NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, March 22nd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Central Florida coach Dawkins has already won two NIT titles; his Knights won eight of last nine games, winning on tough Illinois State court Monday. UCF played two starters 40:00, a third 38:00, the other two 30:00- they only used seven guys in game by 13 at half. UCF is 11-3 outside AAC; their two NIT wins are by total of six points. Illinois has an interim coach while new coach Underwood observes from stands; Illini won last two games by 25-15 points, both at home- they are 12-3 outside Big 14 and start three seniors. Last two years, AAC teams are 9-7 vs Big 14 teams.
Texas-Arlington is 10-3 outside Sun Belt; they’re 14-0 at home this year and won their first two NIT games by 16 points each- none of their guys played 30:00 Monday vs Akron. Mavericks are #14 experience team, starting three juniors, two seniors. Cal-Bakersfield is the #15 experience team, starting two juniors, three seniors; Roadrunners played two guys 33:00+ in surprisingly easy win at Colorado State Monday. Bakersfield is only 9-6 outside WAC but they’ve won road games at Cal/Colorado State in this tournament, scoring 77 pts/game- they have #3 eFG% defense in country.
Idaho is 4-6 outside Big Sky, but they won by 8 at Little Rock of Sun Belt back in November; Vandals won six of last seven games, winning last two true road games, at No Arizona/So Utah. Texas State lost six of last eight games; they KO’d #1-seed Arlington from Sun Belt tourney, then lost final by 6 to Troy State. Bobcats play one of 10 slowest tempos in country and Idaho plays #270 tempo, so this should be half-court game. Big Sky/Sun Belt teams split six meetings over last two years and Sun Belt team was favored in all six games.
17-18 Ill-Chicago needs win here to get to .500 for season; they’re least experienced team in the country, turning ball over 22% of time (#339)- they lost last three true road games, with last true road win Feb 17 at Detroit. Coastal Carolina is 5-8 outside Sun Belt; they won first two home games in this tournament by 16-9 points. Chanticleers won six of last seven home games; they can’t shoot (#327 on foul line, #254 on arc), but they’re 10-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Coastal is #115 experience team in country. Last two years, Sun Belt teams are 3-0 vs Horizon teams (2-1 vs spread).
Utah Valley won six of its last seven games; they’re 8-7 outside WAC, winning road games at Georgia Southern/Rice in this tournament. Wolverines are deep team that plays #13 pace- the Wyoming altitude won’t bother them. Wyoming is 10-3 outside Mountain West; they beat UMKC of WAC by 11 in last game. Cowboys play #14 pace, so we have two teams in high altitude who will go up and down court. Wyoming won its last four home games. Utah Valley won its last five true road games. WAC has higher rating than Ivy League; it is best league in country that isn’t in Las Vegas rotation during season.
Armadillosports.com
NIT Betting Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Illinois at Central Florida
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Central Florida (-3.5); Total set at 130.5
While there aren't many casual NCAA basketball bettors paying attention to the NIT tournament this year, that 32-team tournament is halfway through their Elite Eight, with the remaining two games going off tonight.
It's been a tournament of upsets as there will be at least two teams seeded #6 or higher making their way to New York for the Final Four in the NIT, and it's the game between #4 Illinois and #2 UCF that has grabbed my attention tonight.
UCF got here with a dramatic one-point win @ Illinois State on Monday (63-62) as the Knights used a dominant second half to get the W. UCF trailed by 13 points at halftime, but the 14 point swing in the 2nd half was capped off with some last second heroics to advance.
Now UCF hosts another NIT game (they won their opener here over Colorado 79-74) against a team from the state of Illinois and would love to punch their ticket to New York and set up a date with TCU next week.
Illinois, despite being the higher seed for this contest has to go on the road (the NIT does odd things with home/away) for this game and they were not the same team away from home.
The Illini was just 3-6 SU on the road this season and not having home court as the higher seed is basically the reason they are catching points. UCF went 14-3 SU in this building on the year and did beat some quality foes there; most notably the Cincinnati Bearcats who were a 6seed in the NCAA Tournament.
But rather then back a side in this one it's the total that presents more value as the majority of bettors, according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers, believe the stakes and UCF's stingy defense (61.1 points allowed per game) will lead to a relatively low-scoring affair.
About 65% of the action is on the 'under' tonight, and when you consider that both sides are coming off tremendous defensive performances on Monday, getting 'under' action isn't all that surprising.
After all, Illinois has yet to allow an opponent to score more then 57 points against them in this tournament and it was UCF's defensive play that helped turn the tide for them against Illinois State on Monday.
Yet, even with all of those factors favoring a low-scoring game, this total has actually moved up a point to 130.5 after opening at 129.5.
That's a sign that not ALL bettors believe tonight's game will be a defensive battle as some of the bigger wagers are going the other way.
Yes, the stakes of reaching a NIT Final Four are high, but with a close game expected and neither side wanting to concede defeat until the last possible moment, the 'over' is definitely the way to go here.
Not conceding means that whomever is trailing down the stretch will have no problem continuing to foul to keep their hopes of advancing alive for as long as possible and points added without time running off is music to the ears of 'over' bettors.
Furthermore, Illinois has shown to be an offensive-minded group this tournament with 82 and 71 points scored in their two victories, and UCF didn't exactly have any quarrels about playing an uptempo game at home in the first round when they beat Colorado.
The 153 points scored in that UCF game could very well mirror tonight's final result, and with UCF sporting a 9-2 O/U record in their last 11 at home against a bad road team, and 21-10-1 O/U the last 32 times they've been a home favorite, look for tonight's game to sail well past this total.