Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 12/18/19
Wednesday, December 18
Tennessee is 7-2 vs schedule #188; Vols split four top 100 games, losing to Florida State/Memphis by total of 7 points— this is their first true road game. Tennessee have #4 eFG% defense in country; teams are shooting only 38% inside arc vs Vols (#3)- their best wins are over VCU, Washington. Cincinnati has new coach, is 6-4 vs schedule #147; five of their last seven games were decided other by one point or in OT. Bearcats are turning ball over 21.6% of time (#281)- they lost last game at home to Colgate. Cincy hasn’t missed NCAA’s since 2010.
East Tennessee State is 7-2 vs schedule #268, losing only top 150 game by 12 at Kansas; Bucs are experience team #42 that is 109-41 last 4+ years- they’ve made 37.6% of their 3’s (#60), have #15 eFG% in country. ETSU’s best two wins are over Sun Belt teams (App State/Little Rock). LSU won its last four games, is 7-2 vs schedule #49; Tigers are experience team #327 that plays USC at Staples Center Saturday. LSU lost two of three top 100 games, losing to Utah State/VCU- their best win is over #81 Rhode Island. Tigers are shooting 61.9% inside arc (#2).
Buffalo won four of last five games with Canisius, beating them last two years by 5-15 points; Griffins lost last three visits to UB, by 35-2-5 points. Buffalo got upset by 15-point underdog Army Saturday; they’re 5-4 vs schedule #97, forcing turnovers 21.9% of time (#69) while playing 3rd-fastest tempo in country. Canisius is coached by former Buffalo coach Witherspoon; they’re 5-4 vs schedule #279, turning ball over 22.6% of time (#308), shooting 29.7% (#278) on arc. Bulls split their two top 200 games, beating St Bonaventure by 4, losing to Hofstra by 7.
St Bonaventure lost to Niagara last two years, by 2-8 points, after winning previous six series games. Bonnies won last four games after a 1-4 start; they’re experience team #329 that has struggled on offense, with #244 eFG% while playing pace #339- they’re 4-0 when they score more than 65 points. Niagara changed coaches during preseason; they’re 2-6 vs schedule #186- they beat Colgate in OT, before Colgate won at Cincinnati. Purple Eagles are 1-2 vs top 200 foes, losing by 47 at Rutgers, by 9 at a SF Austin team that won at Duke.
Home side won both Illinois State-UIC games last two years; Flames lost by point in Normal two years ago, Redbirds lost by 19 in Chicago LY. Ill-Chicago is 3-7 vs schedule #187, turning ball over 24.7% of time (#339)- they’re 2-3 vs teams ranked outside top 200- their best win was by 6 over #184 San Diego. Illinois State lost six of last seven games; they’re 3-6 vs schedule #82, 1-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Redbirds are continuity team #309 that is making 40.4% of its 3’s (#16), getting 37.4% of their points on arc (#57).
Richmond lost its last three games with Old Dominion, by 3-19-9 points. Spiders won their last four games, are 9-1 vs schedule #250, with only true road game an 80-63 win at #292 Hampton. Richmond is making 41.5% of their 3’s (#8), are getting 39.7% of their points on arc (#24)- they have #6 eFG% in country. ODU lost its last seven games, is 3-8 vs schedule #74; they’ve won 51 games last two years. Monarchs lost their three top 100 games, by 5-12-14 points; their eFG% is #324. ODU is shooting 28.4% on arc (#314), 43.6% inside arc (#316), 64.6% on line (#306).
South Florida won its last three games, is 6-4 vs schedule #292; Bulls won their only top 100 game, by 10 over Furman. Bulls are forcing turnovers 26.8% of time (#3) but are also turning ball over 23.4% of time (#326); they’re a top 20 rebounding team in country. USF is #345 in country on foul line (59%). Utah State is 10-2 vs schedule #282 after losing by 4 to BYU in last game; their only two losses are to top 50 teams (Saint Mary’s/BYU). Aggies are experience team #133 that gets 23.4% of its points on foul line (#23).
Michigan State won its last ten games with Northwestern, winning last four visits to Evanston, by 14-24-31-5 points. Spartans won last two games, are disappointing 7-3 vs schedule #20; they won their only true road game, by 3 at Seton Hall. MSU is experience team #265 that that has #33 eFG% defense, but they’re only shooting 31.3% on arc (#224). Northwestern is 5-4 vs #206 schedule; Wildcats are experience team #303- one of their best players was a lacrosse player in the Patriot League the last few years. NWern is 1-2 in top 100 games, wth losses by 13-14 points.
Louisiana won nine of last 13 games with Arkansas State , winning last two visits to Jonesboro, by 10-3 points; Ragin’ Cajuns lost three of last four games overall, are 0-4 in true road games, losing three times by 12+ points with an OT loss at Wyoming mixed in. Louisiana won four of five games vs teams ranked outside top 200. ASU is 6-3 vs schedule #264; they’re 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200, with three wins by 13+ points. Red Wolves are 3-0 in games decided by 5 or fewer points; their eFG% defense is #308 in country.
North Carolina is without freshman star Anthony (knee) who is out 4-6 weeks; Tar Heels lost last three games, scoring 49-47-64 points. UNC players (other than Anthony) are shooting 25% on arc for season. Tar Heels have #309 eFG% in country; worst they’ve been in last five years was #124. Gonzaga won its last three games, winning AT Washington/Arizona in last two; they are 11-1 vs schedule #215. Zags are #331 continuity team that won its three top 100 games, by 1-7-4 points; they’re shooting 38.3% on arc (#29), 55.5% inside arc (#20).
Saint Mary’s is 10-2 vs schedule #91; they’re 2-1 vs top 100 teams, beating Wisconsin/Utah State, losing by 10 to Dayton. Gaels are experience team #91 that is making 43.8% of its 3’s (#1)- they’ve got #22 eFG% while playing pace #334- they beat Cal of Pac-12 in last game. Arizona State won its last five games, is 8-2 vs schedule #137; they’re forcing turnovers 24% of time (#26), are 3-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 10 to Colorado in China, by 3 at Virginia. Sun Devils won by 4 at San Francisco in their only WCC game this season.
UNLV is 4-7 vs schedule #141; they haven’t played in 11 days. Rebels are 1-7 vs top 200 teams, with only win in double OT at Fresno State. UNLV is turning ball over 22.4% of time (#304); three of their losses came in OT. Rebels beat Pacific the last two years by 5-26 points; they’re not a deep team (bench minutes #288) which has hurt them in close games. Pacific won its last five games, is 9-3 vs schedule #349; Tigers are 0-3 vs top 200 teams though, losing by 10-5-6 points- their last loss was in triple OT to Boise State. Pacific plays slow (#345) pace.
Kentucky won its last six games, is 8-1, albeit vs schedule #339; Wildcats are in Las Vegas for the week- they play Ohio State Saturday, but better not look past this game. Kentucky won both its top 100 games, beating Kentucky by 7, Ga Tech by 14; this is their first game outside of Lexington since Nov 5. Utah is experience team #352 that won its last four games, is 8-2 vs schedule #277, winning all three of their top 100 games. Utes beat rival BYU in OT after trailing by 16 with 13:44 left; they’re shooting 59.8% inside arc (#4), have #13 eFG% in country.
Wednesday's Tip Sheet
David Schwab
A pair of late starts out west highlight Wednesday’s college basketball betting matchups. First up, the Gonzaga Bulldogs will play host to the North Carolina Tar Heels. In one of two late-night starts, the Utah Runnin’ Utes tangle with the Kentucky Wildcats in Las Vegas.
North Carolina at No. 2 Gonzaga (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Gonzaga -11, Total 145.5
Betting Matchup
The ACC’s Tar Heels have tumbled out of the national rankings following Sunday’s stunning 68-64 loss to Wofford as 11 ½-point home favorites. This followed losses to Ohio State and Virginia both straight-up and against the spread.
North Carolina is now 1-4 SU in its last five games after starting the season with five SU wins. It is a woeful 2-8 ATS overall with the total staying UNDER in nine of its first 10 games. Injuries have been the big story in Chapel Hill. Starters’ Cole Anthony (knee) and Leaky Black (foot) missed Sunday’s game. Anthony remains out indefinitely.
The Bulldogs are headed the other way up the national rankings after winning 11 of their first 12 games SU. They have also covered in their last three outings to improve to 7-4-1 ATS.
The went OVER 150 ½ points in Saturday’s 84-80 upset over Arizona as slight two-point road underdogs. The total has gone OVER in Gonzaga’s last six games while scoring an average of 83.2 points per game. Overall, the Bulldogs are ranked fifth in the nation in scoring with 85.8 points per game. This West Coast Conference power has seven different players averaging at least 10 PPG.
Betting Trends
-- The Tar Heels are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the WCC and the total has stayed UNDER in their last five December games.
-- The Bulldogs have covered the spread in their last seven games played in December. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 11 games against the ACC.
-- North Carolina has the 3-1 edge both SU and ATS in the last four meetings. This includes last season’s 103-90 victory as a three-point home favorite. The total went OVER 174 ½ points in that game.
No. 6 Kentucky vs. Utah (ESPN2, 11:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Kentucky -11.5, Total 139
Betting Matchup
Utah, out of the Pac-12 comes into the Neon Hoops Showcase in Las Vegas with a SU four-game winning streak as part of an 8-2 record overall. It has covered in its last three outings to improve to 6-4 ATS. The total stayed UNDER 143 points in Saturday’s 60-49 victory against Weber State as nine-point favorites after going OVER in four of the Utes’ previous five games.
Timmy Allen has scored 19 points in each of his last two games and the sophomore forward leads the team in scoring with an average of 20.6 PPG. Utah is averaging 83.0 points a game.
The SEC’s Wildcats have quietly worked their way back up the national rankings at 8-1 SU after starting the season with an upset over Michigan State as three-point underdogs. The only blemish was a bad loss to Evansville as heavy 25-point favorites.
Kentucky has fallen to 3-5-1 ATS after failing to cover in six of its last seven games. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the nine games. Junior forward Nick Richards is averaging a team-high 13.8 PPG. He is one of five Wildcats averaging at least 10 points a game.
Betting Trends
-- The Utes have a 6-1 record ATS in seven previous games against a SEC team. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last seven Wednesday games.
-- The Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games and the total has gone OVER in four of their last five Pac-12 matchups.
-- Kentucky rolled to an 88-61 victory over Utah last season as 15 ½-point favorites. The Wildcats are 7-0 SU and ATS in seven previous meetings dating back to 1996. The total has gone OVER in two of the last three matchups.
Miller locks
6:30 pm est ncaab
stony brook vs. Virginia
pick: Stony brook +17 (-109)
risk: 11 units
7:00 pm est ncaab
canisius vs. Buffalo
pick: Buffalo -8 (-113)
risk: 11 units
11:00 pm est ncaab
kentucky vs. Utah u
pick: Utah u +11.5 (-112)
risk: 11 units
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Larry Hartstein
Dec NBA ATS 15-11
SENIOR ANALYST
11:07 AM
WASHINGTON -1.5
CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON | 12/18 | 7:00 PM EST
Isaiah Thomas scored 23 points in his return from a calf strain last time out, and I like him to keep it going against the visiting Bulls on Wednesday. Chicago just blew a 26-point lead in a loss to OKC. Back Washington to cover the small number.
28-15-1 IN LAST 44 NBA ATS PICKS | +1157
37-16-2 IN LAST 55 CHI ATS PICKS | +1956
3-1 IN LAST 4 WAS ATS PICKS | +189
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WUnderdog
NBA
golden state +10 v portland
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GREG SHAKER | CBB TOTAL WED, 12/18/19 - 7:45 PM
692 South Florida / 691 Utah St. Over 128.0 Pinnacle
double-dime bet
Analysis:
2* Play at your best number OVER...
3* CBB Total is coming a bit later..
Pick Made: Dec 18 2019 7:14AM PST
GREG SHAKER | CBB TOTAL WED, 12/18/19 - 7:00 PM
658 LSU / 657 ETSU Over 149.5 Westgate
dime bet
Analysis:
1* OVER at your best number..
Pick Made: Dec 18 2019 8:05AM PST
GREG SHAKER | CBB TOTAL WED, 12/18/19 - 9:00 PM
698 Ariz. St / 697 St. Mary's (Cal.) Under 137.5 Southpoint
dime bet
Analysis:
1* UNDER at youŒr best number..
Pick Made: Dec 18 2019 8:34AM PST
GREG SHAKER | CBB TOTAL WED, 12/18/19 - 11:00 PM
686 Utah / 685 Kentucky Under 139.0 Bookmaker
triple-dime bet
Analysis:
We use 3 CBB Models, all developed differently to pick different ways. They help us SPOT Potential Totals and all 3 have agreed that this number is too high. It is not the only thing we use but it is a starting point. We also use techniques that as far as I know have not yet been discovered by others including books. While these are not fail proof techniques they have been very profitable over the last few years. We also use offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, pace, projected pace, venue trends, league and division trends, injuries, along with other more "Standard" Handicapping Principles to get our final number and possibly make a play rated at 1* 2* and 3*.
Final game on the card with an 11pm ET Start time and it is at the neutral site. (Las Vegas) We love the UNDER here although about 70% to 75% of the tickets are on the Over. For now there is virtually no number movement to speak of but it would not surprise me to see it go upward a tic or two. It is time to get this one out to you guys. Both teams play slower than normal pace and both have very good OE (OffensiŒve Efficiency) However they each play solid defense as well. Being the Neutral site we note that both teams are 4-1 UNDER last 5 in this situation. Kentucky has been a solid UNDER proposition at 19-7 UNDER last 26 times on the court. Our 3 Models love this one and frankly it has the feel of a low scoring contest as well with neither team that familiar with this arena. Let's Play 3* here at your best number.
Pick Made: Dec 18 2019 9:15AM PST
GREG SHAKER | CBB TOTAL WED, 12/18/19 - 8:00 PM
672 Syracuse / 671 Oakland, Mich Under 130.5 Southpoint
dime bet
Analysis:
Œ1* Play at your best number UNDER
Pick Made: Dec 18 2019 9:19AM PST
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