NCAAB Betting News and Notes Thursday, March 2nd, 2017

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Marshall won its last seven games with Rice, winning last four played here, by 14-11-1-14 points. Thundering Herd lost five of its last eight games overall, is 5-2 at home in conference, 5-1 vs spread as home favorites- they allowed 86+ points in last three games. Rice won seven of its last eight games; they’re having best season in since 2004. Owls won last four road games, are 0-2 as a road underdog- favorites covered six of their seven C-USA road games. C-USA home favorites of 3 or less points are 8-4-1 vs spread this season.

Cincinnati lost twice in its last five games after starting season 22-2, scoring 51-49 points in last two losses; Bearcats are 8-0 at home in AAC, 4-3-1 vs spread as home favorites- they won 67-58 at Houston Jan 7; Bearcats made 10-24 on arc, but shot 36.4% inside arc. Cougars won seven of last eight games, are 6-2 on AAC road- they won last three road tilts. Cincinnati is 6-1 in AAC games with Houston, winning all three played here, by 11-13-11 points. Single digit home favorites are 17-12-1 vs spread in AAC games this season.

Old Dominion won/covered their last four games; they’re 4-3 on C-USA road, 0-2 as a road favorite. Texas-El Paso won its last five games, is 11-0 vs spread in its last 11 games; they’re 6-1 at home in C-USA, covering last five home games- five of their seven conference home games were decided by 4 or less points. UTEP is 2-1 vs Old Dominion in C-USA meetings; Monarchs lost 62-47 in last visit here couple years ago. C-USA road favorites of 3 or less points are 7-3 against the spread this season.

Arkansas State lost three of last five games, losing last two road games by 4-6 points; Wolves are 3-4 on Sun Belt road, 3-0 as road underdogs. Dogs covered six of their seven Sun Belt tilts. Troy State is 4-3 at home in Sun Belt, 3-2 as home favorites; they lost last two games overall. ASU beat Troy 82-80 at home Jan 21, in game where both teams made more than half their 3’s. ASU is 4-3 vs Troy in Sun Belt meetings, losing by 10-10 points in their last two visits here. Sun Belt home favorites of 3 or less points are 7-8 against the spread.

Colorado won seven of last nine games after starting 0-7 in Pac-12; Buffs won their last five home games- they’re 2-3 vs spread as home favorites. Stanford lost six of last nine games, is 2-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 16-14-17-11-7-6 points, with a win in Corvallis. Colorado won 81-74 at Stanford Feb 2, their 7th straight win over the Cardinal. Buffs survived 23 turnovers (-11), shot 63% inside arc. Stanford lost its last three visits to Boulder, by 21-6-16 points. Pac-12 home favorites of 6 or less points are 9-10 vs spread this season.

Wisconsin lost four of last five games, is 6-1 at home in Big 14, 4-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 20-23-4-27-5-11 points- they lost to Northwestern. Iowa won its last two games, but is 1-6 vs spread as a road underdog, losing away games by 22-3-35-12-12-11 points, with wins at Rutgers, Maryland. Badgers won last six games with Iowa, winning last three played here, by 4-4-32 points. Iowa plays fastest tempo in Big 14, Wisconsin plays second-slowest tempo. Double digit home favorites are 12-9 vs spread in Big 14 games this season.

Minnesota won its last seven games (6-1 vs spread); they’re 4-3 as a home favorite; they’re 3-2 in OT games in conference this season. Nebraska lost 10 of last 13 games, are 4-3 as a road underdog, losing away games by 6-1-12-11-16 points- they won at Indiana/Maryland/Ohio State. Huskers won four of its last five games with Minnesota; home teams won last seven series games. Huskers lost last three visits to Twin Cities, by 12-19-18 points. Single digit home favorites are 33-30-1 vs spread in Big 14 games this season.

Utah lost its last three games, last two by a single point; Utes are 5-2 at home, 3-2 as home favorites- their home losses were to UCLA, Oregon. Cal lost three of last four games; they’re 3-4 on Pac-12 road, 1-2 as road favorites. Bears beat Utah 77-75 in double OT at home Feb 2, in game where teams shot combined 11-42 on arc. Utes are 5-2 in last seven series games, winning by 15-9 points in last two played here. Bears turn ball over 19.1% of time, #11 in Pac-12. Pac-12 home favorites of 3 or less points are 3-7 vs spread this season.

MVC tournament, St Louis
Evansville won five of last seven games after starting 1-10 in Valley. Indiana State lost three of last four games; they’re 1-8 away from home in the Valley. Purple Aces won four of last six games with Indiana State; they led at half in both meetings this year, by 7-10 points, but teams split wth home side winning both. which were decided by total of 3 points. Aces were just 1-5 on arc for game in 65-63 win five days ago. Indiana State is 4-2 in its first MVC tourney games the last six years; Evansville is 3-2 the last five years.

Bradley won its last three games after starting 4-11 in MVC play; they lost last 10 times they scored less than 72 points, are 6-0 last six times they scored 72+. Drake held six of last nine opponents under 72 points, but lost all nine games; MVC teams shoot 52% inside the arc against the Bulldogs Braves won four of last five games with Drake; they swept the Bulldogs this year, winning 79-72 at home Feb 4, then 82-74 at Drake on Saturday. Bradley is 1-5 in MVC tourney games the last five years; Drake is 2-6 the last eight years, 0-3 the last three.

MAAC tournament, Albany
Quinnipiac lost its last six games after starting out 7-7 in MAAC; Bobcats shot 30.2% on arc, worst in league- they swept Niagara this year, winning 81-78 on road Jan 2, after trailing by 12 with 5:22 left; then they led 44-16 in 89-81 home win Feb 4. Bobcats are 9-2 vs Niagara in MAAC games. Purple Eagles lost their last five (3 of 5 were at home) and 8 of last 10 games; Niagara is 3-3 in last six MAAC tourneys; they lost first tournament game in triple OT LY. Quinnipiac is 1-3 in its first three MAAC tournaments.

Canisius hammered Marist 91-58 Jan 14, making 14-30 on arc, then lost rematch 76-74 11 days ago- Red Foxes shot 73% inside arc, survived 22 turnovers (-8 ) in game Griffins led by 6 at the half. Canisius is 14-5 in its last 19 games with Marist. Griffins lost their last three games, but won three of last four road games. Red Foxes won two of last three games after starting MAAC play at 3-14. Canisius forces turnovers 22% of time, best in MAAC. Marist is last in four of nine defensive metrics. Marist is 1-4 in last four MAAC tourneys; Canisius is 2-6 in its last six.

Rider won its last three games, scoring 98.3 pts/game to even its MAAC mark at 10-10. Broncs won by 18 at Iona, an eye-opener. Home side won both Manhattan-Rider games; Jaspers won 76-73 Dec 3, then lost 93-82 in Broncs’ Zoo 8 nites ago. Rider won four of last six games overall with Manhattan. Jaspers lost 10 of last 13 games, two of the three wins were by one point. MAAC opponents shot 42% on arc against them this season. Manhattan is 9-2 in last four MAAC tourneys, winning it in ’14, ’15; Rider is 2-5 in last five MAAC tourneys.

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Trends to Watch - Thursday
VegasInsider.com

Houston Gonna Have Problems?

Cincinnati plays host to Houston in the Queen City on Thursday night. The Cougars have really struggled against the number, going 5-11 ATS in their past 16 against teams with a winning overall record, 1-4 ATS in their past five as a road underdog and 0-5 ATS in their past five overall as an underdog. The last time they met the Bearcats they were turned back by a 67-58 score at home on Jan. 7, failing to cover as a 2 1/2-point underdog.

The Bearcats have also struggled against the number lately, going 1-5 ATS in their past six games overall. However, they have won three of their past four and 18 of their past 20 games overall. Cincinnati is a solid 5-2 ATS in their past seven at home against teams with a winning road mark, but they're just 1-5 ATS in their past six league games and they're 0-5 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall record.

Bettors have been cashing at the window with Houston 'over' results lately, as the total has gone over in seven in a row for the Cougars. However, the first meeting went well under the total of 132. The over is also 10-1 in Cincinnati's past 11 games at home, although the under is 37-14 in their past 51 at home against teams with a winning road mark.

Wisky Rebellion

Wisconsin welcomes Iowa to Madison, as the reeling Badgers look to get back on track. Wisconsin took it on the chin in a pair of road games at Ohio State and Michigan State last week, losing both outings by 10 points. They were favored in each, but probably shouldn't been considering how they have struggled. Wisky is 1-4 SU over their past five games, and 1-6 ATS over their past seven outings.

Home should get the Badgers rolling again. They're 15-1 SU at Kohl Center this season, and a respectable 8-4 ATS in their past 12 in front of the home fans. On the flip side, the Hawkeyes have struggled on the road recently. While they topped an equally struggling Maryland team last time out on Saturday, Iowa is just 2-7 SU/ATS over the past nine true road games. Over their past 16 road games Iowa has managed a dismal 4-12 ATS showing.

While the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series, and the underdog has connected in eight of the past 10 meetings, the Hawkeyes are 0-4 ATS in their past four tries against the Badgers. Total bettors might want to look to the 'over', which is 7-2 in the past nine meetings. The over is also 7-2 in Iowa's past nine against teams with a winning straight up record and 10-2 in Wisconsin's past 12 against teams with a .500 record or better.

Big MAAC

The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) gets underwa and there are some good games on the board.

In the 8-9 matchup in Albany it will be Niagara and Quinnipiac do battle in what Vegas figured to be a coin-flip game. But is it? The Bobcats of QU swept the Purple Eagles for two of their 10 wins overall, including an 89-81 victory in the most recent meeting Feb. 4. While the Bobcats are 0-5-1 ATS over their past six, they're 2-0 ATS in two meetings with Niagara this season.

In the 7-10 game, Canisius is favored by 7 1/2 points to oust Marist. The Golden Griffins dropped a tough one in Poughkeepsie against the Red Foxes just last Sunday, 76-74. However, Marist was no match for Canisius in the first meeting, losing 91-58 in Buffalo. Canisius is just 5-8 ATS in 13 games since that blowout win while Marist is a respectable 3-1 ATS in their past four, all as underdogs.

In the 6-11 battle, Rider is favored by six to send Manhattan packing. The Broncs roll into Albany on a three-game winning streak, including a 93-82 win over the Jaspers in the most recent meeting on Feb. 22. The teams split a pair of meetings, as the Jaspers were victorious back on Jan. 13 at home by a 76-73 score. Rider enters 5-1-1 ATS over their past seven with the 'over' going 4-0 in the past four. The Jaspers are just 2-7 ATS over their past nine, and the over is 3-1 in their past four outings.

Southern Comfort

UNC-Asheville battles Campbell in 2-7 matchup in Rock Hill, S.C. in the Big South Conference Quarterfinals. The Bulldogs swept the season series by an average of 14 1/2 points. The Camels won their opener against Presbyterian by an 81-62 score, covering a 13-point number, but they're on the opposite side of that number in this one. UNCA is favored by 12 1/2 points as of early Thursday morning.

Top-seed Winthrop hosts Charleston Southern, and the Eagles are expected to soar. They swept the Buccaneers, winning in the Low Country by 16 points on Dec. 29, 2016, and by 14 points in the Upstate on Feb. 23. Meanwhile, Top-seed Liberty takes on Radford, and they're favored by four. The Flames swept the Highlanders in the regular season, winning by an average of five points. However, the meeting at Radford required overtime.

Sunny Skies

Top seed Florida Gulf Coast hosts 5-seed Kennesaw State in Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Semifinals action. #DunkCity has held steady as a 12-point favorite over the Fighting Owls, who edged 4-seed USC-Upstate by a bucket in the opening round. The Fighting Owls played the Eagles fairly tough, falling by 12 on Feb. 11 in Naples and just by three in a home game on Jan. 12.

In the 2-3 matchup, Lipscomb meets North Florida, and the 20-win Bison are favored by nine points over the Ospreys of UNF. North Florida enters four games under .500, but they have won three of their past four outings, including a 11-point confidence-building win at Lipscomb on Feb. 16. In fact, UNF swept the two-seed this season in two regular season meetings, winning by an average of 8.5 points.

Struggling Wisconsin hosts Iowa
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox,com

#22 Wisconsin looks to avoid a third straight loss when they host Iowa in a Thursday night Big Ten tilt.

Wisconsin (12-14 ATS), once neck-and-neck with Purdue for the regular season Big Ten title, has now lost four of their last five games. The Badgers have a tenuous half-game hold on second place in the conference, but five teams are within two losses of Wisconsin heading into the final week of the season. Only the top four teams in the Big Ten get double-byes in the conference tournament next week. Iowa (11-13-2 ATS), unlike Wisconsin, may be peaking at just the right time. Their 83-69 (Iowa +6.5) win at then-#24 Maryland on Saturday pushed the Hawkeyes up to the periphery of being a bubble team should they continue their success this week. At 8-8 in conference play, if they can beat Wisconsin on Thursday they’ll have defeated the top three Big Ten teams (Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland) as well as now-25th ranked Iowa State. Iowa is just 2-7 (2-6-1) on the road, but a double-digit win over a ranked opponent on the road shows how formidable a foe the Hawkeyes can be. Wisconsin is just 1-6 ATS over their last seven contests, which includes their first home loss of the season, 66-59 (WI -11) against Northwestern on Feb. 12. The Badgers are just 6-10 ATS in Big Ten play (4-4 ATS at home in conference play). The OVER is 4-1-1 in Wisconsin’s last six games while, comparatively, the UNDER is 4-2 in Iowa’s last six. Wisconsin has shown recent historical domination over Iowa, taking the last six contests dating back to Feb. 2013. The Badgers have also covered in each of the last four meetings between these two teams, but the Hawkeyes covered six straight (Feb. 2011-Jan. 2014) prior. Wisconsin is just 1-4 ATS at home against Iowa since 2011, as the underdog is 8-2 ATS over the past 10 meetings. While the total has split evenly between OVER and UNDER in the past four meetings, the OVER is 7-2 in the past nine.

Iowa put forth arguably their most impressive all-around performance of the season in Saturday’s road upset of Maryland. Maybe Coach Fran McCaffery’s crew was still riding the adrenaline of their 96-90 (PK) overtime victory over Indiana earlier that week, but the Hawkeyes rode into College Park and shot a scorching 61.5% from downtown (16-for-26). More impressively, Iowa’s big road win over Maryland – in which they scored 83 points – was done without much help from star G Peter Jok (20.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 92% FT), who had just 10 points on 3-for-10 from the field. Jok did have 35 points in the win over Indiana (15 coming in overtime), and registered a game-high 21 points last season against Wisconsin. Prior to the win at Maryland, Iowa’s only other road win was against lowly Rutgers. Two freshmen led the Hawkeyes in their win over the Terrapins as G Jordan Bohannon (9.7 PPG, 4.5 APG, 39.5 3PT) and F Tyler Cook (12.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG) initiated a strong inside-outside assault. The pair combined for 45 points with Bohannon hitting eight threes, and Cook (8-of-13 FG) amassing a double-double. If Jok – the conference’s leading scorer – returns to form and players like Cook and Bohannon keep their strong play going, Iowa is going to be a tough matchup for anyone. Iowa’s defense leaves a lot to be desired (77.7 PPG, 289th in NCAA), and they’ll have to be more vigilant on the glass (39.3 RPG allowed, 328th in NCAA) -- especially against Wisconsin’s talented front line. Iowa does play at the third-fastest pace amongst Power 7 conference schools, so these numbers are somewhat inflated; the Hawkeyes haven’t let an opponent shoot better than 36% from beyond the arc in eight straight games.

Wisconsin’s troubles as of late are showing up on both ends of the floor. The normally stout Badgers defense (62.1 PPG, 10th in NCAA), which holds opponents to just 41% FG (38th in NCAA), has been lit up for 83.5 points per game in their last two losses (Ohio State, Michigan State). The Badgers offense, also not holding up their end of the bargain, has been out-shot (FG%) in each of Wisconsin’s past seven games and the Badgers haven’t eclipsed the 44% FG mark in any of their last eight contests. An aspect of defense that Wisconsin has struggled with all season is defending the three (37.8% 3PT allowed, 308th in NCAA) and Big Ten opposition has feasted on the Badgers’ Achilles heel lately. Coach Greg Gard’s group has allowed four of their last five opponents to shoot better than 41% from downtown, highlighted by Ohio State’s 10-of-16 (62.5% 3PT) performance from distance last Thursday. Iowa drains 8.4 threes per game, so it’ll be interesting to see if Wisconsin can get out to the Hawkeyes shooters and change this narrative. One positive over the last week for the Badgers is that G Bronson Koenig (13.9 PPG) looks healthy again. The previously injured guard erupted for 27 points against Ohio State last Thursday (9-for-15 FG) and gutted through a tough shooting performance to log 38 minutes in a 17-point outing against Michigan State on Sunday. Koenig scored a team-high 15 points (4-of-6 3PT) in last season’s win over Iowa. Unfortunately F Ethan Happ (14.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG), who’s been Wisconsin’s best player all season, has hit a bit of a slump. Happ totaled only 12 points against the Buckeyes and Spartans last week while finding himself in foul trouble in both contests. Happ now has a string of six straight games with 4+ fouls, as teams are attacking the big man in the paint. Wisconsin needs Happ on the floor as six of the Badgers seven losses show Happ with at least four fouls. Senior F Nigel Hayes (13.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) put forth his best Big Ten effort on Sunday against Michigan State (22 points, 11 rebounds, four assists), and may be putting together a strong individual push in his last season wearing the red and white. Hayes’ 22 attempts from the field were a career high, as his aggressiveness also saw the senior go to the line 12 times (converting four). Unfortunately, Hayes has been inefficient and inconsistent, only shooting above 50% from the field once in his past 11 games.