Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 1/20/19
Florida State lost three of its last four games, losing last game at Pitt after losing at home to Duke when Williamson sat out 2nd half; Seminoles are 1-2 in true road games, with only win at Tulane. Boston College lost its last five games, is 0-4 in ACC, losing last two home games, by 27 to Virginia and a horrible OT loss to Hartford. FSU won seven of last eight games with BC; teams split last four meetings here. Last 2+ years, Seminoles are 0-6 vs spread as an ACC road favorite, 0-1 this year; BC is 5-2 in its last seven games as a home underdog.
Providence lost three of last four games; they’re 2-1 in true road games, losing at Georgetown in 2OT’s. Marquette won its last four games, with last two wins by 4-3 points. Providence won three of last four games with Marquette; last six series games were all decided by five or fewer points (underdogs 5-1 vs spread). Friars won last two visits to Milwaukee, by 1-2 points. Providence is 13-9 in its last 22 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year; Marquette is 9-7 in its last 16 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Check status of Marquette star Howard (back)
Illinois lost five of last six games, but waxed Minnesota by 27 last game; Illini are 0-3 in Big 14 road games, losing by 15-8-2 points- they’re turning ball over 21.3% of time in conference tilts. Iowa won its last four games, scoring 81.8 ppg; Hawkeyes are 12-0 vs teams ranked outside top 50. Big 14 opponents are shooting 56.1% inside arc vs Iowa. Iowa/Illinois split last eight meetings; teams split last four meetings here. Illini is 12-20-1 vs spread in last 33 games as a Big 14 road underdog; Hawkeyes are 8-3 in last 11 games as a home favorite.
Duquesne won its last three games by 5-1-6 points; Dukes are 9-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200- they’re 1-2 in true road games, with win at Richmond. George Washington split its first four A-14 games, losing both home games, by 6-20 points while scoring 61 ppg. GW is 2-9 vs teams ranked in top 200. Duquesne swept GW by 17-2 points LY, after losing previous five matchups; Dukes lost five of their last six visits to GW. Last 6+ years, Duquesne is 2-0 as a road favorite; Colonials covered eight of last ten games as a home underdog.
Drake is 2-3 in its first five MVC games, turning ball over 22.4% of time; Bulldogs are 5-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Missouri State is 2-3 in Valley games but won last two road tilts, at Indiana St/Bradley. MVC foes shot 45.2% on arc vs Bears in their first five Valley games. Drake won three of last four games with Missouri State; teams split last six series games played here. Underdogs are 5-0-2 vs spread in last seven series games. State is 10-5 in its last 15 games as a road underdog, 3-0 this year; Bulldogs are 6-7 in last 13 games as a home favorite.
Bradley lost its first five MVC games, losing road games by 5 at Indiana St, 11 at Valpo;; Braves are shooting 37.3% inside arc in Valley games, turning ball over 22.9% of time. SIU lost its last three games, dropping last two by 1-4 points. Salukis are turning ball over 24% of time in MVC games. Home side won 10 of last 11 Bradley-Southern Illinois games; Braves lost last five visits to Carbondale, by 11-11-12-20-17 points. Bradley is 6-13 in its last 19 games as a road underdog, 0-2 this year; SIU is 1-4 in its last five games as a road favorite (1-1 this year).
Colorado lost five of its last seven games, losing first two Pac-12 road games by 8 at Arizona, 22 at ASU. Buffaloes are 1-4 overall in true road games, with win at Air Force. Utah split its first four Pac-12 games; Utes are are turning ball over 21.9% of time in Pac-12, but have also made 40% of their 3-pointers. Utah won seven of last nine games with Colorado; Buffs lost their last six visits here, by 3-11-25-2-16-10 points. Last 4+ years, Colorado is 8-23 vs spread as a Pac-12 road underdog, 0-2 this year; last 5+ years, Utah is 27-10-2 as a home favorite.
Iona is 4-1 in MAAC games after going 2-9 in pre-conference; Monmouth is 4-2 in MAAC after a 1-12 pre-conference disaster. Gaels made 46.3% of their 3’s in last five games; they’re 1-6 in true road games. Hawks won their last three games, allowing average of 65.3 ppg. Iona is 8-5 vs Monmouth in MAAC games, 2-4 in last six games; Gaels made 17-31 on arc in first meeting, 103-84 at home Jan 3. Iona is 3-2 at Monmouth, winning by 18-16-3 points. Last three years, Iona is 15-9 as a MAAC road favorite; Hawks are 2-5 as a MAAC home underdog.
Denver lost six of its last seven games, losing two of three Summit home games; Summit foes are shooting 42.9% on arc against the Pioneers. Oral Roberts is 4-2 in Summit, but lost last two road games, by 25-19 points; Eagles are turning ball over 21.5% of time in league games. Denver won its last five games with Oral Roberts, which lost its last four visits here, by 7-3-4-16 points. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games. Denver is 7-5 in its last dozen games as a home favorite, 0-1 this year; ORU is 10-13 in last 23 games as a road underdog, 0-2 this year.
South Dakota lost five of its last seven games; three of their last four losses were by 6 or fewer points. Coyotes are 1-5 vs top 200 teams. Omaha won seven of its last eight games; they’re 4-1 in Summit games, making 44.3% of their 3-pointers in those games. South Dakota is 7-6 vs Omaha in Summit games, winning all three games LY, by 14-15-14 points; teams split last six series games played here. Coyotes are 7-9 in last 16 games as a Summit road underdog, 0-1 this year; Omaha is 7-5 in its last dozen games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year.
By David Schwab
This Sunday’s college basketball betting action gets an early start with a trio of matchups featuring a nationally ranked team. First on in the ACC, the No. 11 Florida State Seminoles and the Boston College Eagles clash in Chestnut Hill.
Shifting to the Big East, the Providence Friars will be on the road against the No. 15 Marquette Golden Eagles. A bit later in the afternoon, the Illinois Fighting Illini will square off against the No. 23 Iowa Hawkeyes in a Big Ten tilt at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
Opening Odds per BookMaker.eu
No. 11 Florida State at Boston College (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)
**A pending winter storm in the Boston area could impact this game**
Opening Odds: Florida State --6, Total 144 ½
Betting Matchup
It has been a rough start for Florida State in ACC play. Losses to Virginia on the road and Duke at home as an underdog in each game is understandable. However, Monday’s 75-62 road loss to Pittsburgh as 4 ½-point favorites dropped the Seminoles to 1-3 both straight-up and against the spread in the conference standings. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in all four of those games.
Boston College’s current SU slide reached five games with Wednesday’s 80-70 loss to Louisville as an 11-point road underdog. The Eagles have gone 3-2 ATS during this same span with the total going OVER in four of the five games. They are 9-7 SU overall with an 8-8 record ATS. Boston College has failed to cover in eight of its first 10 home games this season. One big positive is junior guard Ky Bowman with an average of 19.9 points per game while also leading the way in rebounds (8.3) and assists (3.6).
Betting Trends
-- The Seminoles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games and the total has stayed UNDER in 12 of their last 13 games on the road.
-- The Eagles have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss and the total has gone OVER in 23 of their last 32 home games.
-- The home team has covered the spread in the last five meetings with the total going OVER in the last four games between these conference foes.
Providence at No. 15 Marquette (CBS Sports Network, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: No Overnight Posted (Injury)
Betting Matchup
Providence snapped a three-game skid in Big East play (SU and ATS) with Tuesday’s 72-63 victory against Seton Hall as a slight 1 ½-point home favorite. The total stayed UNDER 142 points in that win and it has stayed UNDER in four of the Friars’ last six games. Junior guard Alpha Diallo has led the way in scoring this season with 17.2 PPG, but freshman guard David Duke led the way in Tuesday’s win with 18 points.
The Golden Eagles are off to a SU 15-3 start with an 11-7 record ATS. They started Big East play with a lopsided road loss to St. John’s as two-point road underdogs. However, with a big 74-71 road win against Georgetown on Tuesday as a 1 ½-point favorite, Marquette improved to 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) with the four-game winning streak. Star guard Markus Howard (24.4 PPG) left Tuesday’s contest with a stiff back and his status for Sunday is currently listed as questionable.
Betting Trends
-- The Friars have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road and the total has gone OVER in their last four road games against a team with a SU winning record.
-- The Golden Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games coming off a SU win with the total going OVER in five of their last seven Sunday games.
-- The favorite has covered the closing number in 13 of the last 18 meetings with the total going OVER in three of the last five matchups.
Illinois at No. 23 Iowa (Big Ten, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Iowa -9 (-105), Total 156 ½
Betting Matchup
Wednesday’s 95-68 romp over Minnesota as a one-point home underdog snapped a five-game losing streak. Illinois is 3-3 ATS during this six-game span with the total going OVER in its last two games. The Fighting Illini are 0-4 SU in four previous road games this season as part of a 5-12 record overall. They are scoring as many points (74.4) as they are giving up at the other end of the court (74.3).
Iowa raced past Penn State 89-82 on Wednesday closing as a 3 ½-point road underdog. This was its fourth win in a row both SU and ATS. The Hawkeyes lost their first three Big Ten games SU with a 1-2 mark ATS. The total went OVER 139 points in Wednesday’s win after staying UNDER in six of their previous eight contests. Sophomore Luka Garza led the way against the Lions with 22 points and 12 rebounds. Junior forward Tyler Cook is Iowa’s leading scorer this season with 17.1 PPG, but he remains questionable for Sunday with an ankle injury.
Betting Trends
-- The Fighting Illini have gone 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after covering the spread in their previous game. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in six of their last seven games on Sunday.
-- The Hawkeyes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after covering in their previous game with the total going OVER or ending as a PUSH in nine of their last 12 games.
-- The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in 11 of the last 14 meetings in Iowa.
20th Jan 2019
Kyle Hunter
A very short Sunday card today. Sunday is never a huge day for the college basketball slate, but it is even smaller than normal today with the NFL Conference Championships.
A nice 2-1 day on Saturday. Penn won outright as a 7.5 point underdog against Temple in a great bounce back game for the Quakers. The first half under cashed in the Wyoming/New Mexico contest. The lone loser was the Wofford 1H selection.
College basketball has been one of my best sports, and I hope to be able to help readers in betting college hoops. I’ll be doing a daily college basketball picks and predictions article for BangTheBook. College basketball is a unique sport with a bunch of teams and opportunities for under the radar betting value.
The articles will contain free picks, but I really hope that readers are able to learn a lot about the college basketball betting market through my analysis as well. My goal is to try to help you become better informed so you can improve in placing your own bets on this sport. My hope is that consistent readers of this daily article will feel much better informed about the college hoops market by the end of this season. These picks won’t match my premium picks, but I will be personally betting each of these selections.
We decided to track the results with a running tally throughout the season. For easiest tracking purposes, 1 unit will equal $100 in this article. A 2 unit play would be $200. A 3 unit play would be $300. I do still believe that using a percentage of bankroll is a great way to personally bet on games, and I recommend wagering between 2 and 3 percent on your typical selection. Juice will be accounted for in the tracking of the record.
I had a hard time finding much value on the Sunday card. I did find one play that will be a small one unit selection, and then I’ll take a look at a potential live betting opportunity.
Bradley at Southern Illinois (Southern Illinois -8, 122)
Bradley has been the most disappointing team in the Missouri Valley Conference so far this year. The Braves returned almost everyone from a 20-13 team last year, but they can’t seem to do anything right this season. Bradley played a weak non-conference schedule, and now they are 0-5 in the Missouri Valley Conference. They definitely expected better. Can they turn it around?
The second most disappointing team in the league is probably the Southern Illinois Salukis. Many had this team as the second or third best team in the league, but they have lost three straight games and sit at 2-3 in the MVC. There is a lot of time left in league play, but this time hasn’t been very good.
Bradley’s offensive numbers are bad this year, and inside the MVC, their numbers are absolutely awful. They are averaging a miserable 0.834 points per possession so far this year in MVC action. That’s about as bad as you’ll see, and it is a huge drop from the 1.021 points per possession they averaged in league play last year. I’m certainly not going to say that I think this Bradley team is good on offense, but their numbers look due for some positive regression on the offensive side.
Southern Illinois has allowed 65 points or more in three of their five MVC games. The Salukis actually rank last in defensive efficiency in the MVC so far this season. Bradley should get more open looks than they have been getting in recent games. The Salukis shoot it well from long range, and if they can get their turnover issues under control, their offense has potential.
This is clearly a low total for a reason, but at this number I see some value on the over. I can’t recommend a big play because both of these teams have gone through long scoring droughts many times this year, and the MVC is certainly a low scoring league on the whole. At the same time, a 65-58 game would be over the total here. We don’t need a good offensive game from the teams. We just need them to be mediocre.
Pick: Bradley/Southern Illinois over 122 (1 Unit Play)
Illinois at Iowa (Iowa -8, 156.5)
Illinois is coming off a contest where they absolutely dominated Minnesota 95-68 in their last game. They were a home underdog in that one, and that was quite the showing. Brad Underwood’s team is young, but they do have some talent.
Iowa has been a surprise so far this year. They have already won more games than they did a year ago. The Hawkeyes rank third in the nation in FTA/FGA, so they are getting to the line a bunch. That’s important here since Illinois commits about as many fouls as anyone in the country.
If these teams go through an early drought, I would consider taking the over live in this one. The full game number is a little too high for me, but there could be some value if the shooting numbers are low early in either half.
Consider a live over play depending on how the game plays out