NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, March 1st, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Arkansas won/covered its last five games; they’re 6-2 on SEC road, 4-1 as a road underdog, with losses by 26 at Kentucky, 5 at Missouri. Florida won eight of its last nine games, is 5-3 as a home favorite, covering three of last four home games. Florida won 81-72 at Arkansas Dec 29, their 6th series win in row; Gators had 16 offensive rebounds, but injured C Egbunu had five of them. Razorbacks are 0-7 in the Swamp since ’04, losing last visit 57-56 two years ago. Double digit home favorites are 12-12-1 vs spread in SEC games this season.
Northwestern lost five of its last seven games; they’re 4-3 at home, losing two of last three Big 14 home tilts. Wildcats need quality wins to get off bubble. Michigan won five of its last six games; they’re 2-5 on Big 14 road, winning by 12 at Indiana, 5 at Rutgers. Michigan won nine of last ten series games, with two of last three going OT; Wolverines won two of last three visits to Evanston- two of those three went to OT. Big 14 home teams are 12-12 vs spread in games with spread of 2 or less points.
Dayton won its last eight games (5-3 vs spread); they’re 5-3 as a home favorite, with 5 of 8 home wins by 11+ points. VCU won eight of its last nine games; they lost three of last four games outside of Richmond (won by 11 at crosstown rival Spiders). VCU beat Dayton 73-68 at home Jan 27, after trailing by 10 in first half; Rams were just 2-15 on arc, but had 19-11 edge on foul line. VCU is 4-2 vs Dayton in A-14 games; teams split pair of games here. A-14 home favorites of 5 or less points are 12-13 vs spread this season.
Ole Miss won six of its last eight games, is 4-4 on SEC road, 5-2 vs spread as a road underdog. Rebels won five of last seven games with Alabama, but lost three of last four visits here- they won 82-74 in last visit to Tuscaloosa, in ’15. Crimson Tide is 3-5 in its last eight games, losing three of last four home games. Alabama is 2-4 vs spread as a home favorite. Five of Bama’s last seven games were decided by 5 or less points. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-21 against the spread this season.
Xavier lost its last five games, is 1-8 vs spread since Somner was lost for the year; Musketeers are 5-3 in Big East home games, 3-3 as a home favorite. Marquette lost five of its last eight games, is 2-6 on Big East road, with only wins at Creighton/DePaul. Marquette hammered Xavier 83-61 at home 11 days ago, going 13-36 on arc (Xavier was 2-17). Musketeers are 6-3 in Big East meetings, winning all three games played here, by 7-4-8 points. Big East home teams are 9-6 vs number in game where spread was 3 or less points.
Louisville won four of its last five games, is just 4-4 on ACC road; favorites are 7-0-1 vs spread in those games— Cardinals are 3-0-1 as a road favorite, with road wins by 15-55-23-4 points. Wake Forest lost three of last five games; they’re 5-3 at home in ACC, winning last three home tilts. Deacons are 3-1 as a home underdog. Cards won 85-76/65-57 in its two ACC games with Wake, winning by 9 here couple years ago. Louisville is shooting 66% on foul line in ACC games, worst in league. ACC road favorites of 3 or less points are 7-5-1 vs spread.
Kansas State lost seven of last nine games, is 3-3 as a Big X road underdog; three of their five road losses are by 5 or less points. TCU lost its last five games, is 1-5 vs spread in its last six games; Horned Frogs are 4-4 at home; their last three home games were decided by total of 5 points. TCU is 3-2 in its last five games with Kansas State; Horned Frogs won 86-80 in OT in Little Apple Feb 1, going 10-17 on arc- they were down 5 with 2:19 left in regulation. Wildcats won three of its last four trips to TCU. Big X home favorites of 3 or less points are 4-8.
Texas lost its last five games, is 5-3 vs spread as a road underdog; six of their eight road losses (0-8 ) are by 9+ points. Longhorns beat Texas Tech 62-58 at home Feb 1; they’re 16-2 in last 18 meetings with Tech, but they lost two of last three visits to Lubbock. Tech lost its last three games, two in OT; they covered five of last seven games. Red Raiders are 5-3 at home, 2-3 as a home favorite, with wins by 1-1-6-8-6 points. Eight of last nine Tech games were decided by 8 or less points, or in OT. Big X home favorites of 8+ points are 7-20-1 vs spread.
Michigan State won six of last eight games, but is 1-5 in last six road games; they’re 2-4 as a Big 14 road underdog- their only Big 14 road wins are at Minnesota/Nebraska. Illinois won its last three games, all as underdogs, allowing average of 57.7 pts/game; they lost three of last four home games. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in Illini home games. MSU won four of last six games with Illinois, winning by 16-7 points in last two visits here. Big 14 home favorites of 3 or less points are 14-11 vs spread this season.
USC lost its last four games, is squarely on bubble; Trojans are 4-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, with wins by 16-3-8-26 in Galen Center. Wazzu won its last two games after a 2-10 skid; Coogs are 5-2 vs spread as a road underdog. USC shot 68% inside arc, won 86-77 at Washington State Feb 4; Coogs took only five FT’s the whole game (USC was 13-20). Trojans won last three series games, by 13-10-9 points- teams split last four meetings here. Double digit home favorites are 12-17-1 vs spread in Pac-12 tilts this season.
UNLV is in freefall, losing nine games in row in worst stretch in program history. Rebels are 2-6 at home, 1-5 vs spread as a home underdog. Utah State is 5-4 in its last nine games, but 1-7 on MW road, with only win by 6 at San Jose State. Aggies are 6-2-1 vs spread in their last nine games. USU made 13-21 on arc in 79-63 home win over UNLV Jan 7; home side won five of six Mountain West series games. Aggies lost 62-42/79-77 in last two regular season meetings here. Mountain West road favorites of 5 or less points are 6-7-1 vs spread this season.
OVC tournament, Nashville
Tennessee State beat SE Missouri 65-62 in only meeting Jan 5; TSU is 10-3 in last 13 series games, 2-2 in last four. Tigers are 0-1 in OVC tourney games the last three years; SEMo is 0-1 the last two years- not everyone makes this tourney. TSU won four of its last six games, lost by only 5 at OVC kingpin Belmont in their last game- they start three seniors. Redhawks are 3-4 in last seven games but did win three of last five on the road- they start two freshmen, three seniors, which is odd. SEMo forces turnovers 21.2% of time in OVC, best in league.
Murray State went 8-8 in OVC after being picked to win their division; Racers’ first non-winning OVC season since at least 2001. Racers lost last three games, allowing 82.3 pts/game. Murray has #11 eFG% defense in OVC. Tennessee Tech beat Murray 71-67 at home Jan 7, its second win a row over the Racers after 11 consecutive losses. Eagles have #11 eFG% offense in OVC, making only 32.7% of their 3’s. Tech is 1-2 in OVC tourney games the last four years; since 2003, Murray is 17-10 in this tourney, but 2-3 the last three years.
Armadillosports.com
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Arkansas at Florida
Florida (23-6 straight up, 16-11 against the spread) had its nine-game winning streak snapped in Saturday’s 76-66 loss at Kentucky as a 4.5-point road underdog. Mike White’s team raced out to an 8-0 lead and didn’t trail until early in the second half. However, when foul trouble became an issue with more than 10 minutes remaining, the Gators couldn’t be physical enough to contain Malik Monk. The true freshman guard erupted for 30 of his 33 points after halftime. KeVaughn Allen scored a team-best 24 points thanks to 5-of-11 shooting from 3-point land. Justin Leon was also in double figures with 13 points. Devin Robinson contributed nine points and 11 rebounds, while Chris Chiozza finished with nine points, five rebounds and five assists. UK was sent to the free throw line 27 times, hitting 22 of those attempts. Meanwhile, UF was rewarded merely six shots from the charity stripe.
Florida has won outright in eight of its nine home games, going 5-4 ATS. The Gators took their only O-Dome defeat by one to Vanderbilt. -- Florida has won six in a row over Arkansas, including this year’s SEC opener at Bud Walton Arena. The Gators went to Fayetteville on Dec. 29 and captured an 81-72 win as 1.5-point road favorites. The 153 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 149-point total. Allen, a product of Little Rock who brushed off a strong pitch from Mike Anderson after Billy Donovan took the Oklahoma City job, dropped 21 points on the Razorbacks. Robinson added 17 points, seven rebounds and three blocked shots, while Kasey Hill had 10 points and six assists. Kevarrius Hayes was also in double figures with 10 points and six boards. Daryl Macon scored a game-high 22 points in the losing effort, while Moses Kingsley tallied 13 points, 14 boards and four rejections.
UF is No. 5 in the RPI Rankings and No. 12 in the Associated Press’s poll. The Gators are 1-4 against the RPI Top 25, 5-6 versus Top 50 and 15-6 against the Top 100. They have neutral-court victories over Miami, Seton Hall, Belmont, St. Bonaventure and Florida Gulf Coast. UF also has home wins over Kentucky, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Georgia Tennessee and Texas A&M, in addition to road wins at Arkansas, at Alabama, at Georgia and at Auburn.
Allen leads UF in scoring with a 14.0 points-per-game average. He is averaging 19.5 PPG in the last four contests, including a 26-point effort in an 81-66 home win over South Carolina last week. Canyon Barry (12.3 PPG) is hitting an SEC-best 89.9 percent of his free throws, but the grad transfer from College of Charleston has struggled mightily since spraining his ankle at Mississippi State two Saturdays ago. Barry went scoreless in just nine minutes of playing time against the Gamecocks, and he went 1-of-5 from the field at UK and scored only three points. Robinson (11.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG) is UF’s third player averaging in double figures.
As of early this morning, most books had Florida installed as an 11-point home favorite. UF owns a 3-4 spread record in seven games as a double-digit home ‘chalk.’
Arkansas (22-7 SU, 15-12 ATS) owns a 6-4 record both SU and ATS in 10 road assignments. The Razorbacks have been road underdogs seven times, posting a 4-3 record both SU and ATS. This will be their second games as double-digit road ‘dogs, losing 97-71 at UK as 17-point ‘dogs last month.
Mike Anderson’s team has won five in a row both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 79-68 win at Auburn as a one-point road favorite. Jaylen Barford and Dusty Hannahs scored 20 and 18 points, respectively, to pace the winners. Macon added 13 points off the bench in only 21 minutes of action.
Hannahs (14.7 PPG) leads the team in scoring thanks to 39.0 percent shooting from downtown and 88.0 percent shooting from the FT line. Macon is averaging 13.7 PPG, draining 39.2 percent of his 3’s and 87.3 percent of his FTs. Barford (12.2 PPG) and Kingsley (11.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG) are also scoring in double figures. Kingsley has a team-best 78 blocked shots.
Arkansas is No. 29 in the RPI, posting a 0-33 record against the Top 25, a 3-5 mark versus the Top 50 and a 10-5 record against the Top 100. The Hogs have road wins at Vandy, at South Carolina, at Tennessee, at Texas A&M and at Auburn. They’ve also registered home wins over UT-Arlington, Houston, Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M.
In Joe Lunardi’s latest edition of ‘Bracketology’ at ESPN.com, he has Arkansas as a No. 9 seed that would take on Dayton in the Round of 64.
The ‘over’ is 15-12 overall for the Hogs, but they’ve watched the ‘under’ go 6-4 in their 10 road contests.
The ‘under’ is 14-13 overall for UF, but it has seen the ‘over’ go 5-4 at home. The ‘under’ is on a 5-2 run for the Gators in their last seven outings.
Marquette at Xavier
As of early this morning, most spots had Xavier (18-11 SU, 11-17 ATS) listed as a two-point home favorite.
Chris Mack’s team is 12-3 SU and 7-7 ATS at home this year, going 0-3 in a trio of single-digit home favorite situations.
Xavier has lost five in a row both SU and ATS to fall to 8-8 in Big East play. Nevertheless, the Musketeers are still tabbed as a No. 9 seed by Lunardi and would face Miami in ESPN.com current bracket. They are No. 27 in the RPI even though they’re 1-7 against the Top 25. Xavier is 3-8 versus the Top 50 and 8-10 against the Top 100.
Xavier has home wins over Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Utah, Providence and Georgetown. Also, the Musketeers have wins at Georgetown and at Creighton, in addition to a neutral-court triumph over Clemson.
Xavier took a crushing loss in late January when starting guard Edwin Sumner went down with a season-ending ACL tear. The sophomore was averaging 15.0 points, 5.0 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. The Musketeers won their first three games without Sumner prior to the current five-game slide.
Xavier is mired in an atrocious 2-12 ATS slump.
Xavier lost an 88-79 decision Sunday to Butler as a 2.5-point home underdog. Trevon Bluiett scored 21 points and J.P. Macura had 17 in the losing effort. Quentin Goodin contributed 11 points, seven assists and six rebounds.
Bluiett is averaging 17.9 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, while Macura (14.6 PPG) is also averaging in double figures for Mack’s team.
Marquette (17-11 SU, 14-14 ATS) has lost six of nine road games while going 4-5 ATS. The Golden Eagles have been road underdogs seven times, posting a 3-4 spread record with two outright victories at Georgia and at Creighton.
Marquette is a part of Lunardi’s ‘Last Four In’ and would be facing Seton Hall in Dayton in The First Four.
Marquette is in bounce-back mode after losing a 73-69 decision Saturday at Providence as a one-point road underdog. Markus Howard scored 24 points despite fouling out in only 24 minutes of playing time. Howard buried 6-of-8 launches from long range. Katin Reinhardt had 12 points, four assists and three rebounds.
When these team met in Milwaukee 11 days ago at Bradley Center, Marquette cruised to an 83-61 win as a six-point home ‘chalk.’ The 144 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 152.5-point tally. Howard exploded for 34 points thanks to nine 3-balls on 12 attempts. Andrew Rowsey added 18 points and seven assists, while Haanif Cheatham produced 15 points and eight rebounds. We should note that Xavier’s Bluiett wasn’t in uniform due to an injury. Sean O’Mara scored a team-best 14 to go with five rebounds and three blocks in 20 minutes of PT from off the bench.
Howard is averaging a team-high 12.9 PPG for Marquette, shooting 50.7 percent from the field, 55.4 percent from 3-point land and 91.7 percent from the charity stripe. Luke Fischer (11.3 PPG) leads the Golden Eagles in rebounding (6.0 RPG), field-goal percentage (64.7%) and blocked shots (1.6 BPG).
Totals have been an overall wash (14-14) for the Musketeers, but they’ve seen the ‘under’ go 9-5 in their home games.
The ‘under’ is 15-13 overall for Marquette after cashing in five consecutive games. The Golden Eagles have watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 in their nine road assignments.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
UConn guard Jalen Adams is ‘questionable’ tonight at East Carolina due to an ankle sprain. Adams is averaging 14.6 points, 6.4 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 1.0 steals per game.
Georgia will be without Yante Maten (18.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and Jordan Harris (5.2 PPG) tonight at home vs. Auburn. The Bulldogs were favored by five early this morning. They are an abysmal 3-9 ATS at home inside of Stegeman Coliseum this year. Meanwhile, Auburn is 7-4 ATS on the road. The SEC Network will provide the telecast for this 6:30 p.m. Eastern tip in Athens.
In other SEC action, Alabama is a four-point home favorite vs. Ole Miss at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network. Also, Tennessee is a six-point road ‘chalk’ at LSU on the SEC Network’s alternate channel at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
The pressure is on Chris Collins’s Northwestern team. This program has never been to the NCAA Tournament and appeared to be a lock earlier this month to make its first-even appearance. However, the Wildcats are 2-5 both SU and ATS in their last seven games. They are at home tonight vs. Michigan as a one-point home favorite. The Big Ten Network will have the broadcast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
The ‘under’ is 10-4-1 in Northwestern’s last 15 games. On the flip side, the ‘over’ is 15-5 in Michigan’s last 20 contests.
Michigan has won five of its last six games, going 4-2 ATS.
Boise State has lost seven in a row ATS after falling 74-67 last night to Fresno State as a four-point home favorite.
Trends to Watch - Wednesday
VegasInsider.com
Time to Wake Up
Wake Forest welcomes Louisville to 'The Joel' looking to improve their outlook for the postseason. The NCAA Tournament ship likely has sailed, but they can get a strong NIT seed with a quality win. The Cardinals head in as just a four-point favorite, so Vegas is expected a tight battle down to the last shot.
Louisville enters the game 5-0 ATS in their past five as a road favorite, and 19-7-1 ATS in their past 27 overall as a favorite. However, they're 6-13-1 ATS in their past 20 road outings against a team with a home winning percentage over .600. The Demon Deacons have been outstanding against the number lately, posting a 5-1 ATS mark in their past six at home. However, they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home agaisnt a team with a winning road record.
If you like totals, the 'over' trends for both sides should definitely be of interest. The over is 5-0 in Louisville's past five as a favorite, 6-1 in their past seven overall and 4-1 in their past five on the road. The over is also 4-1 in their past five road outings against a team with a winning home mark. The over trends are even more impressive for Wake. The over is 11-2 in their past 13 overall, 28-13-1 in their past 42 home outings and a perfect 7-0 in their past seven against teams with an overall winning percentage over .600. The total sits at 154 as of early Wednesday morning.
Trouble Bruin
Washington heads to Pauley Pavilion looking to upset UCLA, but that's going to be a very tall order. The Huskies are on the verge of losing their 20th game of the regular season while No. 2 UCLA is searching for its 27th victory overall. It's a tale of two seasons, and it's mostly been a grim story for the Huskies.
The last time these sides met it was awful, as UCLA embarrassed Washington 107-66 in Seattle as 10 1/2-point favorites. That was one of 10 straight losses for the Huskies, and they have been equally poor against the number. Washington is just 1-6 ATS over their past seven games and 5-16-1 ATS in their past 22 outings.
UCLA has won seven in a row since back-to-back losses Jan. 21-25. They have struggled against the number, though, going just 3-6 ATS over their past nine games and 5-12 ATS over the past 17 contests overall. They're also just 1-6 ATS in their past seven games as a favorite of 13 or more points and 5-16 ATS in their past 21 league games. UCLA is 7-3 ATS in their past 10 against Washington, however, including the first meeting this season.
If you're a total bettor, the 'under' has been the trend for both sides. While the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five in this series, the 'under' is 11-1 in Washington's past 12 as an underdog. The under is also a perfect 7-0 in their past seven on the road. For UCLA, the under is 5-1 in their past six overall and 4-1 in their past five as a favorite.
Here Kitty, Kitty
The America East Conference tourney gets underway, and top-seed Vermont is in action against the lowest seed Maine. The Catamounts carry the flag for the conference at 26-5 SU, including a perfect 16-0 in league play during the regular season. UVM is a team which could be very dangerous in the NCAA Tournament in the right matchup. Remember, we've seen it before. Just ask Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim. These teams met twice in the regular season with Vermont winning 90-77 on Jan. 5 in Orono, and 74-53 at home on Feb. 1. The Catamounts enter as 24 1/2-point favorites.
No. 2 seed Stony Brook might be the only team with a chance to upend Vermont. They will play host to Binghamton, looking to get back on track. The Seawolves have dropped two in a row, both on the road, including a 66-51 loss at Vermont last time out on Saturday in regular season finale. These teams met twice, and Stony Brook's last taste of victory came against the Bearcats. SB topped Binghamton 76-55 on Feb. 18, but the Bearcats topped the Seawolves 71-67 back on Jan. 22 in Binghamton. The Bearcats have dropped eight in a row by an average of 11.5 points per game.
Maryland-Baltimore County and New Hampshire may be the best battle in the first round of the tourney. The Wildcats of UNH enter as four-point favorites, and they're looking to run their winning streak to six games. That win streak includes a 94-90 overtime victory against the Retrievers in the regular season finale on Saturday. In fact, both games between UMBC and UNH went to overtime this season with an average of 196 points in each meeting. The line is currently set at 148 1/2 as of Wednesday morning, so that might be a popular 'over' bet.
In the final game of the first round, Albany hosts Hartford. The two sides met twice in the regular season, with the Hawks falling by an average of 15.5 points. As such, the Great Danes are favored by 16 points.
Bye Bye Blackbird?
LIU-Brooklyn plays host to Robert Morris in first-round of Northeast Conference play. The Blackbirds were dumped 67-63 at home against the Colonials of RMU back on Feb. 2, and LIU hopes it's not Groundhog Day all over again. LIU topped Robert Morris by a 65-54 count on Jan. 5 in the first meeting in Pittsburgh. Brooklyn has won six straight and covered their only two games with a spread during the span. The Blackbirds are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 postseason games, including 8-3 ATS in their past 11 NEC Tournament outings.
UCLA hosts Washington
By: Dave Schoenholt
StatFox.com
#3 UCLA looks to keep pace atop the Pac-12 standings when they host floundering Washington on Wednesday night.
Winners of seven straight (3-4 ATS in that span), the streaking #3 Bruins face what seems to be an easy task of giving the 9-19 Huskies their 11th straight defeat on Wednesday night. Washington (2-9 ATS over those 11 losses) has only hit their offensive season average of 77.5 PPG (65th overall) once in the past eleven games, and will potentially be without star G Markelle Fultz (knee). Fultz, who averages a Pac-12 leading 23.2 points per game along with 5.9 assists per game, has only played in two of Washington’s last five games. The freshman has sat out the Huskies’ last three road contests with knee soreness, and it’s fair to wonder if – given what’s at stake for Fultz’s professional future – we’ll see the consensus future lottery pick again in a college uniform. The Huskies are 0-7 (2-5 ATS) on the road in Pac-12 play and are coming off a loss at cross-state rival Washington State 77-71 (UW +3.5) on Sunday. UCLA (15-14 ATS) meanwhile pulled of an impressive road sweep of Arizona State and Arizona this past week, getting revenge against the #4 Wildcats in the process (77-72, UCLA +2.5). Arizona had handed UCLA their only loss at Pauley Pavilion this season (Jan. 21). 7-8 ATS at home, the Bruins finish the season on Saturday hosting Washington State after Wednesday’s tilt against the Huskies as they look to go 15-3 overall in conference play. Unfortunately, with Oregon and Arizona also favored to win their games this week, UCLA may not be able to move higher than third place in the conference. Washington and UCLA have already met once this season, with the Bruins thrashing the Huskies, 107-66 (UCLA -10.5) in Seattle. The 41-point margin was both UCLA’s largest margin of victory and Washington’s worst defeat this season. UCLA has broken 100 points four times in Pac-12 play, but this was the first instance [of 100+ points for UCLA in conference play] where the total was still UNDER. Washington’s total has been UNDER in its last nine games while UCLA’s has been UNDER in four of its last five. The last time these two teams met at Pauley Pavilion, Washington escaped with an 86-84 win (Wash +5, Jan ’16). UCLA is 6-4 (7-3 ATS) in the past ten meetings between these two schools.
Only Oregon State’s 1-16 conference mark keeps Washington from the cellar of the Pac-12 standings. Even the individual attributes of Fultz hasn’t kept Coach Lorenzo Romar’s team from some awful basketball. Washington is getting beat by an average of 10.4 PPG in conference play; averaging just 70.9 PPG. If the Huskies can’t get 80+ points from their offense, which they were doing with regularity in non-conference play, their 329th overall defense (80.8 PPG) will not be able to keep them competitive. This especially comes into play against elite offensive teams like UCLA, as the Bruins shot 60.6% FG (45% 3PT) in their 41-point win over Washington earlier this season. The Huskies also shot themselves in the foot in that contest, making just 9-of-19 from the free throw line and committing 20 turnovers to just 10 assists. Fultz had 25 points in the loss, while his teammates combined to go 2-for-17 from three with five assists and 15 turnovers. On defense, Washington allowed four Bruins to score 20+ points. Whether Fultz plays or not, competing on Wednesday will be a very tall task, but coming into Pauley Pavilion without Fultz suited up could be a recipe for another embarrassment. G David Crisp (14.3 PPG) had his only single-digit output of conference play against UCLA. Crisp is the number one option without Fultz on the floor, and struggled as the main focus of Washington State’s defense on Sunday (5-for-18 FG, 2-for-10 3PT). Fellow sophomore Noah Dickerson (11.5 PPG, 8 RPG) is coming on lately for the Huskies with eight straight double-figure scoring efforts. Dickerson will have his hands full with UCLA’s deep and talented frontcourt, but did register his first double-double in conference play on Sunday (16 pts, 13 reb).
Like Washington, UCLA features their well-known freshman, G Lonzo Ball (14.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 7.6 APG, 1.9 SPG), also a consensus future lottery pick. Ball, who leads the nation in assists, also has a stellar supporting cast – unlike his counterpart, Fultz. Coach Steve Alford has been able to mesh his veterans with Ball and Pac-12 FG% leader F T.J. Leaf (16.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 63% FG) to ascend to a March contender. The number three team in the nation, UCLA has a legitimate shot at a number one seed in the NCAA tournament with a good showing next week in their conference tournament. UCLA’s detractors point out the Bruins defense (or lack of) at 75.6 PPG allowed (240th in NCAA). While UCLA has allowed 76.9 points per game in conference play, their fast pace of play on offense (76.2 possessions per game) hides the fact that they hold opponents to just 44.8% from inside the arc (28th in NCAA) and allow only 1.02 points per-possession (41st in NCAA). The Bruins are also improving in the points-allowed category as of late, as they’ve held five of their last seven opponents at 75 or less points, and only allowed one of their last six opponents to shoot better than 40% from three. On Sunday, UCLA outlasted #4 Arizona not on the speed of their offense but based on the work of their frontcourt on the offensive glass. UCLA had 19 second chance points (to Arizona’s four). The Bruins outrebounded Arizona 9-1 on the offensive glass in a second half that saw UCLA outscore Arizona 38-29. The Bruins put five players in double-figures, which is no surprise considering six Bruins average over 10.0 PPG on the season. UCLA’s offense, arguably the best in the country, ranks in the top five in overall points per game, FG%, 3PT%, assists per game, and assist-to-turnover ratio. G Bryce Alford (16.1 PPG, 47% FG, 46% 3PT) has seen his efficiency skyrocket in his senior season alongside Ball, while junior C Thomas Welsh (10.6 PPG, 8.7 RPG) is averaging 12.6 PPG and 11.7 RPG over his last three. Welsh scored 12 of his 14 points against Arizona in the second half.