NCAAB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, December 6th, 2016

NCAAB Knowledge

Hofstra was 28-33 on foul line in 89-83 win at St Bonaventure LY but Pride was #22 experience team LY, they’re #126 this year and still not real deep. Hofstra won its last four games, despite allowing 86-80 points in road wins at Columbia/FAU. This is Hofstra’s first top 100 game; they’ve played schedule #301. Bonnies are #98 experience team that is forcing turnovers 22.7% of time; they’ve won last four games- this is their first true road game. A-14 favorites are 12-6 away from home; CAA underdogs are 14-8 vs spread, 1-2 at home.

Central Michigan won 89-77 at Green Bay ten days ago, after being down by 8 with 15:03 left; Chippewas were 14-36 on arc, 14-39 inside arc. Central is 7-2, 2-2 vs teams in top 150- they scored 87.3 pts/game in last three games. Green Bay won by point at Toledo Saturday, its first win in five top 200 games; Phoenix split four true road games; they’re shooting 29.4% inside arc (#320). Horizon road underdogs are 12-12 vs spread; MAC home favorites are 4-10 against the spread.

Northeastern is 2-4 since they upset UConn, with all four losses by 4 or less points, but three losses came to teams outside top 200; they beat Harvard 80-71 at home LY, after losing to the Crimson the two years before that. Huskies lost by 3 at Cornell, Harvard’s Ivy rival. Harvard is #344 experience team that is turning ball over 24.1% of time; they’re 1-4 vs D-I teams, with only win over Fordham. Crimson is starting three frosh and a sophomore. CAA road underdogs are 10-5 vs spread; Ivy League home favorites are 2-5.

Rhode Island lost road games last week by 3 at Valparaiso, 3 at Providence; URI needs some wins to build its NCAA resume- one of those two would’ve helped. Rams lost 71-65 at Old Dominion LY- they shot 35% from floor. ODU is 6-2 vs schedule #79 with only losses to LSU, Louisville on neutral floors; Monarchs are 0-2 vs top 100 teams- their best win was over #110 Richmond by 3. OSU has the #343 eFG%, really bad. C-USA road underdogs are 17-11 vs spread; A-14 home favorites are 10-24 vs spread.

Charlotte is 6-2, winning at Elon, losing by 22 at Davidson in only two true road games; they won last three games, all at home. 49ers start three seniors, two sophs- they’re playing pace #30. Wake Forest is 6-0 vs teams outside top 100 with five wins by 12+ points; Deacons are 3-0 at home, winning by 12-20-21 points- their only two losses were to top 50 teams. Charlotte is making 39.2% of its 3’s; they could get killed on boards by an ACC team. C-USA road underdogs are 17-11 vs spread; ACC home favorites are 19-15 vs spread.

Houston is 6-1 but lost its only road game by 19 at LSU, which is also its only top 100 game. Cougars are #45 experience team that has played schedule #325 schedule- they’re #2 in country, making 45.7% of its 3-pointers. Arkansas is #33 experience team; they’re 6-1, with only loss by 14 at Minnesota, its only road game. Hogs have beaten Arlington/Ft Wayne two of the country’s best mid-majors. Arkansas is forcing turnovers 20.8% of the time. AAC road underdogs are 6-7 vs spread; SEC home favorites are 18-19.

Texas is 4-3 and this is their first true road game; Longhorns are 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with only win over Alabama- they lost to Northwestern-Colorado-Arlington. Longhorns lost to Michigan by 6 LY, when Wolverines made 14-25 on arc and scored 1.26 ppp, a huge number. Wolverines are 2-2 vs top 100 teams, losing last one at home to Va Tech after they led by 10 with 8:03 left. Michigan is 359 experience team playing 4th-slowest pace in country. Big X road underdogs are 7-3 away from home; Big 14 home favorites are 19-20.

Pearl Harbor twinbill finds Princeton a long way from home. Tigers are 1-3 vs #11 schedule (all D-I games on road); their only D-I win is over #309 Lafayette, a stiff. Princeton lost by 9 at BYU, 11 at VCU. Cal Bears are thin because of lot of injury issues; they’re 6-1 with only loss to San Diego State in Sacramento, their only top 100 game. Cal isn’t shooting ball well, isn’t deep and they play Seton Hall tomorrow. Princeton’s offense is hard to defend. Ivy League underdogs are 10-11 vs spread; Pac-12 favorites are 9-8 away from home.

Seton Hall is 5-2, 4-0 vs teams outside top 200, with three of four wins by 20+ points. Pirates won by 8 at Iowa in their only true road game. Seton Hall is shooting 57.1% inside arc, only 64.6% on foul line- they start four juniors who won Big East tourney LY. Hawai’i doesn’t leave home until Jan 5; they’re 4-3 vs schedule #350. Rainbows are totally building after winning Big West tournament LY, then going on probation for this season. Big East favorites are 11-9 away from home; Big West underdogs are 13-22 vs spread.

Purdue is 6-2 with losses to Louisville/Villanova both top 10 teams- their best win was over #106 Auburn in Cancun. Boilers have good big men but one of their better guards Albrecht is banged up; still, Purdue is shooting 43.3% on arc (#5). Arizona State plays #52 tempo but doesn’t sub much; they’re 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 19-8-46 (Kentucky) points. Hurley is from Jersey City and this game is in NYC, so he’ll have some support. Big 14 favorites are 6-6 vs spread away from home; Pac-12 underdogs are 6-14.

Pretty good week for Duke’s team; NYC tonight, Las Vegas Saturday. Blue Devils are slowly getting healthier; they’re 3-1 vs top 100 teams, with wins by 10-10-9 points and 2-point loss to Kansas- their first true road game is New Year’s Eve. Florida is 7-1 with four top 100 wins; their loss was by 5 to Gonzaga in Orlando. Gators are forcing turnovers 24.4% of time; curious to see how they do vs young but talented Blue Devils. Florida is #62 experience team. ACC favorites are 17-15 away from home; SEC underdogs are 11-12.

Marshall is #56 experience team playing tempo #5; they’re 0-2 on road, losing by 9 at Eastern Kentucky, by 41 at Ohio State- they’re 5-0 at home, but only top 200 team they’ve beaten is #93 Ohio U. Chattanooga is #2 experience team that forces turnovers 24.4% of time; Mocs are 1-2 vs top 200 teams, losing by 6 to Arkansas State, 40 to UNC- they did upset Tennessee in Knoxville. UTC is shooting only 30% on the arc. SoCon home favorites are 5-1 vs spread; C-USA road favorites are 17-11.

Fort Wayne won’t sneak up on anyone since they beat Indiana last month; Mastodons are 1-2 in true road games, losing by 9 at Arkansas, 18 at Illinois State- they won by 4 at Austin Peay. Fort Wayne is #87 experience team playing #56 tempo; they’re shooting 38.3% on arc, have #54 eFG% in country. Notre Dame is 8-0 and plays Villanova Saturday; Irish have three top 100 wins, by 6-4-14 points- they have #15 eFG%, making 42.9% on arc. Summit League road underdogs are 13-18 vs spread. ACC home favorites are 19-15 vs spread.

Armadillosports.com

Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Arizona State vs. Purdue

As of early this morning, most betting shops had Purdue (6-2 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) installed as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 156.

Purdue is ranked fifth in the nation in 3-point shooting, knocking down 43.3 percent of its launches from behind the line. The Boilermakers are 27th in field-goal percentage (49.5%).

Matt Painter’s team is led by sophomore forward Caleb Swanigan, who is averaging 17.5 points and 11.5 rebounds per game. He’s making 59.5 percent of his shots from the field and 63.6 percent from 3-point range. Isaac Haas, a 7’2” junior center, is averaging 14. 8 points and 4.9 rebounds per contest.

Purdue owns a 3-1 spread record in four games as a double-digit ‘chalk.’ The Boilermakers are off a 90-56 win over Morehead State on Saturday as 19.5-point home favorites. All five starters were in double figures led by freshman guard Carsen Edwards, who had 16 points and five assists. Swanigan added 13 points, nine rebounds and six assists compared to just one turnover.

Arizona State (5-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) bounced back from a 115-69 loss to Kentucky in the Bahamas by blasting UNLV 97-73 as a seven-point home favorite. Shannon Evans, a transfer from Buffalo who followed Bobby Hurley to Tempe, led the Sun Devils with 28 points, five rebounds and four assists. He knocked down 5-of-8 attempts from downtown. Torian Graham, another former Bull who came to ASU with Hurley, had 22 points, five boards and three assists against the Runnin’ Rebels. Junior guard Tra Holder finished with 20 points on 4-of-6 shooting from beyond the arc.

ASU played three games in Orlando at the Tire Pros Invitational, losing twice. The Sun Devils took an 82-63 beatdown from No. Iowa in the first round before bouncing back to beat Tulane, 80-71. They failed to cover as 10-point favorites against the Green Wave. Finally on Nov. 20, Davidson beat ASU 68-60 as a three-point favorite.

ASU is 0-2 both SU and ATS an underdog so far this season.

Hurley’s team is led by Holder, who is averaging 18.5 points per game. Graham (17.2 PPG) is hitting 42.4 percent for 3-point land and is making 91.7 percent of shots from the free-throw line. Evans (17.0 PPG) has a 37/19 assists-to-turnovers ratio and has been good on 42.6 percent of his launches from downtown.

The ‘over’ is 6-2 overall for the Sun Devils after cashing in their last three outings.

The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for Purdue.

Tip-off on ESPN is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Florida vs. Duke

These schools haven’t met since the Sweet 16 of the 2000 NCAA Tournament when Florida rolled to an 87-78 win as a 4.5-point underdog. The fifth-seeded Gators took out No. 1 seed Duke behind 15 points from freshman point guard Brett Nelson. Mike Miller had 10 points and nine rebounds at the Carrier Dome, where UF would smash Oklahoma State and Doug Gottlieb two days later on its way to the national-title game. Just 15 months before when Miller, Udonis Haslem and Teddy Dupay were freshmen, Duke pounded UF by a 116-86 count as a 20.5-point favorite.

As of early this morning, most books had (Duke 8-1 SU, 4-4 ATS ) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 139.5.

Duke has been dealing with injuries galore all season. Mike Krzyzewski’s club still hasn’t had freshman Harry Giles yet due to a knee injury that’s had him out for an entire year. Giles, who is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, practiced against contact for the first time on Dec. 2. Nevertheless, most indications are that he’s another week or two away from playing. Two other elite freshmen, center Marques Bolden and forward Jayson Tatum, just made their collegiate debuts.

With Bolden and Tatum available, Coach K gave Grayson Allen (ankle) and freshman guard Frank Jackson the night off in Saturday’s 94-55 win over Maine as a 37.5-point home favorite. Luke Kennard led the way with 35 points and eight rebounds on 11-of-16 shooting from the field. Kennard hit 4-of-9 from 3-point range. Amile Jefferson produced 20 points, nine boards, four assists, two steals and two blocked shots. Tatum played 20 minutes, contributing 10 points and eight boards. Bolden logged 12 minutes of action, finishing with seven points, five rebounds and one block.

Coach K has led Duke to a 28-10 record in 38 career games at MSG during his tenure. The Blue Devils were at this venue on Nov. 15 when they took their only defeat of the year, losing 77-75 to Kansas as two-point favorites. Kennard had 22 points, five boards and five assists in the losing effort. Allen scored 12 points but was 4-of-15 from the field. Jefferson had 12 points but committed seven turnovers before fouling out.

Duke has a quality home win over Michigan State (78-69) and quality neutral-court scalps over Rhode Island (75-65) and Penn State (78-68).

Florida (7-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) is leaving the Sunshine State for the first time. The Gators are No. 3 in the RPI Rankings based on their stellar strength of schedule that’s ranked 10th in the nation. They’ve played various games in Jacksonville, Lakeland, Orlando and Tampa.

Florida has excellent wins over Seton Hall, Miami and St. Bonaventure, in addition to better-than decent victories over Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast, a pair of mid-major programs that have recently won games during the NCAA Tournament. The Gators took their only loss against Gonzaga (77-72) in a game they led at halftime.

Mike White’s team is coming off a 91-60 win at North Florida in a non-lined affair in Jacksonville last Thursday. Chris Chiozza led the way with 16 points, nine assists, four rebounds, three steals and only one turnover. Justin Leon drained three 3-pointers in a 13-point effort, while Canyon Barry had 12 points and four rebounds off of the bench.

Florida has excellent size and athleticism. UF ranks 14th nationally in forcing turnovers and is eighth in blocked shots. The Gators are deep with seven players averaging at least 6.8 points per game. KeVaughn Allen, a true sophomore 2-guard from Arkansas, leads the team with a 12.4 PPG average. Canyon Barry, a senior grad transfer who is the youngest son of NBA legend Rick Barry, is scoring at a 12.1 PPG clip.

Florida junior center John Egbunu has a team-high 19 blocks through eight games. He’s averaging 9.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Devin Robinson, a true junior who provides length and hops, is averaging 11.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game while shooting at a 54.8 percent clip.

The ‘under’ is 4-2 overall for UF.

The ‘under’ is 7-1 overall for Duke. Going back to last season, the Blue Devils have seen the ‘under’ go 20-6 in their last 26 games.

Tip-off is scheduled for 30 minutes after the conclusion of the opener on ESPN.