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NCAAB Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Sunday 3/24/19

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shazman

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 3/24/19

Posted : March 23, 2019 8:58 pm

shazman

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Virginia was down 14 in first half Friday, cut it to 6 by half, won going away; Cavaliers won 10 of their last 11 games- they played four starters 36:00 Friday. Starting C Salt tweaked an ankle Friday, but says he’ll play here. Cavaliers won 10 of their last 11 games overall, are experience team #203 that plays slowest tempo in country. Cavaliers have #5 eFG% defense in country. Oklahoma is 5-8 in its last 13 games; they raced out to 12-0 lead vs Ole Miss Friday, jogged to an easy win. Sooners played nine guys 10:00+ Friday; they’re experience team #45. Oklahoma beat Notre Dame by 5 in December, its only ACC game this season. Last four years, #1-seeds are 6-9 vs spread in their 2nd round game.

Duke was only up 4 at half over North Dakota State Friday, then ran away in 2nd half; they used three guys 30:00+. Blue Devils covered four of their last five second round games. Duke is 13-1 outside ACC, with only loss to Gonzaga at Maui Classic. Blue Devils are shooting only 30.5% on arc; how will they attack 7-6 center Fall? UCF played three guys 35:00+ in surprisingly easy win over VCU Friday; Knights didn’t score for first 6:35, then made 10 shots in row after that. UCF is experience team #21 that plays slow (#309) tempo- they’ve won 11 of 13 games outside AAC. Knights are #20 experience team that has #13 defensive eFG%. UCF coach Dawkins played/coached at Duke.

Iowa fell behind Cincinnati 18-5 Friday, then scored 48 points in 2nd half of its 79-72 win. Hawkeyes are just 3-6 in their last nine games; they played three guys 32:00+ Friday, but made 11-22 on arc and shot 58% inside arc. Iowa is 12-0 outside Big 14, but against NC schedule #330. Iowa gets 22.6% of its points on foul line (#18). Tennessee is just 7-4 in its last 11 games after starting season 23-1; Vols are experience team #53 (#3 in MC); that shoots 55.7% inside arc- their eFG% is #21 on offense, #39 on defense. Tennessee was down a hoop to Colgate with 10:52 left Friday, won by 7. Red Raiders made made 15-29 on arc. Since 2011, #10-seeds who win their first round game are 9-1 vs spread in 2nd round.

North Carolina was down 38-33 at half to Iona Friday; is that a red flag? UNC won nine of its last ten games; they start three seniors and play #5 pace. Carolina played three starters 31:00+ in Friday’s win. Tar Heels split their last six 2nd round games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight. UNC is 2-0 vs Pac-12 teams this year, beating Stanford by 18, UCLA by 16. Washington is 5-3 in its last eight games after starting season 22-5; Huskies are experience team #43 (#1 in MC) that forces turnovers 24.3% of time- they spanked Utah State Friday, forcing 21 turnovers (+6) and making 10-17 on arc- they played three guys 30:00+. Last four years, #1-seeds are 6-9 vs spread in their 2nd round game.

Texas Tech won 10 of its last 11 games; Red Raiders are #105 experience team that forces turnovers 23% of time, and has #2 defensive eFG% in country. Tech played four starters 31:00+ in Friday’s 72-57 win over Northern Kentucky- they led by 4 at half. Red Raiders are 13-1 outside Big X, but vs NC schedule #320. Buffalo whacked their old coach when they beat Arizona State by 17 Friday; Bulls scored 1.23 ppp vs ASU- they won their last 13 games, are 13-1 outside MAC (#116 NC sked), with only loss to Marquette. Bulls won in OT at West Virginia in their only Big X game. Buffalo is experience team #14 that is 6-1 vs top 100 teams this season. Since 2010, when #3-6 seeds play in second round, teams are both 6-6 vs spread.

Ohio State lost seven of its last 11 games; they’re experience team #252 that started season 12-1, mainly because they played #245 non-conference schedule. Buckeyes played two guys 39/40:00 in Friday’s 62-59 win over Iowa State. OSU opened season with win over Cincinnati of AAC. Houston is 32-3 after losing AAC title game last week; Cougars are experience team #145 that has best defensive eFG% in country. Houston waxed Georgia St by 29 Friday; only one of their guys played more than 28:00. Cougars are experience team #145 ; they’re 12-3 vs top 100 teams this season. Of last 11 #11-seeds who won first round game, six of them covered in 2nd round- only team that didn’t cover was favored.

This will be 13th 2nd round game with 13-seed vs 12-seed. Favorite was 9-3 vs spread in first 12. Cal-Irvine won its last 16 games; they’re experience team #44 that plays pace #296- they start three juniors, two seniors. Anteaters are 3-3 vs top 100 teams; Friday was their first-ever NCAA tourney win. Irvine played eight guys 11:00+ Friday; no one played more than 31:00. Oregon won its last nine games after being 15-12 at one point this season; they held five of their last six opponents under 55 points. Oregon’s defensive eFG% is #21 in country; they held eight of last nine opponents to 61 or fewer points. Ducks are #304 experience team whose best player hasn’t played since Dec 12.

Last five years, when a #4-seed plays a #12-seed in this round, favorite is 5-1 vs spread. Virginia Tech’s star PG Robinson played 28:00 in Friday’s win over Saint Louis; he looked gimpy at end of game. Hokies are 8-5 in last 13 games after starting season 16-3; they’re shooting 39.4% on arc this season (#9). Tech played two guys 36:00 in Friday’s win; they forced 18 turnovers and outscored VCU 22-10 on foul line. Liberty beat UCLA by 15, Georgia State by 26; they lost by 10 at Georgetown. Flames won 19 of their last 21 games; they’re experience team #122 (#30 in MC) that makes 56.7% of its 2’s, has #12 eFG% in country. Liberty made 12-25 on arc in its upset of Miss State Friday, playing three guys 33:00+; they also made 12-25 on arc.
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Posted : March 23, 2019 9:06 pm

shazman

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Sunday - Session 1
By David Schwab

South Region (Columbus, OH)
No. 10 Iowa vs. No. 2 Tennessee (CBS, 12:10 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Tennessee -8, 156

Betting Matchup

Iowa drew the No. 10 seed in the South Region after dropping its last four regular season games both straight-up and against the spread. The Hawkeyes lost to Michigan 74-53 as eight-point underdogs in their second game of the recent Big Ten Tournament. In a tough opening round matchup against a hot Cincinnati team, Iowa pulled off a stunning 79-72 upset as a 4 ½-point underdog. This was just the second time in the Hawkeyes’ last 11 games that they were able to cover the closing number. The total has gone OVER in five of their last eight games.

Facing an 18-5 deficit early in Friday’s game, credit veteran head coach Fran McCaffery for keeping his team focused on the task at hand. You can also credit forward Luka Garza and guard Joe Wieskamp for the upset after combining for 39 points.

The second seed in the South had its hands full in Friday’s opener against the Patriot League’s Colgate Red Raiders in a 77-70 victory as heavy 17 ½-point favorites. After losing to Auburn 84-64 in the SEC Tournament’s title game as a five-point favorite, Tennessee is 4-8 ATS over its last 12 games. The total went OVER 146 ½ points in Friday’s win and it has gone OVER in its last five contests. The Volunteers are 1-3 ATS in their last four games closing as favorites.

Forward Grant Williams has been Tennessee’s leading scorer all season long with 18.7 points per game, but guard Admiral Schofield led the way against Colgate with 19 points. Williams ended that game with just nine points and Schofield is the team’s second-leading scorer with 16.3 PPG.

Betting Trends

-- The Hawkeyes are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral-site games and the total has stayed UNDER in their last five games against a SEC team.

-- The Volunteers have gone 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games against the Big Ten with the total going OVER in their last four games played at a neutral site.

-- The last time these two teams met was in the 2014 NCAA Tournament with Tennessee winning 78-65 as a two-point underdog. The total stayed UNDER 143 ½ points.

Midwest Region (Columbus, OH)
No. 9 Washington vs. No. 1 North Carolina (CBS, 2:40 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: North Carolina -11 ½, 146

Betting Matchup

Washington had been the class of the Pac-12 during the regular season at 15-3 SU in the standings, but a run to the tournament title was cut short in a 68-48 loss to Oregon as a two-point underdog in the conference championship game. Heading into this tournament, the Huskies had failed to cover in six of their previous seven games, but they beat up on Utah State 78-61 on Friday closing as 3 ½-point underdogs. Washington improved to 4-2 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.

The Huskies have a trio of players that averaged at least 12 points a game during the regular season led by guard Jaylen Nowell with 16.3 points. He put up 19 points on Friday while shooting 57.1 percent from the field. Noah Dickerson (12.4 PPG) led the way with 20 points.

Following a sluggish start, the Tar Heels looked sharp in the second half of their tournament opener as the top seed in the Midwest Region. They beat Iona 88-73, but came nowhere close to covering the hefty 24 ½-point closing spread. This was the first time North Carolina failed to cover in its last five games and it has now won nine of its last 10 games SU. The only loss was against the Duke Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament. The total has stayed UNDER in four of its last five contests.

North Carolina did outscore Iona by 20 points in the second half after falling behind 38-33 in the first 20 minutes of play. Cameron Johnson scored 23 points in that recent loss to Duke and he added 21 more points on Friday while shooting 53.8 percent from the field. The senior guard led the Tar Heels in scoring all year long with an average of 17.1 PPG.

Betting Trends

-- The Huskies have an 8-3 record ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games and the total has gone OVER in five of their last six games against the ACC.

-- The Tar Heels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games in the NCAA Tournament with the total staying UNDER in 13 of their last 16 games played on Sunday.

-- In one previous meeting back in the 2011 NCAA Tournament, North Carolina beat Washington 86-83 as a four-point favorite with the total going OVER 159 points.

Posted : March 24, 2019 7:46 am

shazman

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Sunday - Session 2
By Kevin Rogers

East Region (Columbia, SC)
No. 9 UCF vs. No. 1 Duke (CBS, 5:15 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Duke -13, 143 ½

Three top seeds take the court on Sunday, highlighted by the Blue Devils (30-5 SU, 18-16-1 ATS), who have won all four games since freshman star Zion Williamson returned to the lineup. Duke lost three games down the stretch without Williamson, including two defeats to rival North Carolina, but the Blue Devils have won three times by double-digits, capped off by Friday’s 85-62 blowout of 16th-seed North Dakota State.

Duke failed to cash as 27-point favorites, as the Blue Devils led the Bison at halftime, 31-27. The Blue Devils blew it open in the second half by outscoring the Summit League champions, 54-35, while Williamson paced Duke with 25 points on 12-of-16 shooting from the floor. R.J. Barrett led the Blue Devils with 26 points as Duke won by at least 20 points in the opening round of the NCAA tournament for the fourth time in five seasons.

UCF (24-8 SU, 19-12-1 ATS) put together a poor showing in the AAC tournament by losing 77-59 to Memphis, but the Knights bounced back nicely in Friday’s 73-58 blowout of VCU. Not only did the Knights to pick up their first ever NCAA tournament win, but they built a 10-point halftime lead over the Atlantic 10 regular season champions, while limiting VCU to 31% shooting from the floor.

Duke reached the Elite Eight last season, but was bounced by South Carolina in the second round two seasons ago. The Blue Devils are currently on a 14-4 UNDER run, but have covered only three times in the 12 games. UCF is riding a 9-2 ATS hot stretch, which includes victories over Cincinnati and Houston. The Knights have covered in three of their last four opportunities in the underdog role, as UCF hooks up with Duke for the first time ever.

West Region (Tulsa, OK)
No. 6 Buffalo vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (TNT, 6:10 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Texas Tech -4, 146

One of the more intriguing matchups in the round of 32 involves a pair of teams that combined for 59 wins this season. Buffalo (32-3 SU, 19-14-1 ATS) made quick work of Arizona State in Friday’s first round blowout, 91-74 as five-point favorites, marking the second straight season that the Bulls have eliminated a Pac-12 team in the Big Dance. The Bulls extended their winning streak to 13 games, while grabbing their third cover in four contests since an 0-4 ATS skid to end the regular season.

Texas Tech (27-6 SU, 16-16-1 ATS) was one-and-done in the Big 12 tournament after getting stunned by last-place West Virginia as 13-point favorites, 79-74 last week. The Red Raiders rebounded with a 72-57 triumph over Horizon League champion Northern Kentucky to barely cash as 13-point favorites on Friday. Jarrett Culver led the Red Raiders with 29 points, while Tech shot 52% from the field to pick up their ninth cover in the past 12 games.

The Red Raiders reached the Sweet 16 last season before getting knocked out by eventual champion Villanova, while Buffalo was drubbed by Kentucky, 95-75 in the second round in 2018. The Bulls weren’t listed as an underdog during Mid-American Conference play, while beating Syracuse and West Virginia as a ‘dog in non-conference play.

Texas Tech has covered eight consecutive games as a single-digit favorite dating back to January 28, while compiling a 9-2 ATS mark the last 11 contests since getting blown out at Kansas in early February. The last MAC team to reach the Sweet 16 was Ohio in 2012, who beat Michigan and USF before losing to North Carolina in overtime.

East Region (San Jose, CA)
No. 12 Liberty vs. No. 4 Virginia Tech (TBS, 7:10 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Virginia Tech -8 ½, 124 ½

With all the focus on Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia, the one ACC team that refuses to be overlooked is Virginia Tech. The Hokies (25-8 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) held off Saint Louis in Friday’s first round, 66-52 as 10-point favorites. Virginia Tech jumped out to a commanding 40-18 halftime lead before the Billikens made it interesting in the second half. Nickeil Alexander-Walker led the Hokies with 20 points as Virginia Tech snapped an 0-3 ATS skid as a double-digit favorite.

Liberty (29-6 SU, 18-14 ATS) erased a 10-point second half deficit to stun Mississippi State on Friday, 80-76 as seven-point underdogs. It was the second consecutive game that the Flames needed to win to keep their season alive after downing Lipscomb in the Atlantic Sun championship as a six-point underdog. Caleb Homesley led the Flames with 30 points against the Bulldogs, while Liberty drained 12 three-pointers to record their sixth victory this season in the underdog role.

The Hokies have taken care of their business as a substantial favorite of late by cashing in four of the last six opportunities as seven-point chalk or higher. Virginia Tech advanced past the first round under Buzz Williams for the first time since he became head coach after losing to Wisconsin in 2017 and Alabama in 2018.

Liberty finally broke through for an NCAA tournament win for the first time in school history after losing in their first three appearances. The Flames last faced the Hokies in 2014 as Virginia Tech escaped with a 73-63 victory in Blacksburg.

Posted : March 24, 2019 7:48 am

shazman

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Sunday - Session 3
By Tony Mejia

South Region - Columbia, SC - Colonial Life Arena
#9 Oklahoma vs. #1 Virginia - 7:45 PM EST - CBS

Opening Odds: Virginia -11, 127

-- Virginia (30-3 SU, 18-15 ATS) gave its fan base a horrible case of deja vu before getting it together to pull off a 71-56 victory over Gardner-Webb. The Cavaliers, in their first NCAA Tournament sice gaining national notoriety by becoming the first No. 1 seed to ever lose to a 16, put themselves in danger of a repeat performance with an awful start that saw them behind 26-14 at one point and down 36-30 at halftime.

-- Virginia didn't cover, but considering the burden it had to overcome after being haunted all offseason by the disaster vs. UMBC, it is likely to feel more comfortable looking to get to a Sweet 16 against a fellow high-major. ACC Defensive Player of the Year De'Andre Hunter, who was out for the 2018 NCAA Tournament and is the team's top pro prospect, delivered 23 points and six rebounds. X-factor Mamadi Diakite came off the bench and finished with 17 points on 8-for-10 shooting, adding a team-high nine rebounds.

-- Oklahoma (20-13 SU, 20-10-3 ATS) overcame losing Trae Young to the pros with a collective approach and started fast, opening 11-1 with victories over a number of fellow big boys, Florida, USC and Creighton chief among them. The Sooners struggled in Big 12 play and were 2-6 between Jan. 28 and the beginning of March before closing with a big win over Kansas that secured their at-large bid in a year where there was a soft bubble.

-- Oklahoma destroyed Ole Miss 95-71 in the Round of 32, putting together the highest-scoring game of the tournament thus far. The Sooners shot over 57 percent from the field and had four players score at least 18 points. Rashard Odomes led the way, scoring 20 points in 21 minutes.

-- Christian James is averaging 14.6 points and 6.2 rebounds to lead the way for the Sooners and also scored 20 against Ole Miss. Kristian Doolittle averaged 11.4 points and 7.2 rebounds and came up with 19 points and team-highs of 15 rebounds and five assists.

-- Oklahoma is 0-9 when scoring fewer than 63 points and 20-4 when scoring at least 63, but Virginia leads the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 55.1 points per game. Opponents shoot just 27.5 percent from 3-point range against the Cavaliers, the second-best defensive clip in the country. The Cavaliers are 28-0 when holding opponents to 44 percent or worse from the field, and 2-3 when opponents shoot better than that. The Sooners are 13-0 when they score at least 75 points and are 7-13 when falling short of that number, but Virginia has only allowed 70 or more points on three occasions.

-- The Virginia offense has recorded a turnover on only 15.1 percent of its possessions, the 14th-lowest rate in the country. They employ the slowest pace in all of college basketball but shoot over 40 percent from 3-point range, ranking fourth nationally.

-- Oklahoma has won 20 games under Lon Kruger's watch for the fifth time in his eight seasons but just the first time since reaching the Final Four in 2016. He also reached a Final Four with Florida and has led three other teams into the NCAAs (K-State, Illinois, UNLV). Tony Bennett is in his seventh NCAA Tournament with Virginia but has reached the Sweet 16 just three times. He got there once with Washington State.

-- The Sooners and Cavaliers were on opposite sides of the bracket in the Battle 4 Atlantis down in the Bahamas around Thanksgiving but didn't play one another. Bennett remembers being impressed with Oklahoma's collective size. The Sooners have gone 2-3 against No. 1 seeds in their history and are 1-2 against Virginia, last playing in Hawai'i back in 2010. While Bennett was in place, Jeff Capel coached the Sooners.

-- The 'over' is on a 4-1 run in Virginia games and only fell short last time out against Gardner-Webb by a single point.

-- Virginia entered the NCAA Tournament with 6/1 odds to win it all, per the Westgate Superbook. The Cavaliers' odds were even with UNC for third-best behind Duke (9/4) and Gonzaga (9/2). Oklahoma was slotted at 500-to-1.

Midwest Region - Tulsa, OK - BOK Center
#12 Ohio State vs. #4 Houston - 8:40 PM EST - TNT

Opening Odds: Houston -5.5, 132.5

-- While Houston (32-3 SU, 21-12-2 ATS) fell in the AAC Championship game against Cincinnati, it never game Georgia State an inkling of hope on Friday night, posting a dominant 84-55 win over the 14th-seeded Sun Belt champs.

-- Ohio State (20-14 SU, 15-19 ATS) pulled off an upset over Iowa State, escaping 62-59 when the Cyclones missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer. The game was there to be had for both teams down the stretch but ultimately swung as Kaleb Wesson made big plays as the driving force with a 21-point, 12-rebound night. Wake Forest grad transfer Keyshawn Woods scored 19 and played all 40 minutes. This is the lowest they've ever been seeded at the NCAAs.

-- The Buckeyes got Wesson back from suspension for the Big Ten Tournament and immediately sealed their at-large bid by holding off Indiana 79-75 after nearly blowing a huge lead over the final minutes. They lost to Michigan State again, but had slid into the field as one of the last few teams deemed worthy of an at-large bid. Ohio State went 0-3 without Wesson, getting outscored by a combined margin of 59 points in losing to Purdue, Northwestern and Wisconsin.

-- The Cougars have never defeated Ohio State but would reach their first Sweet 16 since 1984 with a victory here. The Hakeem Olajuwon-led version is getting some company an can re-write the school-record for wins with their 33rd if they survive the Buckeyes.

-- Houston's calling card is a defense that ranks seventh nationally in points per game allowed (61.1) in addition to the lowest field-goal percentage defense (.365) and top 3-point percentage defense in the country (.275).

-- Offensively, the Cougars are led by point guard Galen Robinson, who will set a school-record with his 135th career game. He's scoring just 7.8 points and isn't a great shooter but leads the team in assists (4.9) and is one of those old-school point guards who controls pace at both ends. Corey Davis, Jr. is the top scorer (16.9 ppg), but junior Armani Brooks (13.3 ppg) isn't far behind and can similarly light teams up from the perimeter.

-- Forward Fabian White and center Breaon Brady, who each averaged 6.3 points per game, combined to shoot 11-for-15 and delivered 27 points and 19 rebounds in the rout of Georgia State. They'll be tasked with stopping the Wesson boys in a game where what happens in the post will dicate an awful lot.

-- Ohio State is 11-0 when it holds an opponent to 61 points or fewer, but ended a stretch of a seven straight games allowing 68 or more with its 62-59 upset of Iowa State.

-- Houston was 40/1 to win the NCAA Tournament per Westgate when the tournament began, while Ohio State came in at 1,000/1.

-- The 'under' is on a 4-0 run in Houston games, part of a 9-3 stretch over the last 12. The 'over' is 6-2 through the Buckeyes' last eight contests.

South Region - San Jose, CA - SAP Center
#13 UC Irvine vs. #12 Oregon - 9:40 PM EST - TBS

Opening Odds: Oregon -4.5, 124.5

-- Facing must-win situations has become the norm for Oregon (24-12 SU, 21-15 ATS) for weeks since they went into February's final day 15-12, on a three-game losing streak and destined for the NIT. The Ducks haven't lost since, bringing a nine-game winning streak into the only Round of 32 matchup featuring two double-digit seeds as the favorite in the matchup.

-- UC-Irvine (20-13 SU, 21-14 ATS) has won 17 consecutive games, the nation's longest winning streak, last dropping a game on Jan. 16. The Anteaters defeated Kansas State in the Round of 64, hitting nine 3-pointers and getting 19 points apiece from guards Evan Leonard and Max Hazzard. Leonard added team-highs of six boards, four assists and four steals while draining five 3-pointers. The junior has repeated as the team's leading scorer this season and is shooting a team-high 41 percent from 3-point range.

-- Both teams are on fantastic cover streaks and cashed as underdogs on Friday. The Ducks have covered in all nine of their wins on their current winning streak. The Anteaters have delivered in 12 of 15 games and have won their last 12 by six or more points.

UC-Irvine's 70-64 win over K-State featured a strong second-half effort where it held up down the stretch, while Oregon steamrolled Wisconsin 72-54. The Badgers shot 6-for-30 from 3-point range. While the Ducks' defense was good, it wasn't 20 percent from beyond the arc good. The Badgers had open looks but couldn't find the range.

-- Since losing top freshman Bol Bol (21.0 ppg, 9.6 rpg) to a foot injury, the Ducks are now 18-9, but were exactly .500 before this win streak began and really struggled with their identity as guys were asked to take on new roles. Payton Pritchard has stepped up as the leader and floor general, scoring in double-digits in nine of 10 and averaging 16.3 points and 5.5 assists during that span.

-- Freshman Louis King, who like Bol was a five-star recruit, has really blossomed since the calendar hit 2019, emerging as a versatile go-to threat in averaging 15 points and six rebounds while shooting 38 percent from beyond the arc. At 6-foot-9, he can really pose issues with his ability to face up and hit all three of his 3-point attempts against Wisconsin, scoring 17 points. He's shot 7-for-12 on 3s over the last three games.

-- The Ducks really clamped down defensively to salvage their season and have allowed 54 or fewer points in seven of the nine games on their current run. They own the sixth-best 3-point percentage in the country, surrendering 29.1 percent shooting, so we'll see whether Leonard and Hazzard can find the range against the toughest defensive group they've seen this season for the second straight contest after having conquered K-State.

-- Dana Altman reached the Final Four with the Ducks in 2017 and is making his 14 NCAA Tournament appearance, making it in with Kansas State and Creighton in previous stops. He's only lost one of nine NCAA games where his team is the favorite in terms of seeding. Russ Turner will be coaching his third NCAA Tournament game, coming in 1-1 (2-0 ATS) after barely falling to Louisville in 2015. Altman is 3-0 against Turner-led UC-Irvine, with all three meetings coming at Oregon.

-- Oregon came in at 200/1 to win the NCAA Tournament per Westgate when the tournament began, while UC-Irvine was 1,000-to-1.

-- Oregon is giving up 62.7 points per game, good for 16th in the country, while UC-Irvine allowed only 63.3 points, which is 19th-best. The 'under' is on a 12-3 run in Oregon games but the 'over' has actually prevailed in five of six involving the Anteaters.

Posted : March 24, 2019 7:51 am

shazman

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Today's biggest bets and line moves: Bettors hammer Houston odds vs. Ohio State
Patrick Everson

No. 3 seed Houston posted a 29-point blowout of Georgia State on Friday, catching the attention of bettors. The Cougars opened -5.5 for Sunday's game against Ohio State and were bet up to -6.

A 48-game college basketball joyride that started Thursday wraps up Sunday, with eight games that will set the rest of the March Madness Sweet Sixteen field. Covers checks in on the action and odds movement for several of those contests, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.

No. 11 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3 Houston Cougars – Open: -5.5; Move: -6

Ohio State barely nabbed an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament, but took advantage of it and now has a spot in this 8:40 p.m. ET matchup. In Friday’s Midwest Region opener, the Buckeyes (20-14 SU, 15-19 ATS) took out No. 6 seed Iowa State 62-59 as 5-point underdogs.

Houston dropped just three games all season and looked the part in its opener Friday. The Cougars (32-3 SU, 22-12-1 ATS) hammered No. 14 seed Georgia State 84-55 as 12.5-point favorites.

“Ohio State-Houston is our biggest decision so far,” Shelton said. “Seven times more money and five times more tickets on Houston. All public play on that. The public drove the line to 6.”

No. 6 Buffalo Bulls vs. No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders – Open: -3; Move: -3.5

Buffalo is on a 13-game win streak entering this 6:10 p.m. ET meeting in the West Region. The Bulls (32-3 SU, 19-14-1 ATS) dunked No. 11 seed Arizona State 91-74 laying 5 points Friday.

Texas Tech had a surprisingly strong season in the Big 12 and carried that momentum into the Big Dance. On Friday, the Red Raiders (27-6 SU, 16-16-1 ATS) beat No. 14 seed Northern Kentucky 72-57 giving 13 points.

“Texas Tech was a close second in liability, behind Houston,” Shelton said. “But Buffalo is starting to see some love, coming back a little bit. Money was 3/1 on Texas Tech, now it’s 2.5/1, and the ticket count is actually pretty close. We’re a small five-figure loser to Texas Tech.”
No. 13 UC Irvine Anteaters vs. No. 12 Oregon Ducks – Open: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5

Two teams that, by seeding at least, aren’t supposed to be in this 9:40 p.m. ET second-round tilt are indeed in it. UC Irvine has won 17 in a row, going a stout 12-4-1 ATS in that stretch. The Anteaters (31-5 SU, 21-13-1 ATS) stunned No. 4 seed Kansas State 70-64 getting 3.5 points in a Friday South Region tilt.

Oregon is rolling on the floor and against the oddsmakers, winning and covering nine in a row. The Ducks (24-12 SU, 21-15 ATS) were knotted at 25 with No. 5 seed Wisconsin at halftime Friday, then scored 47 second-half points en route to a 72-54 rout catching 2 points.

“That one is actually pretty good two-way action,” Shelton said of pointspread play. “Ticket count is skewed toward Oregon. The public is on Oregon, sharps on UCI.”

No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers – Open: -11; Move: None

Virginia was dealt arguably the most shocking loss in NCAA Tournament history last year, when as a No. 1 seed, it bowed out to No. 16 seed Maryland-Baltimore County. This time around, the Cavaliers (30-3 SU, 23-10 ATS) trailed No. 16 Gardner-Webb 36-30 at recess, but put the clamps down in the second half to notch a 71-56 victory as 22.5-point favorites Friday.

Oklahoma advanced to this 7:45 p.m. ET South Region matchup in very convincing fashion Friday. The Sooners (20-13 SU, 20-10-3 ATS) jumped out to a 50-33 halftime lead over No. 8 seed Mississippi and coasted to a 95-72 victory in a pick ‘em game.

“The money is incredibly close, within a thousand dollars,” Shelton said. “Right now, great two-way action on the spread and even on the moneyline.”

No. 10 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers – Open: -8; Move: None

Tennessee bounced back from a blowout loss to Auburn in the Southeastern Conference final, though not without a challenge to open South Region play. The Volunteers (30-5 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) built a 12-point halftime lead against Colgate, gave 10 of those points back in the second half, but ultimately got the 77-70 win laying 17.5 points Friday.

Iowa barely found its way into the NCAA Tourney after going 1-5 SU and ATS in its previous six games, but righted the ship Friday. The Hawkeyes (23-11 SU, 14-20 ATS) were 4.5-point pups against No. 7 seed Cincinnati and snagged a 79-72 victory.

“Money is 2/1 in favor of Tennessee, ticket count is approaching 2/1 on Tennessee,” Shelton said of this 12:10 p.m. ET tip, the first game of the day. “It’s a mid-five-figure decision, but not a big sweat.”
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Posted : March 24, 2019 8:24 am

shazman

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Sunday's odds and best bets for South Region Round 2
Rohit Ponnaiya

It definitely feels like March Madness with favorites going 0-6 against the spread in the South Region in Friday's NCAA Tournament action. We bring you the odds, predictions and best bets for Round 2 on Sunday as Iowa plays Tennessee, Oklahoma takes on Virginia and a pair of West Coast Cinderella teams battle it out in California.

(10) Iowa Hawkeyes vs (2) Tennessee Volunteers

Odds: TENN -8, 155.5
Start Time: 12:10 p.m, ET, Columbus, OH

Iowa surprised many as their offense overpowered Cincinnati in Ohio, enroute to a 79-72 win. A matter of fact Big Ten teams went 7-1 straight up in the first round of the NCAA tournament.

The Hawkeyes have terrific size led by big men Luke Garza and Tyler Cook down low, while perimeter players Jordan Bohannon, Jon Wieskamp, Isaiah Moss and Nicholas Baer space the floor with their outside shooting. The latter four players combine for 6.6 made 3-pointers per game at a conversion rate of 40.1 percent.

Tennessee owns one of the top offenses in the country, averaging 81.5 points per game but they also have a defense prone to lapses. They allow an average of 8.3 made 3-pointers per game on 35 percent shooting, with both of these marks outside of the top-200 teams in the country. Colgate scorched them from deep on Friday, converting on 15 of 29 shots from long range.

With Iowa averaging 78.3 ppg on the season and Tennessee giving up an average of 78.4 ppg over their last five games, back Iowa on their full game total Over 73.5.

(9) Oklahoma Sooners vs (1) Virginia Cavaliers

Odds: UVA -11, 127.5
Start Time: After the conclusion of UCF vs Duke scheduled for 5:15 p.m. ET, Columbia, SC

Speaking of teams with surprising offensive performances on Friday, the Sooners exploded for a season-high 95 points against Ole Miss. They are going to have a much harder - if not impossible - time pulling that off against Virginia and their top-ranked defense which allows just 55.1 ppg and 38.1 percent shooting from the field.

In the game against Gardner-Webb, it was apparent that UVA just played out of sync and didn't take the game seriously until the second half where they outscored the Runnin' Bulldogs by 21.

Virginia had an average scoring margin of +16.7 on the season, and in 20 of their 30 wins won by a point differential of 12 or more. And Oklahoma's shooters have come up cold against top defenses scoring an average of just 58.3 ppg in six games against Kansas State, Texas Tech, Florida and Wisconsin.

The key to beating UVA's famed Pack-Line defense is having ball-handlers that can create off the dribble and outside shooters that hit three-balls with a man rushing them and a hand in the face. The Sooners haven't proven that they can do either consistently.

A telling trend is how Virginia responds to a poor performance and how Oklahoma has followed up on victories. UVA is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after an ATS loss, while Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS in their last five games after a straight up or ATS win. Take Virginia to win and cover the spread Sunday.

(13) UC Irvine Anteaters vs (12) Oregon Ducks

Odds: ORE -4.5, 124.5
Start Time: After the conclusion of Liberty vs Virginia Tech scheduled for 7:10 p.m ET, San Jose, CA

Two of the biggest underdog winners from Round 1 clash in San Jose on Sunday night with the Oregon Ducks 5.5-point favorites against UC Irvine.

The Anteaters are red-hot, having won 17 games in a row. They can defend and rebound as well as anyone, holding opponents to just 38.2 percent shooting (the fifth-best mark in the country) with a rebounding rate of 54.7 percent (11th best). UC Irvine also has excellent depth with nine players logging more than 16 minutes per game.

Oregon holds opponents to just 62.7 ppg on 39.9 percent shooting, including just 29.1 percent shooting from beyond the arc. The Ducks started conference play off poorly but seem to have turned things around with nine consecutive wins ever since they went to a starting lineup featuring guard Payton Pritchard surrounded by four long forwards (all 6-foot-9 or taller) who can stretch the floor and contest shots.

In the second half of their First round game against Wisconsin they absolutely took over, scoring 47 points which is tied for their highest scoring half of the season. And they did it against a Wisconsin defense that was ranked among the best in the country.

However, the Ducks have recently struggled to seperate themselves from opponents during the first half of games; going into halftime against Wisconsin with the score tied, having a slim two point lead versus Washington in the Pac-12 title game and being down six points at half to Utah last Friday.

Back UC Irvine to keep it close early and take them on the first half spread of -3.
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Posted : March 24, 2019 8:25 am

shazman

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Sunday's odds and best bets for Midwest Region Round 2
Andrew Caley

Can Washington's 2-3 zone stop the high-octane offense of North Carolina in their Second Round matchup?

The final two spots in the Sweet 16 from the Midwest Region are up for grabs in Sunday’s March Madness action. Will Washington’s defense be able to stop North Carolina’s high-octane offense, while two defense teams do battle when Houston takes on Ohio State. We break down the odds and totals for all three games while giving predictions and best bets.

(9) WASHINGTON HUSKIES vs (1) NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS

Odds:
Start Time: 2:40 p.m. ET, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio

There are two big questions heading into this matchup are which Washington team will show up and will the Huskies’ defense be able to contain North Carolina’s high-octane offense.

Washington stumbled down the stretch but looked more like the team that won 15-of-16 at one point this season in its 78-61 opening round win over Utah State. The Huskies limited the Aggies to 35 percent shooting from the floor and forced 21 turnovers. But will they be able to keep that up against the juggernaut that is the North Carolina offense?

The Tar Heels rank third in the country in points per game at 86.1 per contest and are one of the fastest paced teams in Division I at nearly 78 possessions per game. The Tar Heels are led by Senior guard Cameron Johnson, who led the ACC and is fifth in the nation in 3-point percentage (46.5) and freshman guard Coby White. North Carolina overcame a sluggish start and dominated the second half in Friday’s 88-73 win over 16th-seeded Iona.

The only really comparable team Washington went up against this season was Gonzaga, which they put up a good fight losing 81-79. The Huskies deploy a 2-3 zone, which is comparable to that of Syracuse, which the Tar Heels were able to drop 93 points on. The key to that was North Carolina being able to beat the zone down the court and never let them get set. The strategy will be similar here. But what makes UNC so dangerous is that they still have the playmakers to attack the zone in the half court.

And while Washington ranks a formidable 19th in the KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency, eight ACC teams have similar or better ratings in that field. The Tar Heels played those teams 11 times scoring 79.9 points per game. Take the Over on their team total of 79.5.

One more thing. North Carolina is the third highest scoring second half team in the nation and their +5.2 second half road margin ranked eighth. Washington has a -4.5 second half margin on the road this season. That ranked 274th. Let’s put a play on North Carolina -4.5 on the second half spread as well.

(11) OHIO STATE BUCKEYES vs (3) HOUSTON COUGARS

Odds: HOU -5.5, 132
Start Time: 8:40 p.m. ET, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, Ohio

The third-seeded Cougars seek their first trip to the Sweet 16 since 1984 when they meet 11th seed Ohio State.

Houston got here on the back of its defense. It allows just 61.1 points per game (seventh best in the country) and there is no one better at getting a hand in your face than the Cougars. They limit opponents to 36.5 percent shooting from the field and a staggeringly low 27.5 percent from 3-point range.

Houston rode that defense to an 84-55 thrashing of Georgia State on Friday in the first round as senior guard Corey Davis Jr. poured in 26 points. The Cougars suffocated the Panthers, limiting them to 30 percent from the floor and 26.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Ohio State also prides itself on its defense, ranking 21st in the KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency metric and used it to upset sixth-seeded Iowa State 62-59 in Friday’s first round. Sophomore forward Kaleb Wesson led the way with 21 points and 12 rebounds, giving him three double-doubles in his last four games.

But even in that slog of a game, the Buckeyes were only able to score 63 points on 39.7 percent shooting (25 percent from 3-point range) and that was against an Iowa State team that was good but not great on the defensive end. But that should come to no surprise to anyone who has followed the Buckeyes. Since the start of Big Ten play (21 games) Ohio State has averaged just 64.1 points per game. The slow pace and the stout defense in this game should keep the Buckeyes Under their team total of 63.5.

Additionally, Houston is known for getting off to good starts. It’s +7.5 first half margin away from home was fourth best in the country. While Ohio State had a -0.8 mark in that category. Take the Cougars -3 on the first half spread.
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Posted : March 24, 2019 8:28 am

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Sunday's odds and best bets for East Region Round 2
Jason Logan

The opening week of the NCAA Tournament comes to a close in the East Region with a pair of games Sunday. Jason Logan breaks down the March Madness odds for Central Florida-Duke and Liberty-Virginia Tech and gives his best bets and predictions.

NO. 9 CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS VS NO. 1 DUKE BLUE DEVILS

Odds: Duke -13, 143 at FanDuel Sportsbooks
Start Time: 5:15 p.m. ET, Colonial Life Arena, Columbia, South Carolina

If there’s one thing Duke doesn’t do well is shooting from outside. The Blue Devils rely on triples for just 26.2 percent of their total offensive output, which has something to do with them shooting a dismal 30.5 percent from beyond the arc.

And if there’s something Central Florida does well, it’s be big. The Knights are among the tallest teams in the nation, including 7-foot-6 gatekeeper Tacko Fall, who plugs up the middle and forces opponents to the outside.

In fact, Duke and UCF look very similar on the defensive end. Both teams have shot-blocking/shot-changing interior defenses, and both plug up the passing lanes while getting their hands on any lazy flat passes.

It may seem too easy, but I’ve got to think Under in this one. Duke remains the best Under bet in basketball, with all that firepower skewing the total for what is a premier defensive team, and Central Florida had stayed Under in four straight before playing Over versus VCU Friday.

I’m betting Under 143 Sunday.

NO. 12 LIBERTY FLAMES VS NO. 4 VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES

Odds: VT -9, 126
Start Time: 7:10 p.m. ET, SAP Center, San Jose, California

At first glance, this is a matchup between two of the slowest-paced teams in the land, with Liberty and Virginia Tech ranking Top 17 in lowest tempos. And we’re seeing that in this diminutive total of 126 points.

However, if you peel back the layers on these programs you see an offensive shootout just about ready to boil over – Over the total that is. Ha ha ha…

Liberty is one of the most efficient offenses in the country and shoots a blistering 37 percent from deep. The Flames buried 12 triples in the upset win over Mississippi State and record an average of 8.5 3-point buckets an outing.

The Hokies are just as dangerous from distance, shooting 39.4 percent from downtown (8th best in the country) and tally 9.4 3-pointers per outing. Virginia Tech attempted only 10 shots from the perimeter in the win over Saint Louis Friday – making four – but didn’t have to lean on those long-range shots, scoring plenty in transition off 18 forced turnovers.

Given that these two teams can catch fire from deep, I see excellent value in the Over 126 Sunday night.
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Posted : March 24, 2019 8:29 am

shazman

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Sunday's odds and best bets for West Region Round 2
Brandon DuBreuil

Only one Round of 32 game in the West Region on Sunday but it should be a good one as Buffalo and Texas Tech — two teams that looked very good in their first-round wins — look to advance to the Sweet 16. We break down the odds and total while giving predictions and best bets.

(6) Buffalo Bulls vs (3) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Odds: Texas Tech -3.5, 146
Start time: 6:10 p.m. ET, Bank of Oklahoma Center, Tulsa

Like I said on Friday: If you haven’t seen Buffalo play yet this season, you are missing out. This team moves fast and scores in buckets. The Bulls play with the 10th fastest pace in the nation per KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo metric and average 85 points per game, fourth-most in the NCAA. That offense was on full display on Friday as the Bulls dropped 91 points on 51.7 percent shooting against Arizona State.

Buffalo will be challenged by Texas Tech’s stingy defense. It’s the Red Raiders’ biggest strength as they hold opponents to 59.2 points per game (third-best in the nation) on 36.9 percent shooting (second-best in the nation).

So which side are you on? Great offense or great defense? Well, there’s a little more to it.

Buffalo also has a very good defense, ranked 28th in the country in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency metric. The Bulls also take care of the ball, giving it away just 11.8 times per game — and Texas Tech thrives on taking the ball away with 15.7 steals per game.

Finally, let’s talk experience. Buffalo has eight seniors on its roster — including its three top scorers — and they know what it’s like to win in the tournament as an underdog after upsetting Arizona in the first round last season. Texas Tech’s roster has nine freshmen or sophomores, though it should be noted that those second-year players got some tournament experience in the Red Raiders’ run to the Elite Eight last season.

I also like that the Bulls have played tough competition this season. In their pre-conference schedule, they played at West Virginia (99-94 win), at Syracuse (71-59 win) and at Marquette (103-85 loss). That win at Syracuse really catches my eye as the Orange always have a tough defense.

I’ve said since the bracket was released that Buffalo was going to win at least two games in the tournament — and that was always assuming it would see Texas Tech in Round 2 — and I’m sticking with that. Take the points and back Buffalo at +3.5.

Looking to the total, this one’s pretty simple as I believe there is serious correlation here. If Buffalo is to win, it’s likely because it gets Texas Tech off its game by turning it into a shootout. If that happens, this game goes way Over the total and that’s where my money is going.

The opposite is also true: If Texas Tech is to win it will likely do so by shutting the Bulls down. If that happens, this game goes Under. So if you’re fading my Buffalo pick, you might consider putting a few bucks on the Under as well.
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Posted : March 24, 2019 8:31 am

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NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, March 24

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OKLAHOMA (20 - 13) vs. VIRGINIA (30 - 3) - 3/24/2019, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
VIRGINIA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
VIRGINIA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
VIRGINIA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
VIRGINIA is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OKLAHOMA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
OKLAHOMA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
OKLAHOMA is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
OKLAHOMA is 15-8 ATS (+6.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VIRGINIA is 42-63 ATS (-27.3 Units) in March games since 1997.