NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, March 14th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Mt St Mary’s went 17-4 in a bad NEC, was 2-12 out of conference; they’re 1-10 vs teams in top 200; they haven’t played one since Dec 19. Mountaineers lost this game 71-64 to Albany three years ago. NEC teams are 3-2 overall in play-in games. New Orleans didn’t even have a hoop team six years ago; Privateers won eight of last ten games, are #5 experience team- they start two juniors, three seniors, but they turn ball over 23.9% of time, 3rd-worst in country. Teams from Southland are 1-1 in play-in games.
Kansas State went 11-1 in its pre-conference schedule then was 9-11 in Big X games; Wildcats won three of last four games; they start three sophs, two seniors. K-State beat Boston College of the ACC 72-54 in November. Wake Forest beat BC three times, by 13-5-14 points. Deacons won four of last five games; they’re 9-3 out of conference. Wake starts three sophs, is #275 experience team. K-State starts two sophs, three seniors, is #218 team in experience. Last six years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in the “varsity (11-seed)” play-in games.
Armadillosports.com
Tuesday's First Four
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The 2017 NCAA Basketball Tournament will tip off Tuesday night in Dayton with a pair of First Four games. The winners will survive to play again on Thursday, while the losers will taste the earliest pink slips from this year’s Tourney. Let’s take a look at both matchups.
Mount Saint Mary’s vs. New Orleans
As of late Monday night, most betting shops had New Orleans (20-11 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) installed as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 131.5.
UNO is an incredible story. The school was devastated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005. In the aftermath of Katrina, two men’s head basketball coaches (Monte Towe and Buzz Williams) resigned to take assistant coaching jobs elsewhere (at North Carolina State and Marquette, respectively). In 2009, the university decided that financial issues were too much to overcome and made the decision to move down to Division III. However, Dr. Peter Fos, who took over as UNO’s president in 2012, made the decision shortly after his hiring to change course and work back to the Division-I level. Fos, who is now retired, made sure he was in Katy, Texas, on Saturday night for the Privateers’ victory in the Southland Tournament finals that secured their first NCAA Tournament bid in 21 years.
Mark Slessinger’s team won the Southland Conference’s regular-season title and the tournament, becoming the school’s first sport to win any sort of championship since Katrina. UNO beat Texas A&M-Corpus Christi by a 68-65 count as a 1.5-point favorite in overtime of Saturday’s finals of the league tournament. Trevin Broyles led the way with 15 points, while Erik Thomas added 14 points and 11 rebounds.
UNO is led by Thomas, a 6’5” senior forward who paces the team in scoring (19.5 points per game), rebounding (7.8 RPG), steals (45), field-goal percentage (59.1%) and free-throw percentage (78.3%). Thomas has scored in double figures in all 31 games and has dropped 20 points or more on opponents 15 times.
According to the New Orleans Times Picayune, UNO didn’t get back to campus from its drive from Katy until 3:00 p.m. Central on Sunday afternoon. The team left campus at 9:30 a.m. Monday morning for the drive to the airport, touching down in Dayton at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. The Privateers met with the media at 5:00 p.m. before holding a 40-minute practice.
Slessinger and his staff got together at 9:40 p.m. Central to prep for Mt. St. Mary’s on Sunday night. The short preparation is actually familiar to Slessinger, who was an assistant on the Northwestern St. staff in 2001 when the Demons participated in the first “play-in” game in NCAA Tournament history. NW St. beat Winthrop to advance in ’01 to advance to the Round of 64. This time around, the winner of this First Four matchup will move on to face the East Region’s top seed, Villanova, in Buffalo on Thursday at 7:10 p.m. Eastern.
Mount St. Mary’s (19-15 SU, 3-3 ATS) will be the fresher team, as it clinched its Tournament bid with last Tuesday’s 71-61 win over St. Francis (PA.) as a five-point favorite. The Mountaineers overcame a 31-23 halftime deficit thanks to the play of Elijah Long, who scored 24 points and pulled down nine rebounds. Junior Robinson added 22 points, burying 11-of-13 free-throw attempts. Miles Wilson added 15 points and 10 boards.
Long leads Mount St. Mary’s in scoring (15.4 PPG), assists (4.4 APG) and steals (1.6 SPG). Chris Wray (7.1 PPG) paces the Mountaineers in rebounding (5.9 RPG), FG percentage (57.5%) and blocked shots (1.5 BPG).
Mount St. Mary’s wasn’t afraid to face elite competition in non-conference play. The Mountaineers played six RPI Top-50 teams on the road. They lost at West Virginia (87-59), at Iowa State (73-55), at Minnesota (80-56), at UT-Arlington (80-71), at Michigan (64-47) and at Arkansas (89-76). Their only win over a foe with an RPI better than No. 226 came in a 78-76 win at George Mason (RPI: 102).
MSM is No. 149 in the RPI, while UNO is No. 153. The Privateers’ best win came in Pullman with a 70-54 win at Washington State (RPI: 163). They lost 117-72 at Oklahoma State, 88-54 at Southern Cal and 83-49 at Northwestern.
UNO’s three totals have been a wash this season (1-1-1). Likewise, totals have been a wash for MSM (3-3).
Wake Forest vs. Kansas State
As of late Monday night, most books had this game at pick ‘em or with Wake Forest (19-13 SU, 16-14 ATS) favored by one point. The total was 152.5.
Wake Forest has won four of its last five games. Danny Manning’s team saw its four-game winning streak snapped in a 99-90 loss to Virginia Tech at the ACC Tournament. Bryant Crawford scored a team-best 21 points in the losing effort. John Collins had 15 points, 10 rebounds and two blocked shots before fouling out. Brandon Childress scored 15 points on 3-of-43 shooting from 3-point range, while Konstantinos Mitoglou contributed 12 points, 13 rebounds and a pair of blocks.
Wake Forest is led by Collins, who leads the team in scoring (18.9 PPG), rebounding (9.8 RPG), FG percentage (62.0%) and blocked shots (1.6 BPG). Crawford (16.1 PPG) paces the Demon Deacons in assists (5.4 APG) and steals (1.4 SPG). Keyshawn Woods (12.8 PPG) is draining 3-balls at a 45.8 percent clip and has a 113/55 assists-to-turnovers ratio.
Wake Forest is No. 40 in the RPI, posting a 1-7 record against the Top 25, a 3-10 record versus the Top 50 and an 8-13 mark against the Top 100. The Demon Deacons’ only defeats to teams not in the NCAA field came at Syracuse, at Clemson and vs. Clemson at home. They have home wins over Miami, Louisville and Bucknell, in addition to road wins at Virginia Tech, at Charleston, at Richmond and at UNC Greensboro.
Kansas State (20-13 SU, 15-12 ATS) lost eight of 10 games at one point and appeared headed toward the wrong side of the bubble. However, Bruce Weber’s team won 75-74 at TCU and 61-48 over Texas Tech at home to close the regular season. Then in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals in Kansas City, the Wildcats captured a 70-64 win over Baylor as 4.5-point underdogs. Barry Brown was the catalyst with 21 points, three steals, two blocked shots and two assists without a turnover. Brown knocked down all four of his 3-point attempts. D.J. Johnson added 13 points, seven rebounds, two steals and two blocks.
Kansas State would lose a 51-50 decision to West Va. in the Big 12 semifinals, but it took the cash as a six-point underdog. Wesley Iwundu scored a team-best 13 points in defeat.
Kansas State is No. 56 in the RPI Rankings, going 3-7 against the Top 25, 4-9 versus the Top 50 and 6-11 against the Top 100. The Wildcats have road wins at Baylor, at Oklahoma State, at TCU and at Colorado, in addition to a home win over WVU and the neutral-court scalp of Baylor.
Iwundu leads K-State in scoring (12.5 PPG) and rebounding (6.4 RPG). Brown (11.7 PPG) leads the team in steals (2.4 SPG), while Johnson (11.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG) paces the Wildcats in FG percentage (61.5%) and blocks (1.5 BPG). Kamau Stokes, a sophomore guard, averages 11.6 points and 4.3 assists per contest.
Wake Forest is ranked 16th in the nation in scoring (82.7 PPG) and 12th in free-throw shooting (77.3%).
Wake Forest went 4-10 in 14 games against teams in the Tournament field, while K-State posted a 4-9 record.
The ‘over’ is on an incredible 15-2 run for the Deacs, who have seen the ‘over’ go 21-8-1 overall.
The ‘under’ is 16-13 overall for K-State, 5-2 in its last seven games.
Tuesday's NCAA Tournament First Four Betting Preview
By Covers.com
The NCAA Tournament tips off on Tuesday night with a pair of play-in games - the NCAA definitely doesn't want you to call them "play-in" games but they are definitely play-in games. The battle of potential No. 16 seeds has New Orleans taking on Mount St. Mary's and Wake Forest and Kansas St. will battle for the right to take on Cincinnati as a No. 11 seed in the Big Dance.
First Four games to be played at University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
(16) New Orleans Privateers vs (16) Mount St. Mary's Mountaneers (+1.5, 131)
A guaranteed berth to the NCAA Tournament appeared to be the unlikeliest of endings for Mount St. Mary's after a woeful start, but an inspiring midseason turnaround has the Northeast Conference Champions in the Big Dance for the fifth time in school history. The Mountaineers attempt to continue their second-half surge Tuesday when they meet fellow East Region No. 16 seed New Orleans in a First Four game in Dayton, Ohio.
Mount St. Mary's paid the price for scheduling aggressively during its non-conference slate, going 1-11 during a stretch in which it faced six NCAA Tournament teams, highlighted by three conference tournament champions in Iowa State, Michigan and Bucknell. The Mountaineers' fortunes changed immediately after their Dec. 19 loss to the Bison, however, as a rout of Coppin State three days later triggered an 18-4 finish. The Privateers ended a 21-year NCAA Tournament drought by claiming the Southland Conference regular-season and tournament title en route to posting their first 20-win campaign since 1996-97. The winner of this contest will face the tall task of trying to defeat No. 1 overall seed Villanova in Buffalo, N.Y. in first-round action Thursday.
LINE HISTORY: New Orleans opened as two-point favorites over Mount St. Mary's but that line has come down slightly to 1.5. The total hit the board at 131, jumped up a full point to 132, before returning the the opening number Tuesday morning. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT NEW ORLEANS (20-11 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-1-1 O/U): Southland Conference Player of the Year Erik Thomas has scored in double figures in every game this season and earned tournament MVP honors after averaging 16 points and seven boards in the Privateers' two-game march through the league tournament. The 6-5 senior forward, who ranks first in the conference in field-goal percentage (59.1), second in scoring (19.5 points) and fifth in rebounding (7.8 ), posted his 11th double-double of the season with 14 points and 11 boards in the title-game overtime win over Texas A&M - Corpus Christi. Travin Thibodeaux (8.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, team-high 3.3 assists) - a 6-9, 242-pound forward - gives New Orleans an all-around inside presence, while senior guards Christavious Gill (11.6 points) and Nate Frye (10.3) join Thomas in double figures.
ABOUT MOUNT ST. MARY'S (19-15 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U): The Mountaineers are led by their undersized backcourt duo of 6-0 guard Elijah Long (team-high marks of 15.4 points, NEC-high 4.4 assists and 1.6 steals to go along with 5.4 rebounds) and 5-5 Junior Robinson (14.1 points), who combined for 46 points in Tuesday's 71-61 NEC title-game win over St. Francis (Pa.). Long was named the tournament MVP after averaging 21.7 points during Mount St. Mary's three-game run and has recorded multiple steals in five straight games. The Mountaineers' only other double-digit scorer is fellow guard Miles Wilson (11.3 points, 3.6 rebounds), a 6-5 freshman who posted 15 points and a season-high 10 boards for his first career double-double Tuesday.
TRENDS:
* Privateers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
* Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.
* Over is 7-1-1 in Privateers last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.
* Under is 6-1 in Mountaineers last 7 games as an underdog.
CONSENSUS: The early consensus data has 57 percent of bettors taking the points with Mount St. Mary's, while 52 percent of wager are on the Over.
(11) Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs (11) Kansas St. Wildcats (-2, 151.5)
Danny Manning made his name as a college basketball player at Kansas, which he led past Kansas State nearly 30 years ago en route to a NCAA championship. The third-year Wake Forest coach will face his former in-state rival for the first time since that meeting in the 1988 Elite Eight on Tuesday when the Demon Deacons square off in an NCAA Tournament South Region matchup against the fellow-11th seeded Wildcats in a First Four game at Dayton, Ohio.
Two games before pulling an upset of heavily-favored Oklahoma in the title game, Manning willed a group of Jayhawks famously dubbed "Danny and the Miracles" to a 71-58 win victory over a Kansas State team led by another Hall-of-Fame player in Mitch Richmond. Thanks to another late-season surge with less on the line, Manning has Wake Forest in the Big Dance for the first time since 2009-10 after the Deacons finished at .500 in the ultra-competitive ACC. The Wildcats ended a two-year NCAA Tournament drought this season despite an 8-10 mark in Big 12 play, cracking the field of 68 largely on the strength of three Top-25 victories - two over Baylor and one against West Virginia. The winner of this contest will head to Sacramento, Calif. on Thursday to face No. 6 seed Cincinnati in first-round action.
LINE HISTORY: This game opened as a Pick 'Em and wavered between Pick and Wake Forest -1 for the first 24 hours. The number on Tuesday morning was WF -1 but shortly before noon ET the spread jumped the fence and currently sits at K-State -2. The total opened at 152, rose up to 153, and was then bet down to 151.5 on Tuesday morning. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT WAKE FOREST (19-13 SU, 16-14 ATS, 21-8-1 O/U): John Collins ranks third in the ACC in scoring (18.9 points) as well as second in rebounding (9.8 ) and first in field-goal percentage (62) - marks that allowed the 6-10 forward to win the conference's Most Improved Player award and finish second in the ACC Player of the Year balloting. Fellow sophomore Bryant Crawford (16.1 points, team-high 5.4 assists, team-high 1.4 steals) is averaging 22.3 points over his last three outings in large part due to ability to get to the foul line, going 32-for-34 from the free-throw line over that span. Crawford - the first Deacon since Randolph Childress in 1994-95 with over 500 points and 150 assists - and Collins are the first Wake Forest duo since Tim Duncan and Childress to record 500 points in the same season.
ABOUT KANSAS STATE (20-13 SU, 15-12-2 ATS, 13-16 O/U): All five Wildcat starters score between 9.4 and 12.5 points per game - a balanced offensive attack that mirrors a stingy team defense which has allowed an average of 54.3 points over its last three contests and ranks third in the Big 12 in scoring defense overall (66.9). Senior forward Wesley Iwundu leads the team in scoring and rebounding (6.4), while sophomore guard Barry Brown averages 11.7 points and 2.4 steals - the second-best mark in the Big 12. Forwards D.J. Johnson (11.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.5 blocks) and Dean Wade (9.4 points, 4.6 boards) each hold their own offensively, but their biggest task Tuesday will be trying to slow down Collins, who has been held under 10 points only twice this season.
TRENDS:
* Demon Deacons are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games.
* Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Over is 13-3 in Demon Deacons last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
* Under is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 vs. Atlantic Coast.
CONSENSUS: The early consensus has 58 percent of bettors siding with Wake Forest, while 53 percent of wager are on the Over.