NCAAB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, January 4th, 2017

NCAAB Knowledge

Villanova won its last six games with Butler, covering four of last five; they won last three visits here by 3-3-5 points. Wildcats are 14-0 vs schedule #59; they’re 2-0 in true road games, with wins at Purdue/Creighton. Villanova is shooting 60.1% inside arc, has #3 eFG%, holds foes to 27.8% on arc. Butler makes 39.4% on arc, has #8 eFG%; they’re only two losses were on road to Indiana State/St John’s. Bulldogs are 12-2 vs schedule #40; they’re 8-1 vs top 100 teams, with four top 50 wins.

Syracuse is 4-6 in its last ten games; in last two losses, to St John’s/BC, Orange allowed 94.5 pts/game and 1.26/1.32 ppp. Syracuse was actually playing man/man at end of Boston College game; they’re 0-3 vs top 60 teams, losing by 14-7-17 points. Miami won its last two games with Syracuse by 13-4 points; they split last two series games played in Carrier Dome. Hurricanes won last seven games, beating NC State by 18 in ACC opener; Miami has #9 eFG% defense, but their only true road game was 94-56 at North Florida on Nov 16.

Providence won its last four games with Georgetown, all by 4 or less points; Hoyas lost 60-57/75-72 in last two visits to Dunkin Donuts Center. Friars lost last three games, all on road, by 12-26-17 points after a 10-2 start; they’re 3-4 vs top 100 teams, with best win by 3 over #34 URI. Georgetown allowed 78.5 pts/game in losing its first two Big East games by 5-10 points. Hoyas won their only true road game by 7 at Syracuse; they’re shooting 39.8% on arc but turning ball over 20.7% of time.

Georgia is 9-4 vs schedule #31; they won SEC opener by 12 at Auburn. Dawgs are 0-4 vs top 90 teams- their best wins are over Auburn/UL-Lafayette. Georgia is 12-3 in its last 15 games with South Carolina, winning last four, last two by total of three points. Gamecocks lost six of last seven visits to Athens. South Carolina is 2-3 in its last five games after an 8-0 start; they they won at South Florida, lost by 16 at Memphis in only two true road games. Gamecocks are forcing turnovers 23.7% of time, #8 in country.

Vanderbilt won its last 12 games with Auburn, last three by 12+ points. Tigers lost last eight games in Nashville, last four all by 12+ points. Commodores are 7-6 vs schedule #35; they won by 7 at LSU in SEC opener, but are just 1-5 vs top 100 teams, with win by hoop at LSU. Vandy is shooting 40.2% on arc (#15). Auburn won its two true road games by total of 7 points, at UAB/UConn, but they lost SEC opener at home to Georgia. Tigers are #323 experience team that forces turnovers 21.8% of time- they’re playing at pace #8.

Oklahoma State is 10-3 vs schedule #81; they’re 2-1 in true road games, winning at Tulsa/Wichita State, losing by point at Maryland. OSU forces turnovers 25.4% of time (#3).- they lost Big X opener by 17 to West Virginia. Texas is 3-2 in last five games with Oklahoma State, beating OSU by 5-12 points LY. Teams split last four series games in Austin. Seven of last nine series games were decided by 10+ points. Longhorns lost seven of last ten games, scoring 60 pts/game in last two games, losses to Kent State/Kansas State.

St John’s won its last three games, upsetting Butler, winning by 33 at Syracuse after starting season 5-7; Red Storm is #348 experience team that makes 40.2% of its 3’s- they play pace #49. Home side won five of six Creighton-St John’s games; Bluejays won here LY, beat Red Storm 100-59 in last meeting in Omaha- they’ve lost two of three visits here. Creighton lost its first game Saturday after a 13-0 start; they’ve got road wins by 15 at Nebraska, 11 at Arizona State. Bluejays are shooting 43% on arc, best in country.

Washington is #346 experience team that is 7-6 vs schedule #269; they’re 0-4 vs top 100 teams with three losses by 13+ points- their best win was over #187 Long Beach State. Huskies are shooting 42.4% in arc, #2 in country. Home side won last five Oregon-Washington games, with Oregon winning last three, by 4-13-6 points- they beat Huskies 83-77 in Pac-12 tourney LY. Ducks lost by 4-8 points in last two visits to Seattle. Oregon won its last 11 games; they lost by 18 at Baylor in their only true road game, way back on November 15.

Louisville lost its last five visits to Notre Dame, losing a 5-OT game here in 2013; Cardinals are 5-6 overall in last 11 games with Irish, losing last two, by 12-5 points. Louisville is 12-2 vs #22 schedule; this is their 4th strait game vs a top 30 team. Cardinals won by 7 at Grand Canyon in only true road game- their win over Indiana Saturday was in Indy, not Bloomington. Notre Dame is 4-2 vs top 100 teams; they won ACC opener by point in OT at Pittsburgh. Irish are #2 in USA at protecting ball, #1 in country on foul line (84.1%).

Virginia Tech hammered Allen-less Duke Saturday, now goes on road with a 12-1 record against schedule #326. Hokies won by 3 at Michigan in their only true road game- their only loss was by 3 to Texas A&M on a neutral floor. NC State won five of last six games with Virginia Tech, losing in OT at Blacksburg LY; Hokies lost last two visits to Raleigh by 4-16 points. Wolfpack lost ACC opener by 18 at Miami; they’re 4-2 since big man Yurtseven became eligible. State is 0-3 vs top 100 teams; their best win was over #119 St Joe’s.

Virginia won its last four games with Pittsburgh, winning 48-45/64-50 in last two visits to Steel City. Cavaliers are 11-2 vs schedule #5 with wins at Cal/Louisville, but they go to foul line only five times in home loss to Florida State Saturday, snapping 4-game win streak. Virginia is 5-2 vs top 100 teams; their other loss was to West Virginia. Panthers are 2nd-worst team in country at forcing turnovers; they lost ACC opener in OT to Notre Dame after beating Marshall 112-106 in game before that. Pitt is #23 experience team with a thin bench (#323 in subs’ minutes).

Baylor won its last four games with Iowa State, with three of four by 5 or less points or in OT; Cyclones lost last three visits to Waco by 13-1-9 points. Baylor is 13-0 vs schedule #65 with six top 100 wins, three top 50 wins- they play at slowish pace and block 17% of opponents’ shots. Iowa State went on 20-0 run in second half to come from behind and beat Iowa State by 7 in its Big X opener. Cyclones are #4 experience team that lost by 14 at Iowa in their only true road game this season- they’re 2-3 vs top 100 teams, with wins over Texas Tech/Miami.

Fort Wayne won seven of its last nine games with Omaha, winning last two by 5-4 points; Mastodons are 3-2 in last five visits here, with all three wins in overtime. Fort Wayne won four of last five games; in the loss, Western Illinois made 18-37 on arc in 93-91 game- that is FW’s only loss in eight games vs teams ranked outside top 100- they’re 3-3 in true road games, but wins are all at teams outside top 300. Omaha lost its first two Summit games by 17-12 points, allowing 84 pts/game in two road tilts- they do have a win at Iowa on their resume.

Armadillosports.com

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com

College basketball conference play heats things in the New Year with Wednesday’s Big East and ACC double-header of betting action. The top team in the nation is back in action when the Villanova Wildcats go on the road to face the Butler Bears in a 6:30 p.m. tip at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Later that night in a 9 p.m. start at Purcell Pavilion, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish play host to the Louisville Cardinals.

No. 1 Villanova at No. 18 Butler

Opening Odds: Villanova -1½

Betting Matchup

Villanova ran its record to 14-0 straight-up with this past Saturday’s 80-70 victory against Creighton as a 1½-point road favorite. This was on the heels of a tight 68-65 win at home against DePaul in which the Wildcats failed to cover as heavy 24½-point favorites in their Big East opener. They are now 9-5 against the spread this season and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five contests. Senior guard Josh Hart continues to pace an offensive effort that is averaging 79.9 points per game with a team-high scoring average of 20.3 points. He has posted a combined total of 43 points in his first two conference games.

The Bulldogs come into this showdown at 12-2 SU with an identical 9-5 record ATS as their rivals. Butler opened play in the Big East with a tough 76-73 loss to St. John’s on Dec. 29 as an 8½-point road favorite. However, it quickly responded with a 78-61 victory at home against Providence as a 10½-point favorite on New Year’s Day. They total stayed UNDER 140½ points in that win after going OVER in its previous four games with a posted total line. The hot hand in this starting five has been junior forward Kelan Martin with 18.1 PPG. Senior forward Andrew Chrabascz is the only other player scoring in double figures (11.9 PPG) on an offense that is averaging 78 points a game.

Betting Trends

The Wildcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Big East games, but they have gone 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games on the road. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 conference games.

The Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games and they have covered in nine of their last 12 Big East games. The total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in seven of their last eight games against a conference opponent.

Head-to-head in this matchup, Villanova holds a 4-1 edge ATS in the last five meetings and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in four of the five games.

No. 9 Louisville at No. 23 Notre Dame

Opening Odds: Louisville -1

Betting Matchup

Louisville opened play in the ACC with a 61-53 loss to Virginia at home as a three-point favorite. It was its second SU loss of the season after falling to No. 2 Baylor 66-63 back on Nov. 25 as a three-point favorite. The Cardinals are 12-2 SU and they have gone a healthy 9-3 ATS this season. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of 12 games with a posted betting line. This offense is well down the list when it comes to scoring with 76.1 PPG, but the Cardinals have done a good job at the other end of the court with a points-allowed average of just 60.4. They rank 11th in the country in rebounds with 42.1 a game.

The Fighting Irish have fought their way to a SU 12-2 start with back-to-back road losses in mid-December to Villanova and Purdue as underdogs as the only two blemishes on their record. Notre Dame got past Pittsburgh 78-77 in overtime as a one-point road favorite in its ACC opener as part of a 0-3-1 record ATS in its last four games with a betting line. The total has gone OVER in five of the eight games it has played with a posted line. This offense boast four players scoring in double figures led by junior forward Bonzie Colson (16.6 PPG). He posted a team-high 21 points in the win against Pitt while going 10-for-20 from the field.

Betting Trends

The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a SU winning record, but they have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 games on the road. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 12 ACC games.

The Irish are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games, but they fall to 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games played on a Wednesday. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five conference games.

The home team in this ACC tilt has a 4-1 edge ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in 10 of the last 13 games between the two. Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games against Louisville.

Fultz-led Washington hosts Oregon
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com

#15 Oregon will look to stay hot against struggling Washington in Seattle.

In a tale of two programs, the streaking Oregon Ducks (6-7 ATS), winners of 11 straight after their sweep of UCLA and USC last week, look to add to the home woes of Washington (4-8 ATS) after the Huskies lost to in-state rival Washington State as a 12 point favorite on Sunday night. Washington has won just three of their last eight contests and five of their last seven losses the total has been OVER. (Washington’s last two wins with a line have seen the total go UNDER.) The Huskies are 0-3 (0-3 ATS) as an underdog. In the Ducks’ 11-game streak (5-5 ATS) they didn’t play any true road games, and their only road test was a loss at Baylor early in the season where they scored a season-low 49 points. Historically, Oregon is 8-2 over its last 10 against Washington but just 3-7 ATS (since Feb. 2012). This is the first time the road team is favored since Jan. 2014 (a span of five games). The Huskies are 6-1 ATS versus the Ducks since Feb. 2013 and the underdog in this matchup is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 meetings. Oregon will be the second ranked opponent that the 7-6 Huskies play this season, as they got clobbered at Gonzaga (98-71, Wash +15) on Dec. 7. Oregon will have had plenty of rest – something they’re accustomed to this season - as their last game was on Friday. The Ducks are 5-2 (2-4 ATS) on 3+ days rest this season.

Finally fully healthy, Coach Dana Altman’s Ducks look as dangerous as any team in America after taking down #2 UCLA and # 22 USC in three days. It should come as no surprise that consecutive wins over ranked teams featured the resurgence of F Dillon Brooks (14.8 PPG) who averaged 25.5 PPG last week. As discussed right here on StatFox, Brooks was still working his way back into shape after offseason surgery – but the plan was always for the proverbial “rust” to have been knocked off by conference play. A game-winning three for Brooks with 0.8 seconds left to topple the #2 team in the country (UCLA) was some way to announce that “I’m back”. F Chris Boucher (13.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 3.1 BPG), who was arguably Oregon’s best player while Brooks was on the mend, is also finally healthy after injuries cost him two games in mid-December. Boucher has come off the bench since his return, with the starting unit clicking so well but has still averaged 25.5 minutes per game and chipped in 11 points and five blocks on Friday against USC. In Brooks’ shadow of his marvelous 9-for-10 FG, 28-point performance Friday against USC was G Dylan Ennis (11.5 PPG), who supported the offense with 20 points on 8-for-15 FG in the 84-61 win. F Jordan Bell (10.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.3 BPG) continued his solid play as well this past week with 22 points and 13 rebounds over two games. Bell has really improved his discipline on defense, fouling at a career-low rate while staying on the court for longer than ever before (27 MPG). When Oregon can boast Bell and Boucher on the court together, they become a nightmare for opposing offenses in the paint. Emerging at point guard for Oregon has been freshman Payton Pritchard (7.8 PPG, 4.1 APG), a local product who ran the offense to the tune of 16 assists versus just three turnovers against UCLA and USC last week. Watching Oregon’s tops-in-the-nation rim protection against arguably the most talented player in college basketball, Washington’s freshman phenom Markelle Fultz, will be quite a show on Wednesday night. Fultz is masterful at getting to the line, but Oregon only commits 16.8 fouls per game (42nd in NCAA), more remarkable considering their proficiency at blocking shots. On offense, Oregon’s attack should have no issues with Washignton - one of the worst defenses amongst all Power 7 schools (80.1 PPG, 300th in NCAA).

Coach Lorenzo Romar will have his work cut out for him if his Huskies are to realistically compete on Wednesday night with the Ducks. Boasting a seven-point halftime lead against Washington State, the Huskies laid down in the second half to their hated rivals, losing a 71-67 lead in a 12-point run for the Cougars that put the game out of reach. On paper this just isn’t a game that plays to Washington’s strengths, however they can’t be counted out of any game when they usually have the best player on the floor, Markelle Fultz. Fultz was just one rebound shy (26 points, 9 rebounds, 11 assists) of the first triple-double in Washington history and his season averages of 22.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 6.7 APG hint that it may not be a question of “if” but “when” Fultz does achieve that landmark. The 6’4” future lottery pick has put the Huskies on his back this season, but unfortunately that hasn’t translated into wins. Sophomore F Noah Dickerson (12.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG) has emerged as a solid complimentary threat in the paint for Fultz (16 PPG, 10.3 RPG over his last four games) and fellow sophomore David Crisp (14.1 PPG) is one of the Pac 12’s better long-range bombers (46.2% 3PT, 2.8 3PM), but Washington’s main issue is defense, or the lack of it. The Huskies youth leads to a lack of discipline and communication on the other side of the floor, and when you combine that with Coach Romar’s trademark up-tempo offense, it leads to a multitude of opportunities for opponents to score on long rebounds and odd-number fast breaks. Washington has that puncher’s chance of pulling an upset if they can attack Oregon with a barrage of threes, as their 42.4% 3PT is second in the nation.