutes of playing time. Dwayne Bacon added 16 points, five boards and four assists without a turnover.

FSU is ranked eighth in the nation in scoring, averaging 90.3 points per game. The ‘Noles are fourth in the country in field-goal percentage (52.4%). They defend well also, ranking 13th in defensive field-goal percentage (36.2%) and 25th at defending the 3-point line (28.0%).

Jonathan Isaac, a 6’10” freshman forward who was a five-star recruit, has missed three straight games with a hip injury. Isaac, who averaged 15.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, 1.3 blocked shots, 1.1 assists and 1.1 steals per game in the team’s first seven contests, is listed as ‘questionable’ against UF. Also, junior forward Phil Cofer (4.3 PPG, 2.3 RPG) is ‘questionable’ due to a foot injury that’s forced him to miss the last two games.

Bacon is averaging a team-best 16.6 PPG. He’s making 50.4 percent of his shots from the field and 40.9 percent from 3-point range. Savoy is averaging 12.8 PPG despite playing an average of only 12 minutes per contest. He is knocking down 51.7 percent of his launches from downtown.

Rathan-Mayes (9.8 PPG) can be an explosive scorer but is distributing more this season with a 50/20 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Trent Forrest, a true freshman out of Chipley High School, the same program that produced half-brothers Amp Lee and Tony Davis, is averaging 7.3 points, 4.1 rebounds and has a 26/11 assists-to-turnovers ratio.

FSU has been a single-digit favorite three times, compiling a 1-2 spread record. The Seminoles’ only defeat was an 89-86 setback vs. Temple at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. They own quality wins over the likes of George Washington, Minnesota and Illinois.

Florida (7-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) is off an 84-74 loss to Duke as a seven-point underdog Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Mike White’s second team at UF played well for the most part, but it gave up too many offensive rebounds that often resulted in wild scrambles, an extra Duke pass an open jumper for Luke Kennard, who hit 5-of-7 from 3-point land in a 29-point effort.

KeVaughn Allen wouldn’t let UF go away, though, scoring a team-best 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting from the field, including three buckets on five attempts from long distance. Kasey Hill contributed 13 points, seven rebounds and five assists, while Devin Robinson was also in double figures with 11 points. John Egbunu finished with nine points, 10 boards and a pair of blocked shots, but he was an abysmal 2-of-9 from the field.

UF still hasn’t played at home this year with the O-Dome’s $65 million renovation still in progress. The Gators are expected to play their first home game on Dec. 21 against Arkansas-Little Rock. They’ve played just one true road game, coasting to a 91-60 victory at North Florida in a non-lined affair.

This situation has led UF to play all across the Sunshine State to date, including games in Kissimmee, Lakeland, Orlando and Jacksonville. The Gators’ only other loss besides Duke came against Gonzaga (81-76). They have posted quality victories over Saint Bonaventure, Seton Hall and Miami, in addition to decent wins over mid-majors like Belmont, Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast.

Florida is 0-2 both SU and ATS in a pair of underdog spots.

Florida has plenty of size, depth and speed. The biggest improvement from this squad has been at the free-throw line. Atrocious shooting at the charity stripe has been the difference between the NIT and the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back campaigns. However, the Gators are making 75.1 percent from the line this year, which ranks 47th in the country.

Allen leads UF in scoring (13.3 PPG) and steals (1.6 SPG). Egbunu (9.1 PPG) averages team-highs in rebounds (7.8 RPG) and blocked shots (2.3 BPG). Robinson is scoring at a 11.7 PPG clip and is pulling down 5.4 RPG. Canyon Barry (11.4 PPG), a grad transfer from College of Charleston who is the youngest son of NBA Hall of Famer Rick Barry, brings plenty of scoring punch off the bench for the Gators’ second unit.

Hill, the team’s starting senior point guard who was once a five-star recruit, is averaging 8.2 points, 4.1 assists, 2.89 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game. His back-up, junior Chris Chiozza (6.2 PPG, 27/12 assists-to-turnovers ratio) out of Memphis, is listed as ‘questionable’ with a thigh contusion. Where I come from, we call that injury a ‘Charley Horse’ and I took many of those way back when the same way Chiozza did against Duke. As a big man came and set a pick on Chiozza, the knee went right into the 5’8” PG’s thigh as he was sliding his feet defensively.

The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for FSU, 4-1 in its home outings. Meanwhile, UF has seen the ‘under’ go 4-3 overall.

When these schools met in Gainesville last year, FSU won a 73-71 decision as a 4.5-point road underdog. Bacon’s team-best 24 points paced the winners, while Allen had a game-high 32 points. The Seminoles have won back-to-back meetings and have covered in three straight.

Tip-off in Tally will take place at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between UF and FSU.

Going back to last season, the ‘over’ is 7-1 in UF’s last eight road contests.

FSU’s Isaac has scored in double figures in all seven games he’s played. He has a pair of double-doubles to his credit, including a 14-13 effort in a 75-67 win over Minnesota.

Villanova remained undefeated Saturday afternoon in Newark, N.J., by rallying to clip previously-unbeaten Notre Dame by a 74-66 count. The Wildcats were led by Josh Hart, who finished with 37 points, 11 rebounds, two steals and four assists compared to merely one turnover. They took the cash as five-point favorites after trailing for the first 30-plus minutes of the game. The Irish were led by Matt Farrell and Steve Vasturia, who scored 18 points apiece.

Sunday is big for the SEC. The league sure could use a UF victory at FSU and an Alabama win at Oregon. Those would be two huge non-conference wins that would help the entire conference immensely.

One offshore had the Ducks installed as 11.5-point home ‘chalk’ versus the Crimson Tide. This game will tip at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.