NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, March 5th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Northwestern won its last game at buzzer over Michigan; pundits have them in NCAA’s; they’re 4-3 in last seven games, 5-3 SU at home. Purdue won seven of last eight games, is 5-3 on big 14 road, 2-5 vs spread as a road favorite, with wins by 1-11-1-5-4 points. Purdue made 12-23 on arc, pounded Northwestern 80-59 at home Feb 1, game that was 45-23 at the half. Boilers won last three series games by 8-10-21 points, but they’re just 4-3 in last seven games vs Wildcats, losing two of last three games in Evanston.
Wisconsin lost five of its last six games, is 6-2 at home in league, 4-4 as a home favorite, with wins by 20-23-4-27-5-11 points- they lost at home to Iowa/Northwestern. Badgers won 78-76 in OT at Minnesota Jan 21; both teams hit 50%+ from arc. Wisconsin won last six series games; they won last five series games played here, by 8-7-1-8-10 points. Minnesota won its last eight games (7-1 vs spread); they’re 5-3 on Big 14 road, 4-3 as a road underdog- their road losses are by 18 at Michigan State, 2 at Penn State, 6 at Ohio State.
MVC final, St Louis
Last seven years, Wichita State is 110-16 in Missouri Valley regular season games, but they only won Arch Madness once, three years ago. Shockers split pair with Illinois State this year, losing by 14 in Normal Jan 14, then avenging that loss 86-45 three weeks later, when McIntosh was out of lineup for ISU. Redbirds are 3-2 in last five games vs Wichita; they upset Shockers in semis here two years ago. Both teams had fairly easy wins yesterday; only two Shockers played more than 26:00. Illinois State didn’t anyone more than 24:00 yesterday, or 29:00 Friday.
CAA semifinals, Charleston
NC-Wilmington is 41-13 in CAA regular season games under Keatts; they won this tourney LY. UNCW won their last five games, all by nine or less points. Wm & Mary has never played in NCAA’s; since 2008, they’re 4-2 in their second tournament game, losing by 3 to Hofstra in this round LY. Tribe split pair with NC-Wilmington this year, losing 101-77 in Wilmington (-10 in turnovers), then upsetting Seahawks 96-78 in rematch, when they turned ball over only 8 times. W&M played three starters 33:00+ in tight 71-66 win over Elon yesterday.
Home side won both Charleston-Towson games this year; Cougars won by 5, then lost rematch by 6 in OT (Towson was 23-33 on line that night, 7-16 in first meeting). Cougars lost in this round of CAA tourney last three years, by 11-25-2 points- they used three guys 33:00+ in 67-62 win over JMU last nite, tough game. Tigers pounded Northeastern last nite, had stress-free game; 2009 was last time they won two games in same CAA tournament. Towson is 5-3 vs Charleston in CAA meetings. This tourney is in North Charleston, not in Cougars’ arena.
Horizon tournament. Detroit
Northern Kentucky beat Wright State twice this year, by 4-7 points; Norse won seven of last eight games overall. Wright State won five of its last seven games. Raiders lost Horizon tourney final three of last four years, which is why they fired the coach LY after a 22-13 season. New coach Nagy won three of last five Summit tourneys at South Dakota State. Raiders are 7-4 in this event the last four years. NKU is 0-2 in conference tourney games, losing by 17 to Milwaukee LY in first Horizon tourney- they lost to Lipscomb in A-Sun the year before.
Green Bay swept Ill-Chicago this year, winning by 4-8 points; UIC led first game by 10 with 9:36 left, led rematch by 7 at the half. Green Bay outscored Flames 22-7 on foul line in their home win. Phoenix won last ten series games overall; they also won this Horizon tourney LY, after going 11-7 in regular season. Flames lost last four games, allowing average of 87.7 pts/game; UIC is 3-7 in this tourney last seven years- this was their best regular season (7-11) in last four years. Green Bay split its last six games, with three wins by 24-8-8 points.
MAAC tournament, Albany
St Peter’s won its last seven games, allowing 60+ points only once; they start three seniors, two juniors. Iona swept Peacocks this season, winning by 14-3(ot) points, still finished behind St Peter’s in MAAC standings. Gaels made 23-47 on arc in two wins over St Peter’s; they’re 11-2 in this tourney the last five years, winning 2+ games the last four years. Iona split its last eight games overall; they used three starters 31:00+ in last night’s fairly easy win over Rider. Peacocks didn’t play last night; since ’06, they’re 3-1 in second tourney game.
Monmouth won its last 17 games, but unless they win this tourney, they’re NIT-bound. Hawks swept Siena this year, winning 102-82 on this floor Feb 13 (made 13-24 on arc), then nipping Saints 77-73 at home in rematch nine days ago (7-22 on arc). Monmouth is 48-12 in regular season last three years, but only 4-2 in this event- they won NEC tourneys in ’04, ’06. Siena starts four seniors who all scored 1,000+ points; Saints won six of last eight games, the last five times they won their first tourney game, they lost second one, by 30-10-12-3-11 points.
Southern Conference semis, Asheville, NC
Wofford won five of last seven games with NC-Greensboro; Terriers won 93-74 in first meeting this year (were 11-25 on arc), then lost rematch 74-55 (7-22 on arc). Wofford won this tourney two of last three years; last four times they won first tourney game, they also won second game. Since ’06, NC-Greensboro is 1-6 in second tourney game; Spartans won last eight games overall; they used three starters 31:00+ yesterday. Wofford used four starters 32:00+ in their win over injury-riddled Chattanooga. Terriers split their last six games overall.
East Tennessee State beat Samford twice this year, in double OT on road Jan 25 (blew 14-point lead in 2nd half), then by hoop at home three weeks later (trailed by 7 with 4:36 left). Bucs won five of six SoCon meetings with Samford; all five wins were by 4 or less points or in OT. ETSU won seven of its last eight games overall; they used only two guys more than 27:00 in win over Mercer last nite. Samford is playing for third nite in row after going 2-6 at end of regular season. Bulldogs played three starters 31:00+ last night- they were just 19-32 on line in 67-63 win.
Summit League tournament, Sioux Falls
Denver lost its last three games, allowing 85 pts/game; they beat South Dakota State 91-82 at home in first meeting (SDS was 15-26 on arc and lost), then lost 86-64 in Brookings eight days ago, when Jackrabbits went 14-28 on line. State won six of last eight games to finish 8-8 in Summit; they won this tourney three of last five years (12-2) but have new coach this season. Denver is 2-3 in Summit tourney games since joining league; Pioneers are 2-7 vs Jackrabbits in Summit games- they lost 54-53 to them here LY. This is basically a Jackrabbit home game.
Fort Wayne went 5-7 in its last 12 games after starting season 14-4 with win over Indiana; Mastodons are 3-1 in first Summit tourney game the last four years- they beat Omaha twice this year, 80-78 on road in first meeting (trailed by 11 with 14:36 left), then 108-101 in OT in rematch at home (trailed by 9 with 8:23 left). There were 81 3’s taken in second meeting; FW was 16-42. Omaha is 1-2 in its first two Summit tourneys; Mavericks won their last three games overall, by total of 12 points. Fort Wayne is 9-2 overall vs Omaha in Summit League meetings.
Armadillosports.com
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Note
Sportspic.com
Minnesota at Wisconsin
The slumping Badgers nipped 59-57 at home by Iowa on Thursday have lost three straight (0-3 ATS) and five of six (1-5 ATS). Now Wisconsin finishes its regular-season slate with a home game against a red-hot Minnesota team reeling off eight consecutive victories (7-1 ATS).
Fans can take comfort Badgers should right themselves having won 16-of-17 meetings vs Golden Gophers in Madison. However, backers may be scared off knowing Badgers are on a money-burning 3-10 skid vs the betting line, 2-4 ATS slump in front of the home audience, 2-8 ATS slide hosting their conference rival.
Sunday's Big 10 Tips
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The final Sunday of the regular season in men’s college basketball features a number of great matchups, especially in the Big Ten where teams continue to jockey for position ahead of next week’s conference tournament.
Kicking off the action, the No. 16 Purdue Boilermakers will close things out against Northwestern after previously clinching the Big Ten regular season title. Later in the day, Minnesota will go on the road to square off against No. 22 Wisconsin and Sunday night’s featured matchup pits Michigan against the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
No. 16 Purdue Boilermakers at Northwestern Wildcats
Opening Odds: Purdue -3½, Total 139
Betting Matchup
Purdue forged its way to the top of the Big Ten standings with a straight-up 7-1 run in its last eight games while going 4-2-2 against the spread during this same span. The total went OVER 150 points in this past Tuesday’s 86-75 victory against Indiana as an 11-point home favorite and it has gone OVER in three of its last four games. Sophomore forward Caleb Swanigan led the way against the Hoosiers with 21 points and he remains the Boilermakers’ (24-6 SU, 16-9-2 ATS) top scorer this season with 18.6 points per game.
The Wildcats need a win on Sunday and some help to move into one of the top four spots in the conference standings after stumbling down the stretch with a SU 3-5 record in their last eight games. They did cover as two-point home underdogs in Wednesday’s 67-65 victory against Michigan (21-9 SU) to improve to 18-10 ATS this season. Northwestern is averaging 71.6 PPG; however it has failed to score more than 70 points in its last nine contests. It is ranked 32nd in the nation at the other end of the court with a points-allowed average of 64.7 points.
Betting Trends
The Boilermakers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games and the total has gone OVER in six of their last eight games played on a Sunday.
The Wildcats have gone 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win and the total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight home games.
Head-to-head in this conference tilt, Purdue has won four of the last six meetings SU including an 80-59 rout on Feb. 1 as a 9 ½-point home favorite. The total stayed UNDER 140 ½ points in that game and it has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at No. 22 Wisconsin Badgers
Opening Odds: Wisconsin -6½, Total 132½
Betting Matchup
Minnesota comes into this matchup tied with the Badgers for second place in the conference standings at 11-6 SU, but it lost the first meeting this season in overtime 78-76 on Jan. 21 as a 4 ½-point home underdog. The Golden Gophers (23-7 SU, 18-10 ATS) are closing things out on a strong note with an eight-game winning streak while going 7-1 ATS. The total has gone OVER in their last seven games. In Thursday’s 88-73 romp against Nebraska as a 7 ½-point home favorite, Minnesota’s leading scorer Nate Mason scored a game-high 25 points. The junior guard is averaging 15.4 PPG this season.
The Badgers have just one SU win in their last six games and they are a costly 1-7 ATS in their last eight outings. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a push in four of their last six games. Wisconsin is now 22-8 SU on the year with a 12-15 record ATS. It comes into this season finale with an 8-5 record ATS on its home court. Wisconsin remains one of the top teams in the nation on defense with a points-allowed average of 62.0, but it has given up more than this in five of its last seven games including 83 points in a recent loss to Ohio State and 84 points in a 10-point setback against Michigan State last Sunday.
Betting Trends
The Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a SU winning record and the total has gone OVER in their last seven games following a SU win.
The Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Sunday games and the total has gone OVER in five of their last six games against a team with a SU winning record.
The road team in this Big Ten clash has gone 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the total has gone OVER in five of the last seven games between the two including the first meeting this season.
Michigan Wolverines at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Opening Odds Michigan -4½, Total 139
Betting Matchup
Michigan’s recent loss to Northwestern dropped its record to 1-3 ATS in its last four games as part of an overall record of 11-16 ATS. The loss dropped the Wolverines (19-11) to 9-8 SU in conference play and the total has gone OVER in five of their last seven games. Senior guard Derrick Walton Jr. has led the team in both points (14.4) and assists (4.1) this season. His 15 points in Wednesday’s loss was eighth time in his last 10 games that he eclipsed his scoring average. As a team, the Wolverines are averaging 74.0 PPG.
With just two SU victories in the Cornhuskers’ last eight games, they are well down the list in the Big Ten at 6-11 and 12-17 SU on the year. They have failed to cover in five of those eight games and the total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in five of their last seven outings. Nebraska’s top scorer this season has been senior guard Tai Webster with 17.5 PPG and he also leads the team in assists (4.0). He was held to 11 points in Thursday’s loss to Minnesota after going just 4-for13 from the field.
Betting Trends
The Wolverines are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and the total has stayed UNDER in 11 of their last 16 games on the road.
The Cornhuskers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a SU losing record on the road. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six games following a SU loss.
Michigan won the first meeting this season 91-85 on Jan. 14 as an eight-point home favorite to extend its SU winning streak against Nebraska to seven games. It is 4-3 ATS in this series and the total has gone OVER in three of the last five meetings.