NCAAB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, December 7th, 2016

NCAAB Knowledge

Six of Indiana State’s seven D-I games were decided by 3 or less points or in OT. Indiana State is 4-4 vs schedule #65; only one of its seven D-I games (W63-52 Northern Illinois) games was at home. Sycamores are shooting only 30.8% on arc. Butler beat Indiana State by 23-14 points last two years; Bulldogs are 8-0 with 68-59 win at Utah in their only true road game- they also beat Vandy/Arizona on neutral floor in Las Vegas. Butler are forcing turnovers 24.8% of time (#9 in US)- they start three seniors, two juniors.

Boston College beat Harvard by 13-7 points the last two years after losing four in row to Crimson before that; BC is 4-3 with 88-70 over Dartmouth- they’re 3-1 vs teams outside top 150, with disturbing home loss to #307 Nicholls State. Eagles are turning ball over 22.1% of the time. Harvard is #339 experience team turning ball over 23.1% of time; they lost by 4 to UMass in only true road game so far- they did beat Fordham/Northeastern in last two games. Crimson is starting three freshmen and a sophomore.

Georgia Tech outscored VCU 24-12 on foul line in 77-64 home win over the Rams LY, game that was tied at half. Tech is in a total rebuild now, with new coach- they lost last two games, by 23-7 points, their first true road games of season- they turn ball over 21.3% of time. VCU lost 64-46 to Illinois on a neutral floor Saturday, going 2-18 on arc; Rams are 4-0 vs teams outside top 100, winning by 15-5-39-6 points. A-14 home favorites are 12-23 vs spread. ACC underdogs are 5-11 away from home.

George Washington lost four of last six games; they’re 0-3 vs top 100 teams, with three of four losses by 8 or less points. Colonails have an interim coach, are turning ball over 22.2% of time. Best team GW has beaten so far is #110 Siena. Temple won its last five games with couple of top 30 wins in there; Owls Temple won its last six games with GW; teams last met four years ago. Colonials lost last three visits here by 13-13-7 points. AAC home favorites are 8-5 vs spread. A-14 road underdogs are 6-6.

SMU outscored TCU 8-0 over final 3:07 of game LY in 75-70 win at TCU; Frogs had led by 12 points in first half. TCU 8-0 this year under new coach Dixon against schedule #262; they’re forcing turnovers 26.2% of time (#3 in US), won only true road game by 4 at UNLV- they also beat Washington on neutral floor. SMU is 6-3 vs schedule #108; they’re 3-2 vs top 10 teams, are playing #322 tempo under Jankovich, also a new coach. AAC home favorites are 8-5 vs spread. Big X underdogs are 8-3 vs spread away from home.

Illinois State is 4-2, losing its two road games, by 3 at Murray State, 9 at TCU. Redbirds are #78 experience team that is shooting 39.2% (#40) on arc but turning ball over 20.8% of time (#248). ISU starts three juniors and a senior. Tulsa lost 7 of its top 8 scorers from LY; they’re 3-3 this year, turning ball over 24.2% of time (#343). Hurricane lost their only top 150 games, by 10 to Little Rock, 27 to Wichita State. MVC favorites are 3-6 vs spread away from home; Missouri Valley home underdogs are 2-1.

Loyola, IL seems like an improved team this year, beating San Diego State in last game; they’re 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with three wins by 13+ points. Ramblers force turnovers 22.1% of the time; they start three juniors, one senior. Wright State fired its coach after a 22-13 season LY; Raiders are 6-3 for new coach Nagy, losing by 7 at Georgia State, 22 at Penn State in last two games. Wright is #80 experience team but is turning ball over 21.5% of time and is shooting just 43.8% inside the arc.

Creighton won its last five games with Nebraska, winning 64-42/65-55 in last two visits to Lincoln; Bluejays are 8-0 this season, but this is their first true road game. Creighton is making 44.8% of its 3’s (#3 in US), has #2 eFG% in country; they’ve got three top 100 wins, including win over Wisconsin. Nebraska is 1-3 vs top 50 teams, losing by 11-13-2 points; their only top 100 win was by hoop over Dayton on a neutral floor. Cornhuskers starts four sophs, one senior; they’re shooting 31.3% on arc, have #284 eFG% in country. Not good. This game is for state championship of Nebraska, kind of.

Xavier is 7-1 vs schedule #59 but got hammered by 15 at Baylor Saturday in its first true road game; Xavier’s bench plays 2nd-fewest minutes in country, which could be factor in high altitude here. Musketeers force turnovers 21.4% of time; they’re 3-1 vs top 10 teams, beating Clemson on a neutral and beating Northern Iowa twice. Colorado is 6-2 vs schedule #288 which includes a home loss to Colorado State; Buffs have #18 eFG% defense in country. Colorado split pair of top 100 games on neutral floor in NYC, losing to Notre Dame but beating Texas.

#176 Long Beach State is still ranked as the #2 team in Big West, despite fact that they’re 0-9 vs D-I teams, having played hardest schedule in America, but they also lost to Binghamton on a neutral floor and at Fla Gulf Coast. 49ers are starting two freshmen, one soph; they’re turning ball over 23.2 % of time- when you’re 1-9, there are no good stats. Long Beach lost 77-75 LY at Pepperdine, when Waves made 9-20 on arc, only 6-15 on line. Pepperdine lost its last three games, allowing 88.3 pts/game; they’re #75 experience team, should be doing better.

PG Nigel Williams-Goss transferred from Washington to Gonzaga; he will be center of attention in this game, a regional rivalry of sorts. Zags were 30-44 on foul line in 80-64 win over Huskies LY in Bahamas tourney- game was 44-27 at half. Gonzaga is 8-0 this season with neutral court wins over Florida/Iowa State/Arizona; they’ve got #24 eFG% defense in country. Washington is #341 experience team playing 36 tempo, so they go too fast. Huskies just lost twice to TCU, by 13-15 points, losing 86-71 in Fort Worth in their first true road game of season.

Seton Hall won 68-57 over Hawai’i last night; seven kids played 21:00+, only two played more than 30:00. Pirates are 6-2 but 1-2 vs top 100 teams, with 66-52 neutral floor loss to Stanford, Cal’s biggest rival. Seton hall starts four juniors who won Big East conference tourney nine months ago. Cal was down a hoop at half to Princeton last nite, won by 11; Golden Bears got injured bird back last night, are almost back to full strength- they played five guys 28:00+ last night. Cal has #3 eFG% defense because they have NBA-level rim protector on defense.

Northern Iowa lost its last four games with two losses to Xavier, then disturbing losses to George Mason/Wyoming; Panthers are #103 experience team playing #103 tempo; they’re forcing turnovers 25.3% of time (#6 in US) but are shooting dreadful 39.5% inside arc, which is awful. South Dakota State has new coach for first time in 22 years; they’re 4-6 with couple of non-D-I wins. Jackrabbits start a freshman, two sophs- they lost by 29-12 points in only two top 100 games. Summit League road underdogs are 14-19 against the spread.

Armadillosports.com

Gonzaga hosts rival Washington
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox,com

Gonzaga looks to keep their undefeated season rolling as they host Pac 12 and in-state foe Washington.

Sitting just a one hour flight from each other, Washington will travel to Gonzaga as these two powers of the Evergreen State will face off for the second year in a row. The Washington/Gonzaga rivalry had been an annual occasion in the late 90’s and earlier 2000’s, but the two stopped playing each other after 2006, only to resume with Gonzaga winning (80-64, Zags -9.5) at the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas last season. The teams agreed in 2014 to renew the rivalry (starting officially this year through ’19-20). Including last season’s victory in the Bahamas, the Bulldogs have owned this “rivalry” (8-1, 7-2 ATS) since 1996. Headlining this game will be Gonzaga’s junior G Nigel Williams-Goss facing off against his former team and coach in Lorenzo Romar’s Huskies. Williams-Goss starred for two years in Seattle, an all-league performer in 2014-15, before shockingly announcing his intentions to transfer before last season. Williams-Goss and Gonzaga will have to deal with the new face of Washington basketball, freshman phenom G Markelle Fultz. Already having dispatched of one Pac 12 foe this weekend (Arizona, 69-62, Zags -5), Gonzaga will be a favorite in a building where they are 162-13 overall. While the McCarthey Center is one of the best home court advantages in college basketball, the Bulldogs did drop a surprising four contests at home last season (6-7 ATS at home). While Washington won’t be glad to have to visit the McCarthey Center, they’ll be happy to not see TCU again. The Huskies will have gone 12 days without playing anyone but the Horned Frogs and dropped both games against TCU in that span, 90-83 (Wash +1.5) in Las Vegas and 86-71 (Wash +7) at TCU on the 30th. Given their largest period of rest all season (7 days), the young Huskies will have fresh legs against their toughest opponent of the season. The Huskies are 3-4 ATS this season and do not own a Power-7 conference win this season.

The former face of the program (Williams-Goss) facing off against the current face of the program (Fultz) should alone make for must-see television on Wednesday night. Williams-Goss was a McDonald’s All-American with a choir boy reputation (he spurned Harvard to stay in the Pacific Northwest and start as a freshman from day one in Seattle) who’s since turned villain for doing a complete heel-turn and transferring – to reviled Gonzaga no less – at the conclusion of the 2014-15 season. Who knows what might’ve been in Seattle last season had Williams-Goss also been on a roster with graduated Andrew Andrews and NBA draft picks Dejounte Murray and Marquese Chriss. While Washington is having a very tough season, one thing that can be said for Coach Romar is that he’s one heck of a recruiter, as better than any aforementioned name in this paragraph is current Husky wunderkind, Fultz. Owner of a surreal stat line (22.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 6.6 APG), the 6’4” freshman is a lock to be a lottery pick, and his situation eerily resembles last season’s number 1 pick in the NBA Draft, Ben Simmons. Fultz is a do-everything talent surrounded by a mediocre roster. Everything seems to come easy for Fultz, who glides along the court getting to his spots without much resilience and scoring with scary efficiency (54% FG). One night he could threaten for a triple-double, the next he could go for 35. Lost in his offensive fireworks is that Fultz is a willing defender, averaging 2.1 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. Overall defense has been the Achilles heel for the Romar-coached Huskies for years now, and this season is no different as five of their seven opponents have shot 46% or better from the field. The Huskies allow just shy of 80 PPG, which is good for 238th in the country. On offense, Washington just hasn’t been able to put it all together in one game. They shot 46% FG and 82% (10-for-12) from three and still lost to TCU the second time around. The culprit: 38% FT (7-for-18) and 25 turnovers. Washington can be generally very careless with the ball (15 TO/G, 269th NCAA).

Williams-Goss (12.5 PPG, 4.6 APG) against his former squad is the headliner for this game, but Gonzaga’s success this season should tell you all you need to know as to why the junior guard left Seattle to move east. His numbers are down from the 15.6 PPG – 4.9 RPG – 5.6 APG all-league season in his last year as a Husky, but after two seasons of no postseason basketball, Williams-Goss obviously felt he had a better chance at an NCAA title in Spokane. He’ll have his hands full trying to contain his counterpart, the electric Markelle Fultz, but unlike Fultz, Williams-Goss has plenty of help. G Josh Perkins (13.1 PPG, 51.3 3PT) has made solid improvements in his junior season and gained the trust of Coach Mark Few, playing all 40 minutes in Gonzaga’s win over Arizona on Saturday. Perhaps the biggest boon to Gonzaga’s optimism this season has been the re-emergence of seven-foot senior C Przemek Karnowski (11.6 PPG) after an injury plagued junior season that resulted in back surgery. Karnowski played a season-high 25 minutes and poured in a game-high of 18 points against Arizona. This game against up-and-down Washington might not be the best fit for the lumbering center, but if Gonzaga can slow the pace down then Karnowski will be able to punish the smaller Huskies. Karnowski had 12 points (6-for-8 FG) and six rebounds in their early-season meeting last season before hurting his back. Freshman F Zach Collins (11.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 69.8% FG in 17 minutes) is arguably the second most-coveted NBA prospect in this game (behind Fultz) and hasn’t disappointed coming off the bench for Coach Few this season. Collins posted eight points and eight rebounds and two blocks in just 15 minutes. If Collins decides to return for his sophomore season in Spokane he’ll be a potential All-American. Gonzaga’s strength on the defensive side of the ball will serve them well against fast-paced Washington. The Bulldogs have held all of their opponents under 44% FG and contained Florida and Arizona to under 39% each from the field. Gonzaga’s last two opponents (MVSU, Arizona) are just 4-of-26 from three.

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Davidson at North Carolina

North Carolina (8-1 straight up, 5-2 against the spread) is seventh in the Associated Press rankings and No. 17 in the RPI. The Tar Heels won the Maui Classic with wins over Chaminade (104-61), Oklahoma State (107-75) and Wisconsin (71-56). They also rolled to an 83-68 win at Hawaii two days before the Maui Classic started.

North Carolina will be without star point guard Joel Berry II, who is averaging 14.8 points, 4.7 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game. The junior sprained his ankle in Sunday’s 95-50 win over Radford.

As of early this morning, most books had UNC listed as a 15.5-point ‘chalk,’ while one offshore shop had a total of 154.

One week after knocking off the Badgers in Hawaii, Roy Williams’s squad took its first loss at Indiana. The Hoosiers won a 76-65 decision as 5.5-point home underdogs at Assembly Hall in Bloomington. The 143 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 164.5-point tally. Justin Jackson led the Tar Heels with 21 points and eight boards.

UNC has won all three of its home games at the Dean Smith Center, going 2-0 ATS. In Sunday’s victory over Radford, Kenny Williams scored 19 points on 5-of-6 shooting from downtown. The sophomore guard has hit 13-of-26 shots from 3-point land after going 1-of-13 from beyond the arc last season. Kennedy Meeks added 13 points and nine rebounds.

UNC is 3-1-1 ATS in its five games as a double-digit favorite.

Davidson (5-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) is led by senior point guard Jack Gibbs, who is averaging 23.3 points, 4.3 assists and 1.2 steals per game. The Wildcats have another elite player in junior forward Peyton Aldridge, who is averaging 19.7 points and 7.3 rebounds per game.

Bob McKillop’s squad has been an underdog once this year, losing 95-78 to Clemson while catching 3.5 points in Kissimmee, Fla. Aldridge had 22 points and eight boards, while Gibbs finished with 18 points and four assists before fouling out.

Davidson has wins over Missouri (70-55) and Arizona State (68-60) in Florida and it also won 78-57 at Mercer as a four-point road favorite. The Wildcats’ other loss came in their last outing, a 76-61 loss Sunday at College of Charleston. Gibbs had 23 points and five boards in the losing effort, while Aldridge finished with 21 points and eight rebounds.

The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for UNC, 2-0 in its home contests.

The ‘under’ is 4-3 overall for the Wildcats, 1-1 in its two true road assignments.

Davidson is seventh in the country in free-throw shooting (79.8%). Meanwhile, UNC is eighth in the nation in scoring (90.2 points per game) and 12th in field-goal percentage (50.6%).

Tip-off in Chapel Hill is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

Washington at Gonzaga

As of early this morning, most betting shops had Gonzaga (8-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) installed as a 15.5-point favorite. One offshore book had the total at 165.5.

Mark Few’s team will host its in-state rival tonight at The McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane. This is the first time these schools, which are separated by just 279 miles, have square off on another’s home court in a decade. They last met at the Battle 4 Atlantis last season with the Bulldogs collecting an 80-64 win as 9.5-point favorites.

Gonzaga has won nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings going back to the Casey Calvary Era (1998), producing an 8-2 spread record.

Gonzaga’s Nigel Williams-Goss, a transfer from UW, will be facing his former school. Williams-Goss is the Bulldogs’ second-leading scorer, averaging 12.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game. Josh Perkins is the team’s leading scorer (13.1 PPG) who has drained 20-of-39 attempts from 3-point land (51.3%). Zach Collins, a seven-foot freshman center, is also averaging in double figures (11.1 PPG), as is Missouri transfer Johnathan Williams (10.0 PPG).

Gonzaga won the AdvoCare Invitational in Kissimmee with wins over Quinnipiac (82-62), Florida (77-72) and Iowa State (73-71). Williams-Goss was the catalyst in the finals against the Cyclones, producing 18 points, four boards and four assists.

Washington (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) is looking to avoid a third consecutive loss. The back-to-back defeats, both of which came to TCU, were preceded by a four-game winning streak after the Huskies lost their opener to Yale, 98-90, as 14.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The Horned Frogs beat UW 93-80 at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas on Nov. 26 and then took it to the Huskies again 86-71 in Ft. Worth on Nov. 30.

Washington is led by freshman guard Markelle Fultz, a five star recruit who is averaging team-bests in scoring (22.7 PPG), assists (6.6 APG) and steals (2.1 SPG). Fultz is making 54.0 percent of its shots from the field and 48.1 percent from 3-point range. Fultz, who is also blocking 1.4 shots per game, scored a career-high 35 points vs. Cal-State Fullerton and also dropped 30 on Yale in the opener.

Noah Dickerson, UW’s sophomore forward who was originally signed by Billy Donovan in his last recruiting haul for Florida, was released from his letter of intent when Donovan bolted for the NBA. Dickerson has thrived with the Huskies and is averaging 11.3 points and 7.1 RPG while making a team-high 57.9 percent of his attempts from the floor.

Washington is winless both SU and ATS in both of its underdog spots, both of which came to TCU.

The ‘over’ is 4-3 overall for the Huskies, but they saw the ‘under’ cash in their only road game.

The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for Gonzaga, 1-0 in its one home game with a total.

Tip-off is scheduled for 11:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Rhode Island star Hassan Martin is out indefinitely with a quadriceps injury. “The senior forward has begun treatment and rehab with the timetable of a full recovery and return to the court,” said a statement released by the school. Martin averages 16.1 points and 8.1 RPG. He’s third in the nation in blocked shots, rejecting 3.9 balls per game.

Luke Kennard’s timely shooting sparked Duke to an 84-74 win over Florida as a 7.5-point favorite Tuesday at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Kennard scored 29 points on electric 11-of-16 shooting from the field, including five 3-balls on just seven launches. Kennard looked like a combination of former Warrior stars Chris Mullin and Sarunas Marciulionis. The 158 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 147.5-point tally. Amile Jefferson added 24 points and 15 rebounds, while Jayson Tatum produced 22 points, eight rebounds and three steals in his second collegiate game. The Gators were led by sophomore guard KeVaughn Allen, who had 21 points on 8-of-12 attempts from the field. Kasey Hill had 13 points, seven rebounds and five assists.

In the lid-lifter of the Jimmy V Classic at MSG, Purdue smashed Arizona State 97-64 as an 11.5-point ‘chalk.’ Isaac Haas led the way with 16 points and seven rebounds. Vince Edwards came off the bench to contribute 16 points, five rebounds, three assists and two steals in 21 minutes of playing time.

Florida Atlantic went into Columbus last night and stunned Ohio State 79-77 in overtime as a 20.5-point road underdog. The Owls won on Nick Rutherford’s shot in the lane that he kissed home off the glass with one second remaining. They cashed monster +2125 tickets for their money-line backers at 5Dimes.eu (risk $100 to win $2,125!).

The defending national champs improved to 9-0 with last night’s 89-79 win over La Salle at the Palestra in Philadelphia. Villanova’s Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart paced the winners with 26 and 21 points, respectively. Jay Wright’s program won its 17th consecutive Big Five game, but the Explorers covered the number as 17.5-point underdogs. For those not familiar with Philly hoops, members of the Big Five in the City of Brotherly love include Villanova, La Salle, Penn, Temple and Saint Joseph’s. The Wildcats face Notre Dame in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Saturday. Phil Booth missed his fifth consecutive game with a knee injury.

Harvard took the cash in last night’s 86-80 over Northeastern as a 2.5-point home favorite. Seth Towns led the way for the Crimson with 24 points, six rebounds, three assists and two steals. Siyani Chambers added 13 points and 11 assists compared to merely one turnover. Corey Johnson finished with 21 points on stellar 7-of-10 shooting from downtown.