NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, March 30th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Georgia Tech is 12-4 outside ACC; they’re 3-5 vs teams ranked in top 40. Tech lost five of last seven games before 4-0 run in NIT, with two home wins and wins over Ole Miss/Bakersfield. Jackets is #121 experience team that has #19 eFG% defense. ACC teams are 7-15-1 against the spread this postseason, 2-4 if an underdog. TCU is 15-1 outside Big X, with only loss at SMU by 15- they won six of last seven games overall, after losing last seven regular season games. Horned Frogs are 11-13 vs teams in top 75; they’re the #208 experience team that plays pace #234. Big X teams are 12-5-1 vs spread, 10-3 when favored this postseason.
Armadillosports.com
Georgia Tech vs. TCU
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Power programs often look at the NIT as a place they don’t want to be. The premise is understandable and there’s no doubt that it’s a second-string reward to a not-quite-good-enough campaign, so to speak.
With that said, there are a myriad of benefits. For starters, the season continues on, netting extra practice time and game experience, which is obviously valuable for young teams.
If there were two programs that the NIT was a perfect fit for this season, it would have to be the duo that will tangle at Madison Square Garden in the finals on Thursday night in New York City – TCU and Georgia Tech.
Josh Pastner would’ve been fired after last season in Memphis if not for his hefty contract the school couldn’t afford to buy out. Therefore, when Georgia Tech struck out on its first couple of tries to score a replacement for Brian Gregory, he became an interesting candidate.
Pastner won at least 24 games in his first five years at Memphis, going to the NIT in his first season before getting invited to the NCAA Tournament in four consecutive years. However, an 18-14 record followed by a 19-15 mark without invites to the postseason had the natives calling for his job.
Many were critical of the hire, while others took a wait-and-see approach. I was among the latter. After all, Pastner is still just 39 years of age and has a tremendous work ethic that few in the business have ever questioned. Plus, he has seven seasons of being a head coach at a high-profile job under his belt.
Although Georgia Tech hasn’t done much winning in the last quarter-century with the exception of its trip to the national-title game in 2004 thanks to the stellar play of Jarrett Jack, there are many of us that remember fondly the glory days of the Bobby Cremins Era. Between 1985-1993, the Yellow Jackets went to nine consecutive NCAA Tournaments. From ’85 to ’96, they were in the Sweet 16 five times and led UNLV by seven at intermission in the 1990 Final Four before falling to a team that many consider one of the greatest ever.
Cremins recruited with the best of ‘em, bringing to Atlanta the likes of Mark Price, John Salley, Bruce Dalrymple, Duane Ferrell, Tom Hammonds (from? Crestview High School, the same program in Florida that produced 3-point gunners and brothers Joe and Pat Lawrence who played for the Gators in the late ‘80s), James Forrest (the Atlanta Southside HS product who hit the buzzer beater in Milwaukee to beat USC and send the late Al Maguire into a frenzy), Matt Harping and, of course, ‘Lethal Weapon 3’ consisting of Kenny Anderson, Brian Oliver and Dennis Scott.
Those days are long gone, obviously. But you can still win big at Georgia Tech, which is in the ACC and midtown Atlanta. For Pastner to have had this first squad of his on the proverbial bubble in late February was a miraculous accomplishment. Although GT failed to get an NCAA invite, it has to be thrilled to be in NYC with a chance to win the NIT on Thursday.
Likewise, TCU is ecstatic to be in this spot. Jamie Dixon wasn’t on a serious hot seat at Pittsburgh by any means, but he was rightfully feeling unappreciated. During his 13-year tenure with the Panthers, Dixon had taken them to 11 NCAA Tournaments, one Elite Eight (losing a heartbreaker to Villanova), three Sweet 16’s, one NIT and one CBI that they won.
Now, was Dixon unhappy to the point of bolting for one of the nation’s toughest gigs at TCU? I was certainly shocked when I saw the headline, but I had forgotten that he was a TCU alum. Still, the Horned Frogs haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1998 and had not received any sort of postseason invite since 2005. Since joining the Big 12, they had not won more than four league games in their first four seasons.
But when your alma mater calls and offers you a contract worth $3.2 million annually, you listen. And in this case, you take the job if you’re Dixon, who at the age of 50 (now 51) took on a challenge of immense proportions.
Despite its ineptitude on the hardwood over the span of 15-plus years, Dixon has righted the ship already. Like Georgia Tech, TCU was in the bubble conversation in February before a seven-game losing streak to close the regular season ended its NCAA hopes.
As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had TCU (23-15 straight up, 18-18 against the spread) installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 133. The tally opened at 131.5 points. The Yellow Jackets were available on the money line for a +150 payout (risk $100 to win $150).
TCU advanced to MSG in NYC with a home win over Fresno State (66-59), an overtime triumph at Iowa (94-92) and a home win over Richmond (86-68). On Tuesday night in the semifinals, the Horned Frogs captured a 68-53 victory over Central Florida as 2.5-point favorites. The 121 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 132-point tally.
Vladimir Brodziansky led TCU with 18 points, nine rebounds, three assists and one blocked shot. Kenrich Williams enjoyed a dynamite stat line with 14 points, 14 rebounds and seven assists.
We noted the seven-game slide to close the regular season earlier, but TCU has won six of seven games in the postseason while going 5-2 versus the number. The skid was halted with an 82-63 win over Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament’s opening round. Then in the quarterfinals in what was essentially a road game at Sprint Center in Kansas City, the Horned Frogs shocked Kansas with an 85-82 upset victory as eight-point underdogs.
Williams was the catalyst against KU, finished with 18 points, eight rebounds, five assists and four steals before fouling out. Demond Bande added 16 points, five boards and two steals in 21 minutes of playing time from off the bench. Brodzianksy contributed 11 points, six boards and two blocked shots.
TCU’s Big Tourney push was stopped by Iowa State in the semifinals, but the groundwork was laid for an NIT run.
The Horned Frogs have been single-digit favorites 11 times this season, posting a 7-4 spread record.
Georgia Tech (21-15 SU, 20-11 ATS) has been a lucrative money maker for bettors all year long. In fact, the Yellow Jackets are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games dating back to Jan. 12. They have thrived as underdogs, compiling a 14-9 spread record with nine outright victories in 23 such spots.
Pastner’s team owns four wins over teams that made the NCAA Tourney, including Final Four participant North Carolina. The Jackets also posted victories over the likes of Notre Dame, FSU and VCU.
Georgia Tech won its first two NIT games at home by double-digit margins over Indiana (75-63) and Belmont (71-57). Next, the Jackets went to Oxford and knocked off Ole Miss by a 74-66 count as 5.5-point road underdogs. Ben Lammers led the way against the Rebels, producing 20 points, eight blocked shots, four rebounds, four steals and four assists compared to merely one turnover. Josh Okogie scored a game-high 26 points and pulled down seven boards.
On Wednesday in the Big Apple, GT bested Cal-State Bakersfield 76-61 as a three-point ‘chalk.’ The 137 combined points hopped ‘over’ the 124.5-point total. Okogie and Lammers stole the show again. Lammers contributed 15 points, 11 rebounds, five blocks and a pair of steals, while Okogie finished with 22 points, nine boards, two steals, two assists and a pair of rejections. Quinton Stephens added 13 points and nine rebounds.
Okogie averages a team-high 16.2 PPG. The true freshman guard also averages 5.4 rebounds and 1.3 steals while shooting at a 37.5 percent clip from 3-point land. Lammers (14.4 PPG) averages team-bests in rebounding (9.3 RPG), FG percentage (52.7%) and blocked shots (3.4 BPG). The junior center also hands out 2.1 APG and makes 2.1 SPG.
The ‘over’ is 19-17 overall for TCU after cashing in five of its last seven games.
The ‘under’ has been a steady cash producer for the Jackets, going 19-11-1 overall. A 7-1 run for the ‘under’ was halted when the ‘over’ hit Tuesday night.
NIT Championship betting preview: Georgia Tech vs Texas Christian
By Covers.com
Georgia Tech vs Texas Christian (-3.5, 133)
Georgia Tech and TCU put their respective late-season slumps in the rear-view mirror and have a shot at postseason glory when they meet in the NIT title game Thursday in Madison Square Garden in New York. Both squads entertained thoughts of reaching the NCAA Tournament before struggling down the stretch and getting knocked off the bubble, but they've showed plenty of fight in racing to the championship game of this event.
"Playing in the NIT, we were excited," Yellow Jackets coach Josh Pastner told reporters after Tuesday's 76-61 semifinal win over Cal State Bakersfield. "We wanted to keep playing. This is important for our program." The Horned Frogs had perhaps a more difficult turnaround after dropping their final seven games of the regular season, but they are 6-1 ever since after knocking off Central Florida 68-53 in the other semifinal game. Vladimir Brodziansky led the way with 18 points in 22 minutes as TCU advanced to the NIT championship for the first time. Georgia Tech, which was a runner-up in this event in 1971, has won the only two prior meetings with the Horned Frogs, although the programs have not met since 1967.
LINE HISTORY: The Horned Frogs hit the betting board as 3.5-point chalk over the Yellow Jackets and that line hasn’t moved off that number. The total opened at 133 and like the spread has yet to move. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Georgia Tech - F Abdoulaye Gueye (Out, Indefinitely, wrist)
Texas Christian - G Jaylen Fisher (Out For Season, wrist), F Kouat Not (Out For Season)
ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (21-15 SU, 20-11 ATS, 11-19-1 O/U): Freshman guard and leading scorer Josh Okogie scored 22 points in the semis and he is averaging 21.8 to go along with 7.8 rebounds in the tournament. "We definitely had great preparation prior to this game," he told the media. "We had a couple great practices and a great shootaround on being ball tough. I think we did a good job of transitioning that into the game." Junior center Ben Lammers has three double-doubles in the NIT after producing 15 points and 11 boards versus Bakersfield, while senior forward Quinton Stephens has posted 15.5 points per game - five more than his season average.
ABOUT TCU (23-15 SU, 18-18 ATS, 19-17 O/U): Coach Jamie Dixon is 27-15 at Madison Square Garden and is no stranger to title games at the arena, having guided Pittsburgh to the Big East championship in 2008, and he can thank Brodziansky and junior guard Kenrich Williams for a return trip. "I thought Kenrich was terrific the second half," Dixon told reporters after Williams produced 12 of his 14 points after halftime Tuesday night. "He just kind of took over, passing, finishing, offensive rebounding, and you know, that's pretty big. Just let him go do his thing." Williams has a double-double in each of the four NIT games and 18 on the season, while Brodziansky is averaging 19 points and shooting 60 percent over the last three rounds.
TRENDS:
* Yellow Jackets are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Horned Frogs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Yellow Jackets last 6 games as an underdog.
* Under is 8-2 in Horned Frogs last 10 neutral site games as a favorite.
CONSENSUS: 51 percent of the point spread wagers are siding with underdog Yellow Jackets and 67 percent of the totals picks are on the Over.