NCAAB Betting News and Notes Wednesday, November 23rd, 2016

NCAAB Knowledge

Michigan is 4-0 with wins over Marquette by 18, SMU by 22; Wolverines are experienced but thin team playing one of 15 slowest tempos in country- they’re shooting 38.4% on arc, 85.3% on foul line (#2 in country). South Carolina is also 4-0 but has only one top 150 win (Monmouth in OT); Gamecocks are turning ball over 20.9% of time, are making 40.4% on arc. Big 14 teams are 19-17 vs spread, 11-14 as favorites. SEC teams are 21-19 vs spread, 6-4 as underdogs.

UL-Lafayette is 0-2 vs top 300 teams, losing by 12 at Minnesota, 1 at Montana State; Ragin’ Cajuns won last game by a point at home over #338 Delaware State. ULL is forcing turnovers 24.9% of time but shooting just 38.3% inside arc. James Madison is scoring 63.5 pts/game in its 0-4 start under a new coach (they were 21-11 LY but fired the coach). Dukes are turning ball over 23.9% of time and they haven’t played a top 100 team yet. CAA teams are 12-15 vs spread.

Missouri State made 46.6% of its 3’s in crushing couple of stiffs to start season; Bears also forced turnovers on 26.7% of possessions- they start two sophs, two juniors. DePaul lost by 7 at home to Rutgers in its only top 200 game so far; they beat two other stiffs. Blue Demons are making 38.6% on arc but are getting beat on boards. MVC teams are 11-10 vs spread so far this season, 5-6 as underdogs away from home. Big East home favorites are 5-4 against spread.

San Francisco won its first two games by 2-12 points with road win in Santa Barbara; young Dons turned ball over 22.3% of time while playing a lot of guys using a slow tempo- they’ve also forced turnovers 24.3% of time, but competition hasn’t been great. Troy State is 0-2 on road, losing at UAB by 23, Eastern Illinois by 4; Trojans are turning ball over 22.4% of time, shooting just 22.5% on arc, not a great combination. WCC home favorites are 8-7 vs spread; Sun Belt road underdogs are 9-10.

Battle for Atlantis

Wichita State is 4-0, playing its subs most of anyone in country; they won their two top 200 games by 37-27 points. Shockers are shooting 39.3% on arc, but this is their first game away from home this season. LSU beat three cupcakes to open season, by 22-17-8 points; they’re bottom 25 team in experience, but are playing #61 tempo and making 39.3% on arc- this is also their first game away from home. MVC teams are 5-4 vs spread a favorites; SEC teams are 21-19 vs spread, 6-4 as underdogs.

Baylor is 3-0 with home wins over Oregon/Florida Gulf Coast; Bears are playing tempo #332 while starting four juniors, one senior- think they’re little better than expectations so far. VCU won its first three games over stiffs by 15-5-39 points; they struggled to beat #249 Liberty by 5 in only road game. Rams are turning ball over 22% of time, making just 61.4% on line- they’re an experienced team playing lot of guys. VCU lost six of last seven top 100 games vs teams outside the A-14.

Michigan State is #326 in experience and struggling against too tough a schedule; they lost to Arizona/Kentucky on neutral courts, beat FGCU by 1 at home- they’ve made only 54% of foul line, are turning ball over 23.2% of time. Spartans have talent so they’ll improve, but six of their top eight players are frosh/sophs. St John’s lost at Minnesota by 6 last week despite making 11-27 on arc; Red Storm are 4th-least experienced team playing tempo #26- not easy to do.

Louisville killed first three teams they played, all ranked #157 or better; Cardinals’ eFG% is 34.1%, #4 in country- they’re also forcing turnovers 22% of time. Louisville subs a lot and defends well; they’re smothering people with defense early on. Old Dominion hasn’t played in nine days since beating JMU/Richmond by total of 10 points; Monarchs are playing a bottom 10 tempo- their possessions last 0:21.1, 9th-slowest. Louisville will try and speed them up. C-USA underdogs are 9-7 vs spread.

Maui Classic— these teams are playing for third day in row

Oregon beat Tennessee 69-65 in OT yesterday, outscoring Vols 28-18 on foul line. Ducks’ star Brooks played 25:00, after playing 14:00 in his season debut Monday. Oregon is 3-2, turning ball over 21.7% of time, making just 27.5% on arc. UConn is 2-3 but yesterday’s win was over D-II Chaminade, which led early on second half. Huskies are thin because of injuries; their one D-I win this year was by 3 at #211 LMU. Winner here goes home 2-1 and is happy with week.

Oklahoma State got doors blown off by North Carolina last night; Cowboys are playing #8 pace in country, with #24 bench minutes- they’re shooting 38.5% on arc. Georgetown held on to beat Oregon Monday, then gave up 20 offensive rebounds in 73-57 loss to Wisconsin yesterday- they looked very sluggish/tired. Hoyas are forcing turnovers 24.8% of time, but unless OSU’s star G Evans is hurt (he had 30 vs UNC, looked very healthy), Georgetown is going to need way better effort than they gave up Badgers.

North Carolina won its first five D-I games, with 15-point win at Hawai’i last week closest of the five games; Tar Heels are rebounding over half their missed shots, plus they’re making 42% on the arc- they’ve just been lot better than everyone they’ve played. Wisconsin is an experienced team with whole squad back from LY’s 22-13 squad that made Sweet 16, and was 2-0 vs ACC teams, beating Pitt/Syracuse. Badgers play tempo, have been turning ball over a lot so far this month (21.9% of time).

Rider is playing 4th road game in row to start season; they beat couple of stiffs, then lost by 5 at South Florida, after they led by 8 with 11:19 left. Broncs are starting four seniors. Fordham is #2 in country, forcing turnovers 29% of time; Rams got waxed at East Tennessee to start season, have won four in row, since, with best win by 22 over #168 St Peter’s. A-14 home favorites are 5-13 vs spread this month; MAAC road underdogs are 7-9. A-14 teams are 12-4 in last 16 games vs MAAC squads, 7-6 vs spread when favored.

Tenn-Martin went went 41-28 last two years, then their coach bolted to be an assistant at NC State; no bueno. Skyhawks are 4-1 this month, with 86-83 loss at pretty good Ole Miss team. UTM is turning ball over 24.1% of time but they beat Cleveland State/Canisius- they’re starting four seniors with an interim coach trying to keep this job. Duquesne is 2-3 with home loss to Canisius; Dukes haven’t beaten a team in top 300. A-14 teams are 15-23 vs spread; OVC teams are 21-18.

Armadillosports.com

Battle 4 Atlantis Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

St. John’s vs. Michigan State

Michigan State (2-2 straight up, 0-3 against the spread) opened the season in Honolulu by dropping a heartbreaker to Arizona. The Wildcats captured a 65-63 win as one-point underdogs when Kadeem Allen went coast to coast for the game-winning bucket on a layup with 1.9 seconds remaining. The Spartans had pulled even on a 3-pointer by Tum Tum Nairn with seven seconds left. In the losing effort, MSU freshman Miles Bridges scored 21 points and grabbed seven rebounds in his collegiate debut.

Tom Izzo’s squad fell to 0-2 when it lost 69-48 to Kentucky at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The Wildcats easily took the cash as 6.5-point ‘chalk,’ while the 117 combined points fell way ‘under’ the 154-point tally. Kennedy Goins finished with nine points and eight rebounds, while Bridges had six points, 12 boards and three blocked shots. However, Bridges committed nine turnovers compared to just one assist and made only 2-of-12 shots from the field.

Since those two defeats, Michigan State has won a pair of home games over Mississippi Valley St. (100-53) and Florida Gulf Coast (78-77). Bridges had 24 points, 11 rebounds and six assists against the Delta Devils. It was a nice bounce-back performance for Bridges, who hit 11-of-14 shots and committed merely one turnover. In the win over the Eagles, a clock error forced FGC to rush a potential game-winning shot and the game was declared over in controversial fashion. Eron Harris, the transfer from West Virginia, knocked down all six of his launches from three-point land and finished with a game-high 31 points. Bridges added 13 points, seven boards, three blocked shots, three assists and two steals.

St. John’s (2-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) opened the year with a 100-53 triumph over Bethune Cookman in a non-lined affair. Federico Mussini scored 20 points thanks to 5-of-6 shooting from downtown, while Marcus LoVett had 19 points and seven assists compared to just one turnover. Yankuba Sima and Malik Ellison finished with 11 points apiece.

Chris Mullin’s second squad at his alma mater captured a 77-51 victory over Binghamton as a 15-point home ‘chalk.’ LoVett paced the winners with 23 points, four rebounds and four assists, while Shamorie Ponds contributed 21 points and 10 boards while burying 4-of-6 from long distance.

St. John’s took its first loss at Minnesota by a 92-86 count, but it covered the number as a seven-point underdog. LoVett had another excellent effort in defeat, producing 31 points and five assists. The redshirt freshman point guard connected on 3-of-5 attempts from 3-point range. Ponds had 23 points and eight boards, while Bashir Ahmed finished with 15 points and 10 rebounds.

The totals for the Red Storm have been a split (1-1).

The ‘under’ is 2-1 overall for the Spartans.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern in the first game of the evening session at the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas.

Several offshore books had the Spartans listed as 6.5-point favorites with a total of 150 early Tuesday evening.

Louisville vs. Old Dominion

Several offshores installed Louisville (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) as a 15-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 126.5.

Rick Pitino’s team opened the season by smashing Evansville 78-47 as a 22.5-point home favorite. The 125 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 140.5-point total. Junior forward Jaylen Johnson led the way with 19 points, 14 rebounds and three blocked shots. Johnson made 9-of-11 shots from the field. Donovan Mitchell, a sophomore guard, finished with 15 points, five rebounds, four steals and three assists. Anas Mahmoud contributed 10 points, five boards and three blocks.

U of L thumped William & Mary 91-58 as a 17.5-point home ‘chalk’ its next time out. Deng Adel produced 16 points, five rebounds, five assists and four steals, while freshman forward V.J. King finished with a team-high 17 points. Quentin Snider and Johnson scored 13 points apiece, with Johnson pulling down nine boards.

Louisville destroyed Long Beach State, 88-56 as a 21-point favorite to improve to 3-0. Johnson was the catalyst with 14 points and 11 rebounds, while Adel and Mangok Mathiang finished with 11 points apiece.

Old Dominion (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) opened the season on Nov. 11 with a 62-55 home win over James Madison as a four-point favorite. Brandan Stith led the way for the Monarchs with 23 points and 11 rebounds on 10-of-13 shooting from the field. Jordan Baker added 21 points, four rebounds and three steals. Baker drained 4-of-7 attempts from downtown.

ODU improved to 2-0 with a 64-61 win at Richmond as a 6.5-point road underdog. Ahmad Caver led the winner with 13 points, seven boards and five assists without a turnover. Zoran Talley added 12 points for the Monarchs.

The ‘under’ is a perfect 3-0 for the Cardinals.

The ‘under’ is 2-0 for ODU.

This game will tip 30 minutes after the conclusion of Michigan State vs. St. John’s.