NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, December 18th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
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Home side won last three Georgia State-Old Dominion games; all three games were decided by 6 or less points. Monarchs scored 51.5 pts/game in losing their last two games; they’ve got #346 eFG%, making only 38.1% inside arc, 58.8% on foul line, but they’re 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with only one of those wins by more than 8 points. Georgia State is 0-3 in true road games, losing by 18-8-22 points; they turn ball over 21.4% of time. C-USA home favorites are 11-11 vs spread; Sun Belt road underdogs are 15-21.
Kent State is 7-3 vs schedule #346, 6-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200; they’re grabbing 40.8% of own missed shots (#5 in country). Flashes are starting a freshman, two sophs. Wright State lost last three D-I games, allowing 83.3 pts/game; Raiders are #77 experience team, but have new coach and are turning ball over 21.7% of time- they start three juniors, two seniors. Raiders’ subs play #322 minutes; Kent’s subs play #28 minutes. MAC home favorites are 11-14 vs spread; Horizon road underdogs are 17-19.
St Joe’s made 15-33 on arc in 79-65 home win over Illinois State LY; game was 45-26 at half. Hawks are 5-4 vs schedule #56; they won last two games over Drexel/Princeton by total of nine points, both on road. St Joe’s is 1-4 in top 100 games. Redbirds are 5-0 at home, 0-3 on road; only one of their five home wins was by less than 14 points. ISU is making 40.3% on arc, but they turn ball over 20.5% of time. Redbirds are 2-1 vs teams in top 125. MVC home favorites are 17-11 vs spread; A-14 road underdogs are 12-10.
Alabama won ugly 51-50 game vs Clemson LY in Greenville, SC (Clemson’s gym was being redone); Crimson Tide is 4-1 at home this year, with only loss by 5 to Dayton. Mama is forcing turnovers 23.2% of time (#24); they’re playing tempo #301. First true road game for 7-2 Clemson team that lost two of three on neutral floor at Disney tourney last month. Tigers force turnovers 24.2% of time (#9); they’re also #10 at protecting the ball. ACC road favorites are 5-5 vs spread; SEC underdogs are 13-17, 2-1 at home.
Gonzaga is 10-0 with six top 100 wins, four neutral court wins; this is their first true road game. Bulldogs were up 49-33 at half in 86-79 home win over Tennessee LY; they outscored Vols 24-11 on foul line. Tennessee was 10-21 on arc. Vols won five of last six games, with one loss by hoop at North Carolina; they’re #334 experience team playing #76 tempo and subbing a lot. Tennessee is 4-0 vs top 100 teams, losing by 13-12-4-2 points. WCC favorites are 5-6 away from home; SEC underdogs are 13-17, 2-1 at home.
Michigan State is 7-4 vs schedule #42; their losses are all to top 20 teams. Spartans are 5-0 vs teams outside top 100, with three wins by 11 or less points. Star freshman Bridges missed last three games (ankle). Izzo’s teams are not usually this young (#318 experience). Northeastern lost 78-58 at home to Michigan State LY; Huskies won at UConn in its only top 100 game this season. All five Northeastern losses are by 6 or less points, but three of them were vs teams outside top 200. CAA road underdogs are 14-9 vs spread; Big 14 home favorites are 25-30.
Western Michigan had player arrested for murder since they last played; kid didn’t start, but still. Broncos have #339 eFG% defense; they’re 2-6 vs D-I teams, losing by 11-5 points in only two top 100 games. Washington is #343 experience team that has talent but can’t defend; they lost last four games, allowing 91 pts/game. Huskies are shooting 41.8% on arc (#11); they’re playing #7 pace, are 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with wins by 16-34-39 points. Pac-12 home favorites are 25-23 vs spread; MAC road underdogs are 15-16.
St John’s has already lost at home to Delaware State/LIU; there is no evidence Mullin is turning program around. Red Storm are #348 experience team that is 5-6 vs schedule #292- they play pace #49. St John’s lost by 6-11 points to Minnesota/Mich State of Big 14. Penn State is #333 experience team; they won only true road game by 6 at George Washington. Lions have #291 eFG%, shooting only 44.3% inside arc- they’re starting three frosh and a sophomore. Big East home favorites are 17-15 vs spread; Big 14 road underdogs are 9-5.
Oregon State has injury issues, is struggling at 3-8, losing last eight D-I games; Beavers’ last three losses are all by 4 or less points- they turn ball over 24.9% of time (#344). OSU is #329 in experience, playing schedule #318- they beat Portland in OT in last meeting two years ago. Pilots are 6-3, winning last two games by total of four points; Portland is 5-0 vs teams outside top 100, with three double figure wins- they won only true road game by 13 at San Jose State. WCC favorites are 5-6 away from home; Pac-12 home underdogs are 1-3.
Northern Kentucky is 7-3 vs schedule #304 in its 5th year of D-I ball; Norse lost by 21 couple years ago at Eastern Washington. NKU won its last four games this year, is 6-1 against teams outside top 200. Eagles come east on a 7-game win streak, with four of last five D-I wins in OT, two in double OT. EWU’s last six D-I wins are all by 6 or less points; they’re #2 team on foul line, but in bottom 10 at forcing turnovers. Both of EWU’s losses are top top 80 teams. Horizon home favorites are 6-13 vs spread; Big Sky road underdogs are 27-26.
NC State has been replenished by arrival of freshman big man Yurtseven, who can shoot/pass but is very young; six of their nine guys who played 10:00+ in last game are freshman/sophs, so they’re talented but need experience. Fairfield hasn’t played in 12 days, hasn’t played anyone ranked above #116; Stags are 3-2 on road but turn ball over 22.1% of time and are stepping way up in class here. MAAC road underdogs are 14-13 vs spread; ACC home favorites are 33-21. Wolfpack’s bench had hardly been playing, but they’re lot deeper starting this week.
Montana State lost 74-57 to South Dakota 11 days ago in Vermillion, in brickfest where teams combined to go 9-40 on arc. Coyotes led 32-24 at half. State lost its last four games, three by 8+ points; they’re 5-1 at home, with only loss by 5 to Milwaukee. South Dakota lost 85-82 in Portland Friday; three Coyotes played 28:00+ in game where Portland was 12-22 on arc. Coyotes are 3-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with only loss by hoop at UMKC. Summit League road underdogs are 20-22 vs spread; Big Sky home favorites are 3-9.
Omaha was 25-27 on foul line in 83-73 win at Fullerton Nov 30; titans were just 11-24 on line in game Omaha led 37-23 at half. Mavericks won four of last five games including a win at Iowa; they’re turning ball over 20.3% of time, shooting just 32.3% on arc, but 8 of their first 10 D-I games were on road. Fullerton is 4-6 vs schedule #332; Titans are 0-3 in true road games, with losses by 16-9-7 points- they lost by 16-9-10 points in only top 200 games. Summit League home favorites are 6-9 vs spread; Big West road underdogs are 10-24.
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