NCAAB Betting News and Notes Thursday, January 12th, 2017

NCAAB Knowledge

Rhode Island won four of last five games, losing last game by 3 at Dayton Friday; Rams had won first two A-14 games by 30-34 points. URI is 4-5 vs teams in top 125; they made 50.7% of 3’s in their three A-14 tilts. Rhode Island won its last four games with LaSalle, winning by 3-17 points in last two played here. Explorers won four of last five games, with a triple OT win at Mercer in there; LaSalle is #340 in country at defending arc, which could be a problem here- they’re 2-2 in true road games, losing by 5 at Temple, 11 at Dayton.

How much partying did Clemson’s athletes do Monday night? Tigers lost last two games by a total of 8 points, to UNC/Notre Dame; Tigers are 2-1 in true road games, winning by hoop at South Carolina, 5 at Wake Forest. Georgia Tech is 3-2 in last five games vs Clemson, after losing 10 in row to Tigers before that; Clemson lost by 11-2 points in last two visits here. Three of last six series games went to OT. Tech just played UNC-Duke-Louisville in a row, losing last two by 53-15 points after upsetting the Tar Heels at home.

Miami hasn’t played in eight days, when their 7-game win streak was snapped at Syracuse; Hurricanes are 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with only win by 18 over #65 NC State. Miami beat Notre Dame twice LY; Irish lost last two visits here, by 4-9 points. Notre Dame won its first three ACC games by 1-7-5 points, scoring 76.6 pts/game- they won their only true road game at Pittsburgh by 1 in OT. ND’s only two losses were on neutral floors to Purdue/Villanova, top 20 teams. Irish are an experienced team that makes lot of 3’s and protects the ball well.

James Madison is 3-1 in CAA after being 2-11 in pre-conference tilts; Dukes are turning ball over 24.5% of time, 5th-worst in country- they’re #5 experience team in country that hasn’t meshed well with its new coach. JMU won four of last five games with Charleston; Cougars won 65-62 here LY. Charleston allowed 59.5 pts/game in winning its first four CAA games, with wins at Elon/Delaware; Cougars play #343 tempo, have #47 eFG% defense- opponents are making 27.2% on arc, worst in country.

Wisconsin had its 9-game win streak snapped at Purdue Sunday; Badgers are 6-3 vs top 100 teams, with all three losses vs top 20 teams. Wisconsin is a top 10 rebounding team that makes 55.9% of shots inside arc. Ohio State/Wisconsin split their last 14 meetings; Buckeyes are 2-2 in last four visits to Madison. OSU are 0-3 in Big 14 games, losing by 5-1-10 points with losses at Illinois/Minnesota. Buckeyes are shooting only 44.2% inside arc- they played only seven guys in their last game. Wisconsin is forcing turnovers 24.2% of time in league games.

Middle Tennessee won four of last five games with Marshall, winning 99-90 in C-USA tourney LY. Thundering Herd lost 90-51/74-53 in last two visits here. MTSU won its first three games in C-USA by 11-4-11 points, allowing 64.7 pts/game; they’re #36 experience team playing #317 tempo. Marshall is 4-0 in league, with road wins at FAU/FIU; they won last game 110-93 over Charlotte. Herd is 1-5 vs top 100 teams with only win by 10 over #85 Ohio U. Marshall is 2-6 in top 100 games, with those FAU/FIU games the only Marshall wins.

Home side won five of last six SMU-Cincinnati games; Mustangs lost last three visits here, by 3-6-7 points. SMU won its last ten games overall, last three by 14+ points- they’re 2-2 in true road games, winning by 4 at Memphis, 34 at ECU- their road losses were at USC/Boise State. Cincy won its last six games, winning first three AAC games by 6-36-9 points while scoring an average of 73 pts/game- they’re better on offense than previous Bearcat teams. Mustangs are #1 offensive rebounding team in country (rebound 42.3% of missed shots).

Arizona won nine of last 12 games with Arizona State; Sun Devils lost last six visits to Tucson, all by 11+ points. Wildcats are #325 experience team whose subs play #293 minutes; they’ve won nine games in row, are 4-0 in Pac-12, winning first two conference home games by 9-10 over Utah/Colorado. ASU is 2-2 in Pac-12 with three of four games decided by 6 or less points; six of Sun Devils’ eight losses are by 11+ points- their four Pac-12 opponents shot 60.3% inside arc- not good. Arizona has a 43.6% eFG% defense in league play, tops in Pac-12.

Purdue was up 49-25 at halftime, drilled Iowa 89-67 at home 15 days ago. Boilers made 12-29 on arc, shot 58% inside arc. Purdue is 3-1 in Big 14, winning only road game by points at Ohio State; they’re 4-3 in top 100 games. Iowa won four of its last six games with Purdue, which lost its last three visits here, by 10-7-12 points. Hawkeyes won two of three games since losing at Purdue, splitting pair of OT games, beating Rutgers by 6. Iowa are #345 experience team that is playing lot of guys, playing pace #30- they’re 2-6 against top 100 teams.

Northwestern is 2-2 in Big 14 games, winning by 10 at Penn State, 8 at Nebraska- they lost at Michigan St.- they’re 8-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with six of eight wins by 14+ points. Wildcats are 2-0 in Big 14 meetings with Rutgers; they thrashed Scarlet Knights 98-59 LY. Rutgers lost its last five games after an 11-1 start; Knights lost by 13 to Penn State in only home game of those five. Rutgers is turning ball over 22.4% of time in league games, shooting 37.1% inside arc, 27.9% outside it. Wildcats need all of the winnable games to get into NCAAs.

Utah won its last seven games with USC, winning by 18-24 here the last two years. Utes are 2-1 in Pac-12, beating Colorado by 16 in only home game- they’re 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with win over Colorado the only one. USC lost two of last three games after a 14-0 start; they’re 3-1 in true road games, with win at Texas A&M- they’re experience team #328 that turned ball over 20.3% of time in league games. Utah is having trouble getting to foul line- they’re shooting 57% inside arc. Trojans are 3-2 in top 100 games, with wins over SMU-BYU-A&M.

UCLA runs like hell but isn’t deep; how will that play in high altitude? Bruins are 2-1 in true road games, winning by 5 at Kentucky, 13 at Oregon State- they’re 6-1 in top 100 games, are making 42.8% of 3’s, best in country. Favorites covered last four UCLA-Colorado games; Bruins won six of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here. Colorado starts out by losing first three Pac-12 games, all on road, by 16-1-9 points. Buffs turned ball over 20.2% of time in first three Pac-12 tilts. Single digit favorites are 6-5 vs spread in Pac-12 games this season.

Belmont won seven of last nine games with Morehead State, but lost last two visits here, by total of three points. Bruins won last five games, are 3-0 in OVC games, winning by 5-16-12 points- they’re 4-2 in true road games, with losses to Vandy/URI, top 70 teams. Belmont is 9-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with four wins by 6 or less points. OVC home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread so far this season. Morehead State has interim coach, but won its last three D-I home games; they’re 0-7 vs teams in top 150, with six losses by 8+ points.

Armadillosports.com

Cal, Washington battle
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com

California looks to continue their recent dominance over Washington when they host the struggling Huskies in a Thursday evening Pac-12 battle.

The Golden Bears will try to make it six straight wins over Washington (dating back to Jan. 2014) when they host Coach Lorenzo Romar’s Huskies on Thursday. Coach Cuonzo Martin’s Golden Bears are 2-2 in conference play and have covered their last three contests. Last week they split road games in their Los Angeles trip, losing on Thursday in Pauley Pavilion 81-71 (Cal +10.5) and beating USC on Sunday night, 74-73 (Cal +1). The Huskies come off their first conference win as they shellacked Oregon State on Saturday night (87-61). Washington was a 10.5-point favorite at home against the Beavers and managed to take care of business, unlike the last time they were double-digit favorites at home and lost to rival Washington State on New Year’s Day. The Huskies are 1-3 (0-2 ATS) on the road this season, including losses at TCU and Gonzaga. Washington is 5-9 ATS to this point and has failed to cover in each of their seven losses this season. California is 9-2 at home this season and 9-3 as a favorite, but just 4-7 ATS at home and 4-8 ATS as a favorite. Their lone home conference loss came in the Golden Bears’ Pac-12 opener hosting Arizona, as they were defeated 67-62 (Cal -2.5) on Dec. 30. California has not only taken their last five against Washington, but they’re also 5-0 ATS in that span. The last time Washington got in the win column against the Golden Bears was in Jan. 2013 when the Huskies won in Haas Pavilion (62-47) as 5.5-point underdogs. On the injury front, Washington’s already shaky defense took a hit when they learned that senior F Malik Dime (5.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.6 BPG) suffered a broken finger in the second half of their win against Oregon State. Dime will be out for 4-5 weeks.

California’s star, F Ivan Rabb (15.4 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 55% FG), must be salivating over the opportunity to play against the Pac-12’s worst defensive team without their best rim protector (Dime). Rabb has upped his level of play as competition has heightened (last five games; Pac-12 play and at Virginia), averaging 14.2 RPG and posting double-doubles in three of his last five games. Rabb has also started stepping out beyond the three point arc, after not having made a triple in November and December (0-for-2), Rabb is 4-for-5 from downtown over his three 2017 games. California’s solid defense (62.4 PPG, 18th in NCAA) will lay their focus squarely on stopping one-man wrecking crew Markelle Fultz for Washington, although the Huskies supporting cast has started making more noise lately. The Huskies score their fair share of points (83.9 PPG, 17th in NCAA) but scored only 71 points in each of their two road losses to this point (shooting only 30% FG at Gonzaga). California is an elite rebounding team, boasting a +8.3 rebounding margin (15th in NCAA) and are great at shutting down offensive rebounding opportunities (something Washington has excelled at thus far). Washington doesn’t have a monopoly on good freshman point guards, as California boasts Charlie Moore (15.2 PPG, 3.4 APG) who’s excelled since being a starter on day one. The 5’11” jet from Chicago looks to score-first and can be a bit lazy with the ball (3.3 TO) but has the look of an all-league player in the future. When Moore plays under control, as he did at USC on Sunday night (6-for-8 FG, 16 points), California is very tough to beat. Seven-foot Kingsley Okoroh (5.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.6 BPG) is to Coach Martin what Malik Dime was for Washington, an extraordinary rim protector and scrapper. Okoroh will probably have many confrontations in the paint on defense with Washington’s Fultz driving through the lane. G Jabari Bird (14.1 PPG) has seen his percentages and efficiency drop with more scoring opportunity this season, but still has the green light from Coach Martin as the Golden Bear with the best resume from the perimeter.

When talking about the Huskies, the conversation has to begin and end with the inimitable Fultz (22.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 6.4 APG). In a deep NBA draft class, Fultz has as good a chance to go first overall as anyone. That said, it seems lately that the freshman phenom is starting to pace himself and his teammates are responding (positively) in kind. The Huskies are better when Fultz doesn’t have to put on a one-man show with otherworldly stat lines, as shown by Fultz’s ordinary (by his standards) 20 points, three rebounds and five assists in Washington’s convincing win over Oregon State on Saturday. Where the Huskies may need Fultz now, more than anywhere else, is on defense with the loss of Dime. Fultz blocks 1.3 shots per game and will need to protect the paint and crash the boards even more in the 6’10” senior’s absence. California will look to slow the game down and play in the halfcourt, as the Golden Bears average just about 10 possessions less per game than the Huskies, who would rather play at a breakneck pace. While California lost to UCLA, another team who loves to get up and down, the Golden Bears made it tough on the No. 4 Bruins before winning 81-71. It won’t be nearly as tough for California to dictate pace at home against the young Huskies, which means Washington is going to have to be efficient and get offense from multiple options in multiple ways. The Huskies supporting cast featuring G David Crisp (14.1 PPG, 44% 3PT), F Noah Dickerson (11.6 PPG, 8.4 RPG) and F Matisse Thybulle (9.2 PPG, 44% 3PT) will need to step up. Dickerson has struggled once conference play started (3-for-12 FG in his last two games) but will be called on more with Dime’s absence. Thybulle is very inconsistent, but did pour in 17 points on Saturday (7-for-12 FG, 3-for-6 3PT) against the Beavers. Crisp has emerged as a consistent Robin to Fultz’s Batman, scoring double-figures in each of the Huskies last seven games (16 PPG, 3.6 APG).

Thursday's Elite Eight
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

UCLA at Colorado

Although students aren’t back on campus until next week, it’s never easy to go into Boulder and successfully deal with the atmosphere and altitude. Rival Colorado State is the only team to win at the Coors Events Center this season, so even though the Buffs appear unassuming due to their winless mark in Pac-12 play, they’ve beaten Xavier and Texas and just hung with Arizona in Tucson. Fielding a starting lineup featuring four seniors and a redshirt junior, Colorado has plenty of experience and should be physically up to the challenge of clashing with a Bruins squad that has won at Kentucky and Oregon State, losing only at Oregon on a Dillon Brooks’ buzzer-beater. Despite their great run, they've failed to cover in five straight, last doing so in their 40-point win against Ohio State on Dec. 17. Freshmen Lonzo Ball and T.J. Leaf are first-round picks, while senior Bryce Alford is the Pac-12’s best shooter. UCLA averages 92.8 points per game and is shooting 53.4 percent from the field, the second-highest clip in the country. Colorado is 1-6 against the Bruins since joining the conference, but won the last meeting between the schools in Boulder on Jan. 2, 2015. Under Tad Boyle, the Buffaloes have won 25 of their last 27 home games, making this an awfully dangerous spot for UCLA. It will be fun to see how star point guard Lonzo Ball handles the challenge, especially since CU counterpart Derrick White is one of the Pac-12's better floor generals. For Colorado to have a realistic shot at an upset, it must get a strong night from guard Xavier Johnson (14.7 ppg), who scored 26 points at Arizona, one off his career-high.

SMU at Cincinnati

These are by far the top teams in the American and may wind up the league’s lone NCAA representatives unless Houston or UCF continue to surprise, so this one is huge. There’s a great chance that the Bearcats will be favored in every conference game they play from here until the rematch in Dallas on Feb. 12. Mick Cronin’s team has won six straight since losing at Butler on Dec. 10 and surrender just 61.4 points per game, holding opponents under 50 in 10 of their 15 games. Cincinnati ranks second nationally in field goal percentage defense, holding foes to 36 percent shooting. They’ve never lost at home to SMU. The Mustangs give up an average of just 59.1 points per game, ranking fifth in the country. They’ve held opponents to 37.1 percent shooting and have outrebounded 16 of the 17 teams they’ve come up against despite fielding a relatively small group. SMU has won 10 consecutive games and would match the third-longest run in program history with a win here. Both point guards, Troy Caupain and Shake Milton, are do-it-all types who will relentlessly go at one another, setting a physical tone.

Notre Dame at Miami

The Hurricanes hope a little home cooking will help them get back on track after dropping their first game this calendar year 70-55 up at Syracuse’s Carrier Dome. Miami is hoping that the Fighting Irish’s lack of experience in true road games becomes a factor here, although they won their first and only true road game on Dec. 31 at Pitt. Notre Dame has opened ACC play with three consecutive wins, joining Florida State as the only teams that remain undefeated within league play in the country’s top conference. Junior Bonzie Colson (16.4, 10.8 ) is one of the nation’s premier power forwards, while the teams other double-figure scorers, Steve Vasturia, V.J. Beachem and point guard Matt Farrell are all elite shooters. Miami is led by streaky point guard Ja’Quan Newton and talented forward Davon Reed, a strong 3-point shooter. Jim Larranaga’s Canes are neither as talented nor as deep as they’ve been the past two seasons, but a strong performance at home could help their coach notch a fifth 20-win season in six years, which would likely be good enough to reach another NCAA Tournament. Miami has only lost one game its been favored in this season, dropping a game to Florida in Lake Buena Vista on Nov. 27.

Ohio State at Wisconsin

Rutgers joins the Buckeyes as the only winless teams in conference play thus far, and the road gets no easier for Thad Matta’s team going forward. Following this date with the Badgers, they’ll host Michigan State and travel to Nebraska, so prosperity could elude them deep into the month if they don’t find a way to stop the downward spiral. Ohio State hasn’t won since edging UNC-Asheville at home 79-77 on Dec. 22 and got awful news when big forward Keita Bates-Diop was ruled out for the season with a stress fracture that will require surgery. His injury leaves 7-footer Trevor Thompson as Buckeyes’ only rim protector, which puts the emphasis on improved offensive play from the likes of point guard JaQuan Lyle and wings Jae’Sean Tate, Marc Loving and Kam Williams, all of who have been inconsistent. Ohio State is 1-4 outside Columbus, beating only Navy. Wisconsin hasn’t lost in Madison all season and are led by Ohio natives in seniors Nigel Hayes and Vitto Brown. The Badgers have won 11 of their last 13 against OSU at home and have won 15 straight at the Kohl Center. Greg Gard’s team will try and bounce back from a 66-55 loss at Purdue that snapped their nine-game win streak.

USC at Utah

The Utes took their shots at resume-building bulding wins against Butler and Xavier early in the season but fell short, then lost their quarterfinal game of the Diamond Head Classic to San Francisco and wound up third out in Hawai’i. Larry Krystkowiak’s team will need to do work in Pac-12 play to wind up on the right side of the bubble, so home games like this one and Saturday’s against UCLA are ones they need to perform well in. The Trojans opened the season 14-0, but have fallen at Oregon and home against Cal over their last three games. USC’s resume features nice wins over Texas A&M, SMU and BYU, but a loss here would drop them to 1-3 in Pac-12 play. Southern Cal certainly misses versatile forward Bennie Boatwright, who isn’t likely to return until later this month at the earliest. Center Chimezie Metu will have to deal with Utah’s twin towers, David Collete and Kyle Kuzma, in what could be the deciding matchup in this showdown. Six Utes average double-figures in points, while six Trojans average at least 9.5 per game. USC point guard Jordan McLaughlin will be key here as he tries to keep his team from falling apart in Salt Lake City, where they haven’t won since 2013. Utah has won seven straight in this series by an average of 14 points.

Purdue at Iowa

After opening 2017 with a disappointing 91-82 overtime home loss to Minnesota, the Boilermakers rebounded with great wins at Ohio State and home against Wisconsin. Pulling off their second victory of the season over Iowa would tie Purdue with Michigan State atop the Big Ten, but it’s likely going to be more difficult than the 89-67 win it scored over the Hawkeyes in West Lafayette on Dec. 28. Despite its uneven play this season, Iowa owns home wins over Iowa State, Michigan and most recently, Rutgers. 6-foot-6 wing Peter Jok (22.6) leads the conference in scoring and is the first Big Ten player with four 30-point games before February this century. According to Iowa sports information, he’s the only Big Ten player in the last 23 seasons to average more than 22 points, six rebounds, two assists and one steal and only one of six players in the last 20 years to pull off those numbers while shooting at least 40 percent from 3-point range. Jok struggled at Purdue, shooting 4-for-15 and just 1-for-7 from 3-point range while scoring a season-low 13 points. Five Boilers scored in double-figures against Iowa in the team’s final game of 2016, led by freshman Carsen Edwards’ game-high 19 points. Sophomore forward Caleb Swanigan (18.3, 12.9), a national Player of the Year candidate, had a double-double against Iowa, one of 14 he’s notched this season.

Marshall at Middle Tennessee

With apologies to a solid Old Dominion squad, these two have separated themselves as the class of Conference USA, excelling in the non-conference portion of their schedules before combining for seven wins to open league play. Dan D’Antoni, older brother of Houston Rockets coach Mike and a veteran NBA assistant, has brought an up-tempo style to his alma mater, ranking in the top-five nationally in possessions per game. The Thundering Herd scored 110 points in Saturday’s win over Charlotte, the third time they’ve surpassed the century mark this season. Forward Ryan Taylor (15.6, 8.4) picked up the USBWA Player of the Week award after averaging 25.3 points and 13.3 rebounds in wins over FAU, ODU and Charlotte, but he’s just the team’s third leading scorer behind guards Jon Elmore (21.1) and Stevie Browning (16.9). The over has prevailed in eight of Marshall’s last nine games. The under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 Blue Raiders games, but the over has come in twice in a row in wins at Rice and North Texas. Middle Tennessee shocked the country as a No. 15 seed by taking out Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament last March and returned three starters in addition to Arkansas transfer JaCorey Williams (17.4, 7.1), who leads MTSU in scoring and rebounding. Middle Tennessee eliminated Marshall in the last C-USA Tournament and has won eight of 11 meetings between the schools. The Blue Raiders are 72-13 at home in Murfreesboro since 2011-12.

Washington at California

This is a game NBA scouts have had circled since schedules were released, so even though neither team has had the type of success they hoped for to date, it’s still a big deal. Despite it looking like the Huskies are an NIT team at best, guard Markelle Fultz (22.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 6.4 apg) has played like the No. 1 prospect in college basketball. He does it all, but the lack of cohesion and defense around him has produced gaudy stats and jaw-dropping plays, but few wins. The Huskies come off an impressive 87-61 win over Oregon State but are 1-2 in true road games, beating only local rival Seattle U. In Cal, Washington faces a team with another likely lottery pick in power forward Ivan Rabb (15.4 ppg, 10.8 rpg). Senior wing Jabari Bird should make Fultz work on defense, while Bears freshman point guard Charlie Moore, the 2016 Mr. Basketball in Illinois, has led Cal in minutes and assists and comes off a 16-point night in Sunday’s 74-73 upset win at USC, its first win over a ranked opponent in three years. Rabb saved the game with a block of McLaughlin’s attempted runner at the buzzer. Cal has played four nationally-ranked foes over its last five games, beating the Trojans while losing to Virginia, Arizona and UCLA, and will be playing five of the next seven in Berkeley against teams that aren’t ranked, which gives it a chance to go on a run. They’re 3-0 ATS in 2017.