Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.
NFL’s best teams in turnover ratio:
+17— Bills, Steelers
+11— Chargers
+10— Bears, Texans
+9— Packers
+8— Lions, Vikings
+4— Eagles, Commanders
Quote of the Day
“If you think nobody cares about you, try missing a couple of payments.”
Steven Wright
Tuesday’s quiz
Where did Kevin Durant play his one year of college basketball?
Monday’s quiz
Terry Collins was manager of the Mets last time they were in the World Series, in 2015.
Sunday’s quiz
Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel has played college football for two other schools; Central Florida and Oklahoma.
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Tuesday’s Den: Early notes, trends on bowl games…….
Early notes, thoughts, trends on bowl games:
— If you’re betting on bowl games, pay attention to the news:
Which coaches have moved on to other jobs
Which players are injured
Which players (if any) have opted out of playing
Weather
— If I was a kid playing in a bowl, my preference would be warm weather; in other words, almost anywhere other than Boise, Boston or the Bronx.
— This is the first year of the 12-team playoff; four games will be played at campus sites December 20-21. What impact will campus sites have on the games? Won’t be as many students around, with the games so close to Christmas.
— Will the teams who have first round byes have an advantage in second round games? Again, there is no road map for this, since this is the first year with this format.
Arizona State, Boise State, Georgia, Oregon have the first round byes.
— Biggest spreads in bowls:
Florida -12 vs Tulane
Ole Miss -11.5 vs Duke
Alabama -11.5 vs Michigan
Clemson +11 @ Texas
South Carolina -10.5 vs Illinois
Army -10.5 vs Marshall
TCU -10 vs Louisiana
SMU +9 @ Penn State
Pittsburgh -9 vs Toledo
— Highest totals in bowls:
68.5- North Texas-Texas State
62.5- South Florida-San Jose State
60.5- Baylor-LSU
60.5- Syracuse-Washington State
59.5- Texas Tech-Arkansas
59.5- South Alabama-Western Michigan
59.5- TCU-Louisiana
59.5- NC State-East Carolina
58.5- Coastal Carolina-Tex-San Antonio
— Lowest totals in bowls:
40.5- Iowa-Missouri
42.5- Northern Illinois-Fresno State
43.5- Miami OH-Colorado State
43.5- Alabama-Michigan
44.5- Oklahoma-Navy
45.5- Boston College-Nebraska
46.5- Georgia Southern-Sam Houston State
47.5- Tennessee-Ohio State
— Famous birthdays, December 10:
Susan Dey, 72
Mark Aguirre, 65
Bryant Stith, 54
Carlos Rodon, 32
Nestor Cortes, 30
Joe Burrow, 28
— North Carolina-UConn, Fenway Bowl
Tar Heels fired 73-year old Mack Brown, who won’t coach this game; Brown led UNC to bowls the last six years, going 44-33, but lost his last four bowls.
Adding to the intrigue is news that North Carolina is talking with 72-year old Bill Belichick about being the Tar Heels’ next coach, even though he has never coached in college.
With the game being played in Boston, that only adds to the drama.
— UNLV coach Barry Odom has already bolted to Purdue, which is 5-19 the last two years. Odom was 19-8 the last two years at UNLV; there is debate as to whether Purdue is a better job than UNLV, big fish/small pond and all that……..
Rebels are playing the Cal Bears in the LA Bowl; UNLV’s QB quit the team after three games this year, now their coach has moved on to greener pa$ture$. Not ideal.
— Dowell Loggains was South Carolina’s offensive coordinator; now he is Appalachian State’s head coach. Gamecocks are a double digit favorite over Illinois in their bowl game.
— Duke running backs coach Willie Simmons is the new head coach at Florida International; he was 45-13 as head coach at Florida A&M before moving to Duke this past year. His departure could be a distraction to a Duke team that is an 11.5-point underdog to Ole Miss.
— Marshall is 10-3 this season, winning the Sun Belt championship, but the administration at Marshall didn’t get long well with coach Charles Huff, so Huff has bolted to Southern Miss.
Marshall is a 10-point underdog to Army in their bowl game.
— Ohio U is 30-10 the last three years; they won the MAC championship Saturday, but quickly lost coach Tim Albin, who bolted to Charlotte. Ohio is favored by 1.5 points over Jacksonville State in their bowl game; Albin misses out on a trip to Orlando.
— Good news: Sam Houston State is 9-3 in its second year as a I-A team.
Bad news: Temple poached Sam Houston’s coach, 65-year old KC Keeler, who is 271-112-1 as a head coach at multiple levels of college ball.
Bearkats are a 5.5-point underdog to Georgia Southern in their bowl game.
NCAAB Tuesday, December 10 Trend Report
NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday, December 10
5 of Tuesday’s best college basketball games:
Miami vs Tennessee (-16.5) (@ Madison Square Garden)
Miami (3-6)
KenPom rating: 100
Tempo: 288
Experience: 15
Continuity: 243
Miami lost its last six games, four of them by 7 or less points.
Hurricanes are 0-5 vs top 100 teams (1-4 ATS)
Miami’s three wins are all vs teams outside top 300.
Hurricanes have #273 eFG% defense in country.
ACC neutral/road underdogs are 15-21 ATS.
Tennessee (8-0)
KenPom rating: 2
Tempo: 282
Experience: 26
Continuity: 149
Tennessee has three top 100 wins, by 22-15-26 points.
Vols have #5 eFG% defense in country, #2 eFG% offense.
Tennessee is shooting 63.7% inside arc (#1)
77-62 win over #17 Baylor is their closest game this year.
SEC neutral/road favorites are 19-13 ATS
Penn State @ Rutgers (-1.5)
Penn State (8-1, 1-0)
KenPom rating: 33
Tempo: 25
Experience: 60
Continuity: 27
Penn State won its Big 18 opener, 81-70 over #13 Purdue
Lions are 1-1 vs top 100 teams (lost 75-67 to #19 Clemson)
Penn State is forcing turnovers 24.5% of time (#5)
Lions have #10 eFG% in country, vs schedule #297
This is Penn State’s first true road game.
Rutgers (5-4, 0-1)
KenPom rating: 74
Tempo: 63
Experience: 206
Continuity: 307
Rutgers lost its Big 18 opener, 80-66 at Ohio State
Scarlet Knights are 1-3 vs top 100 teams.
Rutgers’ best win: 85-84 in OT over #79 Notre Dame.
Scarlet Knights are 1-3 in games decided by 5 or fewer points.
Rutgers has played schedule #73 so far.
These teams split their last eight meetings.
MIchigan (-4.5) vs Arkansas (@ Madison Square Garden)
MIchigan (8-1)
KenPom rating: 22
Tempo: 108
Experience: 101
Continuity: 277
Michigan won two conference games last week, by 2-3 points.
Wolverines are 4-0 vs top 100 teams.
Michigan’s only loss: 72-70 to #109 Wake Forest.
Wolverines are turning ball over 21.4% of time (#335)
Michigan has #22 eFG%, the #8 eFG% defense.
Big 18 road/neutral favorites are 11-10 ATS
Arkansas (7-2)
KenPom rating: 45
Tempo: 77
Experience: 237
Continuity: 338
Arkansas is 2-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 5-13 points (Baylor/Illinois)
Hogs’ best win: 76-60 over #96 Lipscomb.
Arkansas is shooting 58.3% inside arc (#27)
Hogs are #8 team in country on defensive boards.
SEC neutral/road underdogs are 15-9 ATS
Wisconsin @ Illinois (-6.5)
Wisconsin (8-2, 0-1)
KenPom rating: 37
Tempo: 195
Experience: 33
Continuity: 80
Wisconsin lost its last two games, by 3-14 points.
Badgers lost Big 18 opener, 67-64 at home vs Michigan
Badgers are 3-2 vs top 100 teams.
Wisconsin’s best win: 103-88 over #29 Arizona.
Badgers lost only true road game, 88-74 at Marquette
Illinois (6-2, 0-1)
KenPom rating: 16
Tempo: 39
Experience: 311
Continuity: 345
Illini lost its Big 18 opener in OT at #59 Northwestern
Illinois is 1-2 vs top 100 teams (schedule #241)
Illini’s best win: 90-77 over #45 Arkansas
Illinois has the best eFG% defense in country.
Illinois won its last eight games with Wisconsin.
Long Beach State @ San Diego (-3.5)
Long Beach State (3-8)
KenPom rating: 305
Tempo: 304
Experience: 213
Continuity: 348
Long Beach won two Big West tilts LW, after an 0-8 skid.
Long Beach is 2-3 vs teams ranked outside top 200
Long Beach’s best win: 76-68 vs #201 Hawai’i
Long Beach is shooting only 44.2% inside arc (#331)
Long Beach is 0-3 vs WCC teams, losing by 30-2-43 points.
Big West road underdogs are 19-16 ATS.
San Diego (3-6)
KenPom rating: 291
Tempo: 8
Experience: 354
Continuity: 204
San Diego lost five of last six D-I games.
San Diego is shooting 24.1% on arc (#362)
Toreros are turning ball over 20.4% of time (#314)
Toreros are 2-3 vs teams ranked outside top 200 teams.
WCC home favorites are 19-19 ATS