NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, March 15th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
I will be gone all day Wednesday and possibly Thursday as I'm having another hernia surgery on Wednesday, sorry but couldn't avoid having done this week.
NCAAB Knowledge
North Carolina Central won at Northern Kentucky and Missouri, lost by 6 at Ohio State; they’re 20-3 vs teams outside the top 200. Eagles are most experienced team in country, starting five seniors- they lost by 18 to Iowa State in NCAA’s three years ago. MEAC teams are 3-3 in play-in games, winning last two. Cal-Davis is in NCAA’s for first time; they start two senior guards, are 5-6 vs teams in top 200. Three years ago, Cal Poly of Big West won their play-in game by 12. Last six years, favorites are 5-5-1 vs spread in the “JV (16-seed) ” play-in game.
Providence beat USC 70-69 in an 8-9 first round game LY, scoring on an OB under play as the game ended, a game Trojans led by 5 with 2:21 left. Friars are in NCAA’s for 4th year in row (1-3 last three years, with USC with only win); they won six of last seven games, are #278 experience team, starting four juniors. Southern Cal is 3-5 in its last eight games; they went 13-0 vs #251 pre-conference schedule. USC is #326 experience team; they start a freshman, three sophs; this is much longer trip for them than for Friars. Trojans are 2-6 vs teams in the top 60.
Armadillosports.com
Wednesday's Best Bet
By Sportsbook.ag
USC Trojans vs. Providence Friars
Sportsbook.ag Odds: USC (-3); Total set at 140.5
With a date against SMU on Friday afternoon on the line, the USC Trojans and Providence Friars meet on Wednesday night in the final “play-in” game of the NCAA Tournament.. These two teams met in the #8 vs. #9 game in this tournament a year ago and it was a highly contested affair that Providence was able to come out on top of with a 70-69 win. Will history repeat itself this year or will USC exact some measure of revenge?
Given that there is some recent familiarity with one another, this game should receive plenty of betting support both ways. That's not often the case in NCAA Tournament games with very few games having past numbers/trends to go on, but there is no question that many will have a strong opinion one way or another on this year's game based on how USC and Providence played against one another last year.
The one-point loss was good enough for USC to cover the +2 points they were getting, but this year they enter as the favorite and those three points may be a tad to high for many to consider laying.
However, the revenge angle can work in funny ways at times, especially when it was this opponent that ended your season a year ago. USC also knows that they played relatively well overall last year, it was just turnovers and poor free-throw shooting that cost them the W. The Trojans turned the ball over 12 times (compared to Providence's six) and went 7-for-13 from the charity stripe (53.8%). Providence knocked down 11 of their 14 free throws and that four-point margin more than makes up the margin of victory.
Yet, there were plenty of good things done by the Trojans a year ago, most notably shooting 53.8% from the floor. USC also hit nearly 50% of their 3-point shots (6-for-13) and held Providence to just 40.3% shooting from the field. Duplicate those numbers this year and it could very well be a rout for USC this time around.
USC is also a better, more experienced team this time around as the bulk of their roster from last year stayed for this campaign. Guys like Bennie Boatwright, Jordan McLaughlin, and Elijah Stewart have played at a much better rate all year long this season and they were three of the four Trojans who reached double figures against Providence a year ago.
There is no question those guys (and other returners) haven't forgotten about that sinking feeling they had when they lost last year and the same can't be said for the Friars. This year it's Providence who comes in as the younger team and they also weren't tested as much against elite competition playing in the Big East as USC was in the Pac-12.
Sure, the Pac-12 was rather top heavy and had some easy foes at the bottom of the conference, but USC also beat #3 seed UCLA this year while Providence's best win came over #6 seed Creighton.
With USC on a 5-2 ATS run the last seven times they've been listed as chalk and coming off a narrow 76-74 loss vs. UCLA in the Pac-12 Tournament, the Trojans have to be very confident heading into this contest. Throw in the revenge factor favoring the Trojans and the fact that Providence is 1-5 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as a program and we should see USC eliminate the mistakes they made last year, come out victorious.
NCAAB: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
USC vs. Providence
Wednesday’s First Four matchup in Dayton between the Providence Friars and the USC Trojans might be one of the most competitive games in the entire NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The winner will advance as the No. 11 seed in the East Region.
The Friars (20-12 SU and ATS) come out of the Big East as one of the most profitable teams in college basketball. They’re stout on defense and deliberate on offense, which masks some of their problems getting the ball in the hoop. Providence ranks No. 285 out of the 351 Division I teams in field-goal attempts and No. 248 in scoring at 70.3 points per game.
USC (24-9 SU, 16-16 ATS) was in the AP rankings over the holidays, but barely squeaked into March Madness after a late-season surge. The Trojans are more proficient on offense than Providence, ranking No. 56 overall at 78.7 points per game; however, USC also played a softer schedule in the Pac-12, and their perimeter defense is in question.
Trends of interest: Friars 13-3 ATS neutral site underdog, 21-7 ATS vs. team with a winning record. Trojans 2-7 ATS neutral site favorite, 4-10 ATS skid vs. team with a winning record.
Wednesday's First Four
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The First Four continues tonight in Dayton with two more games, including Southern Cal versus Providence for the right to advance and meet SMU. The opener pits NC Central and UC Davis. Let’s take a look at both contests.
North Carolina Central vs UC Davis
North Carolina Central (25-8 straight up, 6-0 against the spread) was listed as a 3.5-point favorite early this morning. The total was 131.5 points, while the Aggies were +150 on the money line (risk $100 to win $150).
NC Central earned the MEAC’s automatic bid by beating Norfolk State 67-59 in the finals of he conference tournament this past Saturday. Patrick Cole scored 18 points and grabbed eight rebounds to lead his team to victory as a seven-point favorite. The 126 combined points fell ‘under’ the 130.5-point total. Dajuan Graf added 16 points, four assists, three rebounds and two steals, while Rashaun Madison was also in double figures with 12 points on 3-of-6 shooting from 3-point range.
NC Central has been a single-digit favorite twice, going 2-0 ATS. The Eagles covered the under in both games as double-digit underdogs in losses at LSU (+10, 70-66) and at Ohio State (+24, 69-63). They won by 10 at Missouri and by eight at Northern Kentucky, a No. 15 seed in the Tournament.
Cole leads the Eagles in scoring (19.5 points per game), assists (5.7 APG) and rebounds (7.0 RPG). Graf (14.3 PPG) has a 173/91 assists-to-turnovers ratio and is knocking down 39.2 percent of his 3-point launches.
UC Davis (22-12 SU, 17-12 ATS) won three in a row at the Big West Tournament in Anaheim to garner the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Senior guard Brynton Lemar ‘s 20 points, including a go-ahead layup, helped the Aggies to a 50-47 win over UC Irvine as 5.5-point underdogs. Chima Monekie produced nine points, seven rebounds and three blocked shots.
UC Davis has been an underdog 17 times, going 8-9 ATS with six outright victories.
UC Davis faced just one opponent from a Power Five conference, losing 86-61 at California as an 18.5-point road underdog.
Lemar leads UCD in scoring with a 16.1 points-per-game average, shooting 38.1 percent from downtown. Moneke (14.4 PPG) leads the Aggies in rebounding (9.4 RPG), field-goal percentage (52.2%) and blocked shots (1.5 BPG).
The ‘under’ is 17-12-1 overall for UC Irvine after cashing in each of its last six outings.
The under’ has a 5-1 record in NC Central’s six games that had a total.
Southern California vs. Providence
As of early this morning, most books had USC (24-9 SU, 16-16 ATS) listed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 141. The Friars were +120 on the money line.
USC saw its three-game winning streak snapped by UCLA in a 76-74 loss in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Tournament at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Nevertheless, the Trojans covered the spread as 10-point underdogs. Jordan McLaughlin scored 18 points and handed out six assists compared to merely one turnover. Elijah Stewart scored 17 points before fouling out, while Jonah Mathews and Bennie Boatwright scored 11 points apiece.
USC has been a single-digit ‘chalk’ 10 times, posting a 5-5 spread record with two outright defeats.
Andy Enfield’s squad lost six of nine games against teams in the NCAA field, and one of those victories came over New Orleans, which was eliminated last night.
USC is led by Chimezie Metu, who averages 14.5 PPG and leads his team in rebounding (7.8 RPG), FG percentage (54.7%) and blocked shots (1.5 BPG). Boatwright (14.6) paces the Trojans in scoring, but he’s missed 17 games. McLaughlin (13.1 PPG) has a 181/73 assists-to-turnovers ratio with 50 steals, and he’s made 41.5 percent of his 3-point attempts. Stewart is averaging 12.4 points and 4.0 rebounds per game.
Providence (20-12 SU, 20-12 ATS) won six in a row to close the regular season and earn one of the final at-large berths. The Friars saw that winning streak snapped in a 70-58 loss to Creighton in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals. The Friars failed to cover as two-point underdogs, while the 128 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 145.5-point total. Kyron Cartwright finished with 15 points, seven rebounds and four assists before fouling out. Emmitt Holt added 14 points, while Alpha Diallo chipped in 10 points, six boards and two steals.
Providence has been a sensational money maker as an underdog this season, compiling a 12-4 spread record with seven outright wins.
Ed Cooley’s team is 8-8 in 16 games against team in the NCAA field. The Friars owns notable victories over Butler, Creighton, Rhode Island, Vermont, Marquette (twice), Seton Hall and Xavier.
PU is led by Rodney Bullock, who averages team-bests in scoring (15.7 PPG), rebounding (6.4 RPG), steals (1.2 SPG) and blocked shots (0.8 BPG). Cartwright (11.4 PPG) has a 215/92 assists-to-turnovers ratio and averages 1.1 steals per game.
The ‘under’ has cashed in four consecutive games for the Trojans to improve to 16-15-1 overall.
The ‘under’ is 16-14-2 overall for the Friars, but they’ve seen the ‘over’ go 7-4 in their last 11 outings.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Wesley Iwundu scored 24 points, dished out seven assists and pulled down six rebounds to lead Kansas State to a 95-88 win over Wake Forest as a one-point favorite at the First Four in Dayton. The 183 combined points soared ‘over’ the 147.5-point total with the Wildcats ripping the nets at a remarkable 66.0 percent clip. Bruce Weber’s team will face sixth-seeded Cincinnati on Friday in Sacramento.
Mount St. Mary’s won the First Four opener, edging New Orleans 67-66 as a one-point underdog. UNO coach Mark Slessinger made an incompetent decision not to foul with his team trailing by one with only 34 seconds left. This was a no-brainer with only a four-second difference between the shot clock. This isn’t the NBA when you can call TO and then get the ball at half court. The result was a rebound and timeout called with 2.9 seconds remaining. The length-of-the-court pass was broken up, allowing the Mountaineers to advance on to Buffalo where they’ll face the Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed, Villanova, on Thursday night. The 133 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 131.5-point total. Junior Robinson, who stands just 5’5”, dropped a game-high 23 points on the Privateers.
There were outrageous money-line tickets cashing in the first round of the NIT on Tuesday night. Boise State cashed a monster +640 payout for its backers in Tuesday’s 73-68 win at Utah as a 12-point road underdog. The Broncos advance to play Illinois in a second-round NIT game. Richmond went into SEC Country and won 71-64 at Alabama to hook up money-line supporters with a +320 return (paid $320 on $100 wagers). Also, Oakland went to Clemson and won 74-69 as a +500 ML ‘dog, while UC-Santa Barbara won 73-66 at California to cash +250 tickets.