NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, January 18th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Florida won its last seven games; they’re 5-0 in SEC, winning road games by 9 at Arkansas, 13 at Alabama. Gators force turnovers 24.9% of time vs SEC opponents. South Carolina is 4-0 in SEC, beating Texas A&M/Ole Miss by 11 points each in its two SEC home games. Gamecocks are forcing turnovers 29.7% of time in league play. Florida won seven of last eight games with South Carolina, losing in OT in Columbia LY; Gators won four of last five games here. Road teams are 13-5 vs spread in SEC games where spread was 5 or less points.
Indiana lost four of last six games after a 10-2 start; they’re 0-2 in true road games, losing at Ft Wayne/Maryland, both by 3 points. Hoosiers put their foes on foul line more than any team in Big 14. Penn State won three of last four games, beating Michigan St/Minnesota in last two; they were down 10 at half to Gophers in last game. PSU won two of last three games with Indiana, after losing previous five series games. Hoosiers won four of last five visits to Happy Valley. Big 14 home underdogs of 6 or less points are 6-3 vs spread this season.
Notre Dame won its last seven games, is 16-2, 5-0 in ACC, with four wins by 5 or less points or in OT. Irish already have ACC wins at Pitt-Miami-Va Tech; they protect ball well and they don’t foul much. Florida State is also 16-2; they had 12-game win streak snapped at UNC Saturday. Seminoles are 3-0 in ACC home games, winning by 16-15-16 points- they get to foul line more than any team in ACC. FSU won 76-74/77-56 in its last two games with Notre Dame. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 9-4 vs spread this season.
TCU is 14-3 this year, 3-2 in Big X, after being 8-64 in league games the previous four years. Horned Frogs are 3-2 in Big X, 1-1 on road; their losses are to Kansas/WestVa. Frogs are shooting 55.3% inside arc in Big X games. Texas Tech is 2-3 in Big X, 2-0 at home with pair of one-point wins, over WVU/K-State- Red Raiders won eight of last nine games with TCU. Horned Frogs beat ‘em 67-62 in Big X tourney LY, but lost last four visits to Lubbock, by 9-6-20-4 points. Big X home favorites of 5 or less points are 3-3 against the spread.
Wake Forest is 1-4 in ACC, with only win at home vs Boston College; Deacons’ ACC home losses are by 5 to Clemson, 6 to UNC. Wake is shooting 39% (#32) from arc for season. Miami split tis first four games, losing by 15 at Syracuse, winning by 26 at Pitt in their road games. Hurricanes are #266 experience team that is just 2-4 vs top 100 teams, beating NC State/Pitt. Home side won last five Miami-Wake Forest games; Hurricanes lost 80-65/72-70 in last two visits here. Road team is 6-3-1 vs spread in ACC games where spread was 3 or less points.
Utah is 3-2 in Pac-12 after playing #339 pre-conference schedule; they split pair of Pac-12 road games, losing by 9 at Arizona, winning by 6 at ASU. Utes are last in league getting to foul line. Utah won its last five games with Washington State, winning 67-59/92-77 in last two visits here- they beat Coogs 88-47 in last meeting in SLC LY. Wazzu lost its last three games by 19-30-4 points; Coogs are #84 experience team that packs it in on defense; teams are shooting 44.7% on arc against them in Pac-12 tilts. Pac-12 home underdogs are 5-5 vs spread this season.
Ohio State is 1-4 in Big 14, 0-3 on road, losing games by 5-10-23 points; they got first league win Sunday vs Michigan St. Buckeyes have #11 eFG% defense in Big 14. Nebraska lost its last two games after starting 3-0 in league; Huskers have made 43.7% of their 3’s in conference games. Ohio State won nine of last ten games with Nebraska, winning last three by 4-24-3 points. Buckeyes won three of last four visits to Lincoln, winning 65-62 in OT here LY. Big 14 home teams are 11-6 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.
Georgia Tech is 3-2 in ACC despite being picked to finish last before season; Jackets are 1-3 in true road games, losing by 53 at Duke, winning at NC State in ACC road games. GT opponents are shooting just 42.6% inside arc. Virginia Tech lost three of its last four games; they’re 2-1 at home in ACC, beating Duke/Syracuse, losing to Notre Dame. VT is 8-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Hokies won their last two games with Georgia Tech by total of three points; Jackets lost six of last seven visits to Blacksburg. ACC home favorites of 7+ points are 8-5 vs spread.
Home side won last nine Kansas State-Oklahoma State games; Wildcats beat OSU 75-71 in Big X tourney LY, but lost last four visits to Stillwater, by 3-14-16-6 points. K-State lost three of last four games; they’re 0-2 on Big X road, losing at Kansas/Tex Tech by total of three points. OSU is 0-5 in Big X, allowing 83.6 pts/game; Cowboys lost home games to WVU by 17, Iowa St by 10. OSU is fouling most and forcing least turnovers in Big X, a bad combination. Big X home teams are 5-5 against spread in games where spread was 5 or less points.
Wyoming is 2-3 in Mountain West, losing both road games, by 6 at UNLV, 15 at Fresno State. Cowboys are 1-4 overall in true road games this season, winning by one at Montana. Wyoming won five of last six games with San Jose State- they lost 62-55 here LY, but won previous two visits to San Jose, by 8-6 points. Spartans won two of last three games, are 1-1 in MW home games, losing by 5 to Colorado St, beating Fresno St by 7, after trailing by 15. Underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in Mountain West games where spread was 3 or less points.
Colorado State is down to 7 scholarship players due to academic issues; Rams are 3-2 in MW, splitting pair of road games that were decided by total of six points- they lost by 1 at Boise, won at San Jose. Fresno State is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on road in league play, beating Nevada/Wyoming/Boise at home. Bulldogs swept Colorado State by 14-8 points, after losing eight of previous nine series games. Rams are 2-3 in last five visits here, losing by 23-9-14 points. Mountain West home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-7 against the spread.
Colorado is 0-5 in Pac-12 after starting season 10-3; they lost Pac-12 road games at Arizona schools, by 1 at ASU, 9 in Tucson. Buffs are starting three juniors, two seniors, but are turning ball over 20% of time in Pac-12. Home side won six of eight Colorado-Washington games; Buffaloes lost three of four visits here, losing by 10-17-12 points. Huskies won first meeting of year last three seasons. Washington is 1-4 in Pac-12, with only win over lowly Oregon State. Pac-12 favorites are 0-5 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points.
Denver is 11-7 this year, 3-2 in Summit League, after going 13-19 in league play last two years. Pioneers are playing pace #238 this year, after being at #350 last couple years, while playing Princeton style under the previous coach. Omaha won its last three games, scoring 88.7 pts/game; they’re playing #12 pace in country. Home side won last five Denver-Omaha games; Pioneers lost 80-69/75-72 in last two visits here- they beat Omaha 78-70 in Summit tourney LY. Summit League home favorites of 5 or less points are 4-6 vs spread.
Armadillosports.com
Oklahoma looks to upset WVU
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com
#7 West Virginia looks to continue the misery of reeling Oklahoma when the Mountaineers host the Sooners in a Big 12 clash.
The Mountaineers (15-2, 7-5 ATS) look for their fourth straight win on Wednesday night as they’re heavy home favorites against 7-9 (8-6) Oklahoma. West Virginia has won three straight and Coach Bob Huggins’ crew comes off of a week that saw them crush then-#1 (Baylor) at home, 89-68 (WVU -5.5). The Mountaineers followed the big home victory with a road win over Texas (74-72, WVU -11.5) to move to #7 in the polls. West Virginia is 4-1 (2-3 ATS) in conference play this season and a perfect 10-0 (3-2) in Morgantown. The Mountaineers are 6-1 (3-4 ATS) as double-digit favorites on the season. In total trends, the Over is 5-1 in the last six Mountaineer games, including each of the past four. After a 5-1 start to their season, and since the calendar turned to December, the Sooners have been abysmal, going 2-8. That said, Oklahoma has performed well against the spread going 6-4 ATS in that stretch. The Sooners are 0-3 (2-1 ATS) on the road thus far and those splits carry over to conference play (1-4 overall, 4-1 ATS), and as underdogs (1-6 overall, 5-2 ATS). The Sooners are actually coming off of their first win in a month, taking down Texas Tech on Saturday at home, 84-75 (OU -1.5). Oklahoma is 3-1 against West Virginia in their past four meetings, with the Sooners having taken both regular season games against the Mountaineers last season (including at WVU Coliseum) only for West Virginia to get revenge in the Big 12 Tournament. Total trends have shown the last four games in this matchup all Under. Wednesday night’s game will be the first double-digit spread in the last ten matchups for these two teams, as the 16-point line dwarfs the previous largest (OU -9.5, Mar ’13).
While there are many differences between West Virginia and Oklahoma this season, the main one is that West Virginia has successfully replaced departed talent with depth, team play, and continuity of style. Oklahoma has floundered trying to make up for roster losses and ultimately this looks to be a rebuilding year. The Mountaineers will look to jump on the youthful Sooners who give the ball away at an alarming rate (14.4 TO/G, 257th in NCAA). West Virginia boasts the best defense at creating turnovers in the nation (24.3 TO, 12.6 SPG), and you know Coach Huggins is salivating over the prospect of imposing his will on a seemingly overmatched Oklahoma roster. The Mountaineers do a great job of keeping their foot on the gas when they get a lead, as evidenced by their 26.7 point scoring margin (1st in NCAA). West Virginia’s scoring defense is also as good as it’s been in recent years (62.7 PPG, 17th in NCAA), as it’s not all about steals and turnovers this season. While Coach Huggins and the defense get the headlines, it’s the offense in Morgantown that’s made the Mountaineers elite this season. Averaging 89.1 PPG (3rd in NCAA) and fourth in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio, West Virginia has finally found a great balance with scoring options and ball security. The Mountaineers used to turn it over almost as much as they took it away (see their NCAA Tournament loss to Stephen F. Austin last season), but not this year: West Virginia possesses an otherworldly 13.3 turnover margin (twice as much as the #2 team in the nation). Boasting a team with no stars, the Mountaineers have ten players averaging double-digit minutes. Their leading scorer averages 12.4 PPG (Sophomore F Esa Ahmad). Perhaps the best indicator of how balanced this offense is (and hard to scout) is that West Virginia averages 65.9 FGA per game (6th in NCAA), yet no individual on the team averages 9.0 shots per game. In close games when minutes rise, Coach Huggins has relied on Ahmad, F Nathan Adrian (10.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.3 APG) and G Jevon Carter (11.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.1 SPG) as veterans to play heavy minutes. Carter leads the Big 12 and is fourth nationally in steals per game, while also working on a personal streak of eight straight games with double-figures. Unlike Oklahoma, six of West Virginia’s top seven scorers are upperclassmen.
Coach Lon Kruger undoubtedly has a very tall task ahead of him in trying to stay with the Mountaineers in Morgantown. That said, things are looking slightly up for the Sooners. Senior G Jordan Woodard (17.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.7 APG) is back healthy as the lone key holdover from last season’s Final Four team. Woodard had been injured for the start of conference play and, not surprisingly, Oklahoma went winless in that stretch (2-2 ATS). With his return on Jan. 10, the Sooners stuck with #2 Kansas at home (losing 81-70) and then ended a seven-game skid on Saturday in beating Texas Tech. Woodard had 27 points in Saturday’s win. He has had some success against West Virginia in his career, going for 23 points, four rebounds and eight assists as a freshman in Morgantown, however he only averaged 11.6 PPG in his three meetings against the Mountaineers last season. If the Sooners are to threaten the Mountaineers, they’ll have to minimize turnovers (as Texas Tech did in their upset win over West Virginia) and shoot the lights out from three, a strength of Oklahoma’s (38.3% 3PT, 50th in NCAA). The Sooners also have shown the ability to force turnovers and maybe they can give West Virginia some of their own medicine (7.8 SPG, 34th in NCAA). Woodard leads the way with 2.2 steals, while fellow Final Four contributor, junior C Kadeem Lattin (8.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG) also is a solid defender with 2.1 BPG and 1.6 SPG. Unfortunately Lattin hasn’t become the post presence on offense that Kruger had hoped, and it’s left Oklahoma begging for offense from underclassmen to supplement the play of Woodard. One such player has been Rashard Odomes (10.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG). A seldom-used freshman last season, Odomes has emerged into the lineup to play 30+ minutes in his last three games and scored a career-high 24 points (9-of-14 FG) along with eight rebounds and four assists in the win over Texas Tech. While Christian James (10.2 PPG) started out the season hot, he’s been ice cold (5-for-19 FG) his last four games, and his minutes have suffered. In his place has been freshman Kameron McGusty (7.6 PPG), scoring 13.4 PPG in his last four.
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Florida at South Carolina
South Carolina (14-3 straight up, 7-6 against the spread) hasn’t tasted a defeat in the 11 games played by senior star Sindarius Thornwell, who missed six games due to an indefinite suspension. However, since his return, the Gamecocks have won four in a row while producing a 3-1 spread record.
Frank Martin’s team has won 10 of its 11 home games while posting a 3-5 spread record. The Gamecocks are off of Saturday’s 67-56 win over Ole Miss as 12.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Chris Silva had a double-double with 16 points and 11 rebounds, while P.J. Dozier added 16 points, five rebounds and three assists. Thornwell had 10 points, eight boards, three assists and a pair of steals.
As of early this morning, most books had South Carolina listed as a one-point home favorite. One offshore shop had a total of 134.5 points.
South Carolina is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS as a single-digit home favorite. The Gamecocks covered in a 79-68 win over Texas A&M as 5.5-point favorites, but they lost 62-60 to Clemson as 1.5-point home ‘chalk.’ They failed to cover as 5.5-point home favorites in a 70-69 overtime win vs. Monmouth on Dozier’s buzzer-beating jumper.
Thornwell is averaging team-highs in scoring (18.0 points per game), rebounding (7.1 RPG), assists (3.6 APG) and steals (2.5 SPG). Dozier (14.9 PPG) is averaging 4.8 rebounds and 3.1 APG. Silva (9.7 PPG 6.3 RPG,) is averaging team-bests in field-goal percentage (57.8%) and blocked shots (1.9 BPG).
Florida (14-3 SU, 9-6 ATS) owns a 3-1 SU record and a 2-1 ATS mark in four true road assignments. The Gators are winless both SU and ATS in three games as underdogs.
Since dropping back-to-back games vs. Duke (84-74 at MSG in NYC) and at FSU (83-78), Mike White’s team has ripped seven consecutive wins while going 5-2 ATS. UF is 5-0 in SEC play and can pull back into a first-place tie with Kentucky with a win here. UK went to 6-0 in league action by winning but failing to cover in last night’s win at The Hump over Mississippi St. The Gators have won at Arkansas (81-72), vs. Ole Miss (70-63), vs. Tennessee (83-70), at Alabama (80-67) and vs. Georgia (80-76).
Florida needed a second-half rally to force overtime before beating Georgia on Saturday at The O’Dome in Gainesville. The Bulldogs easily took the cash as 11-point underdogs. Although UGA had lost 13 straight at UF, senior guard J.J. Frazier helped the Bulldogs to an eight-point advantage in the second half. Kasey Hill made two free throws on four attempts in the final minute to force the extra session. Trailing by three with nine seconds left, Frazier’s trey attempt to tie was off the mark. Canyon Barry countered Frazier’s 25 points with a game-high 27. That was a season-high scoring effort for Barry, as was his five 3-pointers made on eight launches. Redshirt freshman forward Keith Stone scored a career-best on 17 points. He also had three steals and made 5-of-6 shots from the field, including 3-of-4 from downtown. Hill finished with 11 points and four assists. John Egbunu contributed five points, 11 rebounds and two blocked shots.
UF sophomore guard KeVaughn Allen scored nine points in the win over UGA. It was the second straight game he was held to single-digit scoring after averaging 19.3 points per game over a four-game stretch. Allen has averaged a team-best 13.9 PPG for the season while hitting 39.8 percent of his shots from beyond the arc and 86.8 percent at the free-throw line. Barry (12.8 PPG) has buried 85.7 percent at the charity stripe in the underhanded form made famous by his NBA Hall-of-Famer father, Rick. Devin Robinson is averaging 11.4 points and 5.1 RPG.
UF is No. 3 in the RPI Rankings with a 4-3 record versus the Top 50 and a 9-3 mark against the Top 100. All three of the Gators’ defeats came against RPI Top-15 foes, including neutral-court losses to Duke and Gonzaga and a setback at FSU. Their best wins are at Arkansas, vs. Ole Miss, vs. UGA and vs. Seton Hall on a neutral floor. They also have neutral-court scalps over Miami, St. Bonaventure and Florida Gulf Coast.
South Carolina is No. 25 in the RPI, going 2-2 vs. the Top 50 and 7-2 against the Top 100. The Gamecocks have quality road wins at Georgia and at Tennessee, in addition to notable home victories vs. Ole Miss, Monmouth, Michigan, Vermont and Texas A&M.
The ‘over’ is on a 7-2 run for the Gators, who have now seen the ‘over’ go 9-6 overall and 3-0 in their road contests.
The ‘under’ is 11-3 overall for South Carolina, 6-2 in its home contests.
Notre Dame at Florida State
As of early this morning, most spots had FSU (16-2 SU, 11-5 ATS) listed as a six-point favorite.
Leonard Hamilton’s team is No. 11 in the RPI, producing Top-50 home wins over Duke, Wake Forest, Florida and Minnesota. The Seminoles are also beat Illinois on a neutral floor and a won at Virginia. Their only losses came at North Carolina and vs. Temple on a neutral court. They own a 4-1 record against the Top 25, a 6-1 mark versus the Top 50 and a 7-2 ledger against the Top 100.
FSU is undefeated in 12 home games with an 8-2 spread record.
FSU saw its school-record 12-game winning streak snapped in Saturday’s 96-83 loss at UNC as an 8.5-point underdog. Dwayne Bacon had a team-high 18 points in the losing effort. Jonathan Isaac produced 17 points, 12 rebounds and three steals, but the Seminoles were an abysmal 12-of-26 from the FT line (46.2%).
Bacon, a sophomore wing who was a five-star recruit, is averaging a team-best 17.8 PPG. Isaac is averaging 12.5 points and 7.5 RPG. Xavier Rathan-Mayes (10.8 PPG) has dished out a team-high 84 assists compared to 36 turnovers.
Notre Dame (16-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) has won outright in all three road games, going 2-0-1 ATS. Since blowing second-half leads in a pair of neutral-court losses to Villanova and Purdue, Mike Brey’s squad has won has seven in a row and has covered the number in four straight outings. The Fighting Irish are alone in first place atop the ACC standings with a 5-0 record.
Notre Dame just brought to a halt Miami’s 21-game home winning streak last Thursday before ending Va. Tech’s 15-game home surge on Saturday. Now the Irish can stop a 15-game home winning streak for FSU.
Notre Dame won 67-62 at Miami as a four-point road ‘dog before besting the Hokies 76-71 as a 1.5-point puppy in Blacksburg. Steve Vasturia paced his team against Va. Tech by scoring 29 points to go with four boards and four assists. Bonzie Colson added 14 points, 12 rebounds and two blocked shots, while junior PG Matt Farrell finished with 14 points, five assists and three steals. Temple Gibbs contributed 13 points from off the bench in just 17 minutes of playing time.
Notre Dame is 2-2 both SU and ATS as an underdog.
Colson is averaging a double-double (15.8 PPG, 10.9 RPG) while draining 87.3 percent of his free throws. He has a team-best 25 rejections. Vasturia (15.0 PPG) is burying 44.3 percent from 3-point range and 91.5 percent at the FT line. Farrell (14.1 PPG) has a 98/43 assists-to-turnovers ratio, while V.J. Beachem is also scoring in double figures with a 13.9 PPG average.
Notre Dame leads the nation in free-throw percentage (82.8%).
When these teams met last season, FSU cruised to a 77-56 win as a 2.5-point home underdog. Bacon led the way for the winners with 21 points.
The ‘over’ is 9-7 overall for the ‘Noles, 7-3 in their home outings. They’ve seen the ‘over’ hit in three consecutive games.
The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall, but the ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back games for the Irish. The ‘under’ is 2-1 in their road assignments.