NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, November 29th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Maryland is 7-0, winning couple of neutral court games over week by total of 7 points; they also won by point at Georgetown. Terps beat K-State by point after trailing by 3 with 0:25 left; they’re starting three freshmen and a sophomore- jr PG Trimble is carrying them. Pitt is 5-1 with loss to SMU and 78-75 win over Marquette, their two top 100 games, both on a neutral court. Panthers are #24 experience team; they don’t force turnovers, are playing a slow tempo- this is their first true road game.
Chattanooga is 4-2 with win at Tennessee; they won by 17-11 in their two games vs teams not in top 200. Mocs force turnovers 22.5% of time but shoot 29.2% on arc- they also to Arkansas State and lost by 40 at UNC. Coastal Carolina is new to this site; they’re 2-4, with both wins vs teams in bottom 20 of country- their losses are by 17-7-16-12 points, with 71-64 loss to Charleston coming here. SoCon road favorites are 3-0 vs spread. Sun Belt underdogs are 9-9 vs spread, 0-1 at home.
Georgia Tech is on road for first time after a 4-1 start at home; loss was to #87 Ohio U, best win was by 8 over #142 Sam Houston. Tech has new coach, a rebuilding roster; they’re starting two freshmen. Penn State is 4-3, 3-1 at home, with loss to #163 Albany; Lions are forcing turnovers 21.1% of time, are in top 10 in country in foul shooting. ACC underdogs are 3-10 vs spread this month. Big 14 home favorites are 12-11.
Wisconsin is back from Maui; they’re 5-2, 1-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to North Carolina and Creighton, beating #63 Georgetown by 16 in Hawai’i. Badgers are turning ball over 20.4% of time (higher than usual) but are a top 10 rebounding team right now. Syracuse lost to South Carolina Saturday in Brooklyn; Orange start three seniors, two sophs. ACC underdogs are 3-10 vs spread this month. Big 14 home favorites are 12-11.
Rhode Island lost 58-55 at home to Valparaiso LY, in first game after Matthews was lost for year; Rams are 5-1 with 10-point loss to Duke on a neutral floor; they’ve beaten Cincinnati, Belmont- this is their first true road game, and Matthews is back, playing 29.5 mpg. Valpo is 6-1 with a loss at Oregon; they beat Alabama/BYU on neutral floor last week, beat Ball State by 6 at home Sunday. Crusaders start three seniors, two juniors; this is like an 8-9 NCAA 1st round game.
Tex-Arlington is best team in an improved Sun Belt; they’re 4-3 vs #55 schedule, with losses by 17-13-4 points at Minnesota/FGCU/Arkansas- they won by 4 at Fordham. Mavericks start three seniors, two juniors. UTA was just 5-29 on arc in 80-73 OT loss to Texas LY; they’ve lost five years in row to Longhorns, losing other four by 10-3-16-18 points. Texas lost couple of top 100 games in Brooklyn LW; their three wins are all vs teams outside the top 200.
Houston is 5-0 against an impressive bunch of stiffs (Vermont is best team they’ve beaten); this is first true road game for improved Cougars, who start two juniors, two seniors and have made 45.7% on arc this month. LSU lost two of three in Bahamas, losing to VCU/Wichita; they beat a decent Old Dominion team. Tigers are shooting only 30% on arc; they’re starting three sophs, two juniors. AAC favorites are 5-1 vs spread away from home.
NC State is 5-1 but thin until 7-footer Yurtseven becomes eligible in couple weeks; they lost by 16 to Creighton in only top 100 game so far. Wolfpack struggled to beat Loyola by hoop in their last game Saturday. State does have #31 eFG% so far this month- this is their first true road game. Illinois lost its last three games, losing by 32-11 points in Brooklyn over weekend. Illini also lost at home to Winthrop. Illinois starts four seniors, but is struggling.
Iowa allowed 87 pts/game in losses by 33-8 points on neutral floor in Florida over weekend; they also lost by 8 at home to Seton Hall- they’re 0-3 vs top 100 teams- their wins are against teams outside the top 300. Hawkeyes are a bottom 10 team in country in experience. Notre Dame is 6-0 with neutral court wins by 6-4 points over Colorado/Northwestern; Irish are #1 in country at protecting ball, #5 in country on foul line. Well-coached team.
Michigan State is 4-3, the #322 experience team playing the #14 schedule, a number that goes up after this game. Spartans’ losses are by 2-21-15 points; they’re turning ball over 22% of time. and this is their first true road game. State lost its last four games with Duke, by 10-10-20-5 points; last meetings were two years ago. Young Duke (#343 in bench minutes) has been hampered by injuries; they’re 6-1 with a 77-75 neutral court loss to Kansas.
Nevada was 27-43 on foul line in 85-82 double OT win at Pacific LY; that broke a 3-game skid against the Tigers are 2-2 this year with a new coach, playing much faster tempo. Wolf Pack lost final of Alaskan Shootout late Saturday night; this is early quick turnaround from that. Pacific is #326 experience team but they’re shooting just 38.7% inside arc. Tigers allowed 61.5 pts/game in winning both their home games, vs Green Bay/Wyoming- they lost their two road games.
Davidson beat Mercer 77-71 at home LY; Wildcats are 4-1 with a 95-78 loss to Clemson down in Orlando. Star guard Gibbs is just 6-28 on arc but is scoring 21 pts/game after missing first game with an injury. Davidson starts two sophs, two seniors- they hammered local rival Charlotte by 22 over weekend. Mercer starts five juniors; they split pair of games in Savannah over weekend, are 4-2, losing both top 100 games by 22-2 points.
Tennessee State is 6-0, with true road wins at Middle Tennessee/Santa Clara/Canisius; they’re #28 experience team in country- playing an SEC team on road is big deal for them. Tigers start three seniors, two juniors. Vanderbilt is just back splitting pair at Orleans Casino in Las Vegas; Commodores start three juniors and a senior. Vandy is 3-3 with a bad home loss to Bucknell. OVC road underdogs are 161-13 against the spread.
Armadillosports.com
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Syracuse at Wisconsin
As of early this morning, most betting shops had Wisconsin (5-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) installed as a 5.5-point home favorite vs. the ‘Cuse. The total was 124.5, but there wasn’t a money line yet.
Greg Gard’s team has beaten up on three cupcakes at home in non-lined affairs. Wisconsin lost 79-67 at Creighton on Nov. 15 as a 1.5-point road favorite. Senior guard Bronson Koenig had a team-high 21 points in defeat, while senior power forward Nigel Hayes finished with 16 points, five assists and four rebounds.
Wisconsin advanced to the Maui Classic finals thanks to wins over Tennessee (74-62) and Georgetown (73-57). However, the Badgers lost 71-56 to North Carolina as 4.5-point ‘dogs in the championship game. Koenig suffered through a nightmare performance, scoring just two points on 1-of-13 shooting from the field. He missed all five of his 3-point attempts. Hayes was held to single digits as well, finishing with eight points and five rebounds. He was 3-of-11 from the field and 1-of-7 from downtown. Vitto Brown scored 15 points for UW, while Ethan Happ had 13 points, six rebounds, four assists, four steals and two blocked shots.
Koenig is averaging a team-high 14.4 points per game, but he has a mediocre 12/12 assists-to-turnovers ratio. He’s hit only 24.6 percent of his 3’s. Happ (11.9 PPG, 9.4 RPG) is nearly averaging a double-double and is making 65.5 percent of his shots from the field. Hayes is averaging 11.6 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Those numbers aren’t good for Hayes and Koenig, who are two of the nation’s premier players. Look for those stats to improve soon.
Syracuse (4-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) lost for the first time this year Saturday at Barclays Arena in Brooklyn. The Orange went down to South Carolina 64-50 as an 8.5-point favorite. Sindarius Thornwell led the Gamecocks with 16 points, six rebounds, five assists and three steals. P.J. Dozier added 15 points, 10 boards and three steals. In the losing effort, Tyler Lydon had 18 points and seven rebounds, but he also committed six turnovers without dishing out an assist. Frank Howard and Andrew White III were also in double figures with 10 points.
Jim Boeheim’s team won its first four games at home over Colgate (83-55), Holy Cross (90-46), Monmouth (71-50) and South Carolina St. (101-59). The win over the Hawks as 12.5-point ‘chalk’ was the lone lined matchup. The ‘Cuse limited Monmouth star guard Justin Robinson to 11 points and 1-of-10 shooting from 3-point land. White, a grad transfer from Nebraska who also played at Kansas earlier in his collegiate career, had a team-best 18 points, six rebounds, four assists and two steals.
White is averaging 15.8 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. Lydon is scoring at a 11.4 PPG clip and is pulling down 7.2 RPG. Lydon, a sophomore forward, is 9-of-18 (50.0%) from behind the line and has a team-high seven rejections through five games.
The ‘under’ is 2-0 for the ‘Cuse. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 overall.
Michigan State at Duke
As of early this morning, most books had Duke (6-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) listed as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. There were no money-line prices listed yet.
Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski have squared off nine times during their respective Hall of Fame careers. Coach K has an 8-1 record versus Izzo.
Duke star junior guard Grayson Allen is listed as ‘questionable’ due to a toe injury. Allen is averaging 16.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game. The Blue Devils are also missing three true freshmen, including a pair of five-star recruits in Harry Giles (knee) and Jayson Tatum (foot). The entire trio has missed every game to date.
Duke is unbeaten in four home games at Cameron Indoor Stadium, going 2-1 ATS in the three lined contests. The Blue Devils are off of Saturday’s 93-58 win over Appalachian St. as a 30.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 151 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 153.5-point total. Allen played only 18 minutes but still produced 21 points, four rebounds and two assists without turnover. He buried 4-of-6 attempts from beyond the arc. Luke Kennard, a sophomore guard, finished with 18 points and nine rebounds thanks to 9-of-10 shooting from the free-throw line. Amile Jefferson contributed 15 points, six rebounds, five assists, two steals, one blocked shot and only one turnover.
Duke took its only loss to Kansas on Nov. 15 at Madison Square Garden in New York City. KU captured a 77-75 win as a 2.5-point underdog, while the 152 combined points went ‘under’ the 168-point tally. Frank Mason III hit a pull-up jumper in the lane with 1.8 seconds remaining to provide the winning points. Duke had rallied to pull even after trailing 65-55 with 5:48 remaining. Kennard paced the Blue Devils with a team-best 22 points. Allen had an off night with 12 points, three rebounds, three assists, one steal and one turnover. He shot just 4-of-15 from the field and 1-of-7 from 3-point range.
Duke won the Hall of Fame Tip-Off by defeating Rhode Island one day after beating Penn St. The Blue Devils won a 75-65 decision as 7.5-point favorites, while the 140 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 153-point total. Kennard drained 8-of-11 shots from the field and 4-of-5 from behind the line en route to scoring a game-high 24 points. Jefferson had 17 points and 15 rebounds.
Michigan St. (4-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) has played a brutal schedule to date, losing three neutral-court games to Arizona (65-63), Kentucky (69-48) and Baylor (73-58). The Spartans could’ve taken another defeat, but they were able to win a controversial game over Florida Gulf Coast, 78-77.
Izzo’s squad is off its best win of the year, defeating Wichita St. 77-72 as a 5.5-point underdog in Friday’s third-place game at The Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. Freshman forward Miles Bridges scored 21 points and hit 4-of-8 of his 3-point launches. Matt McQuaid, Eron Harris and Nick Ward added 13 points apiece.
Bridges is a five-star recruit who has been ‘as advertised.’ He is averaging 17.4 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. He is shooting at a 50.0-percent clip from the field and a 40-percent rate from downtown. Harris (12.7 PPG) is connecting on 43.2 percent of his 3’s.
The ‘under’ is a perfect 6-0 overall for the Blue Devils, 3-0 in their home outings.
The ‘under’ is 4-2 overall for the Spartans, who are playing their first true road game here.
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Butler picked up an excellent non-conference road win last night by going into Salt Lake City and beating Utah by a 68-59 count as a one-point road favorite. The 7-0 Bulldogs forced the Utes into 18 turnovers and held them to abysmal 3-of-20 shooting (15.0%) from 3-point land. Kelan Martin had a team-high 18 points, while Tyler Wildeman pitched in 15 points.
Boise State led nearly the entire game at Oregon last night, only to come up on the wrong end of a 68-63 decision. Leon Rice’s bunch easily took the cash as an 18-point road underdog, but BSU money-line backers lost out on an outstanding chance to cash a sick 14/1 ticket. Paris Austin had a team-best 16 points, while senior power forward Nick Duncan finished with 15 on 5-of-13 shooting from downtown. Dylan Ennis’s 18 points and six rebounds paced the Ducks.
Kentucky stroked Arizona State 115-69 last night in the Bahamas. If you didn’t see the highlight yet, UK freshman Malik Monk made one of the sickest passes you’ll ever see. He finished with a team-high 23 points, while Isaiah Briscoe produced 20 points, four rebounds, three steals and seven assists compared to only one turnover. De’Aaron Fox had a triple-double with 14 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists.