NCAAB Betting News and Notes Thursday, January 5th, 2017

NCAAB Knowledge

Purdue is 12-3 vs schedule #182; they lost by 7 at Louisville in only true road game this season. Boilermakers lost last game at home in OT to Minnesota, snapping their 7-game winning streak. Purdue is 2-3 vs top 100 teams, beating Notre Dame/Iowa. Home side won last four Purdue-Ohio State games; Boilers lost last four visits to Columbus, by 23-3-18-4 points- they’re 2-7 in last nine series games. Buckeyes split last eight games after a 6-0 start; they’re 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with only win by 5 over Providence.

Davidson won three of four games with George Washington, splitting pair here; they lost 79-69 here LY, have series wins by 2-11-7 points. Wildcats lost four of last six games overall, losing A-14 opener by hoop at home to Richmond; they’re 1-2 in true road games, winning at Mercer, losing at Charleston/UNC. GW has an interim coach this year; they’re 8-6 vs schedule #147, losing last two games to Miami by 8, St Joe’s by 5. Colonials are 2-4 vs top 100 teams, with wins over Temple/Central Florida.

Rice is 11-4 this year, after being 36-89 the last four years; Owls are #279 experience team that has played schedule #287; they lost to Pitt by 10, Texas Tech by 1 in only top 100 games this year. Home side won last three Middle Tennessee-Rice games; Blue Raiders lost in double OT last time they were here, in ’15. MTSU is 3-1 in true road games, winning at Ole Miss, Belmont; they’re #34 experience team that is playing pace #329 (Rice plays pace #63). Rice starts two sophomores and a freshman; they’re shooting 39.6% on arc, have #18 eFG%.

Home side won six of last seven Cal-UCLA games; Golden Bears lost last three visits here, by 14-12-19 points, but they won last two over UCLA, by 2-12 points. Bruins are 8-0 at home, with 14 points the closest of those games. UCLA plays pace #12, is shooting 42.4% on arc (#3), 61.7% inside arc (#1)- they’re 5-1 in top 100 games, winning by 11-7-5-18-13 points. Cal has #8 eFG% defense, holding teams to 41.7% inside arc; they play pace #256 pace, have future NBA player in big man Rabb, so curious to see which team gets tempo they want here.

Northwestern won nine of last ten games, losing last game by 9 at Michigan State; Wildcats are 4-3 in top 100 games, 2-3 in top 50 games- they’ve got #15 eF% defense. Northwestern won five of last six games with Minnesota, winning last three, by 6-25-24 points. Gophers lost six of last seven visits to Evanston. Minnesota split its first two Big 14 games, both in OT, winning at Purdue, losing at Michigan State. Gophers lost only other true road game by 8 at Florida State. Minnesota is 13-2 vs schedule #99, despite being experience team #307.

Nebraska won its first two league games, both on road, at Indiana/Maryland by total of 6 points, after 1-6 skid in December that included a loss to Gardner-Webb. Cornhuskers force turnovers 20.8% of time, shoot only 30.6% on arc. Iowa won its last five games with Nebraska, all by 10+ points; Hawkeyes won two of last three visits here. Hawkeyes won six of last seven games, beating Michigan in OT in last game; Iowa is 0-2 in true road games, losing at Notre Dame by 14, Purdue by 22- they’re #345 experience team in country.

Colorado is 10-4 vs schedule #129; they’re 2-2 in true road games, winning at Portland/Air Force, losing at BYU/Utah. Buffaloes are 7-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with only loss to Colorado State. Colorado won three of last four games with Arizona State, with wins by 9-6-10 points; Buffs lost last three visits to Tempe, by 9-21-6 points. Sun Devils are 1-5 vs top 100 foes, with only win by 11 at a sub-par San Diego State team- they’ve got #305 eFG% defense, are 6-7 in their last 13 games. ASU allowed 87 pts/game in its first two Pac-12 games.

Arizona is somehow 13-2 despite having #325 experience team whose bench plays #294 minutes; they got PG Cartwright back two games ago which greatly helps their depth. Wildcats allowed 57 pts/game in sweeping trip to Bay Area by 5-39 points. Arizona won nine of last ten games with Utah; they lost 70-64 in Salt Lake City LY. Utes lost last four visits to Tucson by 9-3-9-18 points. Utah is 1-2 vs top 100 teams, beating Colorado, losing by 9 to Butler, 8 to Xavier; they split two true road games, winning at Hawai’i, losing at Xavier.

St Mary’s is 12-1 vs schedule #299; they’ve got whole team back from LY, are 2-1 vs top 100 teams, beating Nevada by 18, Dayton by 4 back in November- their only loss was at home to UT-Arlington on Dec 8. Home side won six of last seven BYU-St Mary’s games; Cougars lost four of last five visits here, losing last two by 5-11 points. BYU won its last four games overall, scoring 85 pts/game in winning first two WCC games- they’re #319 experience team but generally have older players, because so many of their players take Mormon missions.

Stanford lost five of last five six D-I games; they lost by 15 at Kansas, 23 at SMU in only two true road games this season. Cardinal gave up 94.5 pts/game in losing pair of home games to the Arizona schools last week. USC was 13-0 before losing by 23 at Oregon in last game; Trojans have played #208 schedule, are #328 experience team- they’re 4-1 vs teams in top 125, with best win by 5 over SMU. Stanford won its last five games with USC, with four of five by 8+ points. Cardinal won 79-71/79-76 in last two games in Galen Center.

Belmont is 7-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with five wins by 8 or less points; they’re 3-1 at home, with only loss to Middle Tennessee. Bruins is #46 experience team that shoots 61.7% inside arc, only 30.3% on arc. Belmont won its last four games with UT-Martin, three by 10+ points; Skyhawks lost 90-53/72-67 in last two visits here. UTM is 3-4 in its last seven games, 4-4 in true road games; they’re turning ball over 22% of time (#316) but are #11 experience team- they split first two OVC games, beating Morehead State in OT last game.

Jacksonville State is 9-7 against schedule #102; this is their first D-I home game of the year (they player a non-D-I home game Nov 22). Gamecocks are much-improved with Harper as its new coach, are 9-7 after being 30-63 the last three years. Murray State is 20-1 in its last 21 games with JSU, winning eight of last nine played here. Racers won last three series games by 9-27-15 points. Murray is 0-6 in true road games, with five losses by 6 or less points or in OT; that includes losses at So Dakota State, Bowling Green, Evansville, Middle Tennessee.

Eastern Washington won five of last six games with Montana State; Bobcats lost last four games here, by 17-4-5-24 points. Eagles are 9-5 vs schedule #124; they won Big Sky opener by 7 at Idaho- they’re 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, are also 4-0 in OT games. Montana State snapped 7-game skid with win over Idaho State in last game; Bobcats are 0-5 in true road games, with four of five losses by 8 or less points. MSU is #298 in experience in a league where most of teams have lot of returning players this season.

Armadillosports.com

Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

California at UCLA

As of early this morning, most betting shops had UCLA (14-1 straight up, 10-5 against the spread) installed as an 11-point favorite.

Steve Alford’s squad is unbeaten at home with a 5-3 spread record. The Bruins took their lone loss of the year last weekend they fell 89-87 at Oregon. Dillon Brooks knocked down a game-winning 3-pointer with 0.8 seconds remaining to lift the Ducks past the nation’s second-ranked squad. It was their 34th consecutive home win and denied UCLA of its best start in a decade. Thomas Welch and Bryce Alford scored 20 points apiece in the gut-wrenching defeat.

UCLA is ranked fourth by the Associated Press but just 24th in the RPI Rankings. The Bruins are 5-1 against the RPI Top-100 and has six wins over Top-150 foes. Alford’s bunch collected its best win on Dec. 3 when it went into Rupp Arena and stunned Kentucky 97-92 as an 11-point road underdog. Six players scored in double figures in Lexington led by Isaac Hamilton’s 19 points. Freshman T.J. Leaf added 17 points, 13 rebounds and five assists.

UCLA has been a double-digit favorite nine times, compiling a 5-4 spread record. The Bruins have failed to cover the number in each of their last three contests, including a pair of double-digit ‘chalk’ situations.

Other quality wins by UCLA include a home scalp of Michigan and neutral-court triumphs over Ohio State, Nebraska and Texas A&M.

UCLA has a nice blend of veterans like Alford and Hamilton, both of whom are seniors. Lonzo Ball and Leaf are both true freshman. Leaf leads the Bruins in scoring (17.5 points per game) and field-goal percentage (65.7%), while Ball (14.3 PPG) has an amazing 121/35 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Ball is also averaging 5.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 1.0 blocked shots per game and is shooting at a 52.5 percent clip. Alford (16.3 PPG, 41.5% 3Pters) and Hamilton (14.7 PPG) provide experience and maturity.

California (10-4 SU, 5-9 ATS) split a pair of home games versus the Arizona schools this past weekend in Berkeley. The Golden Bears started league play by losing a 67-62 decision to Arizona as 2.5-point home favorites. Ivan Rabb posted a double-double with 16 points and 16 rebounds in the losing effort. Jabri Bird added 16 points and seven boards.

Two days later, Cuonzo Martin’s team captured an 81-65 win as an 11.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Rabb was the catalyst, producing 20 points, 15 rebounds, five assists and one blocked shot. Grant Mullins contributed 29 points, four boards and four assists while burying 5-of-8 attempts from 3-point range. Bird finished with 16 points.

Cal has been an underdog just once, losing 56-52 to Virginia as a 2.5-point home ‘dog on Dec. 21.

Cal is ranked No. 90 in the RPI, going 0-3 against the Top 25 and 1-3 versus the Top 100. The Bears posted their best victory at home over Wyoming, 71-61. They’ve lost at home to Virginia and Arizona, in addition to neutral-court setbacks against Seton Hall and San Diego St.

This is Cal’s first true road assignment of the season.

Bird (15.8 PPG) leads Cal in scoring, while freshman point guard Charlie Moore is averaging 15.4 points, 3.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Rabb is averaging a double-double (15.2 PPG, 10.2 RPG).

Totals have been an overall wash (7-7) for the Bears, but they’ve seen the ‘over’ cash at a 4-1 clip in their last five outings.

The ‘over’ is 8-6-1 overall for the Bruins, going 5-2-1 in their home contests.

Brigham Young at Saint Mary’s

As of early this morning, most spots had Saint Mary’s (12-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) listed as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’

Randy Bennett’s team is No. 38 in the RPI Rankings, posting Top-100 wins at Dayton (61-57), vs. Nevada (81-63) and at Stanford (66-51). The Gaels took their only loss at home vs. UT-Arlington by a 65-51 count.

Saint Mary’s has won six in a row since going down against the Mavericks. The Gaels are off a 72-60 non-covering win over San Diego as 22.5-point home favorites. Jock Landale led the winners with 14 points and nine rebounds, while Jordan Ford and Tenner Krebs scored 12 points apiece from off the bench. Krebs hit all four of his launches from long distance, while Ford needed only five minutes of playing time to get into double figures.

Saint Mary’s is 8-1 SU and 2-3 ATS at home.

Saint Mary’s owns a 2-0 spread record in a pair of single-digit favorite situations.

Bennett’s squad is led by Landale, the junior center who leads Saint Mary’s in scoring (17.6 PPG), rebounding (9.6 RPG), field-goal percentage (63.8%) and blocked shots (1.1 BPG). Joe Rahon (7.8 PPG) and Emmett Naar (10.1 PPG) are both dishing out 6.0 APG.

BYU (11-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) has won four in a row and six of its last seven, including an 81-76 win at Loyola-Marymount on New Year’s Eve. However, Dave Rose’s team failed to cover by the hook as a 5.5-point ‘chalk.’ Nick Emery and T.J. Haws led the Cougars with 20 points apiece, while Eric Mika had 17 points and 10 boards despite abysmal 4-of-17 shooting from the field. Yoeli Childs, a true freshman forward, contributed 15 points and eight rebounds.

BYU has been an underdog twice, going 0-2 both SU and ATS in neutral-court defeats vs. Illinois (75-73) and vs. Southern Cal (91-84).

Mika, who averaged 11.8 points and 6.4 RPG in 2014 before going on a two-year Mormon mission, is back for his sophomore campaign. To date, the 6’10” forward is averaging 20.2 points and 8.9 rebounds per game. Emery is scoring at a 15.7 PPG clip and has a team-best 29 steals. T.J. Haws, the younger brother of BYU legend Tyler, went on a two-year Mormon mission after leading his high school to four state championships. As a true freshman, Hawks is averaging 13.3 PPG, drilling 41.0 percent of his 3-balls and has a 54/35 assists-to-turnovers ratio. L.J. Rose, a grad transfer from Houston, where Rose was a member of the Phi Slamma Jamma teams of the 1980s, has handed out a team-high 81 assists while committing just 28 turnovers.

BYU is No. 109 in the RPI Rankings based on just a pair of quality wins vs. Colorado (RPI: #63) and vs. Princeton (RPI #136). The Cougars took their losses at home vs. Utah Valley and in neutral-court contests vs. Illinois, Southern Cal and Valpo.

BYU suffered a huge loss in mid-December when senior forward Kyle Davis went down with a season-ending injury. Davis was averaging 8.8 points and 4.0 rebounds per game through the first 10 contests. Also, the Cougars won’t have Elijah Bryant on Wednesday night. Bryant, a transfer who averaged 14.2 PPG for Elon last season, injured his knee in late November and isn’t expected to return until later this month. Through BYU’s first five games, Bryant was averaging 6.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.6 APG.

The ‘under’ is 8-3-1 for BYU, but the ‘over’ cashed in its lone previous road outing.

The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for the Gaels, 3-3 in their home outings.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Butler knocked off previously-unbeaten and top-ranked Villanova last night by a 66-58 count as a 1.5-point home underdog at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

South Carolina star Sindarius Thornwell returned from a seven-game suspension to help Frank Martin’s team knock off Georgia 67-61 last night at Stegeman Coliseum in Athens. The Gamecocks won outright as 2.5-point underdogs. Duane Notice’s 3-pointer at the first-half buzzer gave USC a 36-34 lead going to intermission, hooking up USC supporters on first-half wagers as a one-point underdog. Thornwell finished with 19 points, 11 rebounds, six steals and three blocked shots. P.J. Dozier had a team-best 24 points to go with seven boards and five assists. In the losing effort, UGA senior point guard J.J. Frazier had 15 points, five rebounds, four assists and two steals, but he committed six turnovers and made just 3-of-10 from the field and 1-6 from downtown. Yante Maten scored a team-high 18 points and pulled down 10 boards, but he also committed six turnovers and hit only 4-of-12 from the floor.

Duke Grayson Allen’s indefinite suspension ended after only one game. The junior guard returned to the starting lineup last night at home vs. Ga. Tech. Allen had 15 points and seven assists compared to just one turnover. The Blue Devils had seven players in double figures led by Jayton Tatum’s 19 points.

Tevin Mack scored 27 points to pace Texas to an 82-79 win over Oklahoma St. as a one-point home underdog.

Baylor, the nation’s second-ranked team, stayed undefeated with a 65-63 non-covering home win over Iowa St. as a nine-point favorite. Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. had 15 points and eight rebounds for the Bears.

Nevada beat San Diego State for the first time since 1999 when it captured a 72-69 win as a two-point home favorite last night in Reno. The Wolf Pack improved to 13-3 overall and 2-1 in Mountain West action.

As of early this morning, Northwestern was installed as a 3.5-point home favorite for tonight’s Big Ten tussle vs. Minnesota. The Gophers own a 2-0 spread record with one outright win in a pair of games as ‘dogs. They won at Purdue their last time out by a 91-82 score as 14-point puppies.