NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, March 7th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
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ACC tournament, Brooklyn
If you’re playing in the ACC tournament today, you had a bad season. Except for Wake Forest
NC State fired its coach three weeks ago; they’ve lost nine of last ten games, with win by hoop at Ga Tech. Clemson started season 11-2, then lost 12 of next 15 games before winning last two; they beat NC State 78-74 at home six days ago, in only meeting this season. Teams split last eight series games. Brownell is 2-6 in ACC tourney games. Wolfpack won its first ACC tourney game the last five years. Tigers lost seven of last eight road games, with one win at Pitt; State is 2-7 in ACC road games. NC State turned ball over 19.3% of time in ACC games.
Wake Forest is 1-9 in ACC tournament the last nine years; they beat Boston College twice this year, 79-66/85-80- they were 17-36 on arc in those games. Deacons won last three games overall, went 9-9 in ACC (5 wins vs BC-NC St-GT); they’ve got shot at NCAA’s, but obviously need win here and then more wins. BC is horrible again, going 2-16 in ACC; they’re 10-62 in ACC games last four years, 1-3 in this event. Eagles lost last 14 games; their last win was Jan 11 over NC State- they do have wins over Providence and Syracuse.
Georgia Tech lost four of last six games, but one of wins was 61-52 over Pitt week ago tonight. Tech shot 55% inside arc in that game; they’re 2-3 vs Pitt in ACC games, 2-6 in ACC tourney last six years. Pastner was 11-4 in conference tourneys at Memphis, with three titles. Pitt lost its last four games, scoring 52-42 points in last two games. Pitt is just 3-8 in conference tourneys the last eight years. Stallings was 13-13 in SEC tourney his last 14 years at Vanderbilt; he won SEC tourney in 2012. Wake is best team in ACC at getting to the foul line.
Big Sky tournament, Reno
Until recently, only top half of league qualified for this tournament
Portland State lost nine of its last 12 games, with four losses in OT; home side won both their games with Northern Arizona this year. Vikings forced 43 NAU turnovers in two games, but they were -25 n boards in loss in Flagstaff. PSU is #22 experience team in country, but Big Sky teams shot 55% inside arc against them this year. Lumberjacks lost six of last nine games; they lost nine of last ten games away from home. Portland State is 7-1 in its first conference tourney games- they start three seniors and two juniors.
Sacramento State is 5-3 in its last eight games; they won their first Big Sky tourney game the last two years, by 10-4 points. Hornets beat Idaho State 75-63 at home Feb 11, only meeting this year, game Vikings led by 12 at half- they’re 5-2 in last seven games overall with ISU. Idaho State lost its last eight games; 0-2 in Big Sky tourney games the last seven years. Bengals’ last tourney win was in ’09. Sac State plays slowest tempo in league; ISU plays 3rd-fastest. PG for Idaho State is Ethan Telfair, brother of the former NBA guard.
Montana State went 10-3 in its last 13 games after starting season 6-12; Bobcats won 83-78 at Southern Utah Feb 13, in only meeting this year; MSU forced 23 turnovers (+12), were 11-27 on arc. Montana State is 7-1 vs Thunderbirds in Big Sky play. SUU lost 15 of last 16 games, with one win over NAU; T’birds allowed 84+ points in each of last four games. MSU is 0-5 in Big Sky tourney the last seven years; their last tourney win was in ’09. Bengals is 0-2 in tourney the last seven years; their last win was also in ’09.
Horizon tournament, Detroit
Milwaukee had lost nine games in row coming into Horizon tourney; now #10 seed Panthers are playing for 4th time in five nights for conference title. Northern Kentucky won 11 of its last 13 games; they split with Milwaukee this year, losing by 10 on road Jan 12 (game was tied at half), then winning rematch by 6 at home Feb 11- they were down 8 at half. NKU used three starters 38:00+ last nite, a 4th starter 33:00- they were up 15 at half, not real stressful game. Panthers used used only two kids more than 27:00 last nite. Game will be in a large, mostly empty arena.
Summit tournament, Sioux Falls
South Dakota State is in Summit final for 5th time in last six years; they had emotional 74-71 win over its arch-rival last night; Jackrabbits were down 11 at half, took lead with 0:01.5 left. Visitors won both SD State-Omaha games this year; Mavericks led 55-34 at half of 101-93 win on road Jan 7 (Omaha was 16-35 on arc), then Jackrabbits won rematch 88-84 three weeks later- they were 11-30 on arc. Omaha shoots 42.6% on arc in Summit games, best in league. Jackrabbits shoot 56% inside the arc, also best in league. State will have big crowd edge in this game.
Armadillosports.com
ACC Trends and Angles
VegasInsider.com
No. 12 Clemson vs. No. 13 N.C. State
Clemson enters Tuesday's matchup as a six-point favorite. These teams just met on March 1 at Littlejohn Arena in the upstate, with the Tigers winning 78-74 and the Wolfpack covering a nine-point number. This could very well be the swan song of head coach Mark Gottfried, who has already been fired but allowed to coach to the end of the season. The Pack have dropped nine of their past 10 games and they're just 2-8 ATS during the span. The 'under' has connected in four in a row for State. Clemson has picked on the teams they're supposed to beat, covering two of their past eight against teams with a losing overall record. Projection Clemson 77 N.C. State 68
No. 10 Wake Forest vs. No. 15 Boston College
The Demon Deacons roll into this one on a three-game winning streak, and their win over Louisville has some thinking potential NCAA Tournament bid. However, the Deacs likely need to win at least two or three games in this tournament before realistically getting a chance to dance. They swept the regular season series against the Eagles, winning by 13 on their home floor, and by five in Chestnut Hill. The Eagles covered in both outings, however. Covering is not a strong suit of B.C., however, as they are 0-4 ATS in their past four outings and 2-10 ATS in their past 12 neutral-site affairs. The Deacs are 3-1-1 ATS in their past five on a neutral court, but just 8-20 ATS in their past 28 as a favorite. Projection Wake Forest 83 Boston College 71
No. 11 Georgia Tech vs No. 14 Pittsburgh
It was a difficult season for both of these proud programs and they're not used to playing as lower seeds on tournament day. Pitt enters as a 1 1/2-point favorite despite the fact the Yellow Jackets just topped the Panthers 61-52 back on Feb. 28. It was the only win in the past four tries for the Jackets. However, they're an impressive 5-2 ATS over their past seven games, and 11-4 ATS over their past 15 overall. The Panthers enter play on a four-game skid, and they have failed to cover their past three. If anything has been consistent about Pittsburgh it is the 'under', cashing in each of their past six, and nine of their past 11. The 'under' is also 3-1 in Tech's past four, including the game against the Panthers which went under the total by 21 points. Projection Georgia Tech 67 Pittsburgh 63
ACC Conference Tournament First Round Betting Preview
By Covers.com
The ACC is the first of the major college basketball conferences to get their conference tournament underway, with the first round tipping off Tuesday afternoon. N.C. State takes on Clemson, Boston College battles Wake Forest, and Pittsburgh draws Georgia Tech.
Tournament to be played at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs Clemson Tigers (-6, 152)
N.C. State won at Duke on Jan. 23 and appeared to be ready for a run, but they were never good enough defensively while allowing an ACC-most 79.7 points per game. Smith scored just 13 in each of the last two games, but he has ample offensive support from senior guard Terry Henderson (13.9), sophomore guard Maverick Rowan (11.9) and junior forward Abdul-Malik Abu (11.7, team-high 7.0 rebounds). Freshman guard Markell Johnson suffered a knee injury Wednesday and will be a game-time decision.
Clemson averaged 80 points in the last two games of the regular season and shot 54.5 percent from the field in Saturday’s 82-68 triumph against Boston College. Senior forward Jaron Blossomgame (17.3 points) leads the way while Holmes (11.0), a senior guard, tops the team with 66 makes from 3-point range and sophomore backcourt mate Shelton Mitchell averaged 14.8 the last four games. Sophomore Marcquise Reed (10.2 points) is also productive while senior center Sidy Djitte leads the team in rebounds (7.3).
Betting Stats:
N.C. State - 15-16 SU, 11-17 ATS, 16-12 O/U
Clemson - 16-14 SU, 12-14-2 ATS, 16-12 O/U
Trends:
* Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
* Under is 4-0 in Wolfpack last 4 games as an underdog.
* Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. Atlantic Coast.
Boston College Eagles vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-13, 159)
B.C. coach Jim Christian said in the wake of the loss to Clemson that "we've got a good foundation now," and it is no secret that he's referring to guards Jerome Robinson and Ky Bowman. Robinson, a sophomore, finished fourth in the ACC in scoring (18.7) and was an All-ACC honorable mention pick, while Bowman was part of the conference's All-Freshman team after averaging 14.5 points and shooting 44.5 percent from 3-point distance. The Eagles, who were ousted in the opening round last season, have allowed at least 82 points in nine of their last 10 games.
Wake's John Collins was limited to 13 points and nine boards in the win over Virginia Tech on Saturday as he wrestled with foul trouble, but guard Bryant Crawford carried the load with 26 points. Crawford (15.8 ) ranks second to Collins on the team's scoring list and fellow sophomore Keyshawn Woods (12.8 ) is third. Austin Arians and Mitchell Wilbekin combined for 94 3-pointers while shooting a collective 40.3 percent from beyond the arc for the ACC's third-ranked offense (82.1).
Betting Stats:
Boston College - 9-22 SU, 13-13 ATS, 16-10 O/U
Wake Forest - 18-12 SU, 15-13 ATS, 19-8-1 O/U
Trends:
* Eagles are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games.
* Demon Deacons are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
* Over is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater.
* Over is 13-3 in Demon Deacons last 16 overall.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Pittsburgh Panthers vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-13, 138)
The Pittsburgh Panthers were sloppy in losing to Virginia on Saturday, committing 14 turnovers and being outscored 27-0 on turnovers. Michael Young and Jamel Artis have combined for 26 games of 20 or more points scored this season and account for 52.1 percent of the team's 73.5-point average. Cameron Johnson has shot 45.9 percent from 3-point range over his last 10 games, including two contests with six made 3-pointers and one with five.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have scored 61 points or fewer in each of their last three games - six below their season average. Ben Lammers led the ACC and is third nationally in blocked shots per game (3.3) to go with 14.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per contest. Freshman Josh Okogie leads the team in scoring at 15.5 points and averaged 17.1 on 48.1 percent shooting during conference play.
Betting Stats:
Pittsburgh - 15-16 SU, 12-16-2 ATS, 12-18 O/U
Georgia Tech - 17-14 SU, 15-11 ATS, 10-15-1 O/U
Trends:
* Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
* Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 6-0 in Panthers last 6 overall.
* Panthers are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
WCC - Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Gonzaga is in the WCC Tournament finals for the 20th straight season after struggling to get past Saint Mary’s last night at The Orleans Arena in Las Vegas. Waiting for the ‘Zags will be Saint Mary’s, which is looking for its first WCC Tournament title since 2012.
Saint Mary’s (28-3 straight up, 16-10 against the spread) made quick and easy work of BYU in last night’s semifinals matchup, coasting to an 81-50 win as an eight-point ‘chalk.’ The 131 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 143-point total.
Jock Landale paced the Gaels with 22 points and 10 rebounds, hitting 8-of-12 shots from the field and all six of his free throws. Calvin Hermanson added 14 points and six boards, while Emmett Naar scored 12 points and handed out 11 assists compared to just two turnovers. Tanner Krebs was also in double figures, scoring 11 points on 3-of-4 shooting from 3-point range in only 15 minutes of playing time from off of the bench.
Saint Mary’s defense held BYU’s Nick Emery scoreless, as the smooth-shooting lefty missed all seven of his shots from the field. The Gaels limited the Cougars to 31.7 percent shooting from the field and 23.5 percent from downtown.
Meanwhile, Gonzaga (31-1 SU, 21-7 ATS) never threatened to cover the number and led by just five with two minutes remaining in last night’s 77-68 win over Santa Clara as a 23-point ‘chalk.’ The 145 combined points went ‘over’ the 136.5-point total.
Nigel Williams-Goss was the catalyst, producing 25 points, eight rebounds and five assists. Williams-Goss made 9-of-13 shots while logging 38 minutes of playing time. Przemek Karnowski contributed 19 points, seven rebounds and a pair of blocked shots, while Johnathan Williams finished with 11 points and six boards.
As of early Tuesday morning, most books had Gonzaga installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 134. The Gaels were +210 on the money line (risk $100 to win $210).
When these bitter rivals met for the first time this season in Spokane on Jan. 14, Gonzaga rolled to a 79-56 win as a five-point home favorite. The 135 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 136.5-point total.
Williams-Goss led the way with 19 points and six assists compared to merely one turnover. Jordan Mathews added 16 points, draining 6-of-8 shots from the field and 4-of-6 launches from long distance. Williams produced 14 points, five boards and five blocked shots, while Zach Collins was also in double figures with 10 points.
In the losing effort, Hermanson had a team-best 12 points for the Gaels, who got 10 points apiece out of Dane Pineau and Landale.
The rematch took place on Feb. 11 at McKeon Pavilion in Moraga, where Gonzaga captured a 74-64 win as a four-point road favorite. The 138 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 133-point tally.
Karnowski paced the ‘Zags with 19 points and nine rebounds. Williams added 17 points, nine rebounds and two blocks. Williams-Goss finished with 14 points, three assists, three rebounds and three steals, while Silas Melson scored 12 points.
Despite being limited to 25 minutes of action due to foul trouble, Landale nonetheless contributed 24 points and eight rebounds. He was the only Saint Mary’s player to score in double figures. Naar scored only five points, making just 2-of-11 shots from the field, and he had as many turnovers (four) as assists (four).
Gonzaga is No. 11 in the RPI Rankings an fourth in the Associated Press’s poll. The Bulldogs are unbeaten in four games against RPI Top-25 opponents, 5-0 versus the Top 50 and 10-1 against the Top 100. They took their only loss at home to BYU two weeks ago. Mark Few’s team owns neutral-court wins over Florida, Arizona, Iowa State and Tennessee. Plus, the ‘Zags swept Saint Mary’s and won at BYU.
Saint Mary’s is No. 20 in the RPI and No. 19 in the AP’s Top 25. Randy Bennett’s squad is 1-2 against the RPI Top 25, 2-3 versus the Top 50 and 7-3 against the Top 100. The Gaels’ only other loss to a team not named Gonzaga came vs. UT-Arlington (RPI: 40) at home on Dec. 8. They have a home win over Nevada, in addition to road scalps of Dayton and Stanford, Also, they beat BYU three times by double-digit margins and swept San Francisco (RPI: 97).
Saint Mary’s has been an underdog just twice, going 0-2 both SU and ATS in both instances against tonight’s foe. Speaking of Gonzaga, it is unbeaten in six neutral-court contests with a 3-3 spread record. In six games as a single-digit favorite, Few’s club owns a 5-1 spread record.
Williams-Goss leads Gonzaga in scoring (16.7 points per game), assists (4.7 APG) and steals (1.6 SPG), in addition to grabbing 5.7 rebounds per game. Karnowski (12.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG) shoots at a 60.6 clip from the field, while Williams averages 10.1 points and 6.4 rebounds per game.
Landale nearly averages a double-double, scoring 17.1 PPG while pulling down 9.5 RPG. Hermanson (13.0 PPG) is burying 44.1 percent of his 3-balls, while Naar (9.5 PPG, 43.2% from 3-point range) has a 181/73 assists-to-turnover ratio. Joe Rahon (8.2 PPG) has a 177/51 assists-to-turnovers ratio and a team-high 31 steals.
Saint Mary’s is ranked second in the nation in scoring defense, limiting opponents to just 55.9 PPG. The Gaels rank eighth in the country in defending the 3-point line, holding foes to just 29.9 percent accuracy from downtown. Offensively, Bennett’s team is sixth in the nation in FG% (50.0) and 18th in 3-point shooting (39.8%).
Gonzaga is second in the country in field-goal percentage (51.9%) and 13th in scoring (84.9 PPG). The Bulldogs are eighth in the nation in scoring defense (61.3 PPG), second in FG% ‘D’ (36.8 ) and fifth at defending the 3-point line (29.5%).
The ‘under’ had cashed in three straight games for the Bulldogs until last night’s emergence of the ‘over.’ For the season, the ‘over’ is 15-14 overall for Gonzaga.
The ‘under’ is 16-12 overall for the Gaels.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Gonzaga has won 13 games in a row in the WCC Tournament. With a win tonight, most believe the Bulldogs will cement a spot on the top line (a No. 1 seed) in the 2017 NCAA Tournament’s West Region. If the Gaels pull the upset, Gonzaga will probably fall to a No. 2 seed.
The Horizon League will give out its NCAA bid tonight at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit, where Northern Kentucky was listed as a 5.5-point favorite over UW-Milwaukee early this morning. The total was 136 points, while the Panthers had +200 odds to win outright (risk $100 to win $200). Northern Kentucky has won five games in a row while cashing tickets at a 4-0-1 ATS clip. The Norse have seen the ‘over’ hit in six consecutive games. UW-Milwaukee had lost nine games in a row coming into the Horizon Tournament, but it has ripped off three straight wins both SU and ATS to advance to the finals. The Panthers beat Northern Kentucky 68-58 as four-point home underdogs on Jan. 12. In the Feb. 11 rematch, the Norse won a 69-63 decision, but UW-Milwaukee took the money as a nine-point road underdog. This game will tip at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports posted a late-night column Monday, reporting that Washingto's Lorenzo Romar and Ohio State’s Thad Matta would both be returning to their respective schools. On the other hand, Forde, citing anonymous sources, reported that Georgia was exploring its options to potentially replace Mark Fox. However, early Tuesday morning, UGA AD Greg McGarity issued this statement: “In response to the report by Yahoo Sports, we are NOT in the process of exploring our options to replace Mark Fox. We look forward to Mark leading our program next year and all of our efforts are centered on postseason play. It’s unfortunate we need to respond at this time, but it was necessary to quiet these unfounded rumors.”
Fox’s UGA team is 18-13 overall and 9-9 in SEC play. The Bulldogs lost in overtime at Kentucky and at Florida, and they also lost by two at South Carolina and by one at Texas A&M in an extremely controversial contest. They’ve only been to two NCAA Tournaments since Fox took over in 2009, but they’ll win 20 games for the fourth consecutive season if they win a pair at the SEC Tournament in Nashville this weekend. UGA opens up against Tennessee at 1:00 p.m. Easter on Thursday. With a win, the Bulldogs would face top-seeded Kentucky, who has had to play from behind and rally to victories in three straight head-to-head meetings with J.J. Frazier and Co.