NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, November 22nd, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Towson State led by 13 at Maryland Sunday with 14:27 left, lost by 5; Tigers are 2-1 with all three games on road- they start three juniors, one senior. Towson is #64 in experience; they’re shooting just 29.1% on arc but force turnovers 20% of time. Boston College is 2-1 but hasn’t played anyone ranked above #215; they lost at home to #314 Nicholls State. Eagles start a freshman and two sophs. A CAA team favored on road over an ACC team? CAA teams are 12-14 vs spread.
Arkansas scored 84.3 pts/game in beating three decent teams to open season; they were down 17 in last game vs Tex-Arlington, won by 4. Razorbacks are #19 experience team; they outscored UTA 24-9 on line; Hogs made 44.4% on arc so far- this is their first road game. Minnesota scored 85.5 pts/game in winning four home games; young Gophers are playing #72 pace- they’ve got two top 100 wins, beating Tex-Arlington by 17, St John’s by 6.
Middle Tennessee State beat Toledo by 8 LY in finals of Alaskan Shootout; Blue Raiders split pair of D-I home games to start this season, lost to Tennessee State by 11 after beating Murray State by 6. MTSU is shooting just 57% on foul line so far. Toledo is 2-1 vs decent teams, with three games decided by total of 10 points- their loss was by point to St Joe’s. Toledo starts four seniors; they won at Wright State. C-USA teams are 17-13 vs spread. MAC teams are 16-15.
Oregon State misses graduated star Gary Payton Jr; they scored 59 pts/game in losing last couple games, to Lamar/Nevada. Beavers are turning ball over 27.4% of time, 7th-worst in country- they’ve got only one senior who plays and he’s a 7-footer. Tulsa lost 7 of top 8 scorers from LY’s team; Hurricane lost by 27 at Wichita, also lost at home to Jacksonville State- they’re turning ball over 22.6% of time. Tulsa starts a freshman and three juniors- they’re shooting 55.2% on line.
Wyoming is 3-0 with a 73-72 win at Montana (were down 9 with 9:27 left); Cowboys scored 75 pts/game in first two games vs D-I teams- they start two sophs, three juniors. Pacific lost couple road games (UCLA, Irvine) but upset Green Bay in its only home game; Tigers start four seniors, unusual for new coach- they have zero blocked shots in three games. Mountain West teams are 12-6 SU in last 18 games with WCC teams, 2-4 vs spread when an underdog.
Maui Classic
Tennessee is one of 20 least experienced teams in country; they’re playing pace #34. Vols played six guys 23:00+ yesterday, rallying back from down 17 to take lead before losing to Wisconsin by 12- they’re forcing turnovers 22% of time, but still give up 83.3 pts/game. Oregon was also down big yesterday, rallied but fell short vs Georgetown. Ducks got star Brooks back- he played 13:00. Six other Oregon kids played 26+ minutes. Pac-12 teams won seven of last eight games with SEC teams. Pac-12 teams are 16-17 against the spread.
Wisconsin has its whole team back from LY; they blew a 17-point lead yesterday, still won by 12 over a more athletic team- they used four kids 29:00+. Badgers start 4 seniors; play 4th-slowest pace in country and have only made 32% of 3’s so far. Georgetown was up 17 at half vs Oregon, hung on for win; Hoyas lost at home to Maryland/Ark State; their last three games were decided by total of 11 points. Pryor had 26 yesterday; he is Hoyas’ only senior who plays- they forced turnovers 26% of time so far- interesting matchup here against Wisconsin squad that turns ball over 22.5% of time..
Oklahoma State is 4-0, scoring 104.8 pts/game; they beat UConn 98-90 yesterday in foul fest where both teams took 42 FTs. Two Cowboys played more than 27:00 (31-32)- they’re forcing turnovers 23.6% of time, are shooting 41% on arc. North Carolina had glorified practice over a D-II team last night; Tar Heels are 5-0 with no close games, no top 100 wins; they’re grabbing 49% of own missed shots- can Cowboys hold their own on boards? ACC teams/Big X teams split their last 22 meetings; ACC teams are 7-7 vs spread when favored. Big X teams are 3-0 vs spread this season as an underdog.
Barclay’s Center, Brooklyn
Texas is 3-1, with all three wins vs teams ranked #233 or worse; Longhorns start a freshman, two sophs- they lost by 19 to Northwestern last nite, going 13-27 on foul line- they were -9 on boards. Colorado got down big early last nite vs Notre Dame, rallied back but lost by 6; Buffs played 8 kids 10:00+, one more than 30:00- they start 4 seniors. Texas played one kid more than 27:00 last nite; they also played 8 guys 10:00+. These teams were Big X rivals up until 2010; Texas won last six series games. Big X teams are 12-6 vs spread this season.
Notre Dame plays Northwestern sometimes in football, but not in hoops; Irish used three kids 32+ minutes last nite, running out to big lead, holding on to win 89-83. ND starts two juniors, three seniors- they used two subs more than 9:00. Wildcats are playing to build tournament resume; they’ve never made NCAAs, but Texas win last nite is big. Northwestern is 3-1 with a 2-point loss at Butler; they’re shooting 42.2% on arc while starting 2 sophs, 2 juniors, playing one of 20 slowest tempos in country. This is a bigger game for Northwestern than Notre Dame.
Cancun Challenge
Auburn beat three stiffs to open season, winning by 17-18-21 points; they’re #3 in country at getting to foul line, where they’ve shot only 63.4%. Young Tigers (start 3 freshmen, 2 sophs) are forcing turnovers 25.5% of time (#15 in US); they’re playing #17 pace, with subs playing #22 minutes in country. Texas Tech has new coach, is #10 experience team in country- they’re 3-0 vs similar stiffs, #28 at protecting ball so far. Red Raiders are making 47.9% on arc while playing #271 pace. SEC teams are 18-19 vs spread; Big X teams are 12-6 vs spread.
Purdue is 2-1, losing by 3 at home to Villanova, then scoring last 20 points of game to beat a decent Georgia State team by 8. Boilers start four juniors and a soph; they’re still shaky vs quickness/pressure. Utah State is 4-0 with only top 200 win at Cal-Irvine; they’ve made 39.1% of 3-pointers. Mountain West teams are 4-3 vs spread as an underdog; Big 14 teams are 8-13 vs spread as favorites. Big 14 teams won three of last four games vs MW teams, but are just 1-3 vs spread in those games.
Indiana was +23 (51-28) on boards in 90-65 home win over Fort Wayne LY; this game is in Fort Wayne, has to be a big deal to have Hoosiers coming there. Indiana beat Kansas in OT out in Hawai’i; they beat two other stiffs at home after that. Hoosiers are shooting 44.3% on arc, but also turning ball over 25% of time. Matadors lost by 9 at Arkansas, 18 at Illinois State; they’re not a strong defensive team, bad news vs Hoosiers. Fort Wayne has a senior PG who is very good but they also start two sophs. Summit League underdogs are 10-10 vs spread this month.
Armadillosports.com
Tuesday's Maui Action
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Wisconsin vs. Georgetown
Unranked Georgetown (2-2 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) raced out to a 38-21 halftime lead and held on to knock off No. 13-ranked Oregon 65-61 as a 9.5-point underdog in Monday’s Maui Classic opener. The Hoyas hooked up their money-line backers with a sweet +425 payout. Rodney Pryor scored was the catalyst with 26 points, 10 rebounds and four blocked shots. L.J. Peak added 17 points, six rebounds, four assists, three steals and one black. Georgetown limited the Ducks to 4-of-17 shooting from 3-point land (23.5%) and held them to a 39.0 field-goal percentage.
This will mark the third straight season that Wisconsin and Georgetown have met. John Thompson III had this to say about the Badgers after yesterday’s win, “Yeah, it’s becoming a conference game, that’s stating the obvious. They’re tough and they make you earn everything. Nothing ever is easy against them. And when you make mistakes, they make you pay. And then you take that and you add the fact that, like it is systematic, forget the system. They’ve got some really good players too.”
Georgetown is led by Pryor, a 6’5” transfer from Robert Morris who is averaging 19.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Pryor is shooting 55.8 percent from the field and 46.2 percent from 3-point range. Peak is scoring at a 17.5 PPG clip while making 40 percent of his 3’s and 83.3 percent of his free throws. Jessie Govan, a 6’10 sophomore center, is averaging 13.0 points and 6.2 RPG.
J.T. III’s squad came to the Maui Classic on a two-game losing streak after falling to Maryland (76-75) at Verizon Center and vs. Arkansas St. (78-72) at home. The Terrapins rallied from a nine-point deficit with 4:25 left thanks to four of Melo Trimble’s 22 points in the final 11 seconds. Trimble’s two free throws with seven ticks remaining provided the winning points. The Hoyas collected their other win over South Carolina Upstate (105-60) in a non-lined affair.
Wisconsin (3-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) collected a 74-62 win over Tennessee on Monday, but the Badgers failed to cover the number as a 13.5-point favorite. The 136 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 137.5-point total. Senior guard Bronson Koenig hit 9-of-15 shots and finished with 21 points, four assists and just one turnover. Nigel Hayes added 17 points, 10 rebounds, three blocked shots and two steals, while Ethan Happ contributed 16 points and six boards.
Hayes, a senior forward, is averaging 12.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. Meanwhile, Koenig is averaging a team-high 17.0 PPG.
Wisconsin came to Hawaii with a pair of non-lined home victories to its credit over Central Arkansas (79-47) and Chicago State (69-51). The Badgers lost 79-67 at Creighton as 1.5-point road favorites. Koenig had a team-best 21 points in the losing effort. Hayes added 16 points, five assists and four rebounds.
The ‘under’ is perfect 3-0 for the Hoyas in their three lined games.
Totals have been a wash (1-1) for the Badgers.
When these schools met last season at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 20, Georgetown won a 71-61 decision as a two-point underdog. The 132 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 132.5-point tally. Isaac Copeland led the Hoyas with 15 points and eight rebounds, while Govan added 13 points, five rebounds, three assists and three blocked shots. Reggie Cameron was also in double figures with 14 points.
As of early this morning, most offshores had Wisconsin installed as a 5.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 135.5.
ESPN2 will provide the broadcast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
Oklahoma State vs. North Carolina
As of early this morning, most offshores had North Carolina (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) listed as an 11-point favorite with a total of 171.5 for this battle of unbeatens at Lahaina Civic Center.
UNC played well past midnight Eastern last night. Roy Williams’s bunch avoided the fate other schools have dealt with when facing Chaminade in the past, most notably Ralph Sampson’s Virginia team in the early 1980s that fell victim to one of the biggest upsets in college basketball regular-season history. The Tar Heels won by a 104-61 count as 32-point favorites. Senior forward Isaiah Hicks had 22 points and six boards, while Kennedy Meeks produced 20 points and 10 rebounds. Tony Bradley, a 6’10 freshman power forward, contributed 14 points and eight boards in only 18 minutes of playing time. Bradley made 5-of-6 shots from the field.
Oklahoma State (4-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) advanced to the Maui Classic semifinals by beating UConn 98-90 as a four-point ‘chalk.’ The 188 combined points soared ‘over’ the 151-point total. Sophomore guard Jawun Evans erupted for 35 points, six assists, five steals, four rebounds and only one turnover. Jeffrey Carroll, a junior reserve swingman, had 18 points, eight boards and a pair of steals in 23 minutes of action. Phil Forte III, a fifth-year senior guard who was granted a medical redshirt last season, had 18 points and buried 3-of-4 attempts from long distance.
Evans is playing like one of the nation’s premier guards. He is averaging 26.3 points, 6.3 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 3.5 steals per game. Evans is draining 66.7 percent of his launches from 3-point land. Forte (21.0 PPG) is hitting 53.3 percent of his shots from the field and 42.9 percent of his 3-balls. Carroll is scoring at a 18.5 PPG clip and is pulling down 8.0 RPG. Carroll has made 66.7 percent of his shots, including 60.0 percent from behind the line.
Brad Underwood’s team is third in the nation in scoring (104.8 PPG) and it is making 41.0 percent of its 3’s.
Oklahoma State won its first three games at home, all of which were non-lined affairs. The Cowboys beat up on Campbell (102-65), Central Arkansas (102-90) and New Orleans (117-72).
UNC has wins at Tulane (95-75), vs. UT-Chattanooga (97-57), vs. Long Beach State (93-67) and at Hawaii (83-68).
According to the Associated Press, Williams had this to say about OSU following the win over Chaminade: “Now we’ve got a big-time challenge. I told (my team) it’s the big leagues tomorrow because Oklahoma State was really, really impressive tonight.”
The ‘under’ has cashed in four consecutive UNC games to improve to 4-1 overall.
Tip-off is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. Eastern tonight on ESPN.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Florida improved to 4-0 with Monday’s 78-61 win over Belmont as a 12.5-point ‘chalk’ at Amalie Arena in Tampa. Canyon Barry led the way with a team-best 17 points on 6-of-9 shooting in 21 minutes of playing time. KeVaughn Allen added 14 points for the Gators, who raced out to a 15-0 lead and were never threatened. John Egbunu scored 12 points and grabbed eight rebounds, while Devin Robinson was also in double figures with 11 points. UF looks big, fast and deep in Mike White’s second season.
The ‘under’ is now 3-0 in UF games after the 139 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 153.5-point total in the win over Belmont.
Georgia won its third consecutive game by beating George Washington 81-73 as a 4.5-point favorite Monday at Sprint Center in Kansas City. Yante Maten and J.J. Frazier, who are both first-team All-SEC candidates, scored 18 points apiece. Juwan Parker produced nine points, 11 rebounds and five assists compared to just one turnover. The Bulldogs will take on Kansas tonight at 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2. As of early this morning, one offshore had KU listed as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 148.
In other Maui Classic action today, Tennessee is a 12-point underdog vs. struggling Oregon for a 1:30 p.m. Eastern tip on ESPN2.
Also, UConn will take on Chaminade as an 18.5-point ‘chalk’ at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.