NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, November 20th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Stanford won its first three games under new coach Haase by 10-27-18 points, allowing 62.7 pts/game- teams are shooting 21.3% on arc against them. Cardinal has 4 starters back from LY’s 15-15 team. Colorado State beat New Mexico State by 3 in its only D-I game so far; Rams outscored Aggies 25-11 on line, were just 1-14 on arc. Pac-12 home favorites are 11-5 vs spread so far this month. Mountain West road underdogs are 9-8 vs spread, 2-3 as underdogs.
UCLA beat Long Beach State by 7-14 points last two years; Bruins won first three games this year, by 39-15-20 points, scoring 103 pts/game. UCLA is playing #13 pace in country, has made 41.2% on arc. Long Beach has been on road, getting guarantee checks while losing games by 37-26-32 points to Wichita-UNC-Louisville; they’re in over their heads. Pac-12 home favorites are 11-5 vs spread so far this month. Big West road underdogs are 1-10 against the spread.
East Tennessee State won its first two home games by 37-29 points; their whole team except for one kid is juniors/seniors (mostly JC kids). Bucs made 45.5% on arc in first two games- they turned ball over 21 times in 94-73 home loss to NC-Wilmington LY. Seahawks won by 9 in OT at Eastern Kentucky in their first D-I game this month, blowing a 17-point first half lead. SoCon road underdogs are 7-5 vs spread. CAA home favorites are 1-4 this month.
Iona was 9-31 on arc in 99-78 loss at Florida State Tuesday; they put Seminoles on line 40 times in their only game so far this month. Gaels lost 3 starters from a 22-11 team but have a couple transfers stepping in. Nevada won its first two home games by 15-25 over LMU/Oregon State after a loss at St Mary’s; Wolf Pack was up 23 at half on the Beavers last game. MAAC road underdogs are 6-7 vs spread. Mountain West home favorites are 7-5 against spread.
Hall of Fame tip-off
Duke beat Penn State by 10 yesterday; they used five guys 35+ minutes- they’ve got four subs out hurt- the other three kids who played Saturday played total of 16:00. Rhode Island beat Cincinnati by 5, losing G Garrett to a head injury. Rams are 4-0, beating three stiffs before the Cincy game- they’ve made 40.3% of their 3’s. URI played three kids 33+ minutes, used five other 13:00+. A-14 underdogs are 4-4 vs spread. ACC favorites are 15-8.
Paradise Jam, Virgin Islands
Ole Miss is 3-0 despite allowing 86.3 pts/game- their wins are all by 3 or less points or in OT. Rebels are turning ball over 23% of time, but grabbing 42% of their own missed shots.- they were down 5 with 1:14 left vs ORU Friday, rallied to win in OT, making 12-26 on arc. St Joe’s won its first three games, by 1-20-14 points; they’re forcing turnovers 23.7% of time. One of Ole Miss wins was by hoop over UMass, an A-14 rival of the Hawks. This is jump up in competition for both teams. SEC teams are 11-18 vs spread. Atlantic 14 teams are 12-17 vs spread.
NC State scored 84 pts/game in its 3-0 start, wins by 2-25-13 points; Wolfpack only played seven guys Friday (one only 7:00) as they wait for injured/ineligible players to return. State made only 20% of its 3’s so far this month. Creighton scored 90.3 pts/game in its 3-0 start, which includes a win over Wisconsin. Bluejays are playing #36 pace in country; they’ve made 48.4% of their 3’s so far. Big East teams are 12-8 vs spread this month; ACC teams are 16-12.
Charleston tournament
Howland-Floyd is an old USC-UCLA coaching matchup. Mississippi State has protected ball well in its 2-1 start- they lost by 25 to UCF Thursday, then beat Boise State by 12 Friday- they are starting two freshmen, two sophs, figure to improve a lot by New Year’s- they’re 2nd-youngest team in country. UTEP lost by 22 to Wake Forest Thursday, then beat WMU by 10 Friday; Miners start 3 juniors and a senior- they’re making 39.4% from arc this month.
Host Charleston was held to 40 points Friday in loss to UCF; Cougars are 3-1, allowing 59.8 pts/game- but are shooting 26.4% on arc themselves. Charleston is playing 5th-slowest pace in country so far. Wake Forest won its first three games by 21-20-22 points before Villanova beat them by by 19 Friday. Deacons are making 45.3% on arc- they’re still very young team. CAA teams are 9-10 vs spread so far this year. ACC teams are 16-12 against the spread.
Central Florida won its first three games by 24-25-20 points, allowing 52.3 pts/game; Knights have a 7-6 center who has 11 blocked shots already. Teams are shooting 33.9% inside arc vs UCF, #4 in country- they’ve made only 21.6% on arc (#17). Villanova is huge step up in class for UCF; defending national champs are 4-0, scoring 84.8 pts/game. Wildcats are shooting 42% on arc, 60.7% inside arc, curious to see if UCF can come close to slowing them down.
Tire Pros tourney, Orlando
Davidson is off to 2-1 start, with all three games decided by 12+ points; they lost to Clemson because Tigers were too athletic for them. Star guard Gibbs was also rusty vs Clemson (his 1st game of year), looked much better vs Mizzou. Davidson has players from 7 different countries; chemistry might take little longer to gel. Arizona State beat Tulane by 9 after losing badly to Northern Iowa Thursday; Holder only had 8 points Friday- they need more out of him than that.
Clemson ran Davidson off floor Thursday, then lost by 6 to Xavier when they really only played six guys (7th guy played 5:00). Tigers are #17 experience team in country; they protect ball well, but Xavier matched them athletically. Oklahoma will too, but Sooners are #324 experience team. Sooners lost a 16-point lead and lost in OT to Northern Iowa Friday, after they beat an overmatched Tulane by 19. Oklahoma is turning ball over 22.5% of time, which could help Clemson run.
Northern Iowa is smart, tough and shoots well; they made 25-61 on arc in first two games of this tourney. Panthers know games like this will be bigger for them on Selection Sunday than Xavier, which plays in a better league. UNI/Xavier both start 3 juniors, one senior. Xavier won its first four games, beating Clemson by 6 Friday after surviving Mizzou in OT Thursday. Musketeers are scoring 84 pts/game this month, but UNI plays #340 pace- tough to get 84 that way.
Oddity: Northern Iowa-Xavier play each other again next Saturday in Cincinnati.
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