NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, February 9th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
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Indiana lost three of last four games but won last three at home, including a triple OT win over Penn State; Hoosiers are 1-3 as a Big 14 underdog, 0-1 at home. Purdue won five of last six games, is 1-4 as a road favorite, with wins by 1-11-6 points on Big 14 road, with losses at Iowa, Nebraska. Purdue won three of last four games with Indiana, but they lost three of last four visits to Bloomington, losing by 11-28-4 points. Big 14 home teams are 23-17 vs spread this season in games where spread was less than 5 points.
Charleston won its last three games, is 2-2-1 as a home favorite, winning CAA home games by 5-6-10-13-13 points, with a loss to UNCW. Northeastern lost six of last seven games, is 0-3 as a road underdog, with road losses by 7-7-5-15-4 points and an OT win at Drexel. Northeastern is shooting 40.1% on arc on CAA games; Charleston holds CAA foes to 28.3% on the arc. Huskies won four of their last five games with Charleston; they won two of three visits here in CAA play. Single digit home favorites are 13-12 in CAA games this season.
Green Bay rallied back from down 15 early in 2nd half to beat Northern Kentucky 80-71 Jan 10; UWGB was +12 in turnovers (19-7), -14 on boards (43-29)- they’re 3-0 vs NKU in Horizon tilts, winning 85-78 in their visit here LY. Green Bay won four of last five games, is 3-2 on Horizon road, 2-1 as a road dog, losing at Valpo/Detroit. Northern Kentucky won three of last four games, is 3-1 at home in Horizon, with wins by 13-8-14 points and only loss by 9 to Oakland. Horizon home favorites of less than 5 points are 4-12 vs spread.
Duke won its last three games, is 2-3 as a home favorite, with ACC home wins by 53-11-12-8 points, with a loss to NC State. North Carolina won nine of last 10 games but covered one of last five; they’re 3-2 on ACC, losing at Ga Tech/Miami- their road wins are by 3-6-8 points. Duke opponents shoot 53% inside arc, 13th in a 15-team league. Duke is 11-4 in its last 15 games with North Carolina, winning three of last four played in Durham, with wins by 5-12-2 points. Tar Heels won 76-72 here LY. ACC home favorites of 3 or less points are 4-8 vs spread.
UTEP won six of its last seven games, after a 2-13 start; Miners covered their last five games, are 5-0 SU at home in conference, with two OT wins. Louisiana Tech is 3-1 on C-USA road, 2-0 as road favorite, with wins by 24-6-12 points, and loss by 10 at MTSU. Bulldogs hammered UTEP 64-44 in first meeting Jan 5, holding them to 0.67 pts/poss, Tech was +8 in turnovers in game; they’ve won four of last five games with UTEP, but lost two of last three visits to El Paso. Road favorites of 5 or less points are 6-3 vs spread in C-USA games.
Nebraska lost seven of its last eight games, is 2-3 at home in Big 14, with losses by 8-1-11 points, wth losses to Northwestern/Ohio St/ Michigan St- they’re 4-2 against spread as a Big 14 underdog, 1-0 at home. Wisconsin won its last seven games, is 2-2 as a road favorite, with wins by 7-2-7-14 points on Big 14 road, with only loss by 11 at Purdue. Wisconsin is 7-2 vs Nebraska in Big 14 games, going 3-1 in Lincoln, with wins by 24-6-10 points. Road favorites of 5+ points are 2-4 vs spread in Big 14 games.
SMU beat Temple 79-65 at home in first meeting Jan 4, outscoring Owls 24-7 on foul line; Mustangs are 5-2 in AAC games with Temple, losing two of three visits here- they won 60-55 in Philly in 2015, lost other two visits by 7-9 points. SMU won its last six games, covered its last five; they’re 4-0-1 as road favorite, winning away games by by 4-31-16-5-23 points, with loss by hoop at Cincy. Temple won three of last four games, is 3-2 at home in AAC, with losses by 6-2 points. Road favorites of 6+ points are 7-5-1 vs spread in AAC games this season.
Oregon beat UCLA 89-87 at home in first meeting, after Bruins led 82-74 with 3;32 left; both teams scored over 1.2 pts/poss- Ducks led 52-47 at half. Oregon is 9-3 in last 12 games with UCLA, winning last three; they won three of last four visits to Westwood. Ducks are 3-1 on Pac-12 road, with only loss by 9 at Colorado; they’re 9-2 vs spread in league. Bruins won 8 of last 10 games, are 1-3 as a home favorite, with home wins by 10-14-22 points and a loss to Arizona. Home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-6 vs spread this season.
Santa Clara made 13-26 on arc, never trailed in 72-58 win over San Francisco in first meeting Dec 31, just second win for Broncos in last seven series games- they lost last three visits to USF, by 9-7-3 points, with last two of those games going OT. Santa Clara is 0-3 as a WCC road underdog, losing away games by 30-10-35 points, with wins at USD/Pepperdine/Portland. San Francisco is won six of last seven games, covered 7 of last 8; they won/covered their last four home games. Home favorites of 6 or less points are 5-8 vs spread in WCC this season.
Chattanooga outscored Furman 25-10 on foul line in 80-64 home win over the Paladins Jan 7, a game Furman led by a hoop early in 2nd half. UTC won seven of last nine series games; teams split last four series games played here. Mocs are 2-2 on SoCon road, losing at UNCG by 5, at East Tennessee by 5- 0-1 as a road underdog. Furman won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); they’re 5-0 SU at home, 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 15-2-13-17-48 points. Home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-8 vs spread in SoCon games this season.
Belmont is 11-0 in OVC, covering its last four games; they’re 6-1 as road favorites, with five of its seven road wins by 12+ points. Belmont was 12-34 from arc in 77-60 win over Jacksonville State in first meeting Jan 19; Bruins are 8-1 vs JSU in OVC games, winning three of four visits here, with wins by 11-23-9 points. Gamecocks are 2-3 at home in OVC despite being favored in all five games; their home losses were by 13-5-3 points. JSU is 3-1 as an underdog, all on road. Road favorites of 5 or less points are 7-5 vs spread in OVC games this season.
Eastern Washington won four of last five games, winning last game 130-124 in triple OT; they’re 4-0 as a road underdog, 3-2 SU, with its two Big sky road losses by total of 4 points, at Weber St/Montana St. North Dakota won four of its last five games, is 3-1 as a home favorite (5-0 SU), winning its conference home games by 5-30-6-25-10 points. Home side won last four EWU-North Dakota games; Eagles lost all three Big Sky visits to Grand Forks, by 18-2-8 points. Home favorites of 3 or less points are 1-6 vs spread in Big Sky games.
St Peter’s lost its last three games by total of six points, with two of losses in OT; Peacocks are 6-0 vs spread on MAAC road, 4-2 SU, losing last two, at Iona by 3, Monmouth by 1. Quinnipiac is 5-2 at home, 3-0 as a home favorite; their home losses are to Monmouth/Siena. Quinnipiac was -9 in turnovers, lost 58-54 at St Peter’s Jan 9; Bobcats are 3-4 vs St Peter’s in MAAC games, winning two of three played here- series was split last three years. MAAC home teams are 6-13 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points.
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NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
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North Carolina at Duke
North Carolina Tar Heels (21-4, 12-11-1 ATS) journey to Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham for a college hoops matchup with Duke Blue Devils (18-5, 9-13 ATS).
Tar Heels a dangerous group lead by Justin Jackson (18.6) can keep up with the best of them netting 77.8 points/game while surrendering 68.6 on 41.5% shooting. Duke lead by Luke Kennard (19.8 ) are more proficient in the scoring department at 82.5 PPG and have a slight edge on the defensive side allowing 67.9 PPG on 42.9% from the field.
Blue Devils with those Cameron Crazies on their side along with an imposing 26-4 home court stretch have been pegged as -2.5 point chalk at Sports Interaction. Buyer beware - backing Blue Devils comes with some risk. They're just 13-14-1 against the betting line in those home games, 5-9 ATS hosting a conference rival. Additionally, Blue Devils have not responded at the betting window vs UNC in Durham posting a money-burning 4-15 mark the past nineteen regular season meetings.
Trends to Watch - Thursday
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Battle of the Blues
North Carolina and Duke renew acquaintances at Cameron Indoor Stadium for the first of two meetings, barring another game in the postseason such as the ACC Tournament in 2011. UNC has lost three of its past four trips up US 15-501, but they won at Cameron last season by a 76-72 score. The Tar Heels have covered five of their past six in front of the Crazies, although they're just 2-4 SU during the span. Duke is favored by three points as of Thursday afternoon after opening as 1 1/2-point favorites.
In the past seven meetings in this series, the 'under' has hit in five of the past seven. Duke has owned Carolina lately, winning four of the past five outright, and eight of the past 11 overall. In five of the past 10 games the game has been decided by five or fewer points, with two games ending in one-point decisions. The road team has covered 19 of the past 26 between these rivals, with the underdog hitting in six of the past eight.
As far as recent trends, Carolina has been having a very difficult time against the number, which is likely the reason the public is loading up on the Blue Devils, or 'Dook', as UNC fans lovingly call their rivals. The Heels are 1-6 ATS over their past seven road games, and 1-7 ATS in their past eight road outings against a team with a winning overall record. The Heels are also 1-4 ATS in their past five league battles. Duke hasn't been much more dependable lately, covering just two of their past seven on Coach K court, and going 3-9 ATS in their past 12 overall. They're also a dismal 3-12 ATS in their past 15 leagues games, and 1-7 ATS in their past eight following a straight-up win.
SMC on Auto-Pilot?
St. Mary's (Calif.) is positioned at 20th in the Associated Press' Top 25 rankings, and they're heavily favored to take care of visiting Portland. The Gaels are currently 24-point favorites to clip the wings of the Pilots. It's a familiar spot for the Pilots, who have been double-digit underdogs on five different occasions this season. After failing to cover their first two, including the first meeting at home against St. Mary's, Portland is 3-0 ATS in their past three as 18 1/2-point underdogs or greater.
If Portland is to cover in this one, they'll need vast improvement from their last try against the Gaels. Portland was limited to a season-low 33 points, and they shot just 25 percent from the floor, including 2-of-9 from behind the arc. Conversely, SMC was 50 percent from the field, dropping in 12 of their 30 attempts from the perimeter.
St. Mary's is 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of .400 or less, and 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven against teams with a losing straight up record. The favorite has covered 24 of the past 35 in this series, but the road team is 9-3 ATS in the past 12, too. Total bettors might be the biggest winners if they play the 'under'. The under is 4-0 in Portland's past four, 5-0 in their past five road games and 9-2-1 in their past 12 against teams with a winning straight up record. The under is 6-1-1 in SMC's past eight against teams with a losing straight up record. The 'under' is 5-1 in the past six meetings in Moraga, and 9-2-1 in the past 12 overall in this series.
Pac Men
Oregon and UCLA meet in the only clash between two Top 10 teams at Pauley Pavilion. The Ducks roll in after dismantling Arizona over the weekend, running their mark to 9-2 ATS over the past 11 outings. They're also 20-7 ATS in their past 27 league games. In addition, Oregon is 8-1 ATS in the past nine against teams with a winning overall mark. For UCLA, they're just 3-9 ATS in their past 12, and 1-4 ATS in their past five at home while going 0-4 ATS in their past four tries against teams with a winning overall record. The Ducks have covered four of the past five in this series, and they're 5-2 ATS in their past seven trips to Pauley.
Southern California looks to get untracked against Oregon State, a team which has already dropped 20 games this season. The Trojans enter play as 17-point favorites, and they haven't been great in that role lately. As a double-digit favorite, USC has failed to cover in their previous three favored by 10 or more. That includes a 70-63 win in Corvallis on Dec. 28 as 12-point favorites. While the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the past seven in this series, the home team has covered in four in a row.
Utah aims to keep the ship in the right direction when they welcome Washington State to the Huntsman Center in SLC. The Cougars have covered five of the past six road games, and they're 4-1 ATS in the past five overall. Washington State is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning overall record, too. The Utes are 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 overall, and 14-5-1 ATS in their past 20 league games. Utah has dominated WaZu against the number lately, too, covering six straight in Salt Lake City, nad five of the past six overall. The home team is 10-2 ATS in the past 12 meetings in this series.