NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, December 8th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
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Pacific blew 20-point lead with 12:00 left at Fullerton Saturday, losing 78-77; Tigers are 3-0 at home, 0-4 on road, with losses by 39-7-1-10 points- three of those games were in California, the other in Reno- this is at UMass, long way from home. Minutemen are 1-2 vs top 200 teams, with losses by total of five points; they’re turning ball 21.8% of time, shooting just 28.4% on arc. UMass is forcing turnovers 23.8% of time, has #40 eFG% defense. WCC road underdogs are 7-7 vs spread; A-14 home favorites are 12-24.
St John’s is 4-5, 0-4 vs top 200 teams; their best win is over #223 Northridge; Red Storm lost 73-57 to Fordham LY, snapping 4-game series win streak. Mullin has yet to turn program around; St John’s is #349 experience team; they’re shooting 40.3% on arc but only 43.9% inside it. Fordham is 4-4 vs D-I teams; their best win is over #193 St Peter’s; they lost last three games by 4-1-12 points. Rams are forcing turnovers 29.6% of time, #2 in country. Big East home favorites are 14-9 vs spread; A-14 road underdogs are 9-6.
Vanderbilt is 5-4 this season, 1-3 on neutral court; this is their first true road game. Vandy is shooting 42.7% on arc, only 45.7% inside it and they’re turning ball over 20.8% of time- they’re 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 24-10-4 points. Middle Tennessee is 9-1, beating UNCW by 5 in its only top 100 game; Blue Raiders are forcing turnovers 22.9% of time (#37)- they won by 15 at Ole Miss of SEC last Wednesday. SEC underdogs are 11-13 vs spread, 2-4 on road. C-USA home favorites are 9-9.
Iowa State beat Iowa last three years by 3-1-15 points; home side won 10 of last 12 series games, with Cyclones winning two of last three visits here. State just beat Omaha by 44, after Mavericks had upset Iowa 98-89 in Iowa City. Cyclones are #5 experience team; this is their first true road game of season- they’re 1-2 vs top 100 teams, with home loss in OT to Cincinnati. Iowa is #341 experience team; they’re 4-5, with best win over #286 Stetson. Big X favorites are 10-8 away from home; Big 14 underdogs are 18-12, 2-2 at home.
Tex-Arlington will be a popular underdog in March; they’re 7-3, with win at Texas, losses by 4 at Arkansas, 17 at Minnesota- they’ve won last four D-I games, but St Mary’s is best team they’ve played. Gaels are 6-0 vs schedule #91; four of their six opponents are top 100 teams- they have wins at Dayton/Stanford. St Mary’s is playing 2nd-slowest tempo in country; they’re shooting 64.1% inside arc, #1 in country. Arlington is turning ball over 23.2% of time, but St Mary’s doesn’t force lot of turnovers. WCC home favorites are 16-11 vs spread; Sun Belt road underdogs are 15-15.
Loyola Marymount is 1-3 vs D-I teams, but they lost to UConn/Boise State by total of 4 points, so there is a pulse there; Lions are #18 experience team whose only D-I win was by 16 over Portland State, a Big Sky rival of Southern Utah. SUU is 0-6 vs D-I teams, 0-3 in true road games, losing by 14-12-10 points, so they have some talent; their closest loss was 89-81 at home to UNLV. Thunderbirds are shooting only 39.4% inside arc. WCC home favorites are 16-11 vs spread; Big Sky road underdogs are 18-23.
Armadillosports.com
Iowa State faces rival Iowa on Thursday
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com
The 70th meeting in the Cy-Hawk rivalry features #25 Iowa State looking to sustain their recent dominance in this in-state battle against a rebuilding Iowa team.
The Cyclones and Hawkeyes seem to be headed in different directions this season. In a matchup of teams that have recently been offensive juggernauts (the OVER is 8-0 in this meeting since 2008), Iowa State’s best defensive team in recent memory has them in the top 25, while Iowa’s lack of defense has them sputtering under .500 on the season. One only needs to look no further than Iowa and Iowa State’s most recent common opponent to see the difference in the two squads this season: Iowa dropped a 98-89 home decision (Iowa -11) to Nebraska-Omaha on Saturday, their fourth straight defeat at the time. Coach Fran McCaffery’s Hawkeyes got outrebounded by eight and allowed their fourth straight opponent to shoot better than 47% FG. Just two days later, Coach Steve Prohm’s Cyclones suffocated that same Nebraska-Omaha unit (91-47, ISU -18.5), holding them to 28.4% FG on Monday evening. Iowa was able to garner a confidence-building home victory, halting their losing streak on Monday night against Stetson (95-68, Iowa -20), playing arguably their best defensive game of the season. A win over arch-rival Iowa State to stop the bleeding on the Hawkeye side in this series (Iowa is 1-6 since 2009) would be a season-galvanizing victory, but will also be a very tall task. Iowa State has won two of the past three in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The last time this game was in Iowa City, Iowa State embarrassed home favorite, Iowa (90-75, Iowa -5.5) The Hawkeyes are 4-3 ATS in that seven game span. As mentioned previously, the total has been OVER in the past eight games in this rivalry with no individual team scoring less than 70 in the last seven. That said, the UNDER is 5-1 this season in games involving Iowa State. The two teams will have a tough time duplicating last season’s thriller, an 83-82 Cylcone win (ISU -8 ). The then #4 and undefeated Cyclones were facing a 20-point second-half deficit against the unranked and visiting Hawkeyes, but star G Monte Morris hit a game-winning floater with nine seconds left to cap the comeback. Iowa will be without the services of one of their better players, freshman F Tyler Cook (13.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG) for a fourth straight game due to a finger injury. The Hawkeyes have allowed 45 rebounds per game in the three games without Cook.
After pulling a proverbial rabbit out of a hat to defeat their hated in-state rivals last season, Iowa State will have the utmost confidence traveling into Iowa City for Thursday night’s game. If last season taught the Cyclones anything, it’s that they can never take this rivalry game for granted, but they’re clearly in Iowa’s head after winning six of their last seven. They hold a decided experience advantage as seniors Matt Thomas (11.5 PPG), Naz Mitrou-Long (12.8 PPG) and the aforementioned Morris (14.8 PPG, 6.3 APG) each have three games of this rivalry under their belts. Morris and Thomas combined for 39 points last season, with Thomas nailing six threes. Mitrou-Long (then Naz Long) stepped up the last time this game was in Iowa City with a game-high 21 points in 2014. Morris chipped in with 14 points, five rebounds and six assists. Iowa State can still score (84.8 PPG, 20th NCAA), but their defense (61.4 PPG allowed, 23rd NCAA) is what’s turning heads this season. Gone is shot-blocker extraordinaire Jameel McKay, but the Cyclones do have an infusion of lunch-pail role players like senior transfers F Darrell Bowie (8.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and F Merrill Holden (5 PPG, 1 BPG) that focus on one end of the floor and don’t need the ball on the offensive end. F Deonte Burton (14.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG) may not be the leader of this team (that’s unquestionably Morris) but as Burton goes, Iowa State goes. An engaged Burton (29 points) had them within a basket of taking down unbeaten Gonzaga. A bad-shot taking Burton (4-13, 0 free throw attempts) had them struggling to put points on the board and eventually losing to Cincinnati at home. Burton needs to attack the basket with his athletic, 6’5”, 250 lb frame and not settle for contested jumpers. When he gets a step towards the left-handed side of the hoop, defenders have no chance against the strong southpaw on the drive. Morris and company should conceivably have a field day against Iowa’s 320th ranked defense, but the intensity of a pro-Iowa crowd in a rivalry game could keep this one closer than the numbers suggest.
Gone is F Jarrod Uthoff, he of the magical 30-point first half last season in Hilton Coliseum. Uthoff was held to only two points in the second half and the rest, as they say, is history. Also gone from last season’s Hawkeyes were four-year stalwarts, Anthony Clemmons, Mike Gesell and big Adam Woodbury. Clemmons and Uthoff were two of the better defenders in the Big Ten and losing them has been apparent in Iowa’s matador defense thus far. Iowa can still score (86.7 PPG, 13th NCAA), as Coach McCaffery has always shown the ability to get his Hawkeyes to be one of the better scoring teams in the conference. The Hawkeyes are led by the lone man left from their starting five last season, G Peter Jok (23.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 48% FG, 92% FT) a senior who’s bided his time for the offensive spotlight and embraced his #1 role (5th in the NCAA in scoring). The 6’6” Jok has a quick release and the length to get his shot off against almost any defender. He can get hot in a hurry (42 points, 8-of-11 3PT vs. Memphis). Jok has had success as a tertiary option against Iowa State in the past (18 points last season, 14 points as a sophomore off the bench), but how will he fare as a marked man against Iowa State’s stellar defense? The upward arc of two freshmen for Iowa has been an emerging storyline as G Jordan Bohannon (8.4 PPG, 4.8 APG) and F Cordell Pemsl (10.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG) have shown the offense to not just be “Jok and a bunch of also-rans”. The 6’8” 240 lb Pemsl was inserted into Cook’s vacated spot after his finger injury and has flourished, shooting a remarkable 82% FG (23-for-28) and averaging 19.0 PPG in his three starts. Bohannon -- the youngest brother of three former division 1 basketball-playing Bohannons – was inserted into the lineup with Pemsl and immediately had the hot hand going for 20+ points in his first two starts (13 threes).