NCAAB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, February 15th, 2017

NCAAB Knowledge

Xavier is without Somner for year; now Bluiett is a ??? here (check status). Musketeers won five of last six games, are 3-2 on Big East road, losing at Villanova/Butler. Providence lost four of last six games, is 3-3 at home in league, 2-1-1 as a home dog. Friars are 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight games. Xavier made 24-33 shots inside arc, crushed Providence 82-56 in Big East opener Dec 28; home sides are now 6-1 in series games, with Musketeers winning last four series games, by 9-7-11-26 points- they lost two of three visits here, winning 75-68 LY.

South Carolina won five of last six games; they’re 3-3 as home favorites, winning home games by 11-11-4-29-2 with 4OT loss to Alabama. Gamecocks force turnovers on 26% of possessions in league games. Arkansas is 4-2 on SEC road, 3-1 as a road dog, with losses by 26 at Kentucky, 5 at Missouri- their four SEC road wins are by total of 15 points. Hogs/SC split last 14 meetings; Razorbacks lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 12-6-4-7-21 points- two of those losses were in OT. SEC home favorites of 8+ points are 9-15 vs spread this season.

Maryland lost two of last three games, but covered nine of last ten; Terrapins are 5-0 as Big 14 road underdogs- their only road loss was by 6 at Penn State. Northwestern had great win at Wisconsin Sunday, their 3rd game without leading scorer Lindsey; Wildcats are 3-2 as home favorite- they lost to Minnesota/Illinois at home, shaky losses. Maryland is 3-0 vs Northwestern in Big 14 tilts, winning 72-59 in first visit here LY. Big 14 home favorites of 3 or less points are 12-10 against the spread this season.

Iowa State split its last eight games, is 3-3 on Big X road, 4-1 as a road underdog, with losses on road by 2-7-2 points. Kansas State lost four of last five games; dogs are 5-0-1 vs spread in their Big X home games- they’re 0-3-1 as home favorites. Cyclones blew a 20-point second half lead, then outscored K-State 13-7 over last 5:00 in 70-65 home win Jan 24. Cyclones won last three series games by 13-19-5 points- they lost three of last four visits to Little Apple, winning 76-63 here LY. Big X home favorites of 5 or less points are 6-7-1 vs spread this season.

NC State PG Smith got in foul trouble early, Wolfpack got hammered 107-56 in Chapel Hill Jan 8; game was 33-7 at one point. Carolina won three in row, seven of last eight series games- they won last three visits to Raleigh, by 14-2-12 points. Wolfpack lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread) amidst rumors that Gottfried will be fired; they’re 2-4 at home in ACC, 1-1 as a home underdog, 2-6 as an ACC dog overall. Carolina hasn’t played in six days; they’re 1-4 as an ACC road favorite. Double digit favorites are 11-14 in ACC games, 3-3 on road.

Seton Hall lost six of last nine games, with two of wins in OT; Pirates are 4-1 at home in Big East with only loss to Butler by 7. Creighton won three of last four games, is 5-1 on Big East road, even with star Watson OFY- they’re 3-1 as a road favorite. Creighton was +8 in turnovers (18-10), shot 68% inside arc in beating Seton Hall 89-75 in Big East opener Dec 28; teams have split eight Big East meetings. Bluejays won two of three visits to the Garden State. Big East road favorites of 3 or less points are 3-5 vs spread this season.

Indiana lost five of its last six games, is 1-4 on Big 14 road, 1-2 as a road underdog, losing on foreign soil by 3-30-13-5 points- their only win in last six games was in triple OT. Minnesota won its last three games by 9-12-9 points; they’re 2-2 as a home favorite, losing three of five Big 14 home games SU. Indiana won its last three games with Minnesota by 19-7-6 points; Hoosiers lost five of last seven visits to Twin Cities, but won 70-63 here LY. Big 14 home favorites of 6 or less points are 20-14 vs spread this season.

TCU won three of last four games, is 4-2 at home in Big X, losing to Kansas/Baylor; Frogs are 2-2 as a home favorite. Oklahoma State won five of last six games, winning last three on road. Cowboys are 5-1 vs spread on Big 14 road. OSU never trailed in 89-76 home win over TCU Jan 23; game was tied with 12:00 left. Cowboys are 7-2 in Big X series games, losing by 15-7 points in last two visits here- home teams are 7-2 in series games, winning last five meetings. Big X road teams are 9-5 vs spread in games where number was 2 or less points.

Virginia lost two of last three games but won last four at home; they’re 3-2 as home favorites, beating Louisville by 16 in last home tilt. Duke won its last five games, winning by 8-8-2 points in three games since Coach K returned. Blue Devils are 1-4 vs spread on road, 0-2 as road dogs. Duke is 3-2 in its last five games with Virginia, after winning previous eight series games; Blue Devils won four of last five games at Virginia- five of last six series games were decided by 6 or less points. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 12-9 vs spread this season.

Nevada lost its last two road games; star G Marshall was 2-22 on arc in those games. Wolf Pack is 3-3 on MW road, 1-2 as a road favorite, with road wins by 1-15-19 points. Air Force lost four in row, seven of last eight games; they’re 3-3 at home in MW (2-1 as home underdog), with losses by 9-7-4 at home. Nevada blew a 17-point 2nd half lead, held Air Force off 83-76 at home Jan 18; Wolf Pack won seven of last eight series games- they split four series tilts in Clune Arena. Mountain West road favorites are 8-9 vs spread this season.

San Diego State won three of last four games but is 2-4 on MW road, 1-2 as road favorite, with wins by 13 at UNLV, 3 at Fresno. Aztecs made 10-24 on arc in 74-55 home win over Utah State Jan 14; Aztecs are 8-0 vs Aggies in Mountain West games, winning last two trips to Logan by 5-3 points. Utah State won three of last five games, winning last three home games, scoring 77.7 pts/game- they’re 5-2 vs spread at home, 2-0 as a home underdog. Mountain West road favorites are 8-9 against the spread this season.

NC-Greensboro had its 6-game win streak snapped in 93-74 loss at Wofford Jan 24; Terriers made 11-25 on arc, scored whopping 1.35 pts/poss. Wofford won five of last six series games, but lost two of last three visits to Greensboro. Terriers are 2-4 on SoCon road; underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in those games. Wofford’s two road wins were at Citadel/Mercer. UNCG is 4-2 at home, 1-3 as a home favorite; their losses were to Samford/Furman. SoCon home favorites of 3 or less points are 6-4 vs spread this season.

Fort Wayne is 3-5 in its last eight games; two of their last three went OT. Mastodons are 2-4 as home favorites, with home wins by 11-4-30-7 points. North Dakota State won five of last seven games, is 3-2 on Summit road, with losses at Denver, IUPUI. Bison was 13-22 on arc in 89-83 home win over Fort Wayne Jan 19; Mastodons were 16-31 on arc and lost by six!!!! Home side won 10 of last 11 series games; Bison lost last three visits to Ft Wayne, by 11-6-5 points. Summit League home favorites of 6 or less points are 16-13 vs spread this season.

Armadillosports.com

Trends to Watch - Wednesday
VegasInsider.com

West Meets East...err, South

Arkansas heads east to meet South Carolina in a battle between two teams with at least 18 victories. Both of these sides will be dancing in March, and now it's just a matter of how they'll be seeded. A quality win will go a long way toward securing a solid line in the NCAA Tournament.

The Razorbacks haven't been able to piece together lengthy streaks against the number. The Hogs are 2-5 ATS in their past seven after a straight up win, and they're 1-4 ATS in their past five following a cover. The Gamecocks haven't been very good against the number lately, either, as they're 1-3-1 ATS in their past five as favorites and 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning straight up record. However, South Carolina is 7-0 ATS in their past seven home games against teams with a winning road mark. The ranked 'Cocks are also 17-8-1 ATS in their past 26 against teams with a winning percentage over .600.

The road team has cashed in four of the past five meetings in this series, although Arkansas is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Columbia. If you're considering the total, the 'under' is 5-1 in the past six meetings. However, the 'over' is 4-0 in South Carolina's past four games overall, and 4-0 in their past four as a favorite. On the flip side, the 'under' is 10-4 in Arkansas' past 14 road outings, and 8-3 in their past 11 as an underdog.

Triangle Tussle

North Carolina takes the quick jaunt east on Interstate 40 over to PNC Arena to battle North Carolina State. As of Tuesday night the Tar Heels are favored by 10 1/2 points. The Heels will be mighty ornery after slipping up in the first installment of the Battle of the Blue against rival Duke. UNC might be in better shape health-wise, as F Isaiah Hicks (hamstring) might be able to return after being a no-show in the Duke game due to a hamstring ailment. If Hicks remains on the shelf it would be senior F Kennedy Meeks being asked to pick up the slack.

It will be head coach Roy Williams' 500th game on the sidelines as coach of UNC. The Heels haven't been very good against the number lately, going 0-4 ATS in their past four on the road, 0-4 ATS in their past four league games and 1-4 ATS in their past five as a favorite. They're also 1-5 ATS in their past six as a road favorite. The Wolfpack haven't been much better, however. While they were able to something UNC couldn't do - beat Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium - the Pack are 1-4 ATS in their past five home games and 0-4 ATS in their past four as an underdog. N.C. State is also a dismal 0-5 ATS in their past five overall, and 0-5 ATS in their past five against teams with a straight up winning mark. UNC has cashed in nine of their past 13 trips to Raleigh, and the favorite is 14-6 ATS in the past 20 in this series. While the 'over' has connected in four of the past five at PNC Arena, the 'under' is 4-0 in the past four meetings overall.

American Oxygen

Cincinnati is in action at South Florida. For most of the season the Bearcats were the only team getting national attention in the AAC. However, Southern Methodist has burst on the scene, and they're in action against Tulane. The Mustangs are coming off a 60-51 win against the Bearcats, their seventh consecutive cover. SMU is an impressive 8-0-1 ATS over their past nine outings, too. That one push came in an 80-64 victory at Tulane on Jan. 15.

The Green Wave limp in with a 4-20 SU record, although they have been a good value on the road lately. Tulane is 4-1 ATS in their past five road games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five as a road underdog. SMU is 13-3 ATS in their past 16 games at home, while going an impressive 20-5-1 ATS in their past 26 as a favorite. They're also 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven against teams with a losing overall record. The public has bet down the number from 26 to 23 1/2 as of early Wednesday morning, but the Green Wave are 0-5 ATS in their past five trips to the Metroplex and 0-3-1 ATS in the past four meetings overall. The favorite is an impressive 14-2-1 in the past 17 in this series.

If you like to bet totals, the 'under' is 10-4-1 in the past 15 in this series, and 5-0-1 in the past six meetings at SMU.

The Bearcats will hit the road for USF, licking their wounds after a 60-51 loss at SMU on Sunday. The last time these teams met, Cincinnati emasculated South Florida by a 94-53 score as 25-point favorites on their home court. The 'over' hit in that meeting. That's been a familiar theme for USF, as the over is 7-1 in their past eight overall, 7-1 in their past eight as an underdog and 4-1 in their past five at home. However, the under is a perfect 4-0 in the past four meetings in the Sun Dome.

Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in their past five games as a favorite of 13 or more points, and they're a perfect 5-0 ATS in their past five against teams with a losing overall mark. However, the Bearcats are a dismal 1-5 ATS in their past six trips to Tampa, and 4-13 ATS in the past 17 meetings overall. The underdog has hit in six of the past eight overall in this series.

In Other Action...

Oklahoma State takes on Texas Christian in Fort Worth looking to sweep the regular season series. The Cowboys won 89-76 in Stillwater on Jan. 23, covering a 4 1/2-point number. TCU hasn't had a lot of success against the spread recently, going 2-6 ATS over the past eight and 2-4 ATS in their past six at home. The Cowboys have been much better, going 6-1 SU/ATS over their past seven games overall.

Illinois State is going to be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament for someone, whether it is in the first round or later. They head to Missouri State in a key Missouri Valley Conference battle, and they're favored by just 3 1/2. The Redbirds are 8-1 ATS in their past nine on the road, but just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games overall. Still, they're 7-0 ATS in their past seven as a road favorite. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their past seven at home, and 1-4 ATS in their past five against winning teams. Perhaps the reason Illinois State is favored by so little is because they're just 2-6 ATS in the past eight meetings, and 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to JQH Arena in Springfield, Mo.

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Maryland at Northwestern

Maryland and Northwestern are poised to do battle in a crucial Big Ten showdown tonight at Welsh-Ryan Arena in Evanston. The Terrapins are 9-3 in league play, leaving them one game back of conference-leading Wisconsin and its 10-2 record. The Wildcats are 8-4 in Big Ten play, two games back of the Badgers.

As of early this morning, most books had Northwestern (19-6 straight up, 15-7 against the spread) installed as a two-point favorite.

Chris Collins’s team will be without junior guard Scottie Lindsey (mono) for a fourth consecutive game. Lindsey averages 15.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Northwestern had won six in a row both SU and ATS before Lindsey was injured. Since then, the Wildcats have lost two of three both SU and ATS.

Northwestern dropped its first two games without Lindsey, only to go into Madison on Sunday and win a 66-59 decision as an 11.5-point road underdog. Bryant McIntosh was the catalyst with 25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists compared to just two turnovers. Vic Law and Dererk Pardon chipped in 11 points apiece while combining to grab 14 rebounds.

Barring an epic collapse down the stretch, Northwestern is en route to its first NCAA Tournament bid in school history. The Wildcats are No. 34 in the RPI Rankings, producing a 1-4 record against the Top 25, a 3-5 mark versus the Top 50 and an 8-6 ledgers against the Top 100. They have quality road wins at Wisconsin, at Penn State, at Nebraska and at Ohio State. In addition, the Wildcats have home wins over Wake Forest, Nebraska and Indiana, in addition to a road scalp of Dayton. They have just one loss to an opponent with an RPI lower than No. 41, falling 68-61 at home to Illinois (No. 66) without Lindsey.

McIntosh (14.0 points per game) is Northwestern’s second-leading scorer behind Lindsey. He has a 140/67 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Law averages 13.5 PPG thanks to 43.2 percent shooting from 3-point range.

Northwestern is ranked No. 15 in the country in free-throw shooting percentage (76.7%), while it is 12th in the nation in field-goal percentage defense (38.9%).

Maryland (21-4 SU, 13-7-3 ATS) has won four in a row over Northwestern, including all three meetings since joining the Big Ten. When these teams met in College Park last year, the Terps needed overtime to escape with a 62-56 win, although the Wildcats took the cash as 12-point underdogs.

Mark Turgeon’s squad has won six of seven road games both SU and ATS.

Maryland is one of the nation’s biggest surprises this season. It raced out to a 21-2 record before dropping back-to-back games at home vs. Purdue (73-72) and at Penn State (70-64). The Terps avoided a three-game slide Saturday by capturing an 86-77 win over Ohio State as 7.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Anthony Cowan produced 19 points and four assists compared to only one turnover, while Kevin Huerter finished with 18 points, four rebounds and three assists. Melo Trimble added 10 points and four assists with just one turnover.

Maryland is No. 23 in the RPI, compiling a 1-1 record against the Top 25, a 3-1 mark versus the Top 50 and a 12-4 record against the Top 100. The Terps own road scalps at Minnesota, at Georgetown, at Michigan, at Illinois and at Ohio St. They’ve also won on neutral floors against Richmond and Kansas State, in addition to home triumphs over Oklahoma State, Illinois, Towson, Indiana and Ohio St.

Turgeon’s troops are led by Trimble, who averages 16.6 points, 3.6 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game. Justin Jackson, a highly-touted freshman forward, is averaging 11.1 points and 6.4 RPG while shooting at a 44.2 percent clip from 3-point range. Huerter (9.3 PPG) is draining 38.5 percent from long distance, pulling down 4.9 RPG and has a 61/31 assists-to-turnovers ratio.

Maryland’s Dion Wiley (4.0 PPG, 1.8 RPG) has been dealing with a back injury and is ‘questionable’ at Northwestern.

Northwestern (19-6 SU, 15-7 ATS) has won 12 of 14 home games while posting a 7-4 spread record.

The ‘under’ has been a major money maker in Northwestern games this year, cashing at a 14-6-2 overall clip. The Wildcats have seen the ‘under’ go 7-3-1 in their home contests. They’ve seen the ‘under’ go 6-1-1 in their last eight (regardless of venue).

The ‘under’ is 13-10-3 overall for the Terrapins, but they’ve watched the ‘over’ go 4-3 in their seven road assignments.

Duke at Virginia

As they prep to square off tonight in Charlottesville, Virginia and Duke are in a fourth-place tie in the ACC standings. However, both schools are just one game off the pace being set by league-leading North Carolina with its 9-3 ACC mark. FSU and Louisville are one-half game behind UNC (and one-half game ahead of the Blue Devils and Cavaliers).

As of early this morning, most books had Virginia (18-6 SU, 14-8 ATS) listed as a five-point home ‘chalk.’ The Cavs owns a 10-2 SU record and a 6-4 ATS mark at home this season.

Tony Bennett’s squad has dropped three of its last five games, including an 80-78 loss Sunday night at Virginia Tech. The Cavs failed to cover the five-point number in the overtime setback. UVA blew a 14-point halftime lead in part due to mediocre free-throw shooting (14-of-24; 58.3%). London Perrantes scored a game-high 22 points in the losing effort. Kyle Guy scored 12 points off the bench in 23 minutes of playing time.

Virginia is No. 13 in the RPI, posting a 3-2 record against the Top 25, a 6-4 mark versus the Top 50 and a 10-6 ledger against the Top 100. The Cavs own notable road wins at California, at Louisville, at Notre Dame and at Clemson. They’ve also posted home victories over Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Ohio State and Georgia Tech, in addition to neutral-court wins over Providence and Iowa.

UVA leads the country in scoring defense, limiting foes to 55.1 PPG. The Cavs are 18th in field-goal percentage defense (39.4%).

Duke (20-5 SU, 10-14 ATS) has won three of its six road assignments while going 2-4 ATS. The Blue Devils have been underdogs twice, going 0-2 in both spots that were on the road.

Duke is No. 14 in the RPI, going 3-3 against the Top 25, 7-4 versus the Top 50 and 11-5 against the Top 100. The Blue Devils have neutral-court wins over Penn St., Florida and Rhode Island, while also winning at Wake Forest and at Notre Dame. They’ve also registered home wins vs. Michigan St., Miami, North Carolina Ga. Tech, Pitt and Clemson.

Since losing three of four games, Duke has ripped off five consecutive victories, including Saturday’s 64-62 win over Clemson as an 11-point home favorite. Luke Kennard led the way for the winners with a game-best 25 points on 4-of-8 shooting from 3-point land.

Kennard has the smoothest lefty jumper I’ve seen since Chris Mullin was shredding the nets at St. John’s in the mid-1980s. He is averaging a team-high 20.0 PPG while making 52.7 percent from the field, 45.9 percent from beyond the arc and 84.7 percent at the free-throw line. Kennard also pulls down 5.1 RPG and has a decent 62/40 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Grayson Allen (15.9 PPG) has been turning his game up of late after dealing with a lot of controversy a few weeks ago. Jayson Tatum, a true freshman, is scoring at a 15.6 PPG clip while also grabbing 7.0 RPG. Amile Jefferson (11.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG) has a team-high 33 rejections.

The ‘under’ is 13-10-1 overall for the Blue Devils, but they’ve watched the ‘over’ hit at a 5-1 clip in their road assignments. Regardless of the venue, the ‘over’ is on an 8-3-1 roll in Duke games.

The ‘under’ is 13-8-1 overall for the Cavs, 5-5 in their home contests. They had seen the ‘under’ go on a 5-0-1 spree until recently seeing back-to-back ‘overs.’

#14 Virginia hosts #12 Duke
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com

#12 Duke visits Charlottesville on Wednesday night, looking to push struggling #14 Virginia further down in the ACC standings.

#12 Duke will be gunning for its fifth straight win while #14 Virginia will be looking to avoid losing four of its past six when the Blue Devils and Cavaliers take the floor at John Paul Jones Arena on Wednesday evening. Coach Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers return from a gut-wrenching, double-overtime defeat at the hands of cross-town rival Virginia Tech (80-78, UVA -5) on Sunday. The Cavaliers now have the daunting task of returning home (10-2, 6-4 ATS) to face the scorching hot Blue Devils. Virginia has at least won its past four home games (3-1), including a 71-55 (UVA -6) win over #4 Louisville on Feb. 6. Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s Blue Devils are surging up the ACC standings after taking down arch-rival North Carolina (86-78, Duke -3) and Clemson (64-62, Duke -11) at home last week. The Blue Devils will be going for their sixth win in a row on Wednesday night, and sit tied with the Cavaliers at 8-4 in conference play, just a game out of first place. Duke has won its last two road games (at Notre Dame, at Wake Forest) at the end of January, but had been 0-3 on the road in ACC play until that point and 0-2 against ranked teams on the road until beating Notre Dame on Jan. 30. Overall, Duke is 3-3 (2-4 ATS) on the road this season. Duke is 10-14 ATS on the season and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. Virginia is a healthy 14-8 ATS on the season (6-4 ATS at home). In total trends, the Over in Virginia games is 2-0-1 in the Cavaliers’ last three. Sunday’s double overtime loss was the first time the Over won in a Virginia game where the total was higher than 132. The Under is 5-2-1 in the last eight games at John Paul Jones Arena. For Duke, the Over is 8-3-1 in its last 12 games, including an 8-1 stretch between Dec. 31 and Jan. 30. The Under for Duke, however, is 3-0 in the Blue Devils last three (since Feb. 4). The last time the Blue Devils and Cavaliers met, Duke G Grayson Allen (15.9 PPG, 4.0 APG) flipped in an off balance, buzzer beating game winner off the backboard in Cameron Indoor Stadium for a 63-62 win (Duke -3), almost one year ago. Duke is 8-2 (3-7 ATS) against Virginia since Feb. 2010 and 3-2 (3-2 ATS) in Charlottesville in that span. The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Duke and Virginia.

Virginia led for almost the entirety of regulation on Sunday, but a Hokies tip-in with a second left sent the game into overtime in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers were again in position to win in overtime, but a potential go-ahead layup by senior G London Perrantes (12.6 PPG, 3.9 APG) took a bizarre bounce, literally getting stuck on the back of the rim, resulting in a jump ball and Virginia Tech possession. Virginia’s tops-in-the-nation defense (55.1 PPG) allowed 80+ points for just the second time all season, and now welcomes one of the most talented offensive teams in the nation to town. While pace, as always, certainly factors into the Cavaliers’ gaudy defensive numbers, Virginia does hold opponents to a stingy 39.4% FG clip (17th in NCAA), but has allowed 10 of 13 ACC opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. While the Cavaliers don’t jump off the page as a good rebounding team or offensive team (288th in NCAA in rebounds, 257th in scoring offense), remember it’s all about efficiency and pace for Coach Bennett’s team. Virginia only allows 28 rebounds per game (2nd in NCAA) and is 46th in rebounding margin (5.1). Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are eighth in the country in FG% (49.2%) and 34th in points per possession (1.15). In Virginia’s last two home games, they’ve outrebounded their opponents 75-41, and Duke has struggled on the boards recently. The aforementioned senior, Perrantes, is Virginia’s only double-figure scorer. Taking on more of an offensive load has hurt Perrantes from deep, as his percentage from beyond the arc is down almost 10 percent from last season. Perrantes is averaging 16.3 PPG over his last four games (all in double-figures), however. Keep an eye on freshman guard duo Kyle Guy (7.8 PPG, 48.5% 3PT) and Ty Jerome (3.6 PPG). Both played sparingly to start the year, but are considered Virginia’s backcourt of the future. Guy has outings of 14 and 12 points in two of his last three games, while Jerome is averaging 8.3 PPG (11-for-22 3PT) over his past six games with additional minutes. F Isaiah Wilkins (7.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) is always a treat to watch if you like hustle and lockdown defense. Wilkins had 13 points, 11 rebounds and five blocks in the Feb. 6 win over Louisville.

For Duke, one can trace their success over the last five games to exploiting the three-point arc. The Blue Devils have shot it better than 42% from deep in four of their last five games (39% in the win over Wake Forest on Jan. 28) and held each of their last five opponents to 33% 3PT or worse. Virginia is 20th in the country from deep, but Duke held the Cavaliers to 2-11 3PT in last season’s victory. The Blue Devils got 15 points, seven rebounds, seven assists and a game-winner from Grayson Allen last season against Virginia, and Allen is starting to find his groove again with games of 19+ points in four of his last five contests. G Luke Kennard (20 PPG, 52.7 % FG, 45.9% 3PT) has led Duke’s offense this season but was just a bit player against Virginia last year (going scoreless on one field goal attempt). The southpaw sharpshooter has at least one made three in every single Blue Devils game this season and carried Duke with 25 points (20 in the second half) in an ugly win over Clemson on Saturday. (No other Blue Devil was in double-figures.) Included in those single-figure sub-par outings on Saturday was freshman star F Jayson Tatum (15.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG). Tatum, however, did his damage against archrival North Carolina with a well rounded 19-point, nine-rebound and five-assist effort. While Duke has a solid scoring defense (68 PPG), they have been exploited in ACC play (especially on the interior) where the Blue Devils allow 48.4% FG on the season from inside the arc. Eight of Duke’s last 10 foes have shot 43% FG or better. Duke desperately needs struggling senior F Amile Jefferson (11.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG) to return to early-season form. Jefferson hasn’t recorded a double-double since Dec. 10.

Wednesday CBB Betting Preview
By Sportsbook.ag

North Carolina vs. North Carolina State

Sportsbook.ag Odds: North Carolina (-11.5); Total set at 168.5

While most eyes will be following the big game between Duke/Virginia in the ACC tonight, it's another game from that conference that has grabbed my attention. North Carolina/NC State rivalry games are filled with just as much hatred as the best rivalry games in the country and both teams have something to prove this evening.

For the 10th ranked North Carolina Tar Heels, it's all about responding well after losing 86-78 against Duke last week. That was the second straight outright loss for this club in as many road games and to remain a top ranked team in the country you've got to win in hostile environments. The Tar Heels will be confident they can bounce back though after beating NC State 105-56 in the first meeting.

For NC State, it's about ending this brutal five-game losing stretch they are currently on with three of those losses coming by 20+ points. All three of those blowouts came on the road though and a little home-cooking tonight is probably what the doctor would prescribe.

The Wolfpack are 11-4 SU at home this year (compared to 1-7 SU away) and the talent is definitely there to beat elite level squads. Remember, that lone road victory for NC State came @ Duke and it was the last time they won a game.

On the surface, seeing a 105-56 score in the first meeting will have many bettors leaning to laying the chalk, but situationally that is probably not the best idea for multiple reasons.

For one, it's an obvious revenge angle on the side of NC State after losing by 49 points, but two, it's highly unlikely the Wolfpack shoot as poorly as they did at home as they did on the road in that first meeting.

NC State shot just 36.5% from the field and went an astonishingly low 3-11 from the charity stripe. This is a team that averages 86.2 points per game at home – compared to 79.9 overall – and they'd love to erase the memory of that blowout loss vs. UNC and end a five-game losing streak all at the same time.

Furthermore, this is one of those classic “sandwich” spots for North Carolina as it's a game that comes after their loss @ Duke and before they host Virginia this Saturday. Add in a home game vs. Louisville after that and tonight's game is in the midst of a brutal little stretch for the Tar Heels.

Louisville, Duke, and Virginia are all within one game of UNC for 1st place in the ACC and this next week or so will go a long way in deciding that outcome. With a 49-point win over NC State already in their pocket, it's natural for the Tar Heels to look past this game and to those next tilts, figuring they've just got to show up tonight to get the W.

Finally, while it is likely UNC does leave town with the win tonight, doing so by double digits will be tough. North Carolina is 0-4 ATS in their last four on the road, and 1-5 ATS in their last six as a road favorite of any number.

With 3rd leading scorer Isaiah Hicks (12.8 ppg) battling a nagging hamstring injury, and 6th leading scorer Kenny Williams (6.2 pp) nursing a sore leg as well, don't be surprised to see NC State rise up to the challenge and give UNC all that they can handle and more tonight.