NCAAB Betting News and Notes Tuesday, January 3rd, 2017

NCAAB Knowledge

Tennessee is 8-5 vs schedule #23; they won SEC by 10 at Texas A&M. Vols are #330 team in experience that is 2-5 vs top 100 teams, beating A&M, East Tennessee State- they’re forcing turnovers 22.1% of time (#37). Arkansas beat Tennessee twice LY, by 18-10 points after having won 8 of previous 10 series games. Razorbacks lost five of last six visits to Knoxville, with four of five losses by 7+ points. Arkansas had won 8 in row before losing SEC home opener by 9 to Florida; Hogs are 3-2 vs top 100 teams- they lost by 14 at Minnesota in only true road game.

Florida is 10-3 vs schedule #9, winning at Arkansas by 9 in SEC opener. Gators are experience team #72; they’re forcing turnovers 22.8% of time (#25). Florida beat Ole Miss twice LY by 9-5 points, after losing four in row to Rebels, all by 4 or less points. Ole Miss lost six of last seven visits here, with four of six losses by 10 or less points. Rebels are 1-4 vs top 100 teams with only win over Memphis; they lost by 5 at Va Tech in their only true road game this season. Florida coach White was an Ole Miss PG in his college days.

Eastern Michigan won five of last seven games with Central Michigan; Chippewas lost three of last four visits to Ypsilanti, with losses by 6-22-15 points. Eastern forces turnovers 23.3% of time (#13) but thats about all they do well defensively; Eagles are 2-5 vs top 200 teams, with only wins over Omaha/Long Beach State. Central is #1 team in country at not turning ball over; they won seven of last eight games, are 3-1 in true road games, with only loss by 19 at Illinois. CMU is 10-3 vs schedule #296; they’re #164 experience team but they do not sub much at all.

Northern Illinois is 5-5 vs schedule #288; they also have three non-D-I wins. Huskies have #331 eFG%, shoot just 28.6% on arc, 44.2% inside arc- they do have #81 eFG% defense. Underdogs covered four of last five Northern Illinois-Miami games; Huskies won two of last three visits here, four of last six series games overall. Miami is 7-6 vs schedule #337; they’re 1-5 vs top 200 teams, with only win by 3 over IUPUI. RedHawks are #332 team that subs a lot but shoots only 32.8% on arc- they’re 6-2 at home, losing to Delaware/Northern Kentucky.

St Joe’s just lost 20-point scorer Newkirk for year, huge blow for them. Hawks won four of last five games but this is their first full game without Newkirk. Hawks’ bench had #248 minutes, so not lot of quality depth to step in for a key player. Rhode Island won last three games by 11-11-34 points; they’re 3-4 vs teams in top 150, forcing turnovers 20.6% of time. Hawks won seven of last eight games with URI, losing twice LY by 5-9 points, but now Rams are much the better team. St Joe’s won three of last four visits here.

North Carolina won its last eight games with Clemson, last five by 9+ points; Tar Heels won last three visits to Littlejohn by 2-9-24 points. UNC got upset at Ga Tech in ACC opener Saturday; they split last four games overall, are 1-2 in true road games, also losing at Kentucky, with win by 15 at Hawai’i. Clemson won ACC opener at Wake Forest Saturday; they’ve won nine games in row, last four vs top 80 teams. Tigers are 7-2 vs top 100 teams; they’re #27 experience team that is forcing turnovers 23% of time (#20).

Indiana allowed 82 pts/game in losing its last two games to Nebraska/Louisville; Hoosiers are 2-3 vs top 100 teams, with wins over Kansas/North Carolina, but they’re #311 experience team that is turning ball over 21.8% of time (#307). Wisconsin won its last eight games with three of them vs top 70 teams; Badgers split pair of true road games, losing by 12 at Creighton, winning at Marquette- this is their first road game in 24 days. Home side won last five Wisconsin-Indiana games; Badgers lost 75-72/59-58 in last two visits to Bloomington.

Dayton is 15-2 in its last 17 games with St Bonaventure, winning last three played here by 3-17-6 points. Flyers won eight of last nine games; they won only true road game at Alabama by 5, lost to Northwestern in Chicago (not Wildcats’ home court) by 3. Dayton is #46 experience team that forces turnovers 22.3% of time (#31). Bonnies are 9-4 vs schedule #220; they won eight of last ten games, are 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Florida/NC-Wilmington by total of eight points. St Bonaventure is making 39% of its 3-pointers (#46).

Alabama won six of last seven games with Mississippi State, with last three meetings decided by total of seven points. Crimson Tide won last three visits to Starkville by 32-4-2 points. Bama is 7-5 vs schedule #194; they’re 0-2 in true road games, losing at both Texas/Oregon by nine points each. Crimson Tide is shooting just 31.8% on arc. Bulldogs are 9-3 vs schedule #344; they’re least-experienced team in country but Howland is very good coach. State is 1-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 25-14-2 points; their only top 100 win was by 12 over Boise State.

Kansas is 10-2 in its last 12 games with K-State, sweeping three games LY by 18-9-22 points. Wildcats lost last ten visits here, with nine of ten losses by 17+ points. Jayhawks won its last 12 games since losing season opener to Indiana- they won Big X opener by 6 at TCU, tough game. Kansas is 12-1 vs schedule #51; they’ve got #5 eFG%, are shooting 40.9% on arc (#8). K-State won its only true road game by 3 at Saint Louis; they’re 12-1 vs schedule #34, so obviously this is a huge step up in class for them. Wildcats’ only loss was to Maryland by a point.

Things have flipped in Big X; TCU is a double digit favorite over Oklahoma, despite losing six in a row to Sooners, all by 7+ points. Horned Frogs lost Big X opener by 6 to Kansas; they’re 1-2 vs top 100 teams with win by 9 over Illinois State. TCU is forcing turnovers 22.2% of time (#32); coach Dixon has given Frog fans hope, but asking them to cover as double digit favorite is bit of a reach. Oklahoma is inexperienced (#321) team that lost its last four games, all to top 100 teams, three by 5 or less points. Oklahoma lost only true road tilt by 20 at Wisconsin.

Last three Texas A&M-Kentucky games went OT; Wildcats won four of last five series games- teams split last two games played here (last one in ’14). Aggies are #293 experience team that is 8-4 vs schedule #293- they’re 1-4 vs top 100 teams with all four losses by 10 or less points- their only top 100 win was by 3 over Va Tech. Kentucky is at home for first time in four weeks; they’re 4-2 vs top 100 teams, winning SEC opener by 23 at Ole Miss. Wildcats are experience team #347 that is playing pace #9- they force turnovers 21.7% of time.

West Virginia starts Big X play every year with western swing- they won by 17 at Oklahoma St in Big X opener Friday night, now visit Lubbock. WVU won its last six games with Texas Tech, covering last four. Mountaineers won last four visits here, by 16-3-11-4 points. West Virginia won its last eight games, winning by 9 at Virginia in its other true road game. Texas Tech is #43 at protecting ball, a must vs Huggins’ team; they lost Big X opener 63-56 at Iowa State after they led by 14 in second half. Tech’s other loss was to Auburn by 2 on a neutral floor.

Armadillosports.com

Tuesday's SEC Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Ole Miss at Florida

Florida is No. 2 in the RPI Rankings with the No. 1 strength of schedule to date. The Westgate SuperBook opened the Gators as 15-point home favorites for Tuesday’s showdown vs. Ole Miss.

Florida (10-3 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) has won three in a row since dropping back-to-back games vs. Duke (84-74) and at Florida State (83-78). UF started SEC play in style on Dec. 29 when it captured an 81-72 win at Arkansas as a 1.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Kevaughn Allen returned to his home state to score 21 points on 5-of-9 shooting from 3-point range. Devin Robinson added 17 points, seven rebounds and three blocked shots, while Kasey Hill and Kevarrius Hayes finished with 10 points apiece. Hill dished out a team-best six assists, while John Egbunu contributed five points, 11 rebounds and one rejection before fouling out. Egbunu logged 16 minutes off playing time and came off the bench in his first action since missing consecutive games with a hamstring injury.

Florida took its only other defeat to Gonzaga by a 77-72 count in Orlando. Mike White’s squad is 4-3 against the RPI Top-100, posting victories over Seton Hall (#26), Arkansas (#34), St. Bonaventure (#75) and Miami (#58).

UF owns a 4-1 spread record in five games as a double-digit favorite. The Gators have won six games by margins of 17 points or more.

Allen leads UF in scoring with a 14.2 points-per-game average. He’s hitting 39.1 percent of his launches from downtown and 88.5 percent from the free-throw line. Robinson (12.8 PPG) is shooting at a team-best 55.9 percent clip from the field and is also averaging 5.8 rebounds per game. Canyon Barry, a grad transfer from College of Charleston, is also scoring in double figures with a 10.9 PPG average. Hill (9.4 PPG) has a team-best 19 steals and a 62/38 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Egbunu (8.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG) has a team-high 23 blocked shots.

Ole Miss (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) lost its SEC opener 99-76 to Kentucky as an 11-point home underdog. The Wildcats raced out to a 60-39 halftime lead and coasted to the easy win. The 175 combined points soared ‘over’ the 166.5-point total. In the losing effort, Sebastian Saiz scored 23 points and pulled down 13 rebounds. Deandre Burnett produced 19 points and six assists, while Rasheed Brooks was also in double figures with 15 points.

Cullen Neal, a transfer from New Mexico is the son the Lobos’ head coach and former Georgia Tech player, ‘Noodles’ Neal, was held scoreless against the ‘Cats. Nevertheless, Neal is averaging 11.3 points and 3.3 assists per game.

Ole Miss has been an underdog three times, compiling a 2-1 spread record. The Rebels covered as 9.5-point ‘dogs in a pair of games, at Virginia Tech (80-75) and vs. Creighton (86-77) in St. Thomas.

Ole Miss has been a steady money maker in this rivalry, cashing tickets at an 8-1 ATS clip in the last nine head-to-head encounters. The underdog is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Florida has won outright in seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including both matchups last year. The Gators won an 80-71 decision in Oxford as one-point road favorites thanks to 27 points and six rebounds from Allen, who made 9-of-11 from the floor and 6-of-7 from long distance.

Burnett, a transfer from Miami, is averaging a team-high 19.2 PPG while draining 91.4 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe. Saiz (15.8 PPG, 12.2 RPG) is averaging a double-double, while Terrence Davis is averaging 12.2 points and 5.5 RPG.

The ‘over’ is 6-5 overall for the Gators, cashing in their lone home game. They’ve seen the ‘over’ go 6-2 in their last eight lined games.

The ‘over’ is 7-6 overall for the Rebels following back-to-back appearances, but the ‘under’ was a winner in their lone previous road assignment.

Texas A&M at Kentucky

Kentucky (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS) is No. 3 in the RPI Rankings, collecting quality wins on neutral courts against Michigan St. (69-48) and North Carolina (103-100). The Wildcats also have Top-100 victories over Ole Miss (#49), Canisius (#88) and Valpo (#59). They beat Arizona State115-69 down in the Bahamas.

John Calipari’s club is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS at home this year. UK took its lone defeat at Rupp Arena to UCLA by a 97-92 score as an 11-point favorite on Dec. 3.

Kentucky took its other loss Dec. 21 at Louisville, 73-70, as a 1.5-point road favorite. De’Aaron Fox haad 21 points in the losing effort, while fellow freshman Malik Monk had 16 points. However, Monk was an atrocious 1-of-9 from behind the 3-point line.

Kentucky was led by Monk’s 34 points its last time out in the aforementioned victory at Ole Miss. Isaiah Briscoe produed a triple-double with 19 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists compared to just two turnovers. Edrice Adebayo finished with 25 points and three blocked shots.

Monk (22.4 PPG) leads the ‘Cats in scoring and is burying 50.5 percent of his shots from the field. Fox (15.6 PPG) has a remarkable 89/31 assists-to-turnovers ratio, while Briscoe averages 15.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.2 steals per game.

As of late Monday night, most spots had Kentucky installed as a 14.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 149.

UK has posted a 7-3 spread record in 10 games as a double-digit favorite.

Texas A&M (8-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has dropped two of its last three games, including it SEC opener when Tennessee went into College Station and captured a 73-63 win as a 9.5-point road underdog. Sophomore forward D.J. Hogg had 21 points and five rebounds in the losing effort. Admon Gilder and J.C. Hampton were also in double figures with 14 and 11 points, respectively.

Texas A&M has only been an underdog once, failing to cover the number in a 74-67 loss to UCLA as a 5.5-point underdog on a neutral court. The Aggies two other defeats came against Arizona (67-63) on a neutral court and at home vs. Southern Cal (65-63).

Texas A&M has failed to cover in three straight outings. Billy Kennedy’s squad picked up its best win of the year over Virginia Tech (68-65) on a neutral court.

These SEC rivals have needed overtime in four of the last five head-to-head meetings. They have met six times since the Aggies joined the SEC in 2012. A&M has won outright three times while going 4-2 ATS. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in those six contests.

The ‘over’ is 9-4 overall for the ‘Cats, going 5-2 in their seven home outings. The ‘over’ is on a 7-2 run in UK’s last nine contests.

The ‘under’ is 5-3-1 overall for the Aggies.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Wisconsin will invade Assembly Hall to take on Indiana at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of late Friday, most books had the game as a pick ‘em. The Hoosiers have won nine of their 10 home games while producing a 5-3 spread record. They have lost back-to-back games, including a stunning home loss to Nebraska on Dec. 28 as 14-point home favorites. The Badgers take an eight-game winning streak into Bloomington. They are 6-1 ATS during their current surge.

Mike Krzyzewski will take an indefinite leave of absence from the team after coaching Wednesday against Georgia Tech. Coach K is slated for back surgery on Friday that is expected to have him sidelined for about a month.

After losing a 75-63 decision at Georgia Tech as a 17-point road favorite on New Year’s Eve, North Carolina will look to respond as a three-point road favorite Tuesday at Clemson. One offshore shop had the total at 152 points. The ‘under’ is 9-4 overall for the Tar Heels, who have seen the ‘under’ appear in all three of their road assignments.

Kansas State has won seven consecutive games since losing its only game of the year to Maryland by a 69-68 count on a neutral floor. The Wildcats are underdogs for the first time this year Tuesday at Kansas. The Jayhawks were favored by 12.5 late Monday night. This game will tip at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

After taking a nine-game winning steak into Chapel Hill last week, Monmouth has lost three in a row, including last night’s 61-51 defeat at Saint Peter’s as a six-point road ‘chalk.’

Indiana hosts Wisconsin
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com

#24 Indiana will be looking to prevent a three-game losing streak when it hosts a very good #13 Wisconsin team on Tuesday.

Wisconsin is on a roll heading into this gigantic conference battle, as the team has won eight straight games and failed to cover in only one of those contests. Wisconsin is getting it done on both ends of the floor this season, as the Badgers are allowing only 58.8 PPG (8th in NCAA) and are shooting 48.5% from the field as a team (t-27th in NCAA). They’ll look to suffocate Indiana’s offense and continue to take smart shots themselves in this one. The Hoosiers are struggling coming into this game, as they lost at home against both Nebraska and Louisville last week. They are, however, very talented and have one of the better offenses in the nation. Indiana is putting up 86.5 PPG (14th in NCAA) and is capable of getting extremely hot from the outside. Both teams are very good on the boards, as Wisconsin is averaging 40.8 RPG (23rd in NCAA) and Indiana is averaging 44.0 (5th in NCAA). The team that wins the battle on the glass will be in a good place in this one. Wisconsin has had the edge in this head-to-head series recently, though. The Badgers have won three of the past four against the Hoosiers (2-2 ATS), and they have also won five of their past seven games at Assembly Hall. Those two losses have, however, come in each of the past two meetings in Bloomington.

Wisconsin is playing some excellent basketball coming into this game, and the team has been spearheaded by the trio of G Bronson Koenig (14.1 PPG), F Nigel Hayes (14.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.1 SPG) and F Ethan Happ (12.7 PPG, 9.6 RPG). While Koenig is Wisconsin’s point guard, he really serves as more of a scorer for the team. He is capable of getting hot in a hurry, and he has hit 12 of his last 27 attempts from three. Koenig also happens to play well in big games, so he should be ready for the occasion in this one. Hayes is the guy that actually tends to run the show for the Badgers quite often. He is a “point forward” in every sense, as the Badgers rely on him to make a ton of decisions. He almost had a triple-double against Syracuse earlier in the year, and he’ll need to play well against Indiana in this one. That shouldn’t be a problem for Hayes, as he averaged 23.0 PPG in two meetings with the Hoosiers last season. Happ, meanwhile, is the Badgers’ most efficient player. He is averaging nearly a double-double on 66.7% shooting from the floor this season. Happ is, however, miserable from the charity stripe, as he is hitting only 48.9% of his free throws this season. He’ll need to be a bit better from there moving forward. One of the x-factors in this game just might be G D’Mitrik Trice (6.5 PPG), though. The freshman has been a sniper from deep, shooting 58.1% from three this season. It’d be big if he can step it up and shoot it well in Bloomington.

If Indiana is going to get back on track with a victory on Tuesday then both G James Blackmon Jr. (17.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and C Thomas Bryant (12.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.6 BPG) are going to need to play very well for the Hoosiers. Blackmon Jr. is one of the best scorers in the nation, but he has struggled a bit recently. In Indiana’s two losses this week, Blackmon Jr. totaled just 22 points on 7-for-22 shooting from the floor. He will need to be more active in this game, as the Hoosiers likely need him to score at least 18 points in order to beat the Badgers. Bryant, meanwhile, needs to be a force on both ends of the floor on Tuesday. Wisconsin has one of the best frontcourts in the nation, so Indiana really can’t afford to have Bryant not show up. He’s going to need to do his best to defend the rim, and it’s important that he does so while staying out of foul trouble. F OG Anunoby (12.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.1 SPG) must also bring it on both ends of the floor. Anunoby is one of the better perimeter defenders in the nation and he’ll likely spend most of this game guarding Nigel Hayes. If he can shut down Hayes then it’s likely that the Hoosiers will come away with a victory.