NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, January 29th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Virginia outscored Villanova 26-13 on foul line, made 8-12 on arc in 86-75 win over the Wildcats LY; Cavaliers led by 4 at the half. Villanova lost its last game Tuesday, blowing 17-point lead in a 74-72 loss at Marquette- Wildcats played only seven guys, were 6-34 on arc. Virginia won last five games, including wins at Clemson/Notre Dame; their last loss was to Pitt squad that is 0-6 since that game. Villanova is shooting 59.7% inside arc; they’re 2nd-best team in country at not putting their opponents on foul line. This game is pace #330 (Villanova) vs pace #350.
Louisville won five of its last six games, with only loss at Florida St by 3; Cardinals are missing their PG, but they’ve won last three home games, by 5-9-32 points. Louisville is 2-1 vs NC State in ACC games, winning last two by 10-5 points, but Wolfpack’s win was in Louisville two years ago. State is 3-5 in ACC, 1-3 on road, but they won last game at Duke; their road losses are by 18-51-8 points. Wolfpack is turning ball over 19.8% of time; Louisville forces turnovers 19.3% of time in ACC games. Double digit favorites are 5-6 vs spread in ACC games this season.
Michigan State won its last four games with Michigan, all by 10+ points; Wolverines lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 10-23-10 points. Spartans lost last three games overall, by 5-7-11 points; they’re 3-1 at home in Big 14 games, winning by 9-28-18 points, with only home loss to Purdue. Michigan won three of last four games but is 0-3 on Big 14 road, losing by 3-16-4 points. Wolverines have worst eFG% defense in Big 14; opponents are shooting 49.2% on the arc against them in league tilts. Big 14 home favorites of 5 or less points are 14-8.
Green Bay won eight of its last ten games; they’re 3-1 on Horizon road, with only loss by 24 at Valparaiso- their road wins are by 1-13-8 points. Last four Phoenix wins were all by 8+ points. Green Bay won its last six games with Detroit, winning last three here by 9-1-6 points. Titans lost their last three games, by 18-14-4 points; they’re 1-3 in Horizon home games, losing by 11-13-4 points. These teams play fastest tempos in Horizon. Horizon home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-9 against the spread.
Arizona State lost four of last five games; they’re 2-1 at home in Pac-12, losing to Utah by 6, beating Colorado by 1, Washington by 11. Pac-12 opponents are shooting 57.5% inside arc against the Sun Devils. ASU won five of last six games with Washington State, winning last six games here, winning by 25-2-4-12-19-11 points. Wazzu lost five of last six games, losing last three road games, by 30-4-17 points. Coogs are 11th in Pac-12, shooting 33.3% on arc. Double digit favorites are 8-13 vs spread in Pac-12 games this season.
Arizona won its last 13 games, is 4-0 at home in Pac-12, winning by 10-9-16-17 points; with Trier back in lineup, they’re at 100% for first time this year. Wildcats are shooting 43.6% on arc in Pac-12 games. Washington is 2-6 in Pac-12, 0-3 on road, losing by 10-7-11 points; they gave up 87.7 pts/game in last three games. Arizona won five of last six meetings with Washington, but lost 70-64 in Seattle in last meeting LY. Huskies lost last three visits to Tucson, by 18-9-32 points. Pac-12 home favorites of 15+ points are 3-5 vs spread this season.
Illinois State won its last ten games, is 9-0 in MVC, 4-0 on road, winning away games by 22-19-7-20 points; Redbirds are holding Valley Opponents to 36.4% inside arc. Evansville lost its last seven games, is 1-3 in MVC home games, with losses by 11-12-17 points- their only home win was over No Iowa by 12. ISU won five of its last six games with Evansville, beating Purple Aces 62-50 in first meeting Dec 29 in Normal. Redbirds won last two visits here, by 2-10 points. MVC road favorites of 5+ points are 5-2 against the spread.
Ill-Chicago lost its last two games, by 31-17 points; Flames are 2-2 in Horizon home games, with wins by 14-14 points- they lost to Valpo/No Kentucky. Wright State won three of last four games; they’re 3-1 at home in Horizon, with wins by 4-18-21 points- they lost to Youngstown by 5. Flames are turning ball over 22.8% of time in Horizon play, too much. UIC won four of last six games with Wright State; Raiders lost last two visits here, by 15-5 points- teams split pair of games in last two Horizon tourneys. Horizon road favorites are 7-3 vs spread.
Nebraska lost its last five games after a 9-6 start, losing last two home games by 1-8 points; teams are shooting 41.5% on arc vs Cornhuskers in league games. Purdue won five of its last six games; they’re 2-1 on Big 14 road, with wins by 1-11 points, at Ohio St/Michigan St. Boilers are shooting 82.5% on foul line in league games. Purdue is 7-2 vs Nebraska in Big 14 games, winning last three meetings by 12-15-19 points; Boilers won two of three visits to Lincoln. Big 14 home underdogs are 9-5 vs spread this season.
Xavier is 1-4 since they beat St John’s 97-82 at home Jan 7, making 10-21 on arc- game was 54-39 at half. Musketeers lost their rivalry game with Cincinnati Thursday, despite making 15-28 on arc- they’re 5-2 vs Johnnies in Big East play, winning last three meetings by 8-7-15 points- they’re 2-1 in series here, winning by 12-8 points. St John’s is 2-2 at home in Big East, losing by 13 to Creighton, 13 to Villanova- they beat Butler/DePaul. Red Storm is forcing turnovers 20% of time in conference games. Big East road favorites are 7-7-1 vs spread.
Stanford won three of its last four games, but they’re 1-3 on Pac-12 road, losing by 16-14-17 points to the LA schools and Arizona- they won at Arizona State. Cardinal is forcing turnovers 21.2% of time but shooting just 31.3% on arc. Stanford won four of its last five games with Cal, winning three of last four visits to Berkeley, but Bears won last meeting by 15 LY. Cal won four of its last five games, winning last three home games, by 16-10-4 points. Pac-12 home favorites of 8 or less points are 8-5 against the spread.
Northwestern has its first five-game Big 14 winning streak (four wins by 8+ points) since 1944; they won last two home games, by 35-12 points. Indiana has severe injury problems; Anunoby/Blackmon are out. Hoosiers won three of last four games; they’re 1-2 on Big 14 road, losing by 3 at Maryland, 30 at Michigan- they won by 3 at Penn State. Indiana won five of last seven games with Northwestern, splitting last four visits to Evanston- they crushed Wildcats 89-57 LY at Indiana. Big 14 home favorites of 7+ points are 13-9 vs spread.
Iona won its last four games, scoring 84.8 pts/game; Gaels are only 3-3 on MAAC road- they’re shooting 41.7% from arc in league games. St Peter’s won six of its last seven games, winning last three road tilts, at Rider/Fairfield/Marist- they’re forcing turnovers 21.7% of time, tops in MAAC. Iona won three in row, seven of last eight games with St Peter’s, beating Peacocks 79-65 in first meeting Dec 2 in Jersey City. St Peter’s lost last six visits to New Rochelle, by 18-37-19-3-7-6 points. MAAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-11 vs spread.
Armadillosports.com
Sunday's Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
This Sunday’s college basketball betting action gets underway with a big ACC/Big East clash between the No. 12 Virginia Cavaliers and the No. 1 Villanova Wildcats at 1:00 p.m. (ET). At the same time in the ACC, the North Carolina State Wolfpack will go on the road to face the No. 13 Louisville Cardinals.
No. 12 Virginia Cavaliers at No. 1 Villanova Wildcats
Opening Odds: Villanova -4½
Betting Matchup
Virginia is one game off the pace for the lead in the ACC at 6-2 straight-up in conference play following this past Tuesday’s 71-54 victory against No. 14 Notre Dame as a 1½-point road underdog. The 16-3 Cavaliers are now 4-1 against the spread in their last five games and the total has stayed UNDER in their last three outings.
They are a profitable 6-1 ATS this season on the road. Senior guard London Perrantes led all scorers in the win over the Irish with 22 points. He is the team’s leading scorer this season with an average of 12.3 points as part of Virginia’s 69.6 points per game. Defense is still the name of the game for the Cavaliers with a points-allowed average of 53.3 that is ranked first in the nation.
The nation’s top team saw its current five-game winning streak come to a stunning halt with Tuesday’s 74-72 loss to Marquette as a 5½-point favorite on the road. Villanova (19-2 SU) has failed to cover in its last two games to fall to 13-8 ATS overall. The total stayed UNDER the 151 ½-point closing line in that loss and it has stayed UNDER in seven of its last nine games.
The Wildcats blew a 17-point lead against the Golden Eagles while going a dismal 6-for-34 from three-point range. The starting five accounted for 66 of the team’s 72 points with sophomore guard Mikal Bridges posting a game-high 20 points in a losing effort. It was just the second time in 12 games that Villanova allowed more than 70 points.
Betting Trends
The Cavaliers are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Big East, but they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 nonconference games. The total has stayed UNDER in 19 of their last 26 games on the road.
The Wildcats have covered ATS in their last four games against the ACC and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games played on Sunday.
Virginia won last season’s meeting 86-75 as a 5½-point home favorite. The total went OVER the closing 130-point line.
N.C. State Wolfpack at No. 13 Louisville Cardinals
Opening Odds: Louisville -15
Betting Matchup
It has been tough sledding for NC State in the ACC this season at 3-5 (SU and ATS), but it comes into this matchup with some serious momentum following this past Monday’s stunning 84-82 upset against Duke as a heavy 16½-point road underdog. The total in that game went OVER 160 and it has gone OVER in three of its last four games.
The Wolfpack got a huge effort from freshman guard Dennis Smith Jr., who posted 32 points while going 10-for-18 from the field and 4-for-6 from three-point range. He has been the team’s leading scorer all season long with 19.5 PPG. NC State (14-7 SU, 9-10 ATS) is ranked 26th in the nation in scoring with 81.7 PPG, but it is giving up an average of 77.4 points at the other end of the court.
The Cardinals improved their record in the ACC to 5-3 (SU and ATS) with Tuesday’s 106-51 obliteration of Pittsburgh as 4½-point road favorites. This was their fourth cover in a row and the total has gone OVER in four of their last five games.
Louisville returns home with a profitable 9-2 record ATS at the KFC Yum! Center this season. It had five players score in double figures against Pitt led by sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell’s 29 points. He hit six of his eight shots from three-point range as part of a 9-for-13 shooting performance from the field.
The downside to that win was the loss of senior guard Tony Hicks, who will miss the next six to eight weeks with a broken hand.
Betting Trends
The Wolfpack are 1-5ATS in their last six road games and they have failed to cover in four of their last five Sunday games. The total has gone OVER in 15 of their last 22 ACC games.
The Cardinals are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games against a team with a SU winning record, but they fall to 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played on a Sunday. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games following a SU win.
Head-to-head in this ACC tilt, Louisville has a SU 2-1 edge in the last three meetings, but NC State is 2-1 ATS. The total has gone OVER in all three games.