NCAAB betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, November 30th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites
NCAAB Knowledge
Virginia Tech is 5-1 with 68-65 loss to Texas A&M on neutral floor last week; Hokies beat New Mexico/Nebraska in that tourney, are 2-1 vs top 100 teams. Tech is making 40% of 3’s, is #14 in country at protecting ball- they don’t start a senior (two sophs, two juniors). Michigan is 5-1 with a 61-49 loss at South Carolina; Wolverines have good wins over Marquette, SMU on neutral floor- they’re playing one of 10 slowest tempos in US, start two sophs, two seniors.
Purdue is 5-1 with 79-76 home loss to Villanova; they don’t have any top 100 wins. Boilers are great inside for a college team but can their guards handle Louisville’s defense? Purdue has #7 eFG% despite turning ball over 21.2% (#257) of time- they do make 41.5% on arc. Louisville is 5-1 after losing finals of Atlantis tourney to Baylor; Cardinals blew a 32-10 lead in that game. Cardinals forces turnovers 22% of time, has #4 eFG% defense in country.
TCU sprinted out to 24-8 lead in first 10:00 beat Washington 93-80 in Las Vegas four nights ago; now teams play again at TCU. Horned Frogs were 27-33 on line; both teams shot 53%+ inside arc, but both teams turned ball over 18 times. TCU is 6-0 with two top 100 wins, (other was over Illinois St); they forcing turnovers 25.3% of time, making 40.4% on arc. Washington is playing first true road game- their best win was over #168 Long Beach State. Huskies are #340 experience team in country.
St Joe’s beat Temple last two years by total of 3 points; they needed OT to beat the Owls in LY’s game. Hawks haven’t played in nine days since losing 2 of 3 in Virgin Islands tourney; they’re #296 experience team. St Joe’s is forcing turnovers 22.4% of time but missed departed star Bombay, who left early for NBA. Temple beat Florida State/West Va over weekend in NYC, in pair of great upsets- Owls are missing two of their best guards this season. Temple scored 52-67 points in its losses, 81+ in all four wins.
Middle Tennessee State is 6-1, beating UNCW by 5 in its only top 100 game; they lost at home to #137 Tennessee State, best team in OVC. Blue Raiders are #40 in experience; they’re forcing turnovers 22.4% of time, are playing pace #288. MTSU upset Auburn of SEC LY.- this is their first true road game of season. Ole Miss are 5-1 with 86-77 loss to Creighton in Virgin Island semis; Rebels’ best win is over #133 UMass. Ole Miss is #55 experience playing #48 pace- they start 3 juniors, 2 seniors. Middle Tennessee starts two juniors, two seniors.
Nebraska played in southern California Thurs-Sun, going 1-2, losing to UCLA by 11, Va Tech by 13; now they’re 3,000 miles east, playing Clemson team that is 3-2 with losses to Oklahoma, Xavier on neutral floor 10 days ago in Florida. Tigers are #11 experience team whose bench has played 2nd-fewest minutes in country- they’re playing #248 pace as a result. First true road game for Cornhuskers, who start four sophs- they’re shooting only 31.1% on the arc.
BYU is playing #3 pace in country; they lost last two games, to #74 Valpo in Las Vegas and at home to #256 Utah Valley, while making only 32% on arc. Cougars beat Utah State last three years by 12-10-11 points- they start a freshman/two sops but remember because of missions, their guys are little older than other teams’ guys. Utah State lost to Purdue/Texas Tech by 21-24 on its Cancun trip; Aggies are #235 experience- they’ve slipped since coach Morrill walked away at end of 2015 season.
Colorado won four of last five games with Colorado State; I’ll never advocate to give Eustachy 15 points, though. Buffs are 5-1, losing to Notre Dame by 6 on neutral floor, beating by Texas by 14 night after that game. Colorado is #51 experience team that has #13 eFG% defense- they’re starting four seniors, one junior. State has played 9th-easiest schedule in country, losing by 7 at Stanford in only road game. Rams are 5-1, but are turning ball over 21.8% of time, making 27.4% on arc.
North Carolina is 7-0 with three top 80 wins (Chattanooga/Okla St/Wisconsin) and road win at Hawai’i; Tar Heels are rebounding 46.6% of their own misses (#2 in country)- they beat Indiana by 15 in NCAAs last spring, making 11-20 on arc (Indiana was 13-31 in 71-possession game). First game in a week for UNC, which starts two juniors, two seniors. Indiana beat Kansas in OT on neutral floor, then lost in OT at Ft Wayne last week. Hoosiers are turning ball over 23.4% of time.
Virginia is 6-0 with two top 80 wins, by 33-11 points over Iowa/Providence; Cavaliers have #1 eFG% defense in country- they’re also playing slowest tempo in nation- they start three juniors, one senior. Virginia made 8-16 on arc in 64-58 win at Ohio State LY. Buckeyes are 6-0 so far vs schedule #321; their best win is over #56 Providence by 5 at home. OSU has #20 eFG% defense but is shooting 59.5% on foul line; four of their six wins are against teams outside top 200.
St Marys has its whole team back from LY; game like this will be important for them when NCAA bids are handed out in March. Gaels are 5-0 with a 61-57 win at Dayton; they beat UAB by 13 in Vegas over weekend. St Mary’s is experienced team that plays slow tempo and does not sub much- they’re shooting 62.9% inside arc (#1 in US). Stanford’s coach was UAB’s coach LY, so he got good scouting report from them I’m sure; Cardinal won 2 of 3 in Orlando over weekend, with only loss to Miami by 14.
Fort Wayne lost its two road games, by 9 at Arkansas, by 18 at Illinois State but their OT win at home over Indiana will be remembered in their town for long time. Mastodons start couple of sophs, two seniors; they beat Austin Peay 85-68 at home LY, making 12-26 on arc in game they trailed 33-29 at halftime. Governors lost by 28 at Dayton in their only top 200 game; they’re 2-2 vs D-I teams, with two other wins over stiffs. Austin Peay starts three seniors but beat Delaware in game by 1 when they led by 15 with 9:29 left.
UNLV’s interim coach LY was Todd Simon, who did admirable job in getting patchwork group of Rebels thru to end of season; now he is head coach at Southern Utah, which is 0-4 vs D-I teams, with losses by 11-15-12-14 points (they beat two stiffs). He won’t recognize many UNLV kids; they only have 3 or 4 guys back from LY. First road game for inexperienced UNLV team that is 4-2, with no top 200 wins, but SUU is #338 so that doesn’t matter here. First road games are only dicey but Rebels have better players.
Armadillosports.com
NCAAB: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Ohio St. at Virginia
When Virginia Cavaliers and Ohio State Buckeyes meet John Paul Jones Arena buckets will be at a premium. Virginia and Ohio State are both solid at keeping the ball out of their own basket. Defense the moniker for Cavaliers are allowing a nation-best 41.3 points/game. The Buckeyes are keep their opponents scrounging for buckets allowing 58.8 points/contest. Consider 'Under' - Cavaliers 15-3 'Under' L18, 6-1 'Under' vs Big Ten, Buckeyes 4-1-1 'Under' vs. ACC.
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Purdue at Louisville
As of early this morning, most betting shops had Louisville (5-1 straight up, 4-2 against the spread) listed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 138.5. -- Purdue (5-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) has won three consecutive head-to-head meetings with Louisville both SU and ATS. Those wins came in 2007, 2002 and 1997.
Louisville took its first loss of the season this past Friday in the finals of the Battle 4 Atlantis. Baylor captured a 66-63 win over the Cardinals as a three-point underdog, rallying from 15 down at intermission. U of L went ahead by 20 in the second half, but the Bears hit 11 straight shots during a 17-2 run and won in come-from-behind fashion for the third straight game. Johnathan Motley, a transfer from Missouri, and King McClure scored 15 points apiece for the winners. U of L’s Donovan Mitchell finished with a game-high 17 points.
Rick Pitino’s team advanced to the finals with wins over Wichita State (62-52) and Old Dominion (68-62). U of L needed overtime to get past the Monarchs as a 16.5-point ‘chalk.’ Quentin Snider scored a team-best 18 points, while Mitchell produced 15 points, seven rebounds and seven steals.
Louisville raced out to a 33-17 halftime advantage over Wichita State in the semifinals, eventually winning by a 62-52 count as a 2.5-point underdog. Mitchell and Snider led the way with 14 points apiece. Mitchell pulled down eight rebounds and dished out five assists compared to only one turnover.
Purdue has won four in a row while going 2-1 ATS since losing its only game to Villanova on Nov. 14. The defending national champs came into West Lafayette and won a 79-76 decision as 2.5-point road favorites.
Matt Painter’s squad is off a 79-68 home win over NJIT in a non-lined affair. Caleb Swanigan paced the Boilermakers with 22 points and 13 rebounds, while Vince Edwards contributed 12 points, six rebounds and five assists.
Purdue drained 9-of-12 attempts from 3-point range in the second half of its 96-71 win over Auburn in the finals of the Cancun Challenge. All five starters for the Boilers scored in double figures led by Carsen Edwards’s 21 points on 4-of-5 shooting from downtown. Swanigan had a double-double with 14 points and 10 rebounds, while Dakota Mathis tallied 12 points and seven assists compared to merely one turnover.
The ‘under’ is 4-1-1 overall for the Cardinals, who have seen the ‘under’ go 13-3-1 in their last 16 games dating back to last year. They’ve seen the ‘under’ cash in all three of their home outings.
The ‘over’ has hit in three of Purdue’s four games with a total.
Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
North Carolina at Indiana
North Carolina (7-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) will bring its unbeaten record to Bloomington to take on Indiana tonight at Assembly Hall. As of early this morning, most spots had UNC listed as a three-point favorite.
Roy Williams’s team will return to the court for the first time since wrapping up the Maui Classic with a 71-56 win over Wisconsin in the finals seven days ago. UNC covered the number in all three of its win in Hawaii, including the victory over the Badgers as a 4.5-point ‘chalk.’ Joel Berry II knocked down 9-of-12 shots en route to scoring a game-high 22 points. Kennedy Meeks added 15 points, 16 rebounds, two assists, two blocked shots and two steals.
UNC made the finals with victories over Oklahoma State (107-75) and Chaminade (104-61). Berry was the catalyst against the Cowboys, producing 24 points, five rebounds, four assists and three steals. He drained 4-of-6 attempts from 3-point range. Justin Jackson contributed 22 points, eight boards and six assists without a turnover.
Berry is averaging team-highs in scoring (17.1 points per game), assists (4.3 APG) and steals (1.7 SPG). He is shooting at a 55.9 percent clip from the field, 47.1 percent from 3-point land and 93.3 percent at the free-throw line. Jackson (15.4 PPG) has a 22/11 assists-to-turnovers ratio, while Meeks (13.7 PPG, 10.7 RPG) is averaging a double-double.
Indiana (4-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) opened the season in dramatic fashion by knocking off Kansas 103-99 in overtime at Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu. Junior guard James Blackmon scored 26 points to pace the Hoosiers, who won the back-and-forth contest as six-point underdogs. The game had 16 ties and 17 lead changes. IU dominated the boards by a 50-35 margin. Thomas Bryant had 19 points and 10 rebounds, while Juwan Morgan also pulled down 10 boards.
Indiana had to go to overtime again last Tuesday at Fort Wayne, but this time Tom Crean’s squad came out on the wrong end of a 71-68 decision. IU lost outright as a 13.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Bryant had 18 points and 12 rebounds in the losing effort. Blackmon finished with 16 points and six boards.
IU has additional victories at home over UMass (100-78), Liberty (87-48) and Mississippi Valley State (85-52).
Blackmon leads the Hoosiers in scoring with a 20.5 PPG average. He has buried 46.9 percent of his launches from behind the 3-point line.
The ‘over’ is 2-1 for IU, 1-0 in its only home game that had a total.
The ‘under’ is 4-2 overall for UNC, cashing its lone previous road assignment.
ESPN will provide the broadcast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Other notable games on tonight’s card include Virginia Tech at Michigan, SMU at Boise State, Nebraska at Clemson and Ohio State at Virginia.
There are these, too: Rutgers at Miami, Louisiana Tech at California, Temple at St. Joseph’s, Colorado State at Colorado and Saint Mary’s at Stanford.
Pittsburgh spanked Maryland 73-59 as a 4.5-point road underdog last night. The Panthers raced out to a 45-24 halftime lead and cruised to the easy victory. Michael Young finished with 25 points and nine rebounds, while Jamel Artis added 22 point and six boards.
George Washington collected a 77-74 win at Harvard as a three-point road underdog last night. Tyler Cavanaugh paced the Colonials with 20 points, seven rebounds and two blocked shots. Jaren Sina added 19 points for the winners.
Ethan Happ’s 24 points and 13 rebounds sparked Wisconsin to a 77-60 win over Syracuse as a six-point home favorite. Senior point guard Bronson Koenig splashed the nets for six 3-balls on nine attempts on his way to scoring 20 points in a turnover-free effort. Nigle Hayes just missed a triple double, finishing with nine points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists.
Duke beat Michigan State, 78-69 at Cameron Indoor Stadium, but the Spartans took the money as 13-point underdogs. The 147 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 145-point total. Amile Jefferson had 17 points and 13 boards.
Wednesday’s NCAAB Game of the Day: North Carolina at Indiana
By Covers.com
North Carolina Tar Heels at Indiana Hoosiers (+4, 163)
Roy Williams will coach his 1,000th collegiate game when third-ranked North Carolina visits No. 10 Indiana on Wednesday night in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Williams - who is 790-209 in 29 seasons at both Kansas and North Carolina - and the Tar Heels are 7-0 to start a season for the first time since 2008-09 after winning the Maui Invitational in Hawaii.
“I’m not jumping on any boat trying to figure out how great we are,” Williams told the Raleigh News & Observer. “We stink it up with the rest of them. We’ve just got to get better every day. I’ve never seen a national championship won the day before Thanksgiving.” Junior guard Joel Berry II leads five players scoring in double figures (17.1) for North Carolina and will get his biggest challenge against the Hoosiers, who own a victory over No. 5 Kansas and boast a similarly deep, experienced lineup. However, the Tar Heels may not have to face Indiana’s leading scorer James Blackmon Jr. (20.5), who suffered a knee injury last week and is questionable after missing Sunday’s win over Mississippi Valley State. The Hoosiers lost to North Carolina in the Eastern Regional final of the NCAA Tournament last season without Blackmon and Robert Johnson, but routed the Tar Heels 83-59 in their last matchup in Bloomington, Ind. in 2012.
LINE HISTORY: The Tar Heels opened as 3-point road favorites and that spread was quickly bumped up to 4 on Wednesday morning. The total opened at 163 and has yet to move. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
North Carolina - F L. Maye (Questionable, ankle), F T. Pinson (Early Feb, foot).
Indiana - G J. Blackmon Jr. (Probable, knee), F C. Hartman (Out Indefinitely, knee).
POWER RANKINGS: Tar Heels (-18) - Hoosiers (-13.8 ) + home court (-3) = North Carolina -1.2
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS, 2-4 O/U): Berry was the MVP of the Maui Invitational after totaling 46 points in victories over Oklahoma State and Wisconsin to close out the eight-team tournament. Senior forward Kennedy Meeks also came up big in Hawaii, recording 15 points and 11.3 rebounds per game to make the all-tournament team, and is averaging a double-double in the first seven contests (13.7, 10.7). Junior swingman Justin Jackson (15.4 points) has also been quite productive while senior forward Isaiah Hicks (14.6) is shooting 66.2 percent from the field.
ABOUT INDIANA (4-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Coach Tom Crean told reporters the team would be patient with Blackmon’s injury: “This is not a situation where we don’t expect him back (for a long time). It’s not like that at all. We’ve just got to work through it.” Three other players are averaging in double figures, led by Johnson (13.8, 60.5 percent shooting) and sophomore center Thomas Bryant (13.6, 8.2 rebounds). Pittsburgh transfer Josh Newkirk may have to contribute more than his 7.2 points per game if Blackmon is out, but the junior guard has drained 7-of-11 from 3-point range.
TRENDS:
* Tar Heels are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.
* Hoosiers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.
* Under is 6-1 in Tar Heels last 7 games as a road favorite.
* Over is 5-1 in Hoosiers last 6 games as a home underdog.
* Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The road favorites North Carolina are picking up 54 percent of the early action. The under is getting 63 percent of the totals action.