NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, January 15th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
Sunday's Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
Sunday night’s college basketball betting slate features three conference matchups on tap and they're all nationally televised.
Georgia Tech gets things started in the ACC with a road game against North Carolina State. The second matchup is a Big Ten clash between Iowa and Northwestern followed by USC on the road against Colorado in the Pac-12.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at N.C. State Wolfpack
Opening Odds: North Carolina State -9
Betting Matchup
Georgia Tech stunned Clemson 75-63 on Thursday night as a 10-point home underdog. This followed back-to-back losses to Duke on the road and Louisville at home both straight-up and against the spread as a double-digit underdog. The Yellow Jackets are now 10-6 on the year SU with a 5-7 record ATS in games with a posted betting line. Junior center Ben Lammers led all scorers in Thursday’s upset with 23 points and he added a game-high 10 rebounds to the winning cause.
The Wolfpack (12-5 SU, 7-8 ATS) are off to a 1-3 start (SU and ATS) in ACC play following their 74-66 loss to Boston College this past Wednesday as 5½-point road favorites. The total stayed UNDER 161 points in that loss and it has stayed UNDER in three of their first four conference games. NC State is averaging a solid 81.7 points per game with freshman guard Dennis Smith Jr. leading the way with 18.8 PPG, but it is allowing an average of 75.9 points at the other end of the court.
Betting Trends
The Yellow Jackets have failed to cover in four of their last five Sunday games and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games following a SU win.
The Wolfpack have covered ATS in their last five home games and the total has gone OVER in six of their last eight Sunday games.
Head-to-head in this conference clash, the road team is 12-3-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings and the total has gone OVER in 10 of the last 11 meetings at NC State.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats
Opening Odds: Northwestern -7½
Betting Matchup
Iowa knocked off Purdue 83-78 on Thursday night as a 6½-point home underdog after opening play in the Big Ten this season with an 89-67 road loss to the Boilermakers as a 14½-point underdog. The Hawkeyes (11-7 SU, 6-8-1 ATS) are now 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) in conference play and the total has gone OVER in three of the five games. Senior guard Peter Jok posted 29 points in Thursday’s win while going 11-for-19 from the field.
The Wildcats improved to 14-4 SU on the year with a 69-60 victory against Rutgers this past Thursday as 6½-point favorites on the road. They are now 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as part of an overall record of 11-5 ATS. They are 7-3 ATS when closing as favorites. Junior guard Scottie Linsey is Northwestern’s leading scorer with 15.5 PPG, but sophomore Vic Law had the hot hand against Rutgers with a game-high 23 points while hitting seven of his 14 shots from the floor.
Betting Trends
The Hawkeyes have failed to cover in five of their last six road games and the total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in five of those contests.
The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played at home and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in four of their last five home games.
The favorite in this Big Ten tilt has a 6-2 edge ATS in the last eight meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last five games between the two.
No. 25 USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes
Opening Odds: Colorado -2
Betting Matchup
Southern Cal is off to a shaky start in Pac-12 play at 2-3 SU (1-4 ATS) following back-to-back losses to California as a two-point home favorite and to Utah on the road as a 5½-point underdog. The 15-3 Trojans have failed to cover in eight of their last nine games to fall to 8-9 ATS on the year. Junior guard Jordan McLaughlin leads the team in both points (14.2) and assists (4.9), but he shot just 33 percent from the field his last time out against Utah to end that game with nine points.
The Buffaloes are still looking for their first conference win this season in four tries as part of an overall SU record of 10-7. They have failed to cover in three of those four losses to fall to a costly 5-11 ATS. The total has gone OVER in their last three games. Colorado is averaging 75.1 points a game, but it is also allowing an average of 71.1 PPG. This points-allowed average has climbed to 85 points in conference play.
Betting Trends
The Trojans are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games and the total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in eight of their last nine games played on a Sunday.
The Buffaloes are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 Sunday games and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games played at home.
Colorado has a 5-1 edge ATS in the last six meetings and the total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings in this conference clash.
NCAAB Knowledge
Michigan is tied for first in Big 14 despite being #312 experience team thats played its subs more than any team in country. Spartans lost by 9 at Duke, won in OT at Minnesota in its only true road games this season. Michigan State won its last five games with Ohio State, winning by 9-19 points in last two visits to Columbus- they beat Buckeyes 81-54 in Big 14 tourney last March. OSU is 0-4 in Big 14, giving up 75+ points in all four games; their last two losses were by 10-23 points. Big 14 home favorites of less than 5 points are 7-3 vs spread.
Rhode Island lost its last two games to Dayton/LaSalle; they’re looking like a bubble team with an unimpressive resume. Rams are shooting 46.1% on arc in A-14 games, only 56% on foul line. Go figure. UMass won nine of last 11 games vs Rhode Island, ousting Rams from A-14 tourney 67-62 last March; home side won last four series games. Minutemen lost last two visits here, by 16-18 points. UMass upset Dayton in its last game after losing first three A-14 games by 12-5-17 points; A-14 double digit home favorites are 4-7 vs spread this season.
Cincinnati won its last seven games, is 4-0 in AAC, with road wins by 6 at Temple, 9 at Houston. Bearcats have #3 eFG% defense in country. Cincinnati is 3-1 vs East Carolina in AAC play, splitting pair of games here; they won 65-56 LY at ECU, losing 50-46 in 2015. Underdogs covered all four series games. Pirates lost their last four games, scoring 52.3 pts/game; they’re 1-4 in AAC, with home losses by 31 to SMU, 16 to Houston. Coach Lebo will be leaving for a hip operation soon. AAC double digit favorites are 3-2 vs spread this season.
Loyola lost four of last six games after a 10-2 start; they’re 1-5 vs teams ranked in top 150, with only win over San Diego St. Ramblers shoot 39.9% on arc, have #5 eFG% in country. Loyola won three of last four games with Missouri State, underdogs covered four of last six series games. Bears lost two of last three games at Loyola, losing by 32-14 points before a 56-54 win here LY. State is 3-2 in Valley, with all three wins by 4 or less points or in OT. MVC home favorites of 7 or less points are 6-4 vs spread this season.
Northern Iowa lost its last seven games and 11 of last 13; they’re 0-5 in Valley, with home losses by 4-14 points to Missouri St, Wichita. Panthers have #304 eFG% defense in country. Northern Iowa is 13-2 in its last 15 games with Drake, winning last four by 24-16-33-16 points. Bulldogs lost their last seven visits to UNI, with all seven losses by 10+ points. Drake won four of last six games under an interim coach, but lost its two MVC road games, by 14 at Southern Illinois, by 25 at Wichita State. MVC home favorites of 7+ points are 3-6 vs spread.
George Washington lost four of last five games, losing last game by 30 to VCU; Colonials lost last three home games by 8-5-30 points- they’re turning ball over 21.1% of time in A-14 games. Home side won last five George Washington-LaSalle games; Colonials lost last four games on Tom Gola Court, by 15-14-4-13 points. LaSalle lost 80-50 at GW LY. Explorers won last three games, scoring 82.7 pts/game; they’re 8-3 in last 11 games, with losses to Dayton and two Big East teams. A-14 home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-6 vs spread.
Indiana lost four of last five games after a 10-2 start; they’ve already lost to Nebraska/Wisconsin in Big 14 home games. Hoosiers are turning ball over 21.7% of time in league play, shooting 44.3% on arc- that adds up to 1-3. Indiana won its three Big 14 games with Rutgers, by 8-30-7 points; Scarlet Knights lost 72-64 in last visit here, two years ago. Rutgers 0-5 in conference play, losing road games by 20-28-6 points- they’re last in league in six of nine offensive metrics. Double digit favorites are 5-3 in Big 14 games so far this season.
SMU had its 10-game win streak snapped by hoop at Cincy Thursday; Mustangs are 2-1 on AAC road, winning by 4 at Memphis, 31 at ECU- they’re playing slowest tempo in AAC, and also grabbing 46% of their own missed shots. SMU won its three AAC games with Tulane by 14-15-21 points; they won 66-52/60-45 in last two visits to Bourbon Street. Green Wave plays fastest tempo in AAC, forces turnovers 24.3% of time, but they’re 1-3 in ACC, with home losses by 13-21 points. AAC double digit favorites are 3-2 vs spread this season.
Georgia Tech is 2-2 in ACC, with wins as home dogs of 17, 9 points- they lost by 53 at Duke in only ACC road game so far. Yellow Jackets are 3-6 vs top 100 teams, 7-0 vs everyone else; they’ve got #308 eFG%. NC State won five of its last six games with Georgia Tech, with its last two series wins both in OT. Tech (+3.5) won 90-83 in Raleigh LY. State won its last three visits to Ga Tech by 9-1-13 points. Wolfpack are 1-3 in ACC but beat Va Tech by 26 in only home game; loss at BC last time out was bad. Single digit home favorites are 8-3 in ACC games this season.
Northwestern is 5-4 vs top 100 teams; they won last two games by 8-9 points, allowing 63 pts/game; they’ve got #10 eFG% defense in country. Wildcats keep winning games like this, they’ll make NCAAs for first time. Iowa won seven of its last nine games with Northwestern, winning two of last three visits to Evanston. Hawkeyes won last two series games by 17-14 points. Iowa won eight of its last ten games but is 0-2 on big 14 road, losing by 22 at Purdue, by 3 in double OT at Nebraska. Big 14 home favorites of 6+ points are 5-7 vs spread this season.
USC lost three of its last four games after a 14-0 start; they’re 0-2 on Pac-12 road, losing by 23 at Oregon, 22 at Utah. Trojans are #329 experience team, so this makes sense. Colorado won seven of last eight games with USC, losing last meeting 79-72 in LA LY. Trojans lost last three trips to Boulder by 6-21-21 points. Buffaloes are 0-4 in Pac-12, allowing 85 pts/game; league opponents are shooting 49.4% on arc vs Colorado this month. Pac-12 favorites of 3 or less points are 0-5 against the spread so far this season.
Rider had bad loss at Manhattan Friday night; they’re in 5-way tie for first (in loss column) in MAAC. Broncs beat Siena/Niagara at home, lost to Fairfield. Rider is 9-3 in its last 12 games with St Peter’s, but Peacocks won two of last three visits to Broncs’ Gym. Visitors won five of last six series games. St Peter’s hasn’t played since Monday; their last two games were decided by total of six points. Peacocks lost by hoop at Siena in their only MAAC road game this season. MAAC single digit home favorites are 7-11 vs spread this season.
Siena won its last two games by 2-7 points after a dismal 4-11 start to season; Saints are 0-10 in true road games, losing their three MAAC road games by total of 10 points. Siena won five of last seven meetings with Fairfield; they beat Stags 80-73 at home Dec 3, holding Stags to 6-23 from in game that Siena led by 10 at the half. Saints won two of last three visits hereFairfield is 3-2 in its last five games, beating BC in a game they were favored to win, then they lost by 6 at Penn. MAAC favorites of less than 5 points are 5-8 vs spread this season.
Armadillosports.com
Dave's CBB Sunday
By Dave Essler
Michigan State/Ohio State: Obviously the inclination is to bet on the Spartans, especially getting points. They did have one decent road win, at Minnesota in OT - in a game they trailed big at one time. Ohio State doesn't have the signature win yet and in fact doesn't really have a good win, period. Losers of four straight, three on the road, and blown out by the Badgers the other night. Yet, favored. The "revenge" angle is clearly with the Buckeyes, having lost three times to MSU last season. I'd simply have to take the Buckeyes here, as hard as that is. They've got a sizable length advantage, defend the perimeter well, shoot better from the line, and have been better at protecting the ball. Add in some experience. There's a lot of pressure on OSU to win this, thus avoiding an 0-5 conference start, especially given that they've got another road game at Nebraska on Wednesday. However, I wouldn't bet more than I could afford to lose on them. I think the 1H stays under since both teams might be a little hesitant, which could set up a good 2H bet - which is probably the smartest thing (a 2H bet) IMO. Not overly confident either way. But, it's televised and there's no football to interrupt, so people WILL bet on it.
USS/Colorado: Those that know me know that I've got a tough time fading Colorado at home, especially against an up tempo team. They were able to score against UCLA and got to the line a TON, but they just couldn't stop the Bruins from scoring. Colorado is in a similar position as Ohio State in that they're trying not to start Conference play 0-5, right down to the "road game Wednesday" part. SoCal doesn't have a great road win, although the beat Texas A & M on the road, albeit almost two months ago. They are also looking to avoid a horrid conference start - the Buffs have the experience, the Bruins have the length and athleticism, and will want to run. Neither team turns it over a ton (usually) and both teams spend time at the stripe, so I think the best bet here is "over" - especially given that it may be a close game, i.e. fouls late if need be.
Iowa/Northwestern: The Wildcats come in hot - winners of three of four Conference games on the road. Not easy, even against mediocre teams. Iowa has lost both Big 10 road games, and doesn't have a decent win on the road this season, so based on that one would have to like the home team here. Iowa is going to want to run, NW is going to want to slow it down. Northwestern plays far better defense and shoot 77% from the line, which is always hard to bet against. Inasmuch as I don't like giving a decent team two possessions, -6/-6.5 is about my upper limit because it's two possessions - and that's a bit less than I thought it'd open at. The "over" looks entirely too easy, and my inclination is that if it's a high scoring game, it'd favor Iowa. NW won't want that, so I may way for the total to go up (it should) and take a look at the under.