Pac-12 Conference Tournament Quarterfinals Betting Preview
By Covers.com
The Pacific-12 Conference Tournament is on to the quarterfinal round in Las Vegas. Top seeded Oregon, Utah, Arizona, and UCLA take the floor for the first time during the event after earning opening round byes.
Tournament to be played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Oregon Ducks (-14.5, 154.5)
Arizona State opened tournament play Wednesday by shooting 56 percent from the field and receiving 27 points and 13 rebounds from forward Obinna Oleka in a 98-88 overtime victory over ninth-seeded Stanford. The game marked the highest-scoring contest in Pac-12 tournament history, and fans can expect another up-tempo affair Thursday as the Sun Devils face an Oregon team that ranked third in the league in scoring at 79.2 points per game. The Sun Devils boast three of the top 12 scorers in the league in Torian Graham (18.2), Tra Holder (16.7) and Shannon Evans II (15.2), who erupted for 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting in last month’s one-point loss to Oregon. Coach Bobby Hurley’s five starters accounted for 96 of the team’s 98 points in the first-round win over Stanford, so fatigue could be a factor against the rested Ducks.
Oregon was tested by the Sun Devils on Feb. 2 in Eugene before Pac-12 player of the year Dillon Brooks took over in the final three minutes and pushed the Ducks to a 71-70 victory. Brooks averaged 17.9 points in conference play to lead the Ducks, who enter the tournament on a six-game winning streak but know they need to win the title to secure a top seed in the NCAA Tournament’s West region. “The West is going to be decided on who wins the Pac-12 tournament,” Brooks told reporters. “We want to be that, so we have home fans and a lot of energy. We know what’s at stake, and we’re trying to win out.” Junior forward Jordan Bell was named the league’s defensive player of the year after finishing in the top 10 in rebounding (7.9), steals (1.4) and blocks (2.1), while also scoring a career-best 10.1 points per game on 63 percent shooting.
TRENDS:
* Sun Devils are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
* Ducks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 7-0 in Sun Devils last 7 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.
* Under is 5-1 in Ducks last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
* Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
California Golden Bears vs Utah Utes (-2.5, 130)
California lost five of its final six games of the regular season and received a surprising test in Wednesday’s 67-62 first-round victory over 12th-seeded Oregon State. Sophomore forward Ivan Rabb, who is expected to declare for the NBA Draft after the season, contributed 12 points and 13 rebounds as the Bears allowed Oregon State to shoot 58.8 percent from 3-point range. The Bears edged Utah 77-75 in double overtime at home on Feb. 2 before turning in one of their worst efforts of the season in a 74-44 loss to the Utes in Salt Lake City on March 2. The Bears lead the Pac-12 in scoring defense but were held to a total of 90 points in road losses to Utah and Colorado last week and need more production from senior wing Jabari Bird and freshman point guard Charlie Moore.
Utah closed the regular season with three straight wins but could be without two key players Thursday in guard Devon Daniels (suspension) and forward David Collette (concussion), with both listed as game-time decisions. Junior forward Kyle Kuzma was named to the All-Pac-12 first team after leading the Utes in scoring (16.0) and rebounding (9.6), and his battle with the dynamic Rabb will be a key matchup Thursday. Utah’s lone senior, guard Lorenzo Bonam, scored a career-high 26 points in last Saturday’s 67-59 victory over Stanford as the Utes reached the 20-win mark for the third consecutive season. Bonam ranks third on the team in scoring at 12.7 points for the Utes, who average 78.9 points and lead the league in rebounding margin at plus-7.4.
TRENDS:
* Golden Bears are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.
* Utes are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 4-1 in Golden Bears last 5 vs. Pacific-12.
* Over is 9-1 in Utes last 10 neutral site games.
* Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona Wildcats (-7.5, 138.5)
6-5 senior guard Derrick White had one of his lowest-scoring games of the season in the only meeting between these teams, scoring seven points on 3-for-7 shooting in the 82-73 loss at Arizona on Jan. 7. The Buffaloes got on a roll as the No. 6 seed in 2012 and beat Arizona in the championship game, but their tournament runs have ended with losses to the Wildcats in three of the four years since. Colorado has shown it can still rise up and take down a highly ranked team, beating then-No. 10 ranked Oregon 75-65 on Jan. 28 in Boulder, Colo. Xavier Johnson is another senior who should be inspired to keep his college career alive, and he's coming off back-to-back 19-point, six-rebound games.
Arizona owns the most tournament victories (27) in the 19-year history of the event, but they'll need to beat a confident Colorado team that overcame a 19-point deficit to beat Washington State in the first round. Allonzo Trier is averaging 23.3 points in the past four games for the Wildcats, and the 6-5 shooting guard doesn't possess the wear and tear that many players are feeling this time of the year. Trier was suspended the first 19 games for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug and the tournament opener will be just his 13th game this season. Trier figures to be matched against White, who scored 19 of his 26 points in the second half to spearhead Wednesday's comeback against Washington State. Lauri Markkanen is the player the Wildcats need to be concerned about. He finished below is 15.2 scoring average in eight of the past 10 games and the 7-foot freshman forward is shooting 37.2 percent from the floor in the last nine to drop his season mark to 48.4. Rawle Alkins is another key freshman for Arizona, and the 6-4 guard showed his growth by scoring 11 points and grabbing a season-high 15 rebounds in the regular season finale Saturday against Arizona State.
TRENDS:
* Buffaloes are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win.
* Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 12-3 in Buffaloes last 15 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Southern California Trojans vs UCLA Bruins (-10, 169.5)
The Bruins finished the regular season ranked third in the coaches' poll and defeated every team on their schedule, avenging losses to USC, Arizona and Oregon the second time around. The Bruins lead the nation in points per game (91.3), field-goal percentage (52.6), assists per game (21.7), total assists (674), assist-to-turnover ratio (1.90) and made a school-record 314 3-pointers. UCLA suffered a massive scare when freshman T.J. Leaf had to be helped off the floor eight days ago, but Bruins coach Steve Alford said he "fully anticipates" Leaf will be ready for the Pac-12 tournament quarterfinal Thursday night
The Trojans didn't let a 10-point deficit late in the first half of their first-round game against Washington get them rattled, instead slicing it to two at the half and then passing the Huskies for good with about 17 1/2 minutes to go in the 78-73 victory. USC lost to UCLA on Feb. 18 at Pauley Pavilion 102-70 as Lonzo Ball flirted with a triple-double, putting up 15 points, eight rebounds and eight assists, but before that the Trojans won four in a row in the series. Jordan McLaughlin likely will spend time guarding Ball, and Ball can't relax on defense either, as McLaughlin had another sensational performance in the first round, finishing with 11 points, six assists and no turnovers. In the last four games, the junior point guard is averaging 14.2 points, shooting 50 percent from the floor and has 35 assists with just six giveaways.
TRENDS:
* Trojans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
* Trojans are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Pac-12 Trends and Angles
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No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Arizona State
The Ducks likely didn't mind watching Michael Humphrey knock down the late jumper that sent Stanford into OT against Arizona State, capping a substantial comeback after it trailed all afternoon. The Sun Devils overcame the collapse and imposed their will in the extra five minutes, finishing with a 98-88 win thanks to a 17-point OT. They ended up nearly becoming the second team to get to the century mark in a Pac-12 Tournament, finishing with the third-highest total in the event's history. They torched the Cardinal in three wins this season, but must now deal with an Oregon defense that has the league's best. After watching ASU's execution, the Ducks shouldn't be caught looking ahead. If they do, they're guilty of short memories, since a flat effort nearly resulted in the end of their now 42-game home-winning streak on Feb. 3 in a 71-70 win over the Sun Devils. Sure, they were guilty of looking ahead to an Arizona game where they clobbered the 'Cats, but Arizona State would've prevailed if Dillon Brooks hadn't come to the rescue with 12 straight points down the stretch, erasing a deficit with 1:32 remaining. ASU could be dangerous to Oregon's hopes of earning a No. 1 seed if Obinna Oleka follows up Wednesday's career game (27 points, 13 rebounds) with a big night. He was just 2-for-11 in Eugene and wrestled with foul trouble. Totals on ASU's games have been set at over 150 points in 15 of the last 17. The over has prevailed in the last four Ducks games. Projection Oregon 85 Arizona State 72
No. 4 Utah vs. No. 5 California
Even though the Utes are the higher-seeded team here, the Bears are higher up on the bubble totem pole. Neither resume currently looks good enough to get in, so both need to survive this and find a way into the Pac-12 final to have a chance at an at-large. Besides breaking out of a run where it lost five of six contests, Cal didn't do a lot to help its case by struggling with last-place Oregon State. Its' 67-62 win came woefully short of covering the 14-point spread, continuing an unispiring run. The Utes did close the season on a three-game winning streak, which included a 74-44 conquest of Cal in Salt Lake City on Saturday. Even if there weren't bubble implications, you would think the Bears would be interested in this rematch simply for personal pride. The win was Utah's largest over the Bears since 1940 thanks to a 34-10 first-half run caused by Cal's complacency in settling for jumpers and not defending. The Bears were held to season lows in every offensive category you can think of and then went out and scored 46 in a loss at Buffalo. Cal's Ivan Rabb will again have to deal with Kyle Kuzma and David Collette, who held him to 0-for-3 shooting in the loss. Rabb, a 6-foot-11 potential lottery pick, recorded his seventh double-double over the last 10 games against the Beavers, while scoring wing Jabari Bird, who shot 2-for-7 against the Utes, led the way with 20 points. Maybe they'll have a pulse this time. These schools met in last year's semis in a game that the Utes pulled out in OT behind current Toronto Raptors lottery pick Jakob Poeltl. The under has prevailed in five of Cal's last eight, but a streak of three straight was snapped on Wednesday. The under is 5-2 in Utah's last seven. Projection Utah 67 California 65
No. 2 Arizona vs No. 7 Colorado
When these schools met in last year's quarters, this was the 4-5 game, so it's evident what directions these programs have headed in. Arizona is playing to try and get on the national 1-seed line in the NCAAs. The Buffs barely got here, putting the inconsistency that has been on display all season right back out there in case anyone had missed it. They trailed Washington State by as many as 19 points before rallying in the second half and pulling away behind seniors Derrick White and Xavier Johnson, who combined for 45 points. White will definitely test the Arizona guards, looking to make up for a 3-for-7 night in the only meeting against the 'Cats this season back on Jan. 8. Coming off a 35-point night at ASU, the Pac-12's second-leading scorer was shut down by Kadeem Allen, who scored 18 points, hit all three of his 3-point shots and didn't commit a turnover in outplaying one of the Pac-12's best. Allen is among the league's top defenders, but typically not as efficient a ballhandler or shooter. He missed a couple of games with a dislocated pinky but has since returned for his full workload. Allonzo Trier was still ineligible when these teams squared off, but has since been reinstated and is playing his best ball of the season, averaging 23.3 points over his last four games. He'll be a major factor alongside special 7-foot freshman Lauri Markkanen, who helped supply the offense for the 82-73 win by shooting 5-for-6 on 3-pointers. Suspended Buffs freshman guard Bryce Peters remained sidelined in the first game of this tournament. The under has connected in five of the last six Arizona games. Projection Arizona 77 Colorado 67
No. 3 UCLA vs. No. 6 USC
When these neighbors last squared off, the Bruins blew off some steam. UCLA hung a 102-70 rout on the Trojans at Pauley Pavilion, piling on down the stretch with alley-oops, Showtime-style. Lonzo Ball was on the business end of the exclamation points in a win that ended a four-game losing streak against Southern Cal. Included in that run came last year's Pac-12 Tournament first round game where the Trojans exhibited little sympathy in a 95-71 win. Times sure have changed. Behind freshmen Ball and T.J. Leaf, the Bruins haven become one of the nation's top teams and undeniably the most prolific on the offensive side of the ball, where they average 91.3 points per game. The Trojans did already catch them once, beating UCLA at its own game by hitting 14 3-pointers in a 84-76 home upset that remains the bright spot on their at-large resume. Ball committed seven turnovers, while Leaf and senior Bryce Alford combined to shoot 5-for-17. This would be an immense win for the Trojans, and not just because it would wrap up an NCAA bid. Eliminating Ball from what will be his lone Pac-12 Tournament in a year where the Bruins have taken over the city and dwarfed the strides USC has made under Andy Enfield would eternally give them scoreboard, so there's that. Jordan McLaughlin, a sophomore who was USC's big fish when he arrived on campus, must have a strong performance if the Trojans are to notch this upset. It picked up a third straight under in the first round, but the over is 6-1 in USC's last seven games not played against the Huskies. UCLA has seen the under connect in seven of its last eight, with the lone outlier coming thanks to surpassing the century mark against USC. Projection UCLA 84 USC 76