NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, March 12th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Atlantic 14 tournament, Pittsburgh
VCU is in A-14 tourney final for 5th year in row; they went 1-3 in finals last four years. VCU beat crosstown rival Richmond in OT yesterday, is already in NCAA’s; Rhode Island needs win here to make NCAAs. URI was 31-39 on foul line in 69-59 home win over VCU 15 days ago, only meeting this season, when VCU was 1-15 on arc- that was Rhode Island’s first win in five A-14 games vs VCU. URI had easy time with Davidson yesterday; too one played more than 28:00. VCU played nine kids 9+ minutes yesterday; Lewis played 37:00, Alie-Cox 36:00.
SEC tournament, Nashville
Kentucky is 18-3 in SEC tournament the last eight years; they won this event the last two years. Arkansas lost 97-71 in Rupp Arena Jan 7, but game was 41-38 at half; Wildcats were 28-40 on foul line at home. Razorbacks won eight of last nine games; they whacked a good Vanderbilt team by 14 yesterday, playing no one more than 29:00. Over last decade, Arkansas is 0-3 in SEC tourney final, last making it two years ago (lost 78-63 to Kentucky). Wildcats won their last four games vs Arkansas, winning by 17-15-14-26 points.
Sun Belt tournament, New Orleans
Troy is playing for 4th time in five days; Texas State for third day in row. Trojans won five in row, nine of last 11 games; they’re #58 in experience, starting three juniors, one senior. Texas State starts three seniors, plays 8th-slowest tempo in country; they upset #1-seed Tex-Arlington by 21 yesterday, scoring an uncharacteristically high 83 points, Bobcats swept Troy State this year, winning both games by four points; they’re 4-4 overall in Sun Belt games with Troy. Troy played four guys 30:00+ yesterday in win over Georgia State; Texas State played two guys 32:00+.
Big 10 tournament, Washington DC
Michigan is playing 4th day in row, Wisconsin third day in row. Wolverines won four games in row, nine of last 11; they’re #60 experience team in country. Badgers allowed 54 pts/game in wins over Indiana/Northwestern last two days; they’re #62 experience team, used one guy more than 30:00 yesterday. Teams split pair of games this year; Badgers won 68-64 at home Jan 17, after being down 8 in second half. Michigan won rematch 64-58 Feb 16, when Badgers were just 3-16 on arc. Walton/Irvin both played 37:00 yesterday in Wolverines’ win vs Minnesota.
AAC tournament, Hartford
Cincinnati/SMU will both be popular sleepers in brackets next week; teams split pair of wins this season- Bearcats won first meeting 66-64 at home Jan 17, going 12-26 on arc. Mustangs won rematch 60-51 at home Feb 12; they played only six guys that day. SMU used three kids 38+ minutes yesterday in an easy win- again, only six guys played- they’ve won 15 games in a row since the loss at Cincinnati. Bearcats won 22 of last 24 games, with only other loss at Central Florida. SMU shot 41.7% on arc in AAC games; Cincy is #2 in AAC at defending the arc.
Ivy League tournament, Philadelphia
Princeton is 15-0 in Ivy League games this year, but needs win here to make NCAA’s; they needed OT to beat 13-15 Penn on its home court yesterday. Tigers haven’t been in NCAA’s since 2011- they also haven’t lost since Monmouth beat them Dec 20. Princeton swept its games with Yale this season, 66-58 at home Jan 14, 71-52 in New Haven Feb 17. Bulldogs used three guys 30:00+ yesterday. Tigers are #65 experience team in country; Yale is #286. These teams normally play back/back days, unlike most leagues.
Armadillosports.com
SEC Tournament Final Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Kentucky and its freshman-heavy lineup appear to be peaking just in time to be a national championship contender, and the top-seeded Wildcats will try to keep their hot streak rolling in the SEC Tournament championship game against Arkansas on Sunday. The Wildcats have won a season-best 10 straight following a 79-74 win over Alabama in Saturday’s semifinals.
The Razorbacks reached the tournament final for the second time in three years with a 76-62 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday, while Kentucky is in the title game for the seventh time in coach John Calipari’s eight seasons. The Wildcats are 30-10 all-time in the SEC Tournament final and have won four tournament titles under Calipari. Arkansas is looking for just its second SEC Tournament title and its first since 2000, when the Razorbacks also were the No. 3 seed. The Wildcats routed the Razorbacks 97-71 at home on Jan. 7, but Arkansas has been a different team of late, winning eight of its last nine games.
LINE HISTORY: The top seeded Kentucky Wildcats opened as 8.5-point favorites over the Arkansas Razorbacks and the total hit the betting board at 161. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Arkansas - G RJ Glasper (Out Indefinitely, shoulder).
Kentucky - F Sacha Killeya-Jones (Questionable, illness).
POWER RANKINGS: Arkansas (-5.6) - Kentucky (-17.7) + neutral site (0) = Kentucky -12.1
ABOUT ARKANSAS (25-8 SU, 17-14 ATS, 16-15 O/U): The Razorbacks displayed their balance against Vanderbilt, as Jaylen Barford led four players in double-figures. Barford (12.6 points) has scored in double digits in eight straight games and has led the team in scoring five times in the last eight games. Leading scorer Dusty Hannahs (14.6 points) and reserve guard Daryl Macon (13.3 points) also have been in double figures in both tournament games, and big man Moses Kingsley (11.9 points, 7.9 rebounds) posted a double-double with 12 points and 13 rebounds on Saturday.
ABOUT KENTUCKY (28-5 SU, 17-16 ATS, 17-16 O/U): The Wildcats can breathe a sigh of relief after freshman phenom Malik Monk (20.5 points) broke out of a brief two-game shooting slump to score 20 points, but fellow freshman De’Aaron Fox continued his hot streak with a career-high 28 points against Alabama. Fox (16.1 points, 4.9 assists, 4.2 rebounds) has averaged 22.3 points over the past three games, and his big game against the Crimson Tide helped offset a quiet outing from backcourt mate Isaiah Briscoe (12.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists). Freshman big man Bam Adebayo has averaged 14 points and 10 rebounds over the past nine games with three double-doubles over that span.
TRENDS:
* Razorbacks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.
* Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
* Under is 4-0 in Razorbacks last 4 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 games as a favorite.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Big Ten Conference Tournament Final Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Michigan may be able to claim to be the Big Ten's hottest team, but 23rd-ranked Wisconsin has made it clear no squad in the conference has played better over the last week. The second-seeded Badgers eye their second Big Ten tournament title in three years and fourth overall on Sunday, when they face the eighth-seeded Wolverines in the championship game in Washington D.C.
Wisconsin dropped five of six games to fall out of contention for the regular-season conference title, but it has flashed the same form over the last week - especially on defense - that allowed it to race out to a 21-3 start to the campaign. Following a 17-point home victory last Sunday over Minnesota in its regular-season finale, Wisconsin held Indiana's league-best offense more than 20 points below its season average in Friday's 70-60 quarterfinal triumph before limiting Northwestern to a season-low point total in a 76-48 semifinal rout the following day. Michigan shot 63.3 percent in the first half and led by as many as 16 points before settling for an 84-77 victory over Minnesota in Saturday's other semifinal - its fourth straight win and ninth in 11 games. The Wolverines, who are the lowest seed to reach the conference tournament final since No. 10 seed Illinois did so in 2008, are seeking their first Big Ten championship since the inaugural event in 1998 - a title the school was forced to later vacate due to NCAA sanctions.
LINE HISTORY: The Badgers opened the Big Ten championship favored by one-point and have been bet up to the current number of -1.5. The total hit the board at 128 and was bet up to 128.5, before being bet down to the current number of 127.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT MICHIGAN: Derrick Walton Jr. (15 points, 4.7 assists) recorded 19 of his career-high 29 points - one shy of Trey Burke's school record for a Big Ten tournament game - in the second half Saturday and either scored or assisted on 18 of his team's final 20. Moritz Wagner (12.1 points), who registered 21 points in a meeting with Wisconsin on Feb. 16, poured in 17 on 6-for-7 shooting versus Minnesota after going 3-of-11 for 11 over his first two tournament games. Playing their fourth contest in as many days, the Wolverines likely will need more from their bench, which has produced only 28 of the team's 233 points in this tournament.
ABOUT WISCONSIN: Ethan Happ (13.9 points, 9.1 rebounds) produced his highest-scoring output in six games with 16 points Saturday - uncharacteristically doing much of his damage from the free-throw line, where the sophomore forward was 8-of-11 after entering the game as a 47.5-percent foul shooter. Nigel Hayes (13.5 points, 6.4 boards) posted game highs of 18 points and 10 rebounds against Northwestern and was the only other Badger to attempt a free throw (2-of-4) but one of five to hit exactly two 3-pointers as the team finished with 12. Since going scoreless in a loss at Ohio State on Feb. 23, Zak Showalter (8.3 points) is averaging 12 points on 23-of-38 shooting, including 11-of-22 from beyond the arc.
TRENDS:
* Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last five neutral site games.
* Underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in Michigan's last six neutral site games as an underdog.
* Under is 9-1 in Wisconsin's last 10 neutral site games.
AAC Tournament Finals Betting Preview
By Covers.com
No. 15 SMU has won 15 games in a row and 25 of its last 26 as it rolls into Sunday’s American Athletic Conference tournament title game in Hartford, Conn., against 18th-ranked Cincinnati after posting its school-record 29th victory of the season in Saturday’s semifinal contest versus Central Florida. The top-seeded Mustangs shot 55 percent as their starting five accounted for all the offense in a 70-59 victory, with Sterling Brown scoring 22 points.
The Mustangs also are playing well defensively, allowing 66 points or fewer in 23 of their last 26 games. The second-seeded Bearcats are the last team to have defeated SMU, posting a 66-64 home victory on Jan. 12, but the Mustangs got even with a 60-51 home triumph on Feb. 12. Cincinnati has captured seven of its last eight games as Gary Clark scored a team-high 25 points off the bench in an 81-71 semifinal victory over Connecticut. Sunday's matchup features two of the best defensive teams in the nation, as SMU is third with 59.9 points allowed while the Bearcats are fourth at 60.5.
LINE HISTORY: The Mustangs, who are one of the nation's best bets at 21-6-1 ATS, hit the board as 2-point chalk for the AAC Final. The total hit the board at 130.5 and has seen nothing but under moving, moving down to 128.5. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT CINCINNATI: Clark, who rebounded from a five-point performance in Friday’s quarterfinal contest against Tulsa, finished 15-of-16 from the free-throw line against UConn and pulled down nine rebounds. Jacob Evans has scored 41 points in two games during the tournament, while leading scorer Kyle Washington looks to bounce back after foul trouble rendered him scoreless on Saturday. The Bearcats have allowed more than 68 points only once in their last 13 games.
ABOUT SMU: AAC Player of the Year Semi Ojeleye has scored 52 points through two games of the tournament, while Brown is shooting 64.1 percent overall and 13-of-23 from 3-point range over his last four contests. SMU is limiting opponents to 38.6 percent shooting. The Mustangs have reached the NCAA Tournament just once since 1993 (two seasons ago) and have not won a game in the event since 1988.
TRENDS:
* Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Southern Methodist is 23-5-1 ATS in is last 29 games as a favorite.
* Over is 5-1 in Cincinnati's last six neutral site games.
* Over is 7-0 in Southern Methodist's last seven games overall.
Sunday's Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
It may be Selection Sunday for everyone waiting for the final bracket to be set for the 68 teams in this season’s NCAA Tournament, but it is Championship Sunday for the top two teams left in this week’s SEC and Big Ten Tournaments.
Title games in the Atlantic 10, American Athletic, Sun Belt and the Ivy League Tournament are also on Sunday’s slate.
SEC Championship
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Opening Odds: Kentucky -8½, Total 160½
Betting Matchup
The Razorbacks came into this week’s SEC Tournament as the third seed after going 12-6 straight-up in conference play. They squeaked past Mississippi 73-72 as 4½-point favorites in their tournament opener before hammering Vanderbilt 76-62 on Saturday as four-point underdogs to earn a spot in Sunday’s title game.
Arkansas (25-8 SU, 17-14 ATS) is now 8-1 SU in its last nine games while going a profitable 7-2 against the spread. The total has stayed UNDER in four of its last five contests. Junior guard Jaylen Barford scored a game-high 18 points in Saturday’s win and senior forward Moses Kingsley added 12 points and 13 rebounds to the winning cause.
It is no big surprise that Kentucky is in the title game after winning the SEC regular season crown with a SU record of 16-2. The Wildcats (28-5 SU, 16-16-1 ATS) got things started on Friday by upending Georgia 71-60 in a game that ended in a PUSH. They then faced Alabama in the semifinals as 10-point favorites, but could not cover in a tight five-point win. Kentucky has now won its last 10 games SU, but it is a spotty 2-4-1 ATS in its last seven outings.
Freshman guard De’Aaron Fox went off for 28 points against the Crimson Tide after scoring 20 points against the Bulldogs. This was the third game in a row that he eclipsed his 16.1 point scoring average.
Betting Trends
The Razorbacks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site games and they have failed to cover in four out of their last five games on a Sunday. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four games following a SU win.
The Wildcats are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 Sunday games and they have covered in eight of their last 11 games played at a neutral site. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games as favorites.
Head-to-head in this SEC tilt, the favorite has covered in the last four meetings including Kentucky’s 97-71 victory earlier in the season as a 17½-point home favorite. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings.
Big Ten Championship
Michigan Wolverines vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Opening Odds: Wisconsin -1½, Total 127½
Betting Matchup
With six SU victories in their last eight regular season games, the Wolverines (23-11 SU, 15-16 ATS) brought some momentum into this week’s Big Ten Tournament as the eighth seed. They kept things rolling right into this championship game with victories against No. 9 Illinois as favorites and against No. 1 Purdue and No. 4 Minnesota as underdogs. Michigan is now 5-1 both SU and ATS in its last six games.
The total has gone OVER the closing line in seven of its last eight contests. Senior guard Derrick Walton Jr. put an exclamation point on Saturday’s win in the semifinals with a game-high 29 points to go along with nine assists and five rebounds. He has been the team’s leading scorer this season with 15.0 points per game.
Wisconsin was second-best team in the Big Ten this season at 12-6 SU and it made its way into the championship with double-digit victories over Indiana and Northwestern both SU and ATS. The Badgers (25-8 SU, 15-15 ATS) had lost five of their final seven regular season contests (SU and ATS) including a 64-58 setback against Michigan on Feb. 16 as two-point road underdogs.
This followed a 68-64 victory against the Wolverines as 10½-point home favorites on Jan. 17. The total stayed UNDER in both games. Senior guard Bronson Koenig has been Wisconsin’s top scorer this season with 14.0 PPG. While he only scored eight points in Saturday’s win, he had exceeded that average in his previous five starts.
Betting Trends
The Wolverines have covered in their last five neutral-site games, but they fall to 2-5 ATS in their last seven Sunday games. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last 11 games as underdogs.
The Badgers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when favored by 6½ points or less; however they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six neutral-site games when closing as favorites.
The underdog in this Big Ten tilt is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six games between these two.
Other Games
Betting odds for some of the other conference title games on Sunday starts with Princeton favored by seven points against Yale in an Ivy League clash at 12 p.m. on ESPN2.
Rhode Island will square off against VCU in the Atlantic 10 Championship at 12:30 p.m. on CBS in a game that has been opened as a PICK.
Troy will play Texas State at 2 p.m. on ESPN as a 1½-point favorite in the Sun Belt title game and the final game of the day is a 3:15 p.m. tip on ESPN between SMU and Cincinnati in the AAC Championship. The Mustangs have been opened as two-point favorites over the Bearcats.
SEC Championship
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Arkansas is back in the SEC Tournament finals for the first time since the iconic Nolan Richardson Era. In reality, that’s how it should be.
With the emergence of Florida’s program over the last quarter-century, it’s not necessarily a given that Arkansas should be the SEC’s second-best program. However, there’s no reason whatsoever that the Razorbacks shouldn’t at least be the third-best SEC hoops program on a consistent basis.
Remember, Arkansas won more games than any school in America from the 1989-90 season to the 1995-96 campaign, bagging a national title in 1994 and nearly repeating in ’95 if not for Jim Harrick’s UCLA squad that was led by Ed O’Bannon and received extraordinary play from a true freshman point guard from Atlanta Douglass High School, Cameron Dollar. (Quick side note/thought: Back in my playing days at summer camps in the early ’90, Dollar dominated me like no other player ever has at B/C All-Star Camp in Georgia. He was bigger, quicker, stronger and just destroyed me and told me about it every step of the way.)
Arkansas has a rabid fan base, great history and an amazing venue in Bud Walton Arena. Nevertheless, since Richardson was forced out in Fayetteville, the Razorbacks have won just two NCAA Tournament games and Sunday’s invite will be just the fifth in the 15 years since Richardson was rudely dismissed.
That stretch of ineptitude is beyond unacceptable. Anderson was plucked away from Missouri with the hope that he’d bring Nolan’s style of play back since he served under him at Arkansas and Tulsa for 17 years. However, this year’s NCAA berth will be just the second of his six-year tenure.
But after Saturday’s effort to get back to the SEC Tournament finals for the second time in three seasons, perhaps things are looking up? For Arkansas standards, it’s going to take some mid-and-late March production to please the masses.
Arkansas (25-8 straight up, 17-14 against the spread) produced one of its best performances of the season in Saturday’s semifinal showdown with Vanderbilt, which had covered the spread in seven straight games while winning outright six times with the only defeat coming at UK in a game the Commodores led most of the way.
The win was the Razorbacks’ eighth in their last nine games. They’ve posted a stellar 7-2 ATS record during this hot stretch.
With its suffocating defense serving as the catalyst, Mike Anderson’s team quickly turned a 35-31 halftime lead into a blowout. A 29-6 run to start the second half resulted in a 27-point lead and the game was over midway through the second half.
The Razorbacks won by a 76-62 count, but that was a misleading final score. They obviously took the cash as four-point underdogs, hooking up money-line supporters with a nice +155 return (paid $155 on $100 wagers).
Jaylen Barford scored a team-best 18 points for the Hogs, while Dusty Hannahs produced 16 points. Moses Kingsley added 12 points and 13 rebounds, and Daryl Macon was also in double figures with 15 points.
The Arkansas defense forced 15 turnovers and held Vandy to a season-low 30.4 percent shooting from the field.
Kentucky (28-5 SU, 17-16 ATS) advanced to the finals with wins over Georgia (71-60) and Alabama. The Wildcats took the cash as 10.5-point favorites (it was push for some as many books moved the line to 11 in the 30 minutes prior to tip-off) in the win over UGA after a frenetic/wild finish in the final minutes for our purposes. UGA’s shot from halfcourt to cover at the buzzer nearly went in.
On Saturday in the first semifinal matchup at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, UK took out Alabama 79-74 in a hard-fought 40-minute struggle. The Crimson Tide covered the number as a 10.5-point underdog, while the 153 combined points soared ‘over’ the 135-point total.
With UK clinging to a two-point lead with 3:07 left, freshman point guard De’Aaron Fox decided to take over. And he did. Fox scored 14 of his game-high 28 points in the last seven minutes, hitting multiple key shots at crunch time.
The ‘Cats led by only one at intermission. John Calipari’s team went to the free-throw line 39 times compared to only 20 charity-stripe trips for Alabama. Malik Monk scored 20 points, while Edrice Adebayo added 10 points, nine rebounds and three steals.
Since getting shellacked by Florida 88-66 on Feb. 4 in Gainesville, UK has ripped off 10 straight wins. However, the ‘Cats are only 5-5 ATS during this stretch.
When these teams met at Rupp Arena on Jan. 7, Kentucky led by only three at halftime. But the second half was all UK, as it outscored the Hogs 56-33 en route to a 97-71 victory as a 17.5-point ‘chalk.’ The 168 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 168.5-point total.
Fox produced 27 points, six rebounds and six assists, while Derek Willis finished with 15 points and five rebounds on 3-of-5 shooting from downtown. Isaiah Briscoe added 15 points and eight boards. Monk and Adebayo were also in double figures with 12 and 11 points, respectively.
In the losing effort, Macon scored a team-best 15 points for the Razorbacks. Barford had 14 from off the bench in just 17 minutes of action. Kingsley also had 14 points with seven boards.
As of late Saturday night, most betting shops had Kentucky installed as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 161. There wasn’t a money line listed yet, but gamblers can expect Arkansas to be around +315ish on the comeback (risk $100 to win $315).
The ‘over’ is 17-16 overall for the ‘Cats, but they’ve watched the ‘under’ go 7-2 in their last nine games.
The ‘over’ is 16-15 overall for Arkansas, but the ‘under’ is 4-1 in its last five outings.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Arkansas has only won the SEC Tournament once in 2000. The ironic thing about that is that the ’94 and ’95 teams, both of whom played for all the marbles on a Monday night, didn’t win the SEC Tourney, while Nolan’s 2000 squad won it when it was on the bubble and had to cut the nets down to garner an NCAA invite.
This is UK's fourth consecutive trip to the SEC Tournament finals.
Watch the fudge out for Iowa State! I tweeted multiple times this weekend (before their destruction of West Virginia on Saturday night) that the Cyclones are a legit Final Four contender. It’s going to take a game-as-hell effort to send them back to Ames before the national semifinals. I was all over Iowa State as my guarantee (+3.5) last night, hitting that easily for a fifth straight pay-if-it-wins-only casher. I also had the Cyclones on the money line for a +155 return.
That dunk by Deonte Burton on the alley-oop last night!!! Get some of that.
I’ve always said that ‘Fresh Legs Theory’ is really just a cop-out for taking an ‘L’ and getting sent home from the conference tournament early in upset fashion. The premise behind it is that a team won’t spend energy galore playing three (and sometimes four like Duke this year) games in three days and have dead legs for the more important NCAA Tournament the following week. We have test cases to watch this year. On one hand (with the fresh legs), we have Florida, Kansas and Purdue. On the flip side, we can watch Michigan, Duke and, especially if it gets sent to the First Four in Dayton like last year, Vanderbilt. Unlike Michigan and Duke, Vandy only played three days in a row but one of those games went to overtime.
SEC Trends and Angles
VegasInsider.com
No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Arkansas
Arkansas erased any doubts of falling short of an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament by beating Mississippi and Vanderbilt the last two days to advance to the SEC tournament championship. The Razorbacks routed the Commodores on Saturday, 76-62 as Arkansas limited Vanderbilt to 30% shooting from the floor. Arkansas can sew up an automatic tournament berth on Sunday, but the task will be difficult against top-seed Kentucky. The Wildcats held off Alabama in the semifinals, 79-74, but failed to cover as 10½-point favorites. De’Aaron Fox led Kentucky with 28 points, while Malik Monk posted 20 points as the Wildcats seek their third straight SEC tournament championship. Kentucky knocked off Arkansas in the 2015 SEC title game, 78-63 to cash as 13½-point favorites. The Wildcats won their earlier matchup with the Razorbacks in January, 97-71 as 17½-point favorites, the fourth straight victory in the series. Following Saturday’s ATS loss, Kentucky dropped to 6-12 ATS the last 18 games, while their five-game OVER streak came to a halt. Projection: Kentucky 81 Arkansas 71
Big 10 Trends and Angles
VegasInsider.com
No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 Michigan
The Badgers and Wolverines will square off for the Big Ten Tournament title. Wisconsin was expected to be here after securing the No. 2 seed, but Michigan is a bit of a surprise. They ousted a No. 1 seed for the second straight season when they showed Purdue the door, and now have their eyes on a bigger prize. The two schools split their regular season series, each securing a win on their home court. Michigan ended up covering the spread in both games, a 64-58 win in Ann Arbor Feb. 16 and a 68-64 loss in Madison on Jan. 17. The Wolverines have cashed in four straight and they're 5-0 ATS in their past five neutral-site battles. They're also 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games against a team with a winning percentage over .600. Michigan has covered four of the past five meetings with the underdog 13-3 ATS in the past 16 in this series. The 'under' is also 13-6 in the past 19 meetings while going 9-1 in the past 10 neutral-site games for Wisconsin. The under is also 7-2 in Michigan's past nine on a neutral-site floor. Projection: Wisconsin 69 Michigan 64