NCAAB Betting News and Notes Sunday, March 26th, 2017

NCAAB Knowledge

In last 30 years, there have been four regional finals with 4-seed vs 7-seed- they’ve all come since ’05, with underdogs covering three of four- Michigan State was only favorite to cover, but they needed OT to do it. Last four years, underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in all regional finals. Home side won both South Carolina-Florida games this season; Gamecocks beat Florida 57-53 Jan 18 (Gators were 0-17 on arc), then lost rematch 81-66 Feb 21 (Florida was 9-19 on arc). South Carolina held Baylor to 0.76 pts/possession Friday; their two senior stars were only guys to play more than 29:00. Florida played four starters 32:00+ in its wild win late Friday night.

Malik Monk scored 47 points in Kentucky’s 103-100 win over North Carolina in Las Vegas back in December; Wildcats outscored UNC 8-2 over last 1:37 of game- they made 10-18 on arc for the game. Tar Heels made 9-17 on arc in game they trailed by 12 in first half. Calipari is 4-1 in regional finals at Kentucky, beating Carolina in this round in ’11. Tar Heels won nine of last 11 games, Kentucky won its last 14 games- their last loss was Feb 4. Both teams won fairly easily Friday night; Wildcats played four guys 32:00+. UNC played had a stress-free game vs Butler. Underdogs covered four of last five regional finals that featured a 1-seed and a 2-seed.

Armadillosports.com

East Regional Final
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Florida Gators (-3½) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (134½)

New York City -- Raise your hand if you had an All-SEC East Region finals at Madison Square Garden in New York City in your bracket? If your hand is up, now stop lying.

Whether or not anyone out there called this matchup ahead of a Villanova-Duke showdown (like I did), it will be fourth-seeded Florida and seventh-seeded South Carolina who will square off for the third time this season here at MSG on Sunday afternoon. The East Region finals will tip at 2:20 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

As of Saturday night, most betting shops had Florida (27-8 straight up, 19-13 against the spread) installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 134.5. The total opened at 132.5 points. The Gamecocks were +145 on the money line (risk $100 to win $145).

Florida won a thriller over Wisconsin 84-83 in overtime thanks to Chris Chiozza’s running 3-pointer at the buzzer. “For Chris to have the wherewithal to know that he can get all the way the length of the court in four seconds. He obviously utilized his speed and quickness and had tremendous composure, of course,” UF second-year head coach Mike White said.

“I just knew I had four seconds and I was trying to get down the court as fast as I could and if somebody was open I was going to pass it,” Chiozza said. “But I was really trying to get to the rim, but they did a good job of bumping me and slowing me down and that was the only shot I had, so I had to take that one.”

It was the second time UF won on a buzzer beater in the NCAA Tournament. The last time it was Mike Miller to beat Butler in the 2000 Tournament at Lawrence-Joel Coliseum. That Gator squad advanced to the final for the first time in school history before losing to Michigan St.’s ‘Flintstones’ team.

KeVaughn Allen likes the rims at MSG. The sophomore guard from Little Rock dropped 21 points on Duke at this venue in December, making 8-of-12 from the field and 3-of-5 launches from downtown. Allen made only 3-of-21 shots in Orlando last weekend, but the change of scenery served him well in Manhattan on Friday night. Allen erupted for a career-best 35 points, the most points ever scored by a Gator in Tourney history. He buried 11-of-24 looks from the field and 9-of-10 from the charity stripe.

Chiozza’s winning 3-ball gave him eight points to go with five assists, four rebounds and one steal. Kevarrius Hayes finished with eight points, seven boards, two blocks, one assist and one steal. Speaking of blocked shots, Canyon Barry had a crucial one with about 35 seconds left, chasing down a UW player who was ahead on a run-out with the Badgers leading by two. After Barry’s block, Chiozza shook a defender to break free for an easy layup to pull UF even.

However, back at the other end, UW’s Nigel Hayes was given an extremely kind whistle and sent to the line for a pair with four seconds remaining. Although Hayes went only 7-of-14 from the stripe for the game, including four misses in the extra session, he buried both like the senior stud he is. But Chiozza’s heroics moments later stole the show. UF blew a 12-point advantage with 5:23 remaining in regulation. Wisconsin senior point guard Bronson Koenig, who, like Hayes, produced so many big plays in 17 career NCAA Tournament games, came through again in the clutch, splashing the nets with a crucial trey to slice the deficit to 72-67 with 1:30 left.

An Ethan Happ layup on the next possession brought the Badgers within three with 44 ticks left. Next, Zak Showalter buried a running 3-pointer (very similar to the one Chiozza would make later) with 2.9 seconds remaining to force the extra session.

South Carolina (25-10 SU, 14-16 ATS) advanced to its first Elite Eight in program history by blasting Baylor 70-50 as a three-point underdog Friday night. Frank Martin’s squad roared out to a 37-22 halftime lead. Defense was the key in this game, as USC forced 16 turnovers, won the rebounding battle by a 37-29 margin and forced Baylor into a deplorable shooting night. The Bears made 17-of-56 (30.4%) shots from the field and only 3-of-13 from long distance (23.1%).

Sindarius Thornwell scored 24 points to go with six rebounds, two assists, two steals and a pair of blocked shots. For the Tournament, Thornwell is averaging 25.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.3 blocked shots per game.

Chris Silva has also come up huge during USC’s improbable Tourney run in the fifth season of Frank Martin’s tenure. Silva had his minutes limited to 25 due to foul trouble, but he still managed 12 points, seven rebounds, two blocks and one steal. P.J. Dozier contributed 12 points, six boards, three assists and two steals, while Duane Notice added 11 points, five rebounds and four assists.

South Carolina advanced to the region semifinals with wins over Marquette (93-73) and Duke (88-81). The Gamecocks had slumped coming into the Tournament from mid-February, losing six of their last nine games, including double-digit losses at Florida and vs. Alabama at the SEC Tourney.

These SEC rivals split a pair of regular-season games with both home teams winning. The first matchup went down in Columbia, where Martin’s club captured a 57-53 victory as a two-point home favorite. The 110 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 135.5-point total.

UF led 28-21 at intermission, but the Gators finished the game missing all 17 of their 3-point attempts. Also, they were an abysmal 15-of-28 (53.6%) from the free-throw line.

Thornwell scored a game-high 20 points for the winners. Silva had 11 points, seven boards and two rejections. In the losing effort, Barry scored a team-best 13 points.

In the rematch at the O-Dome on Feb. 21, UF took a two-point lead into halftime, but the competitive contest didn’t stay that way for long in the final 20 minutes. Allen, who scored just one point in the first meeting at USC, scored 26 points and grabbed a career-high seven rebounds to lead the Gators to an 81-66 win as 7.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 147 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 136.5-point tally.

Devin Robinson added 14 points, six rebounds, three blocks and two steals for the winners. Chiozza finished with 12 points, four assists and three boards, while Kasey Hill was also in double figures with 10 points.

Thornwell was outstanding in defeat, tallying 23 points, 10 rebounds, three steals and two assists without a turnover. Notice added 16 points.

This is UF’s 10th appearance in the Elite Eight and the fifth in the last seven seasons. The Gators now own a 42-15 record in 18 NCAA Tourney appearances.

USC is ranked eighth in the nation in defending the 3-point line (29.9%), 14th in FG percentage defense (39.8%) and 30th in scoring defense (64.8 PPG).

Despite three consecutive covers, USC is still just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 contests.

The ‘under’ is 18-15-1 overall for the Gators, although a 3-0 ‘under’ streak was ended Friday vs. Wisconsin.

The ‘under’ is 18-13-1 overall for USC, going 4-2-1 in its last seven games.

The UF-USC winner will face Gonzaga in the national semifinals next Saturday.

South Regional Final
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

North Carolina Tar Heels (-2½) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (159½)

In a year when many surprising guests have invaded the Elite Eight, there’s nothing shocking about the schools that’ll square off Sunday in the South Region finals at FedEx Forum in Memphis. That would be North Carolina and Kentucky.

UK is in its 57th NCAA Tournament and is looking to make its 18th Final Four appearance. Meanwhile, UNC is in its 48th Tourney, hoping to go to its 20th Final Four.

As of late Saturday night, most books had North Carolina installed as a 2.5-point favorite with the total in the 159-160 range. The Wildcats were available on the money line for a +125 return (risk $100 to win $125).

These storied programs have only met three times in the NCAA Tournament, but all three of those encounters have come in this same situation – a region final. In 1977, the Tar Heels won a 79-72 decision. Then in 1995, UNC sent UK packing again on its way to another Final Four. But in 2011, the ‘Cats captured a 76-69 victory.

Kentucky (32-5 straight up, 19-17 against the spread) avenged a December home loss to UCLA by beating the Bruins 86-75 as a 1.5-point underdog. The 161 combined points fell ‘under’ the 167-point total. De’Aaron Fox exploded for a career-high 39 points, but it was the defense that was the difference against the nation’s top-scoring offense.

UCLA still shot at a 52.7 percent clip from the field, but the Bruins committed 13 turnovers compared to only six for the ‘Cats. Steve Alford’s team made only 8-of-13 attempts at the free-throw line.

Fox hit 13-of-20 shots from the field and 13-of-15 tries from the charity stripe. The freshman point guard who is expected to be a one-and-done lottery pick in the 2017 NBA Draft also had two steals, three rebounds and four assists compared to just one turnover.

Malik Monk went for 21 points, nailing 4-of-9 launches from 3-point range. Dominique Hawkins came off the bench to score 11 points, draining 3-of-4 from downtown, in only 17 minutes of playing time.

North Carolina (30-7 SU, 19-15 ATS) has been a single-digit favorite 16 times this year, cashing tickets at a 9-6-1 ATS clip. The Tar Heels advanced to the South Region finals thanks to Friday’s 92-80 win over Butler as seven-point ‘chalk.’ The 172 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 155-point total.

Roy Williams, who was coaching in the Sweet 16 for the 18th time in his career, saw his team race out to a 52-36 halftime lead. Luke Maye, a sophomore forward, already had a career-high 14 points at intermission. He would finish with his first double-double (16 points, 12 rebounds).

Unlike Arkansas, which battled back from a 17-point first-half deficit to put UNC on the ropes with a five-point lead at the three-minute mark last Sunday, Butler had no comeback in it Friday. Joel Berry II shook off his ankle woes to score a game-high 26 points. Justin Jackson added 24 points, five rebounds and five assists compared to merely one turnover.

John Calipari’s club has been an underdog twice this year, winning outright against UCLA on Friday and losing by 22 at Florida. Speaking of that loss at UF, UK hasn’t tasted defeat since then, winning 14 in a row.

This will be a rematch of a Dec. 17 matchup at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, where UK won by a 103-100 count as a one-point favorite. The 203 combined points soared ‘over’ the 171-point tally.

Monk went off for a career-high 47 points on amazing 8-of-12 shooting from 3-point land. Fox scored 24 points, grabbed four rebounds, made two steals and dished out 10 assists compared to two turnovers. Edrice Adebayo added 13 points and seven boards, but he was limited to 19 minutes of action before fouling out. Isaiah Briscoe was also in double figures with 10 points, seven boards and four assists with only one turnover.

Jackson scored 34 points to go with five rebounds and three assists without a turnover. Berry scored 23 points, dished out seven assists and grabbed five boards. However, Berry fouled out like Kennedy Meeks, who was only able to log 20 minutes of playing time. Meeks had 12 points and seven rebounds.

UK is ranked 10th in the nation in scoring, averaging 85.2 PPG. The ‘Cats are 15th in the country at defending the 3-point line, holding foes to 30.8 percent.

The ‘under’ is on an 11-2 run for UK to improve to 20-17 overall.

The ‘under’ is 20-14-1 overall for UNC, but the ‘over’ is 3-1 in its last four outings.

The winner will face Oregon in the national semifinals. The Ducks are in the Final Four for the first time since 1939.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Kentucky is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 head-to-head meetings against UNC.

Indiana hired Dayton’s Archie Miller as is its next head coach to replace Tom Crean after an up-and-down nine-year tenure. Crean was fired more than a week ago. Miller has enjoyed outstanding success with the Flyers after a stellar playing career at North Carolina St. Miller is the younger brother of Arizona head coach Sean Miller. This is a great hire for the Hoosiers, who haven’t won a national title since 1987.

With Miller out at Dayton, I would expect the school to go after a couple of big names. If those attempts fail, the Flyers can do a lot worse than going with Miller’s long-time assistant Tom Ostrom, who got his start at Florida during Billy Donovan’s iconic tenure. Ostrom went to Dayton after serving as John Pelphrey’s top assistant at Arkansas. He was critical in the recruitment of both Mike Miller and Joakim Noah.

How about that performance from Oregon last night? Damn! The Ducks took Kansas behind the woodshed in its own backyard, capturing a 74-60 victory as 6.5-point underdogs at Sprint Center in Kansas City. Tyler Dorsey’s remarkable play of late continued, as he dominated the game with 27 points on 9-of-13 shooting from the field, including 6 makes on 10 shots from long distance. Jordan Bell was incredible as well, producing 11 points, 13 rebounds, four assists and eight blocked shots.

The other region final Saturday saw Gonzaga advance to its first Final Four in program history. Mark Few’s team cruised to an 83-59 win over 11th-seeded Xavier, which was trying to become the third No. 11 seed to get to the national semifinals (VCU and LSU were the others). The ‘Zags easily took the money as 8.5-point ‘chalk.’ Nigel Williams-Goss stole the show with 23 points, eight rebounds, two steals and four assists without a turnover. Johnathan Williams added 19 points, eight boards and three rejections.

NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Betting Preview: South Carolina vs Florida
By Covers.com

South Carolina Gamecocks vs Florida Gators (-3, 134.5)

The third time really will be the charm for SEC rivals South Carolina and Florida, who split their regular-season series and meet in a rubber match Sunday afternoon in the NCAA Tournament East Region at Madison Square Garden with a spot in the Final Four on the line. To say the teams took different paths from the Sweet 16 to the Elite Eight would be an understatement.

Seventh-seeded South Carolina used an 18-0 first half run to back another strong defensive performance, forcing 16 turnovers while holding Baylor to 30.4 percent shooting to grind out a surprisingly lopsided 70-50 upset of the third-seeded Bears on Friday. "We've been doing it all season," senior guard Sindarius Thornwell, the SEC Player of the Year, said after scoring a game-high 24 points and grabbing six rebounds. "Now, y'all gave us the stage to do it, and we're just showcasing what we've been doing all season." Fourth-seeded Florida advanced with a dramatic 84-83 overtime victory over No. 8 seed Wisconsin, winning on junior guard Chris Chiozza's buzzer-beating 3-pointer five minutes after guard Zak Showalter capped a late 12-point Badgers comeback with a dramatic leaping, one-legged 3-pointer of his own to force overtime. "I don't know how it happened, I just know it went in,"Chiozza said. "Now, we have another game to play."

LINE HISTORY: The Gators opened up as 3.5-point chalk over the Gamecocks and by Saturday night that number was down half point to an even 3. The total hit the board at 134.5 and has yet to move off that number. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA: Despite garnering SEC Player of the Year honors, the 6-5, 211-pound Thornwell was still somewhat under the radar on a national level before the NCAA Tournament but made the most of the big stage, averaging 25.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals per game while also connecting on 10-of-22 3-pointers. "He's had an unbelievable year," Gamecocks coach Frank Martin said adding, "I'm happy he's getting the recognition he deserves." Sophomore guard PJ Dozier (13.7 per game this season), senior guard Duane Notice (10.3) and 6-9 sophomore forward Chris Silva (10.1) join Thornwell (21.4) in averaging double figures for the Gamecocks, who try to advance to the Final Four for the first time.

ABOUT FLORIDA (27-8 ): Chiozza, who finished with eight points, five assists and four rebounds, will be remembered for his dramatic game-winner but it was the play of sophomore guard KeVaughn Allen that carried the Gators for most of the game. Allen, who leads the team in scoring (14.1), finished with 35 points against Wisconsin, a school record for an NCAA Tournament game. Senior guard Canyon Barry (11.6), son of NBA Hall of Famer Rick Barry, and junior forward Devin Robinson (11.3) also average in double-digits for the Gators, who managed to adjust after losing top rebounder John Egbunu (7.8 points, 6.6 boards) to a torn left ACL in a Feb. 14 victory at Auburn.

TRENDS:

* Gamecocks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. Southeastern.
* Gators are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite.
* Under is 10-2 in Gamecocks last 12 neutral site games as an underdog.
* Under is 4-1 in Gators last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of picks of are siding with the underdog Gamecocks, while Under is picking up 54 percent of the totals wagers.

NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Betting Preview: Kentucky vs North Carolina
By Covers.com

Kentucky Wildcats vs North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5, 158 )

Two of the most successful programs in college basketball history meet Sunday in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight at FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tenn., and the South Region game between top-seeded North Carolina and No. 2 seed Kentucky also serves as a rematch of one of the best games this season. The Wildcats beat North Carolina 103-100 on Dec. 17 in a one-day showcase in Las Vegas as Malik Monk scored 47 points, a freshman record at Kentucky, hitting the go-ahead 3-pointer with 16.7 seconds left.

Both teams faced challenging roads to this point - especially Kentucky, which beat third-seeded UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen 86-75 on Friday night, getting 39 points from freshman guard De'Aaron Fox and some redemption after the Bruins went to Kentucky and beat the top-ranked Wildcats earlier this season. Kentucky also won games by single digits over Northern Kentucky and Wichita State in the first two rounds of the tournament, so the Wildcats should be prepared for a close battle against North Carolina. The Tar Heels beat fourth-seeded Butler 92-80 in the Sweet Sixteen and their two leading scorers, Justin Jackson and Joel Berry II, came through with big games, scoring 24 and 26 points, respectively. Kentucky is well aware of the duo as Jackson, a 6-8 junior forward, scored a career-high 34 points against the Wildcats in December, and Berry, a 6-foot junior guard, scored 23.

LINE HISTORY: The Tar Heels opened as 2.5-point chalk over the Wildcats and that line has held firm in the first few hours. As for the total, it hit the betting board at 158 and like the spread hasn’t moved off the opening number. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT KENTUCKY: The Tar Heels start four forwards that measure 6-6, 6-8, 6-9 and 6-10, so the Wildcats need to counter that with their superior guard play. Kentucky still needs strong performances in the middle from 6-10 freshman forward Bam Adebayo and 6-9 senior forward Derek Willis, their only two starters down low. They didn't hold up well against UCLA's size, combining for 10 points and 12 rebounds, and the Wildcats didn't receive any help up front off the bench.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA: Like many of the high school All-Americans who sign with North Carolina, Kennedy Meeks wasn't expected to stick around for four years, but the senior forward made the decision to keep coming back and might be the biggest difference-maker in this game. Meeks is not only 6-10, but weighs 260 pounds and should be able muscle his way loose down low against the Wildcats. He played only 20 minutes before fouling out in the earlier meeting against Kentucky, but still scored 12 points and grabbed seven rebounds, numbers that figure to improve if he can stay on the court.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
* Under is 7-0 in Wildcats last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Under is 13-3 in Wildcats last 16 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 6-1 in Tar Heels last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of are taking the chalk with the Tar Heels and the Over is picking up 70 percent of the totals wagers.