NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, February 16th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Texas A&M won four of last six games, is 2-4 on SEC road, 2-2 as a road underdog, with wins by 4 at Ole Miss, 12 at LSU- they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight games. Vanderbilt is 3-5 in last eight games, losing by 20 at Mizzou last game. Commodores lost their last four home games, are 1-3 as a home favorite. Vandy never trailed in a 68-54 win at Texas A&M Jan 31, Vandy’s 5th win in seven SEC games with A&M. Aggies lost last three visits here, by 7-3-17 points. SEC home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-14 vs spread this season.
Michigan is 5-2 at home in Big 14, covering three of last four; they covered five of last seven games overall. Wisconsin won last four road games; three of them were in OT; their only road loss was at Purdue. Wisconsin beat Michigan 68-64 at home Jan 17; they trailed by 8 with 12:13 left, survived going 14-24 on foul line, while Wolverines were 10-21 on arc. Badgers won last five series games, winning by 13-5 points in last two visits to Ann Arbor. Big 14 road favorites of 3 or less points are 4-7 against the spread.
NC-Wilmington lost three of last five games after starting out 9-0 in CAA; Seahawks are 4-3 as CAA road favorites, with wins by 9-18-10-6-11 points- they lost last two road games. UNCW won four of last six games with Northeastern, winning by 7-17 points in last two visits here. Huskies lost seven of last nine games; they’re 5-2 at home in CAA, with only losses to Elon by 2, by 10 to Hofstra. Northeastern shoots only 61.6% on foul line, worst in conference. CAA road favorites of 5 or less points are 6-8 against the spread.
UAB lost three of last four games; they’re 3-4 on C-USA road (1-6 vs spread), losing last three away games by 9-4-15 points. Marshall lost three of last four games but is 4-1 at home, 4-1 as a home favorite, with only home loss to Texas-El Paso. UAB is 5-0 vs Marshall in C-USA games, winning by 6-3 points in last two visits to Huntington; Blazers beat Marshall 94-78 in first meeting, scoring 60 points in second half (was 34-31 at the half)- they trailed by hoop with 14:25 left. C-USA home favorite of 5 or less points are 13-9-1 vs spread.
Utah is 3-3 on Pac-12 road, losing last two road games (@ Cal/Stanford) by total of eight points. Utes are 1-0-1 as road underdogs. Oregon is 11-2 in Pac-12, 12-1 vs spread, 4-1 as a home favorite, with home wins by 2-23-42-23-17-1-27 points. Oregon won 73-67 at Utah Jan 26, Ducks’ 8th straight series win; Utes lost last four visits to Eugene, by 46-9-11-10 points. Oregon also beat Utah in last two Pac-12 tourneys. Eight of Ducks’ last ten wins were by 11+ points. Double digit home favorites are 9-16 vs spread in Pac-12 this season.
Middle Tennessee is 12-1 in C-USA but is 2-4 vs spread in last six games, 2-4 as road favorite. Blue Raiders’ last 10 wins are all by 10+ points. Western Kentucky won three of last five games, is 3-2 at home in C-USA, with loss by 12 to Old Dominion, by 5 to Marshall. MTSU shot 69% on arc, led by 19 in first half in 91-76 win over WKU Jan 14; WKU shot 68% inside arc. Blue Raiders are 3-1 in C-USA series games, winning by a hoop in last visit here, LY. C-USA road favorites of 8+ points are 4-6 against the spread.
UConn won five of last six games overall; they’ve won last five home games, are 3-2 as a home favorite, with wins by 15-14-7-10-46 points in the Nutmeg State. Memphis is 3-3 on AAC road, 1-2 as a road underdog with losses by 10-11-15 points on foreign soil, at Tulsa, Temple and UCF. Memphis beat UConn 70-61 at home Jan 5, in brickfest where teams shot combined 9-36 on arc. Huskies are 6-3 vs Memphis in AAC games; series has been swept last three years. AAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 6-2 vs spread.
Cal-Davis won three in row, six of last seven games; they’re 3-2 on Big West road- underdogs covered all five of those games. Aggies are 2-0 as a road underdog. Long Beach State won its last three home games; they’re 1-3 as a home favorite, winning home games by 6-5-11-9 points with a loss to Northridge. 49ers are 13-2 in last 15 games with Cal-Davis, sweeping Aggies by 12-9 points LY, after Davis swept 49ers in 2015. Aggies lost six of last seven games in the Pyramid. Big West home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-6 vs spread.
Pepperdine won its last three games after losing 16 of previous 18 games; Waves are 4-3 as a WCC road underdog, losing away games by 30-13-5-29-20-21 points- they won at San Diego in last road game. Santa Clara is 2-2 as a home favorite; they’re 4-2 overall at home, with WCC home wins by 1-8-14-28 points. Santa Clara made 14-29 on arc in 75-61 win at Pepperdine Jan 14; Broncos are 6-3 in last nine series games, winning last two meetings here by total of five points. Double digit home favorites are 10-7 vs spread in WCC games this season.
Manhattan lost four of last five games, is 2-4 as a MAAC road underdog, losing away games by 14-2-9-11-14-29 points, with lone road win at Niagara. Siena split its last eight games but lost its last three home games; they are 1-5 vs spread as home favorites, with home wins by 7-2-7-10 points. Siena won 81-68 at Manhattan in first meeting Jan 22, Saints’ third win in last four series tilts. Jaspers are 1-10 in last 11 visits to Albany, losing by 13-35 points in games with Siena here LY. Double digit home favorites are 5-6-1 vs spread in MAAC games this season.
Oral Roberts lost five of last six games, is 1-4 as a road underdog, with losses by 4-11-15-10-7 points on foreign soil, with only road win at IUPUI. Omaha lost four of last six games, is 2-2 as a home favorite, with wins by 14-9-8 points- they’re 3-3SU at home. Omaha lost 103-86 at Oral Roberts Jan 21; ORU had three guys score 24+ points, while Hollins had 33 points, 9 assists for Omaha. Mavericks are 2-3 vs ORU in Summit games, splitting pair of games here. Summit home favorites of 6 or less points are 16-13 vs spread this season.
Morehead State won four games in row and seven of last eight; they’re 4-2 on OVC road, 3-1 as a road underdog, with losses by 4 at UT-Martin, 3 at Tennessee Tech. Tennessee State split its last six games, but lost its last four at home. Tigers are 1-4 vs spread as a home favorite, with wins by 3-11 points. Morehead made 10-23 on arc in 87-85 home win over TSU Jan 14; Eagles won four of last five series games, winning three of last four visits here. OVC home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-12 against the spread.
Montana won its last three games, is 2-4-1 as a Big Sky home favorite, with wins by 12-11-6-6 points, but also three home losses, unusually high for them. Sacramento State is 2-3 on road, 3-1 as a Big Sky road underdog, losing away games by 7-5-14 points- they covered eight of last ten games overall. Hornets were 9-17 on arc in 92-83 win over Montana Jan 21; Hornets are 3-2 in last five games with Montana, but they’ve lost last nine visits to Missoula, with last eight of those all by 11+ points.
Armadillosports.com
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Wisconsin at Michigan
Wolverines host the Badgers in a Big 10 clash that will take place at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
In their last game, the Woverines snapped a 0-6 true road game skid with a 75-63 victory at Assembly Hall in Indiana. The win/cover moves Wolverines to 16-9 (9-13 ATS) on the campaign, 6-6, (5-7 ATS) in conference play. Big-Ten leading Wisky upended 66-59 as -11.5 point chalk at the Kohl Center by visiting Northwestern carry a 21-4 (11-11 ATS) record into the conterst including 10-2 (5-7 ATS) vs conference rivals.
Offensively, Michigan is putting up 74.6 points/game on a 47.5% FG average. On the defensive side of the ball the Wolverines are allowing 65.5 points/contest on a 47.1% FG average. Wisconsin nets 73.8 points/game on a 46.0% from the field with a sturdy defense allowing 60.4 points/game on 40.2% shooting.
These teams met in the middle of last month in Wisconsin where Badgers beat Wolverines 68-64 but failed at the betting window as -11.5 point chalk. Wisconsin has won 17 of the last 20 regular/playoff games against Michigan. However, covering hasn't been automatic money for Badgers as they're just 10-10 ATS over the span. Badgers have enjoyed success in Ann Arbor winning six of eight meetings with a vig-losing 4-4 record against the betting line.
San Francisco at Gonzaga
Gonzaga Bulldogs residing in the West Coast Conference are not only off to a perfect 26-0 starts, the Zags are also the nation's best bet with a Money-Making 18-4-1 record against the betting line. Zags will be looking to extend the streak Thursday night at McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane when they host San Francisco Dons (18-9, 13-10 ATS).
Here are a few things to know about Zags. They're 14-0 (11-2-1 ATS) vs the conference and have won ten straight (5-5 ATS) overall vs SF, seventeen consecutive (8-8-1 ATS) this milenium in front of the home audience vs Dons.
Michigan hosts Wisconsin
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com
#11 Wisconsin looks for a season sweep of Big Ten foe Michigan when the Badgers travel to Ann Arbor on Thursday night.
#11 Wisconsin will be coming off their first loss in their last eight games after being stunned at home on Sunday to Northwestern. The 66-59 defeat (WI -11.5) was the Badgers first home loss this season (13-1). Included in those 13 wins at the Kohl Center is a 68-64 (WI -10.5) win over Thursday’s opponent, Michigan. The Badgers take their 5-2 (3-4 ATS) road record to try and start a new winning streak with a sweep of the Wolverines. Wisconsin is 5-0 (3-2 ATS) on the road against unranked opponents this season (road losses coming at Creighton and at Purdue). Michigan (9-13 ATS) has won four of their last five games, including finishing off a season sweep of Indiana with a 75-63 (UM +2.5) road win on Sunday. The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last six. Coach John Beilein’s kids are 13-3 (5-8 ) in the Crisler Center this season. Michigan is 5-2 (3-4 ATS) at home in Big Ten play up to this point. In total trends, the Over is 8-2 in Michigan’s last 10 home games. Not only is Wisconsin going for a sweep of the Wolverines, but also the Badgers have taken the last five contests against Michigan (2-3 ATS), since Feb. 2014. Wisconsin is 8-2 (4-6 ATS) in the last 10 meetings (since Feb. 2011) including 3-1 (1-3) in Ann Arbor. Going back further, the underdog is 14-3 ATS in the past 17 times the Badgers and Wolverines have met. On the injury front, Badgers G Bronson Koenig (13.4 PPG) has been listed as probable with a leg (calf) injury for Wisconsin’s past three games (since Feb. 5). Koenig was limited to two points on 1-for-8 FG (30 minutes) in Sunday’s loss to Northwestern, and is listed again as probable for Thursday night’s tilt.
A healthy Koenig will go a long way to getting Wisconsin back in the win column for Coach Greg Gard. Koenig is just averaging 8.3 PPG in the three games battling with a leg ailment, while shooting just 8-for-29 FG (4-for-15 3PT) in the process. The senior sharpshooting guard was struggling even before the injury, averaging just 8.8 PPG (14-for-55 FG, 7-for-31 3PT) over his last five. Koenig had a team-high 16 points in the Jan. 18 win, including 10 in the last six minutes of the second half to help Wisconsin regain the lead and pull away. The normally-stingy Wisconsin defense (60.4 PPG, 4th in NCAA) did hold Michigan to 64 total points, but let up 43 of those in the second half, 12 more than their (31 second half PPG allowed) average. The Wolverines shot 47.6% 3PT (10-of-21) against the Badgers, an area of weakness in Coach Gard’s solid defense this season (35.6% 3PT, 251st in NCAA). While Wisconsin still plays on the fundamental tenets of patience, and valuing possessions while playing defense without fouling (15.6 PF/game, 6th in NCAA), the Badgers aren’t as efficient on offense in their slow pace as they’ve been in the past. The Badgers do have a very formidable frontcourt and should be able to exploit that advantage over a Wolverines team that struggles mightily on the glass. F Ethan Happ (14.2 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 60% FG) is having a remarkable sophomore season for the Badgers, ranking amongst the top five in the Big Ten in FG%, RPG, and steals per game (2.0). Frontcourt mate, senior Nigel Hayes (13.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG) has taken a backseat to Happ as the number one option on offense for the Badgers. In turn, the 6’8” senior has seen his field goal percentage (45%) rise almost 10% from last season. Northwestern was able to get Wisconsin on the ropes with patience, good shot selection (44.8% FG, 41.2% 3PT) and almost turnover-free basketball (six turnovers). Efficiency from beyond the arc and few turnovers (9.4 TO/G, 1st in NCAA) are what Coach Beilein’s Wolverines are all about, so Wisconsin could find themselves in some trouble on Thursday night yet again. Most of all, the Badgers can’t afford just 24 total points from their “big three” of Happ, Hayes and Koenig.
Michigan has gone on a little run and now find themselves squarely in the discussion for a NCAA Tournament berth if success can continue. The Wolverines have done this while their two star players have headed in opposite directions, statistically. Derrick Walton Jr. (14.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.8 APG) and Zak Irvin (12.6 PPG, 4.4 APG) have been the two senior leaders of this team, but Walton Jr. is currently playing as well as anyone in the conference while Irvin has been nowhere to be found on the stat sheet in his last four games. Irvin has only 13 points in his last four (3.3 PPG) while playing 32+ minutes each game. His slump goes beyond explanation, as Irvin is four for his last 31 from the field (2-15 3PT). Walton Jr., however, is white-hot. With five straight 20+ performances Walton Jr’s averages of 23.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 5.0 APG, all while shooting 92% FT (7.8 FTA/g) and 53.8% 3PT, the senior guard is carrying his team on his back. That 6.4 RPG that the 6’1” Walton Jr. is averaging is impressive, but an upsetting trend for Coach Beilein, especially given Wisconsin’s talented and big frontline. F Moritz Wagner (11.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG) and F D.J. Wilson (10.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.5 BPG) will have to step up to stop Wisconsin from playing volleyball on the offensive glass. Sharpshooting Duncan Robinson (8.5 PPG, 41% 3PT) will be a key weapon against the Badgers below-par 3PT defense. Robinson scored 11 points (3-for-5 3PT) in the loss in the Kohl Center in January and is 11-for-25 3PT, consistently hitting 2+ threes in his last five games. Michigan gave Wisconsin all they could handle in a tough road environment; with home court at their side, the Wolverines will have to hope to be closer to their season average of 15 fouls per game (5th in NCAA) than the 21 fouls they committed in Madison. Wisconsin went to the line 24 times in the January win, while Michigan shot just 11 free throws.
Thursday's First Four
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
A look at the day's top four college basketball matchups, ranked in order of most attractive.
Utah at Oregon
The Ducks open the week one game behind Arizona in the Pac-12 standings and own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the 'Cats, giving them a chance to finish as the league's champ and top seed for the conference tournament if they can remain unscathed over the final five games and get a little help along the way. The part of the equation that Dana Altman's team can control begins with a tough home dates against the Utes, who were awfully feisty in a 73-67 Oregon win in Salt Lake City on Jan. 21. Although Utah is an NCAA Tournament bubble team, it is clearly one of the top six teams in a league that could receive exactly that many bids. That will be up to how the Utes finish. Winning at Oregon here would be a major score, but they haven't beaten the Ducks in eight consecutive games and haven't won in Eugene since 1951. Ducks star guard Dillon Brooks has averaged 20.2 points in six career wins over the Utes, returning from a foot injury to score 19 points and deny the Utes an upset in the previous matchup. Utah did win the rebounding battle 33-28 and have the horses to challenge Oregon up front in Kyle Kuzma and David Collette. Oregon center Chris Boucher, whose mom will be watching him play for the first time ever since this will be the final week of their home careers for the Ducks seniors. Oregon has won 40 consecutive games at Matthew Knight Arena. The Ducks, who have won 11 of the last 12 in the series. The under has prvailed in five of the last seven Ducks games.
Wisconsin at Michigan
After losing to Northwestern at home on Sunday night, the Badgers aim to rebound in order to avoid slipping into a first-place tie with Purdue and Maryland atop the Big Ten. Meanwhile, the Wolverines are attempting to climb over .500 in league play for the third time this season and are hoping that the charm cliche plays since they've failed the first two times. Oddsmakers have made Michigan a 1-point home favorite, but this is basically a pick'em. Wisconsin failed to cover in the 68-64 home win on Jan. 17, hanging on as 10-point 'chalk.' Including that game, the Badgers are 2-6 against the number over the last eight, struggling offensively since they've only reached the 70-point mark once in the last five outings. Unless a late swing pushes them into a favorite's role, this will mark only the third time all season where they haven't giving points and are 0-2 SU and ATS in that situation, suffering double-digit losses at North Carolina and Purdue. Michigan is playing its best ball of the season, coming off its first road victory (75-63 at Indiana). Last time out at Crisler Arena, the Wolverines thrilled their fans with an 86-57 rout of Michigan State, the biggest win in that rivalry since 1948. They hit 10-of-21 3-pointers in that game, including eight of their first 12. Michigan shot 10-for-21 from beyond the arc in the loss in Madison as well, a driving force in leading by six points with 6:00 to go. Clearly, that weapon will play a major role here. The Wolverines were unhappy with all the foul trouble they got into in the first meeting since they're among the national leaders in not being whistled, so how the game is officiated here will also play a major role. Wisconsin point guard Bronson Koenig, who scored a team-high 16 points in the January win, is considered a game-time decision after being held out of practice the last two days due to a calf strain. It will be critical to have him out there against Michigan counterpart Derrick Walton, who has averaged 23 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5 assists over the last five games, shooting 56 percent. If Koenig can't go, freshman D'Mitrik Trice, would be in line for more minutes. Wisconsin has won 17 of 19 games in this series.
San Francisco at Gonzaga
After defeating Saint Mary's in Moraga on Saturday, the Bulldogs cleared the biggest obstacle that would keep them from entering the NCAA Tournament unscathed. Although they may see the Gaels again in a WCC Tournament final, that game will be played at Orleans Arena in Vegas, not a raucous tiny gym where everyone is against you. Gonzaga will play only one more true road game (Feb. 23, at San Diego), but do have two of the league's top teams coming into Spokane. The season finale will be played against talented third-place BYU, while the other game against an opponent with a winning record comes tonight against the Dons, who come in tied for fourth alongside Santa Clara. First-year head coach Kyle Smith arrived after an impressive stint at Columbia and has already surpassed USF's win total in three of the last four seasons, posting the school's best record through 27 games since 2000. Wins over Utah and Illinois State in Hawai'i highlight its resume, but San Francisco is 0-5 against the West Coast Conference's "Big Three," losing each game by at least 10 points. This will be its last crack at an upset. In a 95-80 home loss on Jan. 5, the Dons did post the highest-scoring output Gonzaga has surrendered all season despite shooting just 7-for-29 from the field and 13-for-21 from the free-throw line. Zags point guard Nigel Williams-Goss got wherever he wanted, fighting off a flu bug to shoot 12-for-15 from the field and 9-for-9 from the line, finishing with 36 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. For the game, the Bulldogs shot 61 percent and outrebounded USF 39-23. Freshman guard Jordan Ratinho led the Dons with a season-high 20 points but has only scored in double-figures once in an 11-game span since that outburst. Gonzaga is 33-4 against USF under Mark Few, winning 10 straight. The Dons have held nine straight opponents under 70 points. As such, 10 of their last 11 games have gone under the posted total, a run that began after giving up 95 against the Zags.
Memphis at UConn
A victory would give the Huskies a winning record for the first time all season. Although there are no illusions that UConn can reach the NCAA Tournament unless it runs the table in the conference tournament, defeating Memphis would also secure its first three-game winning streak of a season that was cursed early on due to multiple season-ending injuries. The Tigers do harbor at-large aspriations, but are certainly on the outside looking in at the moment, running fourth in an AAC that isn't likely to be awarded three bids unless a shock champ claims the automatic bid. Behind SMU and Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis and UCF have put together strong seasons, but all appear to be NIT teams at best barring something unforeseen. Tubby Smith's team does have road games at the Mustangs and Bearcats remaining that could significantly boost their resume, but they'll be decisive underdogs in those games. Here, the Tigers opened as 4.5-point 'dogs against a UConn team it handled 70-61 on Jan. 5. Memphis hasn't lost consecutive games all season, but comes off a disappointing 74-62 loss to Temple, only its second loss as a home favorite. Its last road game came on Feb. 4 in Orlando, where UCF ran away for a 72-57 win. Memphis forced 18 turnovers to win the first matchup, scoring 16 fast-break points. The Huskies want to limit any easy baskets and force them to work in the halfcourt, where they have an advantage due to 7-footer Amida Brimah patrolling the paint. Tigers forward Dedric Lawson is averaging 19.8 points and 10.3 rebounds, but may find it difficult to match his usual production with Brimah lurking. UConn needs him to stay out of foul trouble. Over the past three games, the Huskies are 34-for-55 from 3-point range, a drastic change from what they've shown for most of the season. They shot 4-for-20 from beyond the arc in the loss at Memphis. Hot shooting has helped eight of the last nine games involving UConn to wind up going over the posted total, which includes a streak of six in a row entering this one. The Jan. 5 meeting topped 127.5.