NCAAB Betting News and Notes Thursday, January 26th, 2017

NCAAB Knowledge

Xavier won its last three games with crosstown rival Cincinnati, by 17-2-10 points; teams split last six series games played here. Musketeers snapped 3-game skid with 86-75 win over Georgetown last game; they lost last two road games, allowing 81 pts/game, at Butler/Villanova. Cincy won its last ten games, is 10-0 at home; their losses are to URI on neutral floor, and by 10 at Butler. Bearcats have #5 eFG% defense in country. Over last two years, Big East teams are 11-2 vs AAC squads; favorites covered 10 of those 13 games.

Elon is 4-1 at home, 0-3 on road, with losses by 16-1-3 points; they won four of last five games overall. Phoenix is 44-106 (41.5%) on arc in its last four games. Northeastern lost its last three games (all on road), by 7-7-5 points; Huskies are 4-0 at home in CAA, with all four wins by 10+ points is shooting 44.3% on arc in all their CAA games, have #1 eFG% in CAA. Elon/Northeastern split their last four meetings, last three series games were decided by 7 or less points. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-2 vs spread.

Charleston won last three games with Towson State by 3-18-5 points LY, holding them to 47 pts/game; Cougars lost two of last three visits here, losing by 7-4 points, but won first meeting with Towson this year 62-57 at home, after trailing by 3 at half. Tigers won last four games, scoring 79.5 pts/game; they’re 2-1 at home in CAA, with only loss to 1st-place UNCW. Four of last five series games were decided by 4 or less points or in OT. CAA home teams are 7-3 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Northwestern won its last three games with Nebraska LY by 9-11-8 points, winning first meeting 74-66 in Lincoln Jan 8; Wildcats made 11-24 on arc in game they trailed by 7 early in second half. Teams split last four series games played here. Northwestern won its last four games, is 1-1 at home in Big 14, beating Iowa by 35, losing to Minnesota. Cornhuskers lost last four games, all by 8 or less points; they’re 2-2 on big 14 road, losing last two away games by total of seven points. Big 14 home favorites of 9+ points are 11-5 vs spread.

North Carolina won its last six games, is 3-0 at home in ACC, winning by 51-13-17 points; Tar Heels scored 85+ points in all six of those games, are rebounding 43.9% of their own missed shots in ACC play. Virginia Tech won three of last four games; they’re 1-2 on ACC road, with a win at Clemson- they lost 26 at NC State, 15 at Florida State. UNC won its last six games with Tech, winning last five meetings here, by 39-14-3-12-15 points. Double digit home favorites are 4-5 vs spread in ACC games.

Oregon State/Colorado are both 0-7 in Pac-12, but Buffs were picked to finish 4th, OSU last. Colorado lost to UCLA/USC in their two Pac-12 home games- they’re turning ball over 19.3% of time, shooting 33.8% on arc. Beavers have injury issues; they’re 0-3 on Pac-12 road, losing by 13-26-42 on Pac-12 road- their last six losses were all by 11+ points. Home side won last four Oregon State-Colorado games; Beavers lost last two visits here, by 6-17 points. Double digit home favorites are 6-7-1 vs spread in Pac-12 games this season.

Indiana won four of its last five games; they’re 1-1 on Big 14 road, splitting pair of 3-point tilts. Hoosiers are making 40.4% on arc but have #10 eFG% defense and thats with five of seven games being played at home. Michigan is 3-1 at home in Big 14, with only loss to Maryland; Wolverines teams are shooting 48.7% on arc against them in Pac-12 games. Indiana won five of last seven games with Michigan, but lost four of last six visits to Ann Arbor. Big 14 home favorites of 3 or less points are 8-6 vs spread.

Louisiana Tech won its last four games, three by 10+ points; they’re 3-0 on C-USA road, winning by 24-6-12 points. Tech force turnovers 22.4% of time in league play. UAB won five of its last six games; they’re 2-0 at home in C-USA, beating WKU/Marshall. Blazers are turning ball over 19.9% of time in league games. Louisiana Tech/UAB split their four C-USA meetings; Blazers beat Tech 72-62 in OT in C-USA tournament LY- teams split their two meetings here. C-USA home favorites of 3 or less points are 5-3-1 vs spread this season.

Washington State is 3-4 in Pac-12, better than expected; they’re 1-2 on Pac-12 road, losing by 30 Stanford, 4 at Cal- Coogs won at Washington. Wazzu’s Pac-12 losses are by 19-30-4-41 points. Arizona won its last 12 games; with Trier back in lineup now, they had eight guys play 17:00+ at UCLA last game, so they’ve got quality depth. Wildcats have #2eFG% defense in Pac-12. Arizona won its last ten games with Washington State, winning last five games here, by 9-24-17-35-24 points. Pac-12 favorites of 15+ points are 4-4 vs spread.

Oregon won its last seven games with Utah, winning last two visits here, by 2-18 points; they also beat Utes by 3-31 points in last two Pac-12 tourneys. Ducks won their last 16 games, won by 19-22 points on their Washington trip, their only two league road games. Utah is 5-2 in Pac-12, beating Colorado by 16, USC by 22 at home, losing by point to UCLA- they scored 82+ points in last five games. Utah is shooting 59.3% inside arc; they get ball to good places. Pac-12 home favorites of less than 5 points are 3-2 vs spread.

Cal-State Fullerton lost three of last four games, with losses by 5-20-8 points; they’re 1-1 on big West road, beat Cal Poly, losing by 20 in Irvine. Titans are turning ball over 23.9% of time in Big West play. Long Beach State’s last three games were all decided by 5 or less points or in OT; 49ers are 2-1 at home in conference, with wins by 6-5 points. Long Beach is 9-1 in its last ten games with Fullerton, winning last six series games here, by 14-14-20-19-23-13 points. Big West home favorites are 6-11 vs spread this season.

BYU won eight of last ten games but is 2-2 on WCC road, losing at San Diego/St Mary’s; their road wins were by 5-15 points. Cougars are #328 experience team; they’re holding teams to 29.8% on arc. Santa Clara is 3-1 at home in WCC, winning all three non-Gonzaga games by 14-1-28 points. Broncos are 32-77 (41.2%) on arc in last three games. BYU is 12-0 vs Santa Clara in WCC games, winning visits here, by 15-13-10-35-34 points- they also beat Broncos in last two WCC tourneys. WCC road favorites of 6 or less points are 1-2-3 vs spread this season.

Montana is just 5-3 in Big Sky this year, being 86-22 previous six years; they’re 5-3 at home in Big Sky, with wins by 12-21-6 points- they lost to Weber St in OT. Eastern Washington is 5-2 in league, 2-1 on road, losing by 3 at Weber St after wins at Idaho/Idaho St by 7 points each. EWU/Montana split their last six meetings; those six games were all decided by 7 or less points. Eagles are 1-11 in their last 12 visits to Missoula, with last two losses by 5 points each. Big Sky home favorites of 6 or less points are 3-9 vs spread.

Armadillosports.com

NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Virginia Tech at North Carolina

Virginia Tech (15-4, 8-7 ATS) topping ACC bottom dwelling Clemson Sunday take a huge jump in class when they head to Chapel Hill to square off against North Carolina (18-3 11-8-1 ATS) Wednesday night. Hookies with six players in double digits lead by Zach LeDay (16.4) are netting 81.5 points/game on 48.7% from the field, 38.4% from long range. Defensively, Hookies rank 11th in the ACC allowing 72.2 points/game on 43.6% shooting.

Roy Williams' troops lead by Justin Jakson (18.2) and three other players in double digits drop 89.4 points/game shooting 47.5%, 37.4% from long range. Tar Heels are just a shade better at keeping the ball out of their own basket allowing opponents 70.8 per/contest on 40.7% from the field.

The Tar Heels undefeated at home this season reeling off ten straight with a 7-2 ATS record in lined games are tough to topple in front of the home audience. Going back to the beginning of the 2015-16 campaign Tar Heels have won 25 of 26 in front of the home audience going 13-11-1 against the betting line.

Opening odds at BetOnline.ag has Tar Heels laying 14.0 points.

Home court will play a big part in Tar Heels winning this contest. However, covering the huge allotment of points does not bode well for supporters. Tar Heels have struggled at the betting window laying 12.0 or more vs the conference (3-7 ATS) and are a money-guzzling 1-5 against the betting line handing Hookies double digits in Chapel Hill.

Thursday's Elite Eight
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Oregon at Utah

If Utah wins this game, don’t call it an upset. Even though Oregon is ranked in the Top 10 and hasn’t lost since Nov. 21, the Ducks come in as the underdog. This would be similar to Kansas losing at West Virginia, which was termed an “upset” by many but actually wasn’t since the Mountaineers were 3.5-point favorites. What this would be for the Utes is a statement win for a resume short on them. Thus far, they’ve fallen against Butler, Xavier, Arizona and most recently, UCLA, 83-82, last time they took the floor in Salt Lake City. Utah rallied from that setback by posting lopsided wins on the road at the Washington schools and is now back hoping to close strong so they’re not left behind on Selection Sunday. The Ducks opened the season 2-1 without standout guard Dillon Brooks, lost their first game without him and haven’t dropped a game since. He’s had to win a few by himself with late heroics, but is now in danger of missing his second consecutive game due to a sprained right foot. Oregon is among the deepest teams in the country and could still win without him, but the same can’t be said about host Utah without Utah State transfer David Collette, a 6-foot-9 forward who is shooting nearly 64 percent from the field. Collette is battling through concussion protocol, but forms a great frontcourt combo with versatile leading scorer and rebounder Kyle Kuzma (15.3 ppg, 10 rpg). The Utes have gone 7-2 when he’s out there and have been fortified by Collette and SMU transfer Sedrick Barefield, really taking off since they became eligible. Head coach Larry Krystkowiak has been coy about whether Collette will play, but Brooks is likely to participate. Utah is 59-6 at home over its last four seasons, but two of those losses have come at the hands of the Ducks, who have won 10 of the last 11 in the series.

Xavier at Cincinnati

This is only the third Crosstown Shootout where both teams are nationally-ranked, but this would be an emotionally-charged affair even if both were 10 games under .500. One of the nation’s top rivalries is renewed with Cincinnati looking to avoid four consecutive losses against Xavier for the first time ever. It has dropped seven of nine in the series. The Bearcats come in perfect in American Athletic Conference play and haven’t lost since a 75-65 to Butler on Dec. 10. They’ve won 15 of 16, but are just 1-2 against ranked teams. This is a proving ground for Mick Cronin’s team and star point guard Troy Caupain, who has had a great career for the Bearcats that would be marred by not beating the Musketeers. He’ll square off with XU standout Edmond Sumner, a bigger point guard who has bothered him in past meetings. Cincinnati has only reached 60 points once in the last five meetings against Xavier, but has its deepest, most well-rounded offensive team in years. Chris Mack’s squad is led by Sumner and top scorer Trevon Bluiett, both future pros. Free-throw shooting has typically been a factor in this rivalry. Although the Musketeers have three of the top four shooters by percentage, their lead this season is only .695 to .664. Xavier has been an underdog three times this season, losing each time, straight up and ATS.

Virginia Tech at North Carolina

The Tar Heels will look to avoid the same fate that befell the two teams it came into the week tied with atop the ACC since Florida State and Notre Dame caught sound beatdowns. With rival Duke slumping mightily, this is an opportunity to build a lead in the nation’s toughest conference. Virginia Tech will try to generate mismatches with its versatility but comes in extremely vulnerable against UNC’s size. With versatile forwards Zach LeDay and Chris Clarke able to step out and take bigs like Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks and Tony Bradley away from their comfort zone, the Hokies are going to have to execute while overcoming the length and strength that has allowed North Carolina to lead the country in offensive rebounding. The Heels haven’t lost in 2017, the lone ACC team that can say that, averaging 93.3 points in the process. Their scoring average of 89.4 tops the conference and ranks fourth in the country. Five of their last six games have gone over the posted total. Virginia Tech comes off an 82-81 win at Clemson to snap a two-game road losing streak in lead play. The Hokies have surrendered an average of 92.7 points in league contests outside Blacksburg, so it remains to be seen whether they have a prayer of slowing down Carolina, though Buzz Williams has managed to hold it to just 71.5 points through his first two games since taking over at Virginia Tech. Unfortunately, his teams have averaged 61.5 in suffering a pair of losses. The Hokies haven’t beaten North Carolina since 2009, haven’t won in Chapel Hill since ’06 and lost last year’s game at home despite holding the visitors to 3-for-23 3-point shooting.

Indiana at Michigan

The Wolverines and Hoosiers have each hit rough spots in league play, but both have enough juice to easily reach their postseason goals so long as they get rolling. Each team has been playing well. Michigan has won two of three, losing only at Wisconsin. Indiana has captured three straight, coming off a huge win over Michigan State on the strength of James Blackmon’s career-high 33 points. The Hoosiers have survived losing explosive wing OG Anunoby for the season to a knee injury and are currently playing without sophomore Juwan Morgan, who has missed back-to-back games with a foot ailment and is uncertain to play here. Michigan is looking to get back on the right side of .500 and has seen its offense slowed in league play as it has struggled with defense. 6-foot-10 forward DJ Wilson emerged as a huge force in Saturday’s win against the Illini with 19 points, seven boards and five assists and will have to contend with Hoosiers standout big man Thomas Bryant. Both teams have extremely tough schedules ahead, so this is a massive game since each will be on the road this weekend with the Wolverines at Michigan State and IU visiting Northwestern. Indiana went on a 25-0 run in last year’s visit to Crisler Arena, walking out of Ann Arbor with a win.

Nebraska at Northwestern

Since Nebraska opened Big Ten play with impressive wins at Indiana and Maryland and also held up well on the road at Clemson, this could prove to be a very valuable game for Northwestern at home as it looks to continue stacking up its tournament resume. Even though the ‘Huskers have dropped four straight, a run that began in Lincoln on Jan. 8 with a 74-66 loss to these Wildcats, they’ve been in every game, dropping the last two by a single point against Ohio State and Rutgers. Northwestern comes off a two-point win over the Buckeyes and has won four straight, a streak punctuated by its first win in Columbus since 1977. For a team looking to finally reach the NCAAs for the first time, every little bit helps, but this feels like a huge must-win home game on the heels of such a landmark win. A 6-2 start in league play would continue to build on their momentum, while the alternative of splitting with Nebraska to fall to 5-3 would certainly serve as a buzzkill. The Wildcats beat Ohio State despite shooting just 37.5 percent, so they’ll try to get back on track against a team they shot 51 percent against, hitting 11-of-24 3-point shots. Vic Law hit five of his six attempts as NU rode the long ball to rally from a second-half deficit. Law and Scottie Lindsey, who leads the Wildcats in scoring and has taken his game to another level, should be the keys here. Northwestern has covered in four straight, and is already off to its best start in history and looking to win five straight Big Ten games for the first time since 1966. A 6-2 start would be the school’s best since 1944. The Huskers will be playing their fourth game since losing top rebounder and shot-blocker Ed Morrow to a foot injury and wouldn’t be on such a lengthy skid if he were in the lineup.

Louisiana Tech at UAB

The Bulldogs are one game up on UAB and trail only unbeaten Middle Tennessee as they visit Birmingham. While Conference USA will probably end up being a one-bid league, these next 72 hours offer an opportunity for La Tech to open some eyes since it calls for road games against the Blazers and Blue Raiders. Over its last 11 games, it has won nine and dropped just two one-point affairs, covering in six of seven. Forward Erik McCree (17.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg) is among the top forwards in the league and will be going up against William Lee, the reigning C-USA Defensive Player of the Year who averages 2.6 blocks per game. Blazers top scorer Chris Cokley (12.4) and big senior Tosin Mehenti will also be around to contend with McCree, Joniah White and Miami transfer Omar Sherman, so both frontcourts will be heavily involved in this outcome. UAB’s second-leading scorer and rebounder Hakeem Baxter (12.4, 5.8 ) suffered a hyper-extended left knee and is considered day-to-day for this game. The Blazers already lost point guard Nick Norton to a knee injury in the season-opener, so they’re already lacking the depth at guard they were counting on. That sets up well for Louisiana Tech, who has to hope its young backcourt of DaQuan Bracey and Derric Jean continues to hold up well on the road in 2017, where it has gone a perfect 3-0 with wins at Southern Miss, Charlotte and Old Dominion.

BYU at Santa Clara

Because Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are floating out there as massive potential conquests, there’s hope for these two to suddenly get hot and steadily climb into NCAA Tournament at-large contention. Obviously, BYU is the most serious candidate between the two, but the Broncos have won three of four and are feeling good about themselves as they attempt to avenge an 89-59 loss suffered in Provo on Dec. 29. Although Santa Clara was routed by the Zags 88-57 last Thursday, it bounced back against Loyola Marymount on Jared Brownridge’s second buzzer-beater in a four-game span. The Cougars held him to just eight points in a wire-to-wire win that they led by as much as 35. BYU has won 17 straight in this series, including all 13 meetings against the Broncos since joining the West Coast Conference. Eric Mika (20.4 ppg, 9.7 rpg) was just about at his averages in the first meeting, going for 19 and 9, and the Cougars went 9-for-14 from 3-point range to pile on. Santa Clara shot 7-for-31, so getting off to a strong start at home is going to be vital. The 'under' has prevailed in five of seven Santa Clara games and the total ended up a 'push' (148) in the first meeting. Guard Nick Emery (knee) was upgraded to 'probable.'

San Diego at Gonzaga

Given what we’ve seen this week, this game that opened with a 27-point spread beat out a couple of Pac-12 offerings for No. 8 because, well, we’ve seen lot of crazy this week. This is also likely to be the biggest obstacle between the Bulldogs and a No. 1 ranking since the WCC’s last-place team, Pepperdine, is next in town on Saturday. The Zags are already No. 1 in the VI Top 25 despite failing to cover in each of their last two wins over Portland, laying 32.5 in Spokane. The Toreros have actually been solid against the number, covering eight of their last nine as an underdog. Second-year head coach Lamont Smith has already seen USD surpass last season’s win total, but his team was routed 60-43 at home by San Francisco on Saturday. Wing Olin Carter III, the team’s most prolific shooter and forward Juwan Gray both missed that game due to the flu and are scheduled to be back to join leading scorer Brett Bailey, a Spokane native, make a run at the much larger Zags. The size differential will make an upset practically impossible, but Gonzaga head coach Mark Few does have concerns with point guard Nigel Williams-Goss still not 100 percent due to a hip issue and backup forward Killian Tillie dealing with a sprained ankle. Williams-Goss leads Gonzaga in scoring (14.5), rebounds (5.6) assists (4.7) and steals (1.7). Few is 38-4 in his career against San Diego, winning 37 of 40. Gonzaga last lost in this series in 2014, but has won 17 in a row at home, last losing in 2000. The Toreros have never won in the new Kennel.